Tight Asian range at 50% retrace, inside 4245–4288 range.
Thursday's London sell-off on a firm USD and elevated yields hit the 4245.0 day low, and NY retested it before the 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.5 spike high was rejected. Early Friday Asia is compressing in a 4267.8–4276.0 range right at the 50% fib of the 4303–4245 drop, above a 4256.3 higher low, with RSI(14) flat at 53.
Support: 4,267.80, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,276.00, 4,281.60, 4,288.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4276.0 asia high opens the 4281.6 swing high, which aligns with the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 4267.8 asia low exposes the 4256.3 higher low, then the 4245.0 day low
Acceptance above the 4288.5 spike high would negate the post-spike rejection
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Range after Thursday's selloff, compressing · RSI 53 · price 4,271.46
Lower highs from 4288.54 spike, higher low at 4264.44; tight Asian range.
Thursday's London-NY slide from 4303 set a double low near 4245. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.54 spike high was rejected, leaving lower highs at 4281.64 and a higher low at 4264.44, as firm yields and a bid USD kept gold heavy. Early Asia is compressing inside a 4267.84–4275.47 Asian range near the 38.2% fib of that spike, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 4,267.84, 4,264.44, 4,256.27
Resistance: 4,275.47, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.47 asian high and the lower-high line opens 4281.64, then the 4288.54 spike high
Break of the 4264.44 higher low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4261.5 and the 4256.27 swing low
Failure to hold the ~4245 double low confirms a lower-low at the one-week low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Neutral, coiling after rebound off lows · RSI 52 · price 4,273.34
Higher lows from double bottom, compressing under session high.
Early Asia session: gold is coiling between the 4264.4 swing low and the 4275.5 session high after NY rebounded from the 4244 double bottom. Higher lows at 4256.3 and 4264.4 sit on a rising trendline. A firm USD and 10y yields above 5.1% drove Thursday's slide to the one-week low; RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,275.47, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.5 session high puts the 4281.6 swing high and the 4288.5 spike high back in play
Price is holding just above the 38.2% of the bounce fib (~4271.8); losing the 4264.4 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4256.3 higher low
Failure at 4256.3 reopens the 4244 double bottom
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:03 UTC
Rebounding from lows, now compressing · RSI 53 · price 4,273.65
Higher lows off 4245 double bottom, capped below 4288.
London sold gold to a 4245 double btm as yields and the USD pushed higher. The NY retest of 4244.79 met demand and squeezed to the ny high at 4288.54, followed by a higher low at 4256.27 and a swing low at 4264.44. Early Asia session is compressing in a tight 4268–4275 range, below the 4281.64 swing high and around the 38.2% retracement of the NY rebound.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4288.54 ny high completes the double btm and clears the NY spike
Failure to hold the 4264.44 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward 4256.27
Loss of the 4244.79 double btm reopens the London selloff lows
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Flat after London-led selloff, higher lows since · RSI 51 · price 4,271.40
Higher lows off 4245, compressing under 4276 cap.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.7 and slid to the 4245 day low as yields and USD firmed. A second hold at 4245 was followed by a NY-hours spike to 4288.5 that met rejection. Since then price has printed higher lows along the rising trendline and is compressing between the 4264.4 swing low and the 4275.9 session cap, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4303–4245 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 in thin early Asia trade.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,275.90, 4,281.60, 4,288.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4264.4 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4256.3 higher low, then the 4245 day low
M15 close above the 4275.9 session cap opens the 4281.6 swing high near the 61.8% fib, then the 4288.5 spike high
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:33 UTC
Range-bound after sell-off, compressing · RSI 53 · price 4,272.84
Lower highs and higher lows off a 4245 double bottom, pennant apex forming.
London broke the Asian range low near 4273.7, and a double bottom formed at the 4245 day low across London and NY as 5%+ yields and a firm USD weighed. NY's spike high at 4288.54 met rejection. Since then a lower high at 4281.64 and a higher low at 4264.44, above the 4256.27 ny swing low, have squeezed price into a pennant under the 4275.9 range cap as the Asia session opens.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,275.90, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.9 range cap and the pennant resistance line opens the lower high at 4281.64, then the spike high at 4288.54
Failure to hold the 4264.44 higher low breaks pennant support and exposes the ny swing low at 4256.27
Loss of the 4244.79 day low negates the double bottom read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
4264–4276 compression under lower highs, double-bottom base at 4245.
Gold built a double bottom at the 4245 day low during London and NY as 5%+ yields and a firm USD kept pressure on. The 4288.5 spike high was rejected, and price has since compressed between the 4264 swing low and the 4276 range cap under lower highs. Friday's Asia session has just opened at 4270, retracing about 40% of the 4245–4288.5 spike retrace leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,275.88, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.9 range cap and the lower-highs trendline opens 4281.6 (lower high), then the 4288.5 spike high
Failure to hold the 4264.4 swing low exposes the 4256.3 NY low and the 4245 day low (double bottom base)
Friday's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could break the range once London/NY open
22:03 UTC
Range after London sell-off, compressing · RSI 56 · price 4,273.94
Lower highs from 4288.54 against higher lows from 4244.79; symmetrical squeeze near 4270.
London broke the 4273.74 Asian range low. Firm USD and yields after the claims beat carried price to a 4245 day low, which held twice in NY for a double bottom. The 17:15 UTC spike to the 4288.54 spike high was rejected, and after NY close price is coiling near 4270 between a descending trendline and a rising trendline from the day low.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.64 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 4288.54 spike high, then the 4303.26 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4264.44 swing low undermines the rising trendline and exposes the 4256.27 higher low and the 4245 day low
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Range after NY rebound, contracting · RSI 56 · price 4,273.94
Lower highs vs higher lows since the NY spike high.
London broke below the Asian range and set a 4244.5 session low. NY rebounded off that level to a 4288.5 spike high, but the spike high was rejected on hawkish Fedspeak, the claims beat and 10y yields above 5.1%. Late NY, price is coiling between a 4281.6 lower high and a 4264.4 swing low, with the 4256.3 higher low near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the NY rebound fib; RSI(14) mid-50s, price back above EMA20/50.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,244.50
Resistance: 4,281.60, 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.6 lower high breaks the descending resistance line and exposes the 4288.5 spike high
Loss of the 4264.4 swing low and the 4256.3 higher low reopens the 4244.5 session low
Acceptance back above 4288.5 targets the Asian high at 4303.3
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Range-bound after London slide, lows rising · RSI 56 · price 4,273.94
4245–4288 range; double bottom at day low, higher lows into NY close.
After the yield- and USD-led London slide, gold printed a double bottom at the 4245 day low and has since stacked higher lows at the 4256 swing low and the 4264 higher low into the NY close. Price sits at the 50% level of the Asia-high fib, just under the local cap at 4276, with the NY spike high at 4288.5 rejected and the 4281.6 swing high still capping.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,275.88, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.6 swing high and 4288.5 spike high confirms the double bottom
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 4264 higher low reopens the 4256 swing low and 4245 day low
Holding the local cap at 4276 through the daily break keeps price pinned at the Asia-high fib 50% level
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, compressing · RSI 56 · price 4,273.94
Lower highs from 4288.54 against higher lows off the 4245 day low; contracting triangle.
