Lower highs and lows all week; base forming at 4244 under 4288.5.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 4383 week high. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session break through 4300, and Thursday extended to a 4244 week low in London as yields pushed past 5.1%. A second test of 4244 in NY held, and price has since compressed around EMA(20) near 4272, below EMA(50), with the bounce capped at the 4288.5 neckline just shy of the 38.2% retracement of the 4371–4244 leg.
Support: 4,272.40, 4,256.30, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.5 neckline and the lower-high line would confirm the double bottom and put the 4300 round number, former support, in play
Loss of the 4256 swing low reopens the 4244 week low; a close below it resumes the lower-low sequence
Friday's Durable Goods (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams and Hammack could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; double low forming at 4244.
Gold has stepped lower from Monday's 4383 high, with the big legs coming in US hours. Wednesday's blowout PMIs took price through 4300, and Thursday's hawkish Fed chorus, yields above 5.1% and a firm USD extended the slide to a 4244 week low. Demand held two Thursday tests of 4244 with RSI(14) making a higher low near 38, against 28 on Wednesday. Price now sits on a flattening EMA(20) at 4274, while the 4288.5 bounce high stalled below the 38.2% fib (4293) of the Tuesday-high move and under the lower-high line.
Support: 4,252.50, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,274.20, 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.5 bounce high and the lower-high line breaks the sequence and sets up a double-low reclaim
Failure at the 4252.5 swing low and the 4244 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
The 4303 lower high near $4,300 and the 38.2–50% fib band (4293–4308) is the next hurdle above ema20
Fri Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Daily lower highs and lower lows since Monday; double low at 4244 with a capped rebound.
Each daily high since Monday's 4383 peak has come in lower. Wednesday's PMI beats broke the NY session below 4300, and London extended the slide to a 4244 week low today as yields and USD pressed higher. The NY retest of the week low held at 4244.8 and set up a potential double bottom with a pivot low near 4252. The rebound stalled at the 4288.5 bounce high under the lower-highs trendline, leaving price sitting on EMA(20) at the 23.6% level of the Wed-Thu drop, with RSI(14) near 47 and well below EMA(50).
Support: 4,252.03, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,303.26, 4,322.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.5 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would confirm the double bottom off 4244 and bring the 38.2% of the Wed-Thu drop (~4292) and 4303 thu high into play
Break of the 4252 pivot low and the 4244 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
4322.8 monday low, near the 61.8% of the Wed-Thu drop, marks the upper edge of any recovery
Friday's Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4383 top. Wednesday's NY-session break below 4300 came on the US PMI beats and hawkish Fed repricing, and early Thursday's 4303 thu high now caps a lower-highs trendline. Thursday's London low at 4244.29 was retested in NY at 4244.79, forming twin lows, with RSI(14) near 38 against roughly 30 at Wednesday's low, a bullish divergence. Price is now pinned at EMA(20), just under the 4288.54 ny high, with the 38.2/ema50 cluster of the tue-thu drop sitting at 4293.
Support: 4,256.27, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,288.54, 4,293.00, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.54 ny high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 4293 38.2/ema50 cluster and the 4303 thu high in play
Loss of the 4256 higher low exposes the 4244 twin lows; a close below them extends the downtrend
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4,383 peak after the week opened near 4,375. Wednesday's NY-session drop on the US PMI beats broke 4,300, and London extended the Tuesday–Thursday drop to a 4,244 week low today. Two tests of 4,244–4,245 have held, with dip demand lifting price to the 4,288 bounce high in NY, but that rebound faded and price sits just under the EMA(20) near 4,272 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s. The Thursday lower-highs line from the 4,303 thu high still caps, so the double bottom remains unconfirmed and 38.2% of the drop near 4,293 has not been tested.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,288 bounce high would clear the double bottom neckline and the lower-highs line, putting the 4,303 thu high and 4,300 area back in play
Loss of the 4,256 higher low and then the 4,244 week low would resume the downtrend and void the double bottom
Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday's open · RSI 40 · price 4,260.73
Lower highs and lower lows; basing at the 4244 week low.
Gold opened the week at 4375 and has printed lower highs each day: 4383 Monday, 4376 Tuesday and 4369 Wednesday. The blowout US PMIs drove Wednesday's NY-session break through the 4300 round number, which now caps as broken support. London extended the slide to a 4244 week low on Thursday, near the 4250 psych level, and that low was retested in NY after the claims beat. The bounce that followed stalled at a 4288.5 rebound high, just short of the 38.2% retrace of Wednesday's breakdown. Price has since slipped back under the EMA(20) near 4268, with RSI(14) around 40 and no oversold reading on this leg.
Support: 4,250.00, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,268.00, 4,288.54, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.5 rebound high and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4244 week low and 4250 psych confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 4268 is the first sign the pullback is stabilising; 4300 round number is broken support overhead
Fri 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 4371 high; 4290–4380 range broken Wed.