London broke below the Asian range low at 4273.74 and slid to the 4245 day low as a firm USD and 5%+ yields weighed. Demand held 4245 twice, and the NY spike high at 4288.54 faded. Late NY is compressing between a lower high at 4281.64 and the 4264.44 swing low above the 4256.27 higher low, with price near 4274 and RSI(14) neutral around 56.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.64 lower high breaks the compression and brings the 4288.54 spike high into view, then the 4303.26 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4264.44 swing low exposes the 4256.27 higher low
Loss of the 4245 day low voids the double bottom and marks a fresh lower low
Fri: Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling, compressing late NY · RSI 56 · price 4,273.94
Double bottom at 4245 day low, falling highs vs rising lows since the 4288.5 spike.
London broke the Asian range low near 4273.7 and ran to the 4245 day low as yields and the USD firmed. NY retested and held 4245, but the 16:15 UTC spike high at 4288.5 was rejected. Late NY is compressing between rising lows (swing low 4256.3, higher low 4264.4) and falling highs, with price pressing the upper trendline near 4274 below the 4281.6 lower high; RSI(14) ~56.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.64 lower high breaks the falling highs and exposes the 4288.54 spike high, then the 4300 round number
Loss of the 4264.44 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 4256.27 swing low and the 4245 day low back in play
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalled, coiling late NY · RSI 54 · price 4,271.03
Higher lows from 4244.8 against lower highs from 4288.5, contracting pennant.
London broke below the 4273.7–4303.3 Asian range as a firm USD, 5%+ yields, the claims beat and hawkish Fedspeak pressed gold. The metal carved a double bottom at the 4244.8 day low, and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 4288.5 was rejected. Price is now compressing between a rising pennant base near 4264–4267 and a pennant top near 4275, with the 4281.6 swing high and 4256.3 higher low marking the structure either side.
Support: 4,264.44, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,275.88, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.9 pennant top exposes the 4281.6 swing high, then the 4288.5 spike high
Loss of the 4264.4 swing low breaks the pennant base and puts the 4256.3 higher low in play
Break of the 4244.8 day low voids the double bottom read and extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
20:33 UTC
Lower from the Asia high, now compressing · RSI 45 · price 4,266.14
Double bottom at 4245; lower highs meeting higher lows.
London broke the Asian range low near 4273.7 and slid to a 4245 day low, which was retested at 15:00 UTC for a double bottom as yields above 5.1% and a firm USD kept gold heavy. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.5 spike high met rejection. Late NY is now compressing between higher lows near 4256 and a lower high at 4281.6, with price at 4266 on the 50% of that spike and just under a flat EMA20/50.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,275.90, 4,281.60, 4,288.50
What it said to watch
Close below the late NY low at 4264.4 and the higher-low line near 4256 reopens the 4245 day low
Close above the 4275.9 range cap and the 4281.6 lower high breaks the compression, with the 4288.5 spike high above
Thin liquidity around the daily break and the Asia session. Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the main catalysts for a range break
Double bottom near 4245; lower highs vs higher lows since NY spike.
London broke the Asian range (4273.74–4303.26) lower, and the day low double-bottomed near 4245 as 5.1%+ yields and the claims beat kept USD firm. The NY-afternoon spike to 4288.54 met rejection. Price has since compressed between lower highs and higher lows and sits flat on the EMA20/50 cluster near 4269 into the daily close, with RSI(14) ~47.
Support: 4,266.99, 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,275.88, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4275.88 micro high breaks the lower-high sequence. The 4281.64 swing high sits at the 61.8% retracement of the day's drop.
Reclaim of the 4288.54 spike high would confirm the double bottom off 4245.
Loss of the 4266.99 micro low, then the 4256.27 swing low, breaks the higher-low line back toward the 4244.79 day low.
A close below the 4244.79 day low voids the double bottom and clears the ~4250 one-week low.
Asia session carries no scheduled data. Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC Fri) are the next catalysts.
20:03 UTC
Range after London selloff, compressing · RSI 51 · price 4,273.51
Double bottom at 4244, lower highs vs higher lows since the 16:15 UTC spike.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 4274 at London open and slid to a 4244 double bottom as yields and USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.5 spike high met rejection. Late NY is compressing between a 4281.6 lower high and a 4267 higher low, holding above the 61.8% of the spike fib.
Support: 4,267.00, 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.6 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 4288.5 spike high
Failure to hold the 4267 higher low reopens the 4256 swing low, with the 4244 double bottom below
Asian high at 4303 sits just above 4300, which is flagged as broken support turned resistance
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Friday's UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 4,273.65
Double bottom near 4245, higher low at 4256 and lower high at 4281.6.
London broke below the Asian range and NY retested the 4245 low for a double bottom, with 10y yields above 5.1% keeping gold heavy. The NY-session spike to 4288.5 was rejected, and price is now compressing late in NY between a 4256 higher low and a 4281.6 lower high, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,267.00, 4,256.27, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4267 late ny low exposes the 4256 higher low and the rising higher-lows line
Loss of 4256 reopens the 4245 double btm and one-week low
Close above the 4281.6 lower high, then the 4288.5 spike high, clears the double bottom neckline toward the 4303 asian high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Down day, basing into late NY · RSI 53 · price 4,271.66
Double low at 4244, contracting lower highs and higher lows.
London broke below the asian low at 4273.74 and ran to the 4244.29 day low. NY retested it at 4244.79, and the 16:15 UTC spike to 4288.54 met rejection, with gold still heavy on 5%+ yields after the claims beat. Since then a lower high at 4281.64 and a higher low at 4256.27 have squeezed price back under the asian low, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,267.00, 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.64 lower high and 4288.54 spike high would complete the double bottom off 4244
Loss of the 4267 micro low, then the 4256.27 higher low, reopens the 4244.29 day low
Break of either the lower highs or higher lows trendline ends the late-NY compression
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 54 · price 4,269.59
Lower highs from 4288.5 against higher lows off the 4245 double low.
London broke the 4273.7 Asian low and ran to the 4245 double low, printed twice as yields and the claims beat kept gold heavy near the one-week low. The NY spike high at 4288.5 was rejected, and late NY is now coiling between the 4256.3 swing low and the 4281.6 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and the Asian low capping the last three bars.
Support: 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,281.64, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.6 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4288.5 spike high
Failure to hold the 4256.3 swing low exposes the 4245 double low
Acceptance back above the 4273.7 Asian low shifts the compression read higher
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and Friday's UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Range, chop after London selloff · RSI 55 · price 4,271.00
4245–4289 range; higher low at 4256 under a lower high at 4281.64.
Late NY session, gold is mid-range at 4271. London broke the Asian range low and put in a double bottom at the 4245 day low (10:15 and 15:00 UTC). The 16:15 UTC spike to 4288.54 faded as firm yields and strong US claims kept pressure on, and price is now compressing between a higher low at 4256 and a lower swing high at 4281.64.
Support: 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.64 swing high reopens the 4288.54 spike high, then the 4303 asian high and the 4300 area
Failure to hold the 4256 higher low exposes the 4245 day low and the double bottom
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and Friday's 12:30/14:00 UTC durables and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Range after London sell-off, bounce stalling · RSI 55 · price 4,271.40
Double bottom at day low, lower high under spike high.
London broke the Asian range low near 4273.7 as yields above 5.1% weighed, and gold formed a double bottom at the 4244–4245 day low before the 16:15 UTC spike to 4288.5 was rejected well short of the 4300 psych level. Late NY is compressing between a 4256.3 higher low and a 4281.6 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, and the fib to the spike high shows the pullback held beyond the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,281.64, 4,288.54, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4281.6 lower high and 4288.5 spike high reopens 4300 psych, broken support per the digest
Loss of the 4256.3 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 4244 day low back in play
Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double low at 4245, higher low at 4256 inside a 4245–4288 range.
London broke the Asian range low near 4274 and drove to a 4245.0 double low. NY retested that low at 15:00 UTC after the claims beat, then spiked to 4288.5 after London close, where it met rejection. Late in the NY session price is holding a 4256.3 higher low and sits mid-range, with yields above 5.1% keeping gold heavy.
Support: 4,256.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4288.5 spike high confirms the double bottom and opens the 4303.3 asian high
Failure to hold the 4256.3 higher low exposes the 4245.0 double low, near the one-week low
Fri 09:15 UTC Williams and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Range 4245–4288 below the Asian range, double bottom at the lows.
London broke below the Asian range low at 4273.74 and sold into a double bottom near 4245, at the one-week low, while the NY bounce after the 197K claims beat stalled at 4285. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.54 spike high met rejection, and price now sits mid-range off the 4256.27 swing low with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 4,256.27, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4244.79 double bottom breaks the one-week low and the range floor
Failure to hold the 4256.27 swing low puts the 4245 lows back in play
Close above the 4288.54 spike high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 4303.26 Asian high
Fri 09:15 UTC Williams, 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, ranging in late NY · RSI 53 · price 4,264.88
4245–4289 NY range; lower high below spike high, twin lows near 4245.
Gold broke the Asian low at 4273.74 early in London and set a day low at 4244.79, retested at 15:00 UTC, as 5%+ yields and a firm USD weighed. A post-London-close spike to 4288.54 was a false break of the 4285 high and faded to the 50% spike retrace near 4265, leaving a lower high at 4278.74 above the 4257.87 swing low.
Support: 4,257.87, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,278.74, 4,288.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4244.79 day low breaks the twin-low floor near the $4,250 one-week low
Close back above the 4273.74 asian low and the 4278.74 lower high reopens the 4288.54 spike high
Loss of the 4257.87 swing low would put the day low back in play
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC), then Durables and UoM inflation expectations (12:30/14:00 UTC) could reset this range
17:47 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 4,259.37
4245–4288 range after London broke the Asian low; spike high rejected.
Gold broke the Asian range low near 4273.7 early in London and has since held a 4245–4288 range, printing a double bottom at the 4244.8 day low. The 16:15 UTC spike to 4288.5 was fully rejected after London close. Price has retraced about 67% of that spike and sits just above 4250 psych, below the 4271 spike shelf. RSI(14) is 44, with yields above 5.1% keeping the tape heavy.
Support: 4,250.00, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,271.00, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
Close below the 4244.8 day low breaks the double bottom and extends the lower highs
Reclaim of the 4271 spike shelf reopens the 4288.5 spike high, the double-bottom neckline
Asian high at 4303.3 anchors the lower highs line
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Range after London sell-off, lower highs intact · RSI 46 · price 4,263.96
Double low at 4244–4245, spike high rejected, price mid-range.
Gold broke the 4273.74 Asian low in early London and set a double low at 4244–4245 into NY, with firm US data keeping yields and the USD bid. The 16:15 UTC spike to 4288.54 poked above the lower-highs line but faded after London close, leaving price mid-range near 4264, just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 46 and roughly 60% of the spike retraced.
Support: 4,259.30, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4273.74 asian low reopens a test of the 4288.54 spike high
Failure to hold the 4259.30 swing low puts the 4244 double low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the lower-highs line and 4288.54 negates the false break read, with the 4303.26 asian high next above
Friday's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Trump-Xi headlines remain a wildcard
17:17 UTC
Range after London sell-off, lower highs intact · RSI 50 · price 4,267.74
Double low at 4244–4245, spike rejected at 4288.5, mid-range.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.7 and printed a double low at 4244–4245. The 12:30 UTC bounce stalled at 4285 as the jobless claims beat kept the USD bid. A 16:30 UTC spike to the 4288.5 spike high was rejected, and price now sits near the 50% spike fib in late NY, flat against the EMA20/50 cluster.
Support: 4,258.30, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4288.5 spike high breaks the lower highs line and brings the 4303 asian high and the 4300 handle into play
Failure to hold the 4258 spike base reopens the 4244 double low; a break there confirms a lower low
Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 4245, spike high 4288.5 rejected below Asian high.
London broke below the Asian range and NY retested the lows to form a double low near 4245, with a firm USD after the claims beat and 5%+ yields keeping pressure on. A late-NY spike to the 4288.5 spike high was rejected, and price is now sitting on the 38.2% of the spike fib near 4272, just above EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,258.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4288.5 spike high opens the Asian high at 4303.3
Loss of the 4258.3 spike base puts the 4245 double low back in play
Fri: Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off a double low · RSI 49 · price 4,273.71
Double bottom at 4245, 4285 neckline pierced then rejected.
London broke below the Asian low at 4274 and ran to 4245. NY retested that double low as beat-heavy US claims kept the USD bid. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 4288.5 spike high cleared the 4285 neckline and the lower-high line but closed back under both; price is now parked on the asian low, which is also the 50% of the Asian high–double low drop.
Support: 4,273.70, 4,258.30, 4,244.80
Resistance: 4,285.00, 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4285 neckline confirms the double bottom and opens the 4300–4303 asian high
Loss of the 4258 spike base puts the 4245 double low back in play; a close below it voids the double bottom
A repeat push through the 4288.5 spike high that holds would negate the lower-high line
Fri: Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could reset the read after the late-NY/Asia lull
Lower highs from the Asian high; double bottom at 4245; spike high rejected.
London broke below the Asian low at 4273.74 as the claims beat kept yields and the USD bid, and dip-buying formed a double bottom at 4245 in London and again in NY. A late-NY spike base at 4258 launched a run to 4288.54, briefly above the lower-high line, but the spike high was rejected and price is back at the Asian low.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,258.34, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the lower-high line and spike high at 4288.54 opens the Asian high at 4303
Loss of the Asian low at 4273.74, then the spike base at 4258, reopens the double bottom at 4245
Break below the 4245 double bottom resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) Friday could reset the intraday read
16:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off a double bottom · RSI 51 · price 4,268.58
Lower highs from the Asian high, equal lows at 4244-4245.
London broke the Asian low near 4274 and ran to 4244.3 on firm USD and yields. The NY rally after the claims beat stalled at 4285 (ny high), and the second leg down held 4244.8 for an intraday double btm. The mid-NY bounce off a 4252.7 higher low is now testing the 61.8% of the ny drop fib near 4269, just under the old asian low at 4274.
Support: 4,252.70, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,274.30, 4,285.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4274 asian low reclaims the Asian range and targets the 4285 ny high
Close above 4285 breaks the lower highs trendline from the 4303.3 asian high
Loss of the 4252.7 higher low puts the 4244.3 double btm back in play; a break below it resumes the downtrend
No scheduled US data before Friday's Williams remarks and durables; Trump-Xi headlines remain event risk
Lower high at 4285, retest of 4245 session low, bounce capped near 4260.
London broke the asian low at 4273.74 and ran to 4245. The bounce around the 197K claims print stalled at 4285.03, a lower high under the descending trendline from the 4303 Asia peak, and NY sold back to the 4244.79 session low with the USD bid. After London close price is holding above that low but capped at the 38.2% fib near 4260.5, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 890 pips.