Gold opened the week at 4375 and rebounds were capped at 4376 and 4369–4371 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday's PMI beats broke the 4290–4380 range during NY hours, and the 4300 handle is now old support. Thursday extended to a 4244 week low in London, and the post-claims bounce to 4285, a fresh lower high, was rejected into NY. Price trades back near that low, below EMA(20) at about 4269, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,274.79, 4,285.03
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the wed low at 4275 and the 4285 lower high would break the lower-high line and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4244 week low, tested twice today, confirms another lower low and brings the 4200 round number into view
Reclaim of 4293–4305 (38.2% fib and old support) would signal the break is being retraced
Fri Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC, plus Williams 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's late high.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4371 peak. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session break below the 4300 handle, and London extended the slide to a 4244 week low today, with the 4300 handle rejecting the Asia bounce on the way. The NY-session rebound around the jobless claims beat stalled at the 4285 NY high, just under the lower-highs line, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 4271 with RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 4,244.30, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,271.00, 4,285.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 4244 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4200 psych level in view
An H1 close above the 4285 NY high clears the lower-highs line and challenges the downtrend read. The 38.2% of the Wed-Thu drop near 4293 and the 4300 handle sit just above
Fri Durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; rebound capped at EMA20.
Gold opened the week near 4375 and has printed lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 4383 high. The dominant legs came in NY hours: Wednesday's US PMI beats drove the break under 4300 into the 4275 area. London extended the slide to a 4244 week low today. The NY-open bounce around the jobless claims beat stalled at a 4283 rejection, just above EMA(20) near 4278, and has rolled back. RSI(14) near 38 holds below 50.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,278.00, 4,283.31, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4283 rejection high and EMA(20) would break the lower-high sequence along the descending trendline.
Failure to hold the 4244 week low extends the lower-low structure, with 4200 psych the next round number below.
A reclaim of the 4303 Asia high, inside the 38.2–50% fib zone (4292–4307) of the Wednesday–Thursday leg, would signal a deeper correction.
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, Williams on Fri at 09:15 UTC and Fri UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; bounce back to EMA(20).
Gold has printed a lower high and lower low every day since the 4375 weekly open. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session break from the 4369 wed high through 4300, and London extended the slide to a 4244 week low today. The bounce during the London-NY transition has lifted price back above the wed low and onto EMA(20) near 4282, with RSI(14) up to ~48 from the low 30s, while the thu high at 4303 caps the recovery; EMA(50) and the 4300 pivot also sit there.
Support: 4,274.80, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,303.30, 4,322.70, 4,369.30
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4303 thu high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% fib of the Tue–Thu decline at 4323
Failure to hold the wed low at 4275 on a closing basis returns focus to the 4244 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through 4323 would bring the 4369 wed high, the origin of the PMI-driven leg, back into view
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC, under way) and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC today, then Friday's Durables and UoM inflation expectations, could shift yields and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Wednesday low broken at London open.
Gold has set lower highs since the week-open high at 4383, and the slide sped up during NY hours on Wednesday after the US PMI beats lifted yields. Price broke the wed low at 4275 at London open today, pushing out of the Asian range and down to a fresh week low at 4244. It now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38, and the Asia-session rebound stalled at the 4300 pivot, just under the 50% level of the PMI leg fib.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,274.79, 4,369.34
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the wed low at 4275 would mark the London break as a false break
H1 close above the 4300 pivot breaks the Wed-Thu lower highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 4244 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4200 round number
The wed high at 4369 caps the PMI leg; only a recovery there would negate the week's downtrend structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday's Asian range broken lower.
Gold has traded lower since Monday's 4375 open, with each session rally capping below the prior one along the lower-highs line. The main leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US PMI beat and 10y yields above 5.1% took price through 4300. London broke Thursday's 4274–4303 Asian range and set a new week low at 4244, leaving price below EMA(20) near 4280. RSI(14) is near 36, so momentum is heavy but not yet oversold. The Wednesday low at 4275 and the 38.2% fib of the 4369–4244 leg near 4292 now sit overhead as resistance.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,274.79, 4,292.00, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 4275 wed low and EMA(20) would stall the breakdown from the Asian range
Reclaim of the 4303 day high breaks the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib zone
Failure to hold the 4244 week low exposes the 4200 round number
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday range floor broken at London open.
Gold has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 4383 high. The blowout US PMIs pushed it through 4300 during NY hours Wednesday, then Thursday's London open broke the 4274 range floor to a week low at 4250.85, with ema20 near 4283 capping every bounce. RSI(14) sits near 34 at this low versus roughly 22 at Wednesday's higher low, a bullish divergence into today's US data.
Support: 4,250.85
Resistance: 4,273.74, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4273.74 range floor would mark the London break as a false break and bring ema20 near 4283 into play
A push below the 4250.85 week low with RSI making a fresh low would cancel the bullish divergence
Reclaiming the 4296-4303 zone (asia high, 38.2% fib, lower-highs trendline) is needed to break the week's lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Daily lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday Asian range broken lower.