Support: 4,250.00, 4,244.79
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 4260.5 reopens the asian low at 4273.74
Break of the 4244.79 session low extends the lower-low chain; 4250 psych is the first shelf above it
Close above the 4285.03 lower high and descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines could land in thin late-NY trade and shift this read
Lower highs from 4303; Asian range broken lower in London; NY retesting the 4244 session low.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.7 and ran to a 4244.3 session low. NY printed a lower high at 4285 after the jobless claims beat kept the USD bid. Price is now mid NY session, back at the session low with RSI(14) near 36 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,240.00
Resistance: 4,262.30, 4,273.74, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4244 session low and the 4240 round number confirms a lower-low extension
A second hold at 4244 leaves a potential double low; reclaiming the 4262 minor pivot (38.2% of the NY leg fib) is needed to shift the read
The asian low at 4273.7 is now overhead; a close above the 4285 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range broken lower; NY lower high at 4285, testing day low.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and ran to 4245. The NY rebound after the jobless claims beat met rejection at 4285, extending the lower-highs sequence from 4303. It has since unwound to a marginal new day low at 4244.79 as the USD and 5%+ yields stay firm. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold, and price holds below the 4255 breakdown area late in the NY session.
Support: 4,244.79, 4,240.00
Resistance: 4,255.00, 4,273.74, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4244.79 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4240 round number
Reclaim of the 4255 breakdown area, then the 4273.74 asian low, would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 4285 ny high breaks the lower-highs line
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) is the next scheduled USD catalyst; Trump-Xi headlines are an unscheduled risk
Lower high at 4285 after London broke the Asian low; retesting the 4245 session low.
London broke the 4273.74 asian low and ran to a 4245.02 session low. The NY-open rebound was rejected at the 4285 ny high, a lower high under the lower highs line. Firm US claims and home-sales beats kept the USD bid, and gold has given back about 80% of the rebound. Price is now pressing the 4250 round number, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 900 pips ($9).
Support: 4,250.00, 4,245.02
Resistance: 4,265.00, 4,273.74, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4245.02 session low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 4265 breakdown shelf would stall the slide back into the 4265–4274 area
M15 close back above the 4273.74 asian low negates the London breakdown read
No US data left in this session; Fri Williams (09:15 UTC) and Durables (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risk
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 36 · price 4,255.71
Asian range broken lower; NY bounce capped at 61.8%, rolling back toward London low.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and ran to the 4245.02 London low. The NY bounce stalled at 4285.03, a lower high near the 61.8% fib, and faded as firm US claims and new home sales kept the USD bid. Price is now back through the 4265 broken low, mid-NY session, below both EMAs, with the 4250 round number just under.
Support: 4,250.00, 4,245.02
Resistance: 4,265.00, 4,273.74, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4245.02 London low extends the lower-low sequence; a hold there sets up a double bottom test
A recovery through the 4265 broken low and the 4273.74 Asian low back into the Asian range neutralises the downtrend read
An M15 close above the 4285.03 lower high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the lower-high structure
No high-impact US data left this session; Trump-Xi summit headlines are the main event risk
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce fading · RSI 46 · price 4,262.18
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; NY rebound capped below the Asian high.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and ran to 4244.29 as blowout PMIs kept yields and the USD bid. The NY bounce stalled at 4285.03, near the 61.8% fib of the 4303–4244 downleg, and price has faded back to the 4260.58 NY low. It now trades below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46 and the lower-high trendline intact.
Support: 4,260.58, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,285.03, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4260.58 NY low exposes the 4244.29 London low
Reclaiming the 4273.74 Asian low shifts the read back toward the 4285.03 NY high
M15 close above 4285.03 breaks the lower-high trendline and the 61.8% fib cap
Trump-Xi meeting headlines today could jolt gold intraday
London low at 4244, higher lows since; lower high at 4285, now below Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low near 4274 and ran to 4244.29 as blowout US PMIs and 10y yields above 5.1% kept the dollar bid. The rebound was rejected at 4285.03 in the London-NY transition, and the early NY pullback is holding 4264.83, roughly the 50% of the recovery fib, with price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 4,264.83, 4,252.03, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,274.28, 4,285.03, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4264.83 pullback low and the rising support line exposes the 4252 higher low, then the 4244.29 london low
M15 close back above the 4274 asian low reopens the 4285 swing high; only a move through 4303 asian high restores the pre-London range
Trump-Xi headlines today and Williams Fri 09:15 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, rebound capped.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and ran to a session low of 4244.29, with the USD bid on hot PMIs and 10y yields above 5% still in play. The NY rebound stalled at the 4285.03 rebound high, just past the 61.8% fib, and has faded back below the Asian low. Price is now pressing the NY low at 4264.83 under the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 4,264.83, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,285.03, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 4273.74 reopens the 4285.03 rebound high and 61.8% fib zone
Failure to hold the NY low at 4264.83 exposes the 4244.29 session low and extends the lower-low chain
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the 4303.26 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4245 London low, capped at broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 4274 and extended to a 4245 session low as hot US data and 5%+ yields weighed. Price then built a higher-low chain along the rebound trendline, but the post-claims NY-open pop stalled at the 4285 NY high and faded back under the Asian low. RSI(14) is flat near 50, with price holding the 38.2% level of the rebound fib and a 4267.5 higher low underneath.
Support: 4,267.50, 4,260.30, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,274.00, 4,285.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 4274 reopens the 4285 NY high; failure there keeps the retest read as a rejection
Break of the 4267.5 higher low and the rebound trendline exposes fib 61.8 near 4260, then the London low at 4245
Acceptance above the NY high at 4285 brings the 4303 Asian high into view
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Rebound off London low, stalling · RSI 54 · price 4,275.39
Higher lows since 4244, capped at 4285 NY high.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and ran to a 4244.29 London low on the higher-yields backdrop, before a higher-low recovery into the NY open. The post-claims push was rejected at the 4285 NY high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London drop. Price is now back on the Asian low and the rising trendline, with EMA50 just below.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,264.84, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,285.03, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asian low and rising trendline exposes the 4264.84 swing low, then the 4244.29 London low
Close above the 4285 NY high reopens the 4303.26 Asian high and the 4300 pivot
New Home Sales 14:00 UTC and Trump–Xi headlines could move yields and shift this read
13:04 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader hawkish-yield downdraft · RSI 61 · price 4,282.19
Higher-low chain off the London low, price back inside the Asian range.
London broke the asian low at 4273.7 as yields and hike odds pressed gold, bottoming at the london low of 4244.29. Since then gold has built a higher-low chain, and the post-claims dip to 4264.8 held. Early NY lifted price back inside the Asian range to a 4283.3 session high, right at the 61.8% fib of the asian high to london low drop, making the London breakdown look like a false break so far.
Support: 4,273.70, 4,264.84, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,283.31, 4,288.00, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4273.7 asian low revives the London breakdown read
Break of the 4264.8 higher low violates the higher-low trendline
Hold above the 4283.3 session high and 4288 london open highs opens $4,300 and the 4303.3 asian high
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL rebound off London low into broken Asian range low.
London broke below the 4273.7 Asian low as PMI-driven yield and USD strength weighed, bottoming at the 4244.3 London low before a HH/HL rebound along a rising trendline into NY. The dip to a 4264.8 higher low in the jobless-claims bar was absorbed. Price is now retesting the broken Asian low, where EMA50 and the 50% retracement of the Asian high-to-London low drop converge.
Support: 4,264.84, 4,252.03, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,285.61
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4273.7 Asian low / EMA50 confluence opens the 4285.6 breakdown point
Loss of the 4264.8 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 4252.0 swing low
A break under the 4244.3 London low resumes the one-week-low slide
Fed's Hammack (12:50 UTC), Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 4244 session low, retesting the broken Asian low from below.
London broke the 4273.74 asian low on firm USD and >5.1% yields after Wednesday's PMI beat, extending to a 4244.29 session low. The bounce since has printed higher lows and is now retesting the asian low from below, which lines up with the 50% fib of the drop from the asian high and sits near the EMA50.
Support: 4,266.97, 4,252.03, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,287.95, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4274 asian low / 50% fib returns price to the Asian range and opens the 4288 london high, with the 4303 asian high above
Loss of the 4267 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4252 higher low
A break below the 4244 session low resumes the London downleg
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) land on the current bar; Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after London selloff · RSI 46 · price 4,264.21
Asian range broken lower; rising lows off session low, capped below 4267.90.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and extended the yields-driven slide to a 4244.29 session low. Demand stepped in there and a rising-lows sequence has formed since. Price sits on EMA20 near the 50% retrace of the London drop, capped by the 4267.90 swing high ahead of US Jobless Claims.
Support: 4,252.03, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,267.90, 4,273.74, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4267.90 swing high opens the broken asian low at 4273.74, then the london high at 4287.95
Break of the rising lows line and the 4252.03 higher low puts the 4244.29 session low back in play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under broken support · RSI 45 · price 4,260.05
Lower highs through Asia, London break of Asian low, higher low off 4245.
London broke the 4274 Asian low as the post-PMI yield and USD bid carried over. Price slid to a 4245 session low, then bounced to a 4267.9 bounce high that stalled right at the 38.2% fib of the 4303–4245 leg. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45. The lower highs trendline from Asia is intact, and the 4252 higher low is the first floor of the rebound.
Support: 4,252.00, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,267.90, 4,274.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4274 asian low and the lower highs trendline would neutralise the London break
Failure to hold the 4252 higher low exposes a retest of the 4245 session low
Rejection at the 4267.9 bounce high / 38.2% fib keeps the bounce corrective; 4300 psych pivot is the upper marker
London broke the Asian range low; lower lows to 4245, first micro higher low at 4252.
London broke the Asian low near 4274 and ran to a 4245 session low, with the post-PMI USD and yield bid still weighing on gold. The bounce since has printed a higher low at 4252 and is pressing the 4268 bounce high at the 38.2% fib. Price is back on ema20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,252.00, 4,245.00
Resistance: 4,267.90, 4,274.00, 4,281.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4268 bounce high opens a retest of the broken 4274 Asian low, which sits at the 50% fib
Rejection under 4274 and a break of the 4252 higher low reopens the 4245 session low
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 4281 invalidates the London downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs through London, first higher low forming.
London broke below the Asian low at 4273.74 and ground lower in a lower-high sequence to a 4244.29 session low, extending the post-PMI selling as yields above 5.1% and a firm USD kept pressure on gold. The latest bars bounced near 4260, the 38.2% retracement of the London drop, with the bounce high at 4264.34 capping so far and the minor low at 4250.31 the nearest reference below.
Support: 4,250.31, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,264.34, 4,273.74, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
Close above 4264.34 bounce high and the 50% of the London drop (~4266) opens a retest of the former asian low at 4273.74
Break of 4244.29 session low resumes the lower-low chain
Close back above the london high at 4287.95 negates the London break lower
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, first bounce off session low · RSI 37 · price 4,258.15
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high chain broken by a rejection bar.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.7 and Wednesday's 4274.8 low. That extended the post-PMI slide to a 4244.3 session low, with firm yields and USD in control. The 10:30 UTC bar rejected that low and closed back above the falling trendline, with price now testing the 38.2% sell-off fib near 4261 and RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 4,250.00, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,262.58, 4,273.74, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4262.6 bounce high and 38.2% fib reopens the 4273.7 asian low, now overhead
Reclaim of the asian low would put the 4287.9 london high back in view
Failure at 4250 psych and a break of the 4244.3 session low resumes the lower-low chain
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extended · RSI 23 · price 4,246.05
Lower-high chain after London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the Asian low at 4273.74 at 07:45 UTC, then held a descending highs sequence to a fresh session low at 4244.29, down about $43 from the London high. Hawkish Fed repricing and 10y yields above 5.1% are keeping pressure on gold. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, but no base has formed late in London.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,240.00
Resistance: 4,259.33, 4,273.74
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4259.33 lower high breaks the descending highs line
A reclaim of the 4273.74 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Acceptance below the session low and the 4240 round number extends the lower-low chain
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into 4250 · RSI 29 · price 4,250.67
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range low broken.
Gold broke below the Asian low at 4273.74 early in the London session. It has since printed a clean lower-high, lower-low chain down to a 4250.31 session low, extending Wednesday's PMI-driven slide with yields holding above 5.1%. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, and the latest lower high at 4259.33 sits just under the descending trendline.
Support: 4,250.31
Resistance: 4,259.33, 4,273.74, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4259.33 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4250.31 session low extends the lower-low sequence through the 4250 round number
A reclaim of the 4273.74 asian low, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the london high–session low leg, puts price back inside the Asian range
London high at 4287.95 marks the top of today's session structure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack and Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high/lower-low chain since 08:15 UTC.
London broke the 4273.74 Asian low at 08:15 UTC and extended gold's post-PMI slide to a 4250.85 session low. Every bounce since has capped at a lower high, the latest at 4265.39. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not oversold, and price is below both EMAs heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,250.85
Resistance: 4,265.39, 4,273.74, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4265.39 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence.
A reclaim of the 4273.74 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 4303.26 Asian high and the $4,300 pivot above.
Failure to hold the 4250.85 session low extends the lower-low chain.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak around NY open could materially shift this read.
London broke below the Asian range low; lower highs and lower lows since 08:15 UTC.
Mid-London, gold broke below the Asian low at 4273.7 after 08:00 UTC. A clean lower-high chain has since carried it to a 4250.85 session low, extending the post-PMI slide as 10y yields hold above 5.1%. RSI(14) sits near 28, not yet extreme, and the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 4287.95 london high lines up with the asian low.
Support: 4,250.85
Resistance: 4,260.40, 4,273.70, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4260.4 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4273.7 asian low (61.8% fib) puts price back inside the Asian range; 4287.95 london high above
Failure to hold the 4250.85 session low and the 4250 round number extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each bar since London open · RSI 30 · price 4,256.92
Range break below Asian range, lower-high sequence.
Two hours into London, gold has broken the Asian low at 4274, which was also Wednesday's post-PMI floor. It is printing successive lower highs down to a 4254.33 session low as yields hold the move. RSI(14) sits near 30. The 38.2% retrace of the drop from the Asia high lands on that broken asian low.
Support: 4,254.33, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,265.39, 4,274.00, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 4274 turns the range break into a false break
Break of the lower highs line through 4265.39 ends the current bar-by-bar decline
Failure to hold the session low exposes the 4250 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson at 12:50/13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A retest of the london high at 4287.95 would put price back inside the Asian range
09:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 4,264.37
Range break below 4274 floor, session low 4258.75.
Gold stays heavy after yesterday's PMI-driven yield spike. The London-open bounce from the 4274 broken floor (yesterday's low and the Asian low) faded at the 4285.6 lower high. The 08:30 UTC bar then cut through that floor to a 4258.75 session low. Price is basing just above that low with RSI(14) near 36. Lower highs from the 4303.26 Asian high remain intact.