Gold has printed a lower high and lower low every session since Monday's 4375 weekly open. The heaviest leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when blowout US PMIs pushed the 10y above 5.1% and dragged price from 4369 to Wednesday's low at 4274.79. Today's Asian range (4274–4303) gave way at London open, taking price to a fresh week low at 4259 below EMA(20) and EMA(50), while RSI(14) near 33 holds above its Wednesday reading, a mild bullish divergence against the lower low.
Support: 4,259.14, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,274.79, 4,282.00, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the Wed low at 4274.79 would mark today's break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4259 week low exposes the 4250 psych level and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 4282 and the 4303 Asian high, which aligns with the 38.2% of the PMI leg, would break the lower-high trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson remarks at 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; tight range since Wednesday's NY break below 4300.
Gold has set lower highs all week: 4383 on Monday, 4371 late Tuesday, then 4303 in today's Asia session. The NY-session drop on Wednesday after the blowout US PMI beats broke the metal below 4300, as yields and USD firmed. Since then price has compressed into a roughly 4274–4303 consolidation, with the range top capping rebounds and the week low at 4273.74 tested twice in Asia and early London. Price sits just under the ema20 near 4290 with RSI(14) at 37, off oversold but not recovering, and ATR is contracting.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,290.00, 4,303.26, 4,322.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4303 range top would reclaim 4300 and bring the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday high to week low leg (~4311) into view, then the monday low at 4323, which sits near the 50% level
Failure to hold the 4273.74 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 4250 round number as the next reference
A push back above the lower-highs trendline from Tuesday's 4371 high would break the week's descending structure
Williams (08:10 UTC), Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read through yields and USD
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight 4274–4303 range below EMA20.
Each session since the 4375 weekly open has printed a lower high. Wednesday's US PMI beats drove the NY-session break from 4310 into the 4275–4281 area as yields pushed above 5.1%. Thursday's Asia bounce stalled at the 4303 asia high, right at the EMA(20), and price is back pressing the 4273.74 week low with RSI(14) near 39 and no divergence yet.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,292.00, 4,303.26, 4,321.50
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4273.74 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4250 round number in view
Reclaiming the EMA(20) near 4292 and the 4303 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 50% retrace of the PMI drop sits at 4321.5
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Williams/Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Lower highs since Monday, tight 4274–4303 box after PMI break.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, at 4383 in Monday's Asia session, 4376 and 4371 on Tuesday and 4369 early Wednesday. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when blowout US PMIs pushed the 10y yield above 5.1% and price broke through the 4310 pmi break shelf and the 4300 handle. Since then it has compressed between the 4274 week low and the 4303 asia high, below EMA(20) near 4294 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39 and holding above its sub-30 reading from the PMI drop.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,250.00
Resistance: 4,294.30, 4,303.26, 4,310.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4274 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4250 round number
Reclaim of the 4303 asia high and the pmi break at 4310 would challenge the lower-highs line and the Wednesday sell-off read
A move back to 4322 (50% of the Wednesday sell-off) would test whether 4300 has flipped to resistance
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift yields and the box
Repeated H1 closes back above ema20 would mark the first break in this week's rhythm of pullbacks failing below it
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, now basing in a tight Asian range.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from Monday's 4383.36 to Wednesday's 4369.34, keeping it well below the 4375.23 weekly open. The blowout US flash PMIs pushed yields above 5.1%, and gold's decisive leg lower came into Wednesday's NY session, followed by a week low at 4273.74 in Asia today. Since then price has compressed in a 4274–4303 Asian range, sitting on Tuesday's low at 4291.61 just under EMA(20) near 4297. RSI(14) has flattened around 43 rather than pressing lower.
Support: 4,291.61, 4,273.74
Resistance: 4,303.26, 4,322.77, 4,375.23
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4303.26 Asia high and EMA(20) opens a retrace toward the Wed drop fib 38.2% near 4310 and Monday's low at 4322.77
Failure to hold the 4273.74 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the lower highs trendline and the 4375.23 weekly open invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; tight 4275–4300 box beneath EMA(20).
Gold opened the week at 4375 and has printed lower highs each day (4383, 4376, 4371), with the dominant leg coming in Wednesday's NY session. The hot US PMI beats and 10y yields above 5.1% drove that session's drop to a week low at 4274.79. Since then price has compressed in a 4275–4300 box through late NY and Asia, capped by EMA(20) near 4302 and the 23.6% level of Wednesday's drop. RSI(14) is near 39 and printed a higher low against the marginal price low.
Support: 4,284.00, 4,274.79
Resistance: 4,302.30, 4,323.00, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 4302 and the 4300 handle would break the range compression and open the 50% fib at 4323, which coincides with Monday's low
The 4350 round number sits just below the lower highs line and is the next area where supply capped rebounds this week
Loss of the 4284 range floor and then the 4274.79 week low would extend the lower-low sequence and void the RSI divergence
Fed Williams at 08:10 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), followed by Hammack/Paulson, could materially shift this read