Support: 4,258.75, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,274.00, 4,285.60, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4274 broken floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4258.75 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4250 round number
A reclaim of the 4285.6 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian high 4303.26 caps the fib retracement of the overnight leg
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 4,261.05
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL chain intact.
London open broke the Asian low at 4273.74 and the prior-day low near 4275, running to a 4259.14 session low as USD holds its post-PMI bid with 10y yields above 5.1%. Highs keep stepping down from 4296 through the 4287.95 London high, with RSI(14) near 31 and the psych 4300 pivot well overhead.
Support: 4,259.14, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,287.95, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 4273.74, the 38.2% retrace of the London drop, would neuter the breakdown
Failure to hold the 4259.14 session low exposes the 4250 round number
A close above the lower-highs line and the 4287.95 london high breaks the LH chain
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC plus Hammack and Paulson could materially shift this read; the psych 4300 pivot caps above
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia and London · RSI 32 · price 4,267.79
Asian range low broken, bounce capped below 4274.
Early London broke below the Asian low near 4274 and the prior NY low, printing a session low at 4262.54 as yields and the USD stay bid after Wednesday's PMI beat. The bounce stalled at 4273.81, just under the broken Asian low and the 38.2% fib, with lower highs capping price since 4296 and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,262.54, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,274.28, 4,287.95
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4274 asian low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4262.54 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4250 round number
Close above the 4288 london high breaks the lower highs line
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside in London; lower highs from the Asian high.
London broke below the Asian low at 4273.74 and yesterday's 4274–4275 lows. The 08:15 UTC bar printed a 4262.54 session low as the post-PMI USD and yield bid kept gold heavy. Lower highs from the 4302.96 Asian high to the 4287.95 London high frame the move, with the 38.2–50% fib of that leg at 4278–4283; RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,262.54, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,287.95, 4,302.96
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4273.74 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 4262.54 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4250 round number
Reclaim of the 4287.95 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
08:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 35 · price 4,274.65
Lower highs from the 4303.3 Asian high compressing onto a 4273.7–4274.8 flat floor.
Since the PMI-driven drop in Wednesday's NY session, gold has printed lower highs: the 4303.3 Asian high, the 4296.3 swing high, then rejection at the 4288 London high. Each sat above a flat floor at 4273.7–4274.8 that has now been tested four times. London faded its early bounce and the current bar is back retesting the Asian low below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,287.95, 4,296.29, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4273.7 asian low breaks the flat floor and extends the lower-high sequence
Close above the 4288 london high and the lower-highs line converging there negates the compression. The 4296.3 swing high and 4303.3 asian high sit above
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), followed by Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Gold is holding inside a 4274–4303 Asian range after Wednesday's PMI-driven drop. The 4274 triple low has held on tests in NY, Asia and at London open, while highs keep stepping lower from 4303 to 4297 to 4288. The early-London bounce stalled at the 4288 London high, the 61.8% of the 4296–4274 drop, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,274.30
Resistance: 4,288.00, 4,297.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4274 triple low breaks the range floor and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4288 London high and the lower-high trendline near 4292 opens a test of the 4297 lower high
Reclaim of the 4303 asian high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
4274–4303 range, lower highs compressing onto range low.
Gold has ranged between 4274 and 4303 since Wednesday's PMI beat knocked it below 4300. The London open dipped to 4274.28 and was rejected just above the 4273.74 Asian low, the third hold of the range low, and price is back near 4285 with RSI(14) at 47. Lower highs at 4296–4297 and the 4303 Asian high cap the range, and the 4288 London high is the first overhead test.
Support: 4,274.00
Resistance: 4,288.00, 4,296.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4274 range low breaks the floor and sets a fresh window low
Acceptance above the 4288 London high, then the 4296.5 lower highs line, invalidates the lower-high sequence toward the 4303 Asian high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Range 4274–4303 with repeated floor defence and a lower-highs sequence.
Gold has ranged 4274–4303 since yesterday's PMI-driven drop, and the range floor held a fourth time at the London open with a rejection from 4274.28 back to 4285. Asia printed lower highs from the 4303 asian high to the 4296 swing high, and the early London session high sits at 4288. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 4,274.30
Resistance: 4,288.00, 4,296.30, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4274 range floor breaks the multi-test base and prints a fresh window low
Close above the 4288 session high, then the 4296 swing high and the lower-highs line, reopens the 4303 asian high and $4,300
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the read through yields and the USD
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a floor · RSI 47 · price 4,283.46
Lower highs from the Asian high pressing into a flat 4274 base.
Gold is holding the 4274 triple low after the US PMI beat drove yesterday's slide. Demand absorbed the level in NY, in Asia and again into the London open, with the latest bar rebounding from 4274.3 to 4284. Highs keep stepping lower from the 4303.3 Asian high through the 4297 swing high to the 4286.7 lower high, and trendline resistance sits near 4292.
Support: 4,274.30, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,286.70, 4,297.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
A close below the 4274 triple low breaks the base and opens the 4250 round number.
A close above the 4286.7 lower high and the trendline near 4292 ends the lower-high sequence and brings the 4297 swing high and 4303.3 Asian high into view.
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the read through yields and the USD.
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into range floor · RSI 39 · price 4,275.60
Lower highs inside 4274–4303 Asian range, floor retested.
The PMI drop from 4337 flattened into a 4274–4303 Asian range after the US PMI beats. Since then the Asian high, a lower high at 4296 and a swing high at 4287 have pushed price back onto the asian low and yesterday's 4274.8 low into London open. RSI(14) near 39 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,286.66, 4,296.29, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4273.7 asian low breaks the double floor and exposes the 4250 round number
Recovery through the 4286.7 swing high and the lower-highs trendline eases the sequence; the 4296 lower high sits near the 38.2% of the PMI drop, with the 4303 asian high capping the range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Gold is back at the base of the Asian range (4273.74–4303.26) heading into London open. The Asian session printed lower highs at 4303, 4297 and 4296, and the rebound after the late-Asia drop stalled at the 4286.66 swing high. The 4274 area has held three times since the post-PMI selloff in Wednesday's NY session, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,286.66, 4,296.29, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4273.74 asian low breaks the base and opens the path toward the 4250 round number
Recovery through the 4286.66 swing high and the 4296.29 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence; the 4303.26 asian high and $4,300 sit above
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Down, consolidating below 4300 after PMI drop · RSI 41 · price 4,281.23
Asian range 4273.74–4303.26 with lower highs; price in lower half.
Gold is still pinned in the 4273.74 asian low to 4303.26 asian high range after the NY-session sell-off on the blowout US PMIs, with Asia printing a lower high at 4296.99 and a rejection at 4296.29 under the descending trendline. The 05:30 UTC breakdown from 4291.13 stalled just above the 4277.57 swing low heading into London open, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,277.57, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,291.13, 4,296.99, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4273.74 asian low breaks the range to the downside
Reclaim of the 4291.13 breakdown level and the descending trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence; 4303.26 asian high above
Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
The blowout US PMIs drove Wednesday's NY slide from 4313 to the 4275 area. The Asian session then printed a fresh window low at the asia low of 4273.74. The rebound was rejected at 4297 and again at the 4296.29 lower high, and the late-Asia breakdown from 4290.72 has price back near 4281 with RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 4,277.57, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,290.72, 4,296.29, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4277.57 swing low and the 4273.74 asia low extends the lower-low sequence into London
A close back above the 4290.72 breakdown and the 4296.29 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
The 4303.26 asia high sits just above the $4,300 round number, where a rebound would test whether 4300 has flipped to resistance
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
The selloff after yesterday's blowout US PMIs has settled into a 4274–4303 Asian range. Lower highs at the 4302.96 asian high and the 4296.29 lower high were both rejected below 4300, and price is back near the 4277.57 session low with an hour to London open. RSI(14) near 39 shows no extreme, and a fib of the Asia drop saw the rebound stall near 78.6%.
Support: 4,277.57, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,296.29, 4,302.96
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4273.74 asian low breaks the range to a fresh window low
Close above the 4296.29 lower high and the 4302.96 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts 4300 back as support
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Range 4274–4303 since the PMI drop, highs stepping lower inside it.
Gold has ranged in a 4274–4303 box since yesterday's blowout US PMIs knocked it off 4313. The Asia session set a lower high at 4297 and a second one at 4296. The 05:30 bar rejected that ceiling and gave back the full bounce, putting price back on the 4280 micro floor about an hour before London open.
Support: 4,280.20, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,296.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4280 micro floor exposes the 4274 asia low, the double low with yesterday's NY trough
Close back above the 4296 lower highs line breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 4303 asia high and 4300 psych
Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could break the range either way
Gold has ranged roughly 4274–4303 since the hot US PMI selloff. Asia dipped to 4273.7 (asia low), just under yesterday's 4274.8 low, and reversed. Price now sits near the 50% of the Asia drop fib with rising lows at the 4280.6 swing low, hugging both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 53 as London open approaches.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,296.30, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4303.3 asia high breaks the range and flips 4300 back above price
Loss of the 4280.6 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 4273.7 asia low
Rejection at the 4296.3 swing high keeps the range intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Range after sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 56 · price 4,289.98
Asian range 4273.7–4303.3; low swept then higher low at 4280.6, capped by equal highs near 4296.5.
Yesterday's PMI-driven NY drop bottomed at 4274.8. Asia swept that low to 4273.7, then printed a higher low at 4280.6. Price is now pinned at flat EMAs near 4290 late in the Asia session, with equal highs at 4296.5, the 78.6% retrace of the Asian drop, rejected twice. RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,296.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4296.5 equal highs, then the 4303.3 asian high, reclaims 4300 and breaks the Asian range
Loss of the 4280.6 higher low puts the 4273.7 asian low back in play; a close below confirms a lower low
London open in ~1h45 may set the session range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift this read via yields
Lower highs against a higher low inside the 4273.7–4303.3 Asian range.
Gold is still pinned near one-week lows after Wednesday's PMI-driven sell-off. The Asian session undercut yesterday's NY lows at the 4273.74 asian low and reclaimed them, and price now sits near the 61.8% of the Asian swing fib into London open. Lower highs at the 4303.26 asian high and the 4296.99 swing high cap the market, with the 4280.58 swing low the nearer floor.
Support: 4,280.58, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,296.99, 4,303.26, 4,313.56
What it said to watch
A close above the 4296.99 swing high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression, with the 4303.26 asian high next and the 4313.56 pre-pmi high beyond it
Loss of the 4280.58 swing low re-exposes the 4273.74 asian low and yesterday's NY lows
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asian range · RSI 43 · price 4,286.69
Asian range 4273.7–4303.3, lower highs vs higher lows contracting mid-range.
Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session slide into the 4275–4281 area. The Asia session then failed on a push through 4300 at the 4303.3 asia high and swept yesterday's low to 4273.7 before snapping back. Late in the Asian session, price is coiling between a descending line off the 4297 swing high and higher lows from the asia low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4280.6 swing low reopens the 4273.7 asia low; a break there marks a lower low beneath the post-PMI trough
Close above the 4297 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and returns the 4303.3 asia high and 4300 handle to focus
London open in ~2h may resolve the Asian range compression
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
4274–4303 Asian range, low swept and reclaimed, lower highs since 01:15 UTC.
Asia briefly undercut Wednesday's post-PMI low at 4274.8, printing an asian low of 4273.7 before reclaiming it. Since then the session has printed lower highs at the 4303.3 asian high and 4297.0, and late-Asia price is drifting near 4286 just above the 4280.6 swing low, under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 44. The hawkish yield backdrop from the blowout flash PMIs is still capping rebounds below the $4,300 handle.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4280.6 swing low puts the 4273.7 asian low back in play; failure to hold it confirms a lower low
Close above the 4297.0 lower high and the 4303.3 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims $4,300
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Asian range 4273.7–4303.3 with a lower high, compressing mid-range.
Asia met rejection at the $4,300 handle with a 4303.3 asian high. It then swept yesterday's 4274.8 NY low to a 4273.7 asian low before snapping back. A lower high at 4297.0 now has price coiling near 4285 above the 4280.6 micro low, with RSI(14) near 42, and hot PMI-driven USD strength keeps gold capped below 4300 into the London open.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4280.6 micro low exposes the 4273.7 asian low; a close below it turns the sweep into a lower-low
M15 close above the 4297.0 lower high and the falling trendline reopens the 4303.3 asian high and the 4300 handle
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Range after post-PMI selloff, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 4,284.77
4274–4303 range, lower highs off the Asia high.
Gold has held a 4274–4303 range since the hot US PMIs drove Wednesday's NY-session slide. Asia's push through 4300 to the 4303.3 Asia high was rejected, and supply has capped each bounce on a lower-highs line since. Price sits mid-range below EMA20, RSI(14) ~44, near the 50% of the Asia drop fib at 4288.5 with London open about 3h away.
Support: 4,280.60, 4,273.70
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.30, 4,313.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4273.7 range low, the Asia low that also sits just under Wednesday's 4274.8 NY low, confirms a lower-low
4280.6 swing low is the first shelf inside the range
M15 close above the 4297 swing high breaks the lower-highs line; the 4300 handle and 4303.3 asia high then come into play, with the 4313.6 pre-pmi high beyond
Fed Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Heavy below 4,300, lower highs in late Asia · RSI 43 · price 4,282.19
Range 4274–4303 since NY afternoon, lower highs forming inside it.
After the hot US PMIs drove yesterday's NY selloff, Asia rallied to the asia high at 4302.96. That rally was rejected at the $4,300 handle, and the drop swept the NY lows to a new asia low at 4273.74 before snapping back to 4296.99. The rebound has since faded through a series of lower highs, with price back at 4282 in late Asia, below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,277.60, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,293.74, 4,296.99, 4,302.96
What it said to watch
A break below the 4273.74 asia low confirms a lower-low and ends the range read
Failure to hold the ny lows near 4277.6 puts the 4273.74 sweep low back in play
A close above the 4296.99 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the asia high / $4,300 handle
Price back above the 4293.74 lower high would reclaim the 50–61.8% fib zone of the asia leg
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Range after sell-off, highs stepping lower · RSI 47 · price 4,286.43
Asian range 4273.74–4302.96, price mid-range under lower highs.
Late Asia session: gold swept yesterday's 4274.79 low to a 4273.74 asian low and reclaimed it. The 4300 handle capped the asian high at 4302.96, and highs have stepped lower since (4297, 4293.7, 4290.5), with price pinned just above a 4285 micro floor. The backdrop is still Wednesday's hot-PMI slide from 4313 to 4281, with 10y yields holding above 5.1%.
Support: 4,285.00, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,302.96
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4285 micro floor exposes the 4273.74 asian low; failure there confirms a lower-low
Close above the 4297 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 4302.96 asian high / 4300 handle back in play
London open in ~3.5h is likely to decide which side of the Asian range gives first
Fed Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
4274–4303 range; Asia swept range low, then printed a lower high.
Gold is boxed in a 4274–4303 range since the hot US PMIs drove the pmi break from 4313. Mid-Asia, price swept the range low to 4273.74, reclaimed it, and stalled at a lower high near 4297. It now sits on a micro low at 4285, near the 50% of the asia swing fib, with RSI(14) around 49 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 4,285.00, 4,274.00
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.00, 4,313.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4274 range low confirms a lower low beyond the Asian sweep
M15 close above the 4303 asian high breaks the range and brings the 4313.5 pmi break into view
Loss of the 4285 micro low returns price to the lower half of the range
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4347; post-PMI range 4274–4303, Asia low swept and reclaimed.
Gold is holding the range it built after Wednesday's hot US PMIs. In Asia, supply capped the $4,300 handle at the 4303.26 asia high, then a drop took out Wednesday's NY low (4274.79) by a dollar to 4273.74 before a quick reclaim to the 4297 swing high. Price sits near the 61.8% fib of that Asian swing with RSI(14) ~54, and the lower highs trendline from 4347 is still intact.
Support: 4,284.50, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,297.00, 4,303.26, 4,313.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4303.26 asia high reclaims $4,300, clears the lower highs trendline and puts the 4313.56 pre-PMI high in view
Rejection at the 4297 swing high keeps price inside the range. Loss of the 4284.50 higher low re-exposes the 4273.74 asia low
A close below the 4273.74 asia low turns the sweep into a fresh downtrend leg
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising in Asia range · RSI 54 · price 4,293.77
4274–4303 range; NY low undercut then reclaimed.
After Wednesday's slide on the hot US PMIs, Asia was rejected at the $4,300 handle (asia high 4303.26). It then dipped to a session low of 4273.74, a false break of the 4274.79 NY low that was reclaimed within one bar. The rebound stalled at 4296.99, the fib 78.6% of the Asian drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR around 820 pips.
Support: 4,285.00, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,296.99, 4,303.26, 4,313.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4303.26 asia high reclaims the $4,300 handle and exposes the 4313.56 ny high
Rejection again at the 4296.99 fib 78.6% keeps the 4274–4303 range intact
Loss of the 4285 fib 38.2% puts the 4273.74 session low back in play; a close below it turns the false break into a lower-low
Fed Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Post-PMI range 4274–4299; Asia false break above, sweep below.
Gold has held a 4274–4299 range since hot US PMIs knocked it through 4300 during NY hours. Asia pushed above the range top to a 4303.26 asia high but was rejected at the 4300 handle, then swept the NY low to a 4273.74 sweep low before recovering. Price sits near the 50% of that Asia drop, just under the ema20 at 4289 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 4,277.90, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,289.00, 4,298.69, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4277.9 pmi low and then the 4273.74 sweep low confirms a lower-low and ends the range read
Acceptance above the 4298.69 range top and the 4303.26 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Hold above the ema20 near 4289 needed to shift the bounce from rejection to recovery
Fed Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 36 · price 4,275.54
Lower highs since the PMI drop; Asia poke above 4300 rejected, Asian low broken.
The Asia session push through $4,300 to the 4303.26 asia high was rejected and fully unwound. Price sliced through the 4284 asian low and is pressing Wednesday's post-PMI wed low at 4274.79, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR(14) around 740 pips. The lower-highs trendline from the hot US PMI selloff still caps, and the fib of the asia drop puts its 38.2% level beside the Asian low.
Support: 4,274.79, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,284.03, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4274.79 wed low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4250 round number
Reclaim of the 4284 asian low (38.2% of the asia drop) negates the break and returns price to the Asian range
Move back above the 4303 asia high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the rejection read
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4284–4303 inside NY base, rejection at 4300.
Gold has based between the 4274.79 session low and 4295 since the hot US PMI selloff. Early Asia pushed to the 4302.96 asian high, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 4319 swing high, but was rejected at the 4300 handle. Price is back at 4290, just under the EMA20, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 4,284.03, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,302.96, 4,319.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4302.96 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 4319 swing high
Failure to hold the 4284 asian low reopens the 4274.79 session low
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4274.79; Asia broke above post-PMI range top.
Asia session lifted gold out of its 4285–4295 base and through the 4298.69 prior high, the NY peak after the hot PMIs. Price printed a session high at 4303.26, right at the 61.8% fib of the 4319–4275 drop, and is now retesting the $4,300 handle. RSI(14) sits near 64.
Support: 4,298.69, 4,284.03, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,303.26, 4,319.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4303.26 session high opens the 4319.05 swing high
Slip back below 4298.69 prior high turns the break into a false break toward the 4284.03 asian low
Loss of rising lows trendline and 4274.79 swing low resumes the post-PMI downtrend
Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 4274.79 NY low; overnight 4285–4295 range broken higher.
Early Asia broke the 4285–4295 overnight range and is pressing the 4300 handle at the 61.8% retracement of the 4319–4275 drop that followed the hot US PMIs, with the Asia high at 4303.26 capping so far. Higher lows from the NY low at 4274.79 to the Asia low at 4284.03 underpin the bounce, and RSI(14) sits near 69.
Support: 4,294.81, 4,284.03, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,303.26, 4,313.56, 4,319.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4305 clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 4313.56 prior high, then the 4319.05 swing high
Slip back below the 4294.81 range top returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 4284.03 Asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 4274.79 NY low back in focus
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read; Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 UTC
Gold is basing above the 4274.79 Wed low after the hot US PMIs drove the slide from 4369. Asia is holding a 4284–4295 range with higher lows from 4281.14, while supply caps the Asia high near 4295, where price sits just under the EMA50. RSI(14) is near 61; the 4300 psych handle and the fib 38.2 at 4311 are overhead.
Support: 4,284.03, 4,281.14, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,294.81, 4,300.00, 4,310.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asia high at 4294.8 and the 4300 psych handle would break the consolidation cap
Loss of the Asia low at 4284.0 and the 4281.1 higher low puts the Wed low at 4274.8 back in play
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a tight range · RSI 59 · price 4,292.30
Post-selloff consolidation 4275–4299, Asian range inside it.
Wednesday's PMI-driven slide from 4369 bottomed at the 4274.79 range low during NY hours. Since then gold has held a 4275–4299 consolidation, and early Asia session trade sits in a 4284–4294 Asian range. Price is testing the Asian high at 4292 with RSI(14) near 59, above EMA20 but still just under EMA50 and the 23.6% fib of the decline (~4297).
Support: 4,284.03, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,294.43, 4,298.69
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4298.7 range high and 4300 psych breaks the consolidation; 4313.5 breakdown level is next overhead
Rejection at the 4294.4 Asian high keeps price capped under EMA50 and the decline fib
Loss of the 4284 Asian low exposes the 4274.8 range low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
The hot US PMI beats drove the 13:30 UTC leg from the 4313.6 pre-PMI high to a 4274.8 day low. Since then price has printed higher lows inside a 4275–4299 consolidation capped by the range high near 4300. Early Asia session is holding a tight 4285–4294 Asian range, with price sitting at the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib and just under EMA50 near 4292.
Support: 4,285.05, 4,281.14, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,294.43, 4,298.69, 4,313.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4298.7 range high and 4300 opens 4313.6, the pre-PMI high near the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib
Break of the 4285 Asian low and the 4281 higher low exposes the 4274.8 day low; a close below it resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read