XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:04 UTC
Downtrend stalling into range · RSI 54 · price 4,291.74
Lower highs from 4376; range 4244–4316 since Thursday, higher low Friday.
Tuesday's Asia-session rejection at 4376 set the week's high. Wednesday's slide on hot US PMIs and hawkish Fedspeak then carried gold to the thursday low at 4244, which was tested twice. Since then H1 has ranged 4244–4316: Friday's London push stalled at the friday high between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, and the NY-session dip to the friday low recovered back to psych 4300 as a >3% WTI slide eased the USD. Price sits marginally above a flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 54, still beneath the lower-highs line from Wednesday's 4369.
Support: 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high at 4315.66 and the lower-highs line would break the week's sequence of lower highs
Repeated failure at psych 4300 keeps the 4244–4316 range read intact
Loss of the friday low and the higher-low line exposes the thursday low; a break there resumes the downtrend toward the 4230 area
Tue Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and Wed ADP/PCE could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4376 into a 4244–4316 range, higher lows since Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's Asia-session week high at 4376, with the heaviest selling in the Wednesday and Thursday London/NY sessions before a double bottom formed at the 4244 week low. London pushed price to the 4315.66 friday high, just above the 50% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, but the NY open sold off to a 4254.56 friday low after mixed durable goods. The oil slump then lifted it back above ema20, and it now sits at the 38.2% level just under the 4300 psych pivot, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 4,287.00, 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4300 psych pivot and the 4315.66 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 61.8% (~4326) and the 4376 week high into view
Loss of ema20 near 4287 returns price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 4254.56 friday low breaks the higher-lows line; a break of the 4244 week low voids the double bottom
Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak, then Wed ADP and PCE, could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing and yields
Lower highs from Tuesday's 4376; 4244–4316 range since Thursday with a Friday higher low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the Tuesday rejection at the 4376.03 week high. Wednesday's NY-session slide on firm PMIs and hawkish Fedspeak extended the Tuesday–Thursday drop to the 4244.29 week low. Friday's London rally stalled at 4315.66 (fri high), just past the 50% retrace, before firm durables and capex prints knocked price to 4254.56 (fri low) in NY hours; that higher low bounced but faded again under 4300 psych, leaving price pinned to EMA(20), just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 56 inside the lower-high trendline.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4315.66 fri high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Repeated rejection at 4300 psych keeps the 4244–4316 range intact
Failure to hold 4254.56 fri low undoes the higher low and puts 4244.29 week low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today, JOLTS Tue and ADP/GDP Wed could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in a range · RSI 54 · price 4,288.52
Lower highs all week; 4244–4316 range since Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs all week: 4376 early Tuesday, a 4371.23 lower high into Tuesday's NY session, then 4315.66 on Friday. Hawkish Fed hike pricing and 10y yields above 5.1% drove the Wednesday–Thursday leg down to a 4244.29 week low. Since Thursday price has ranged 4244–4316. Friday's London push met rejection between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Wed-Thu leg, and the NY-session dip after mixed-to-firm US data held a higher low at the 4254.56 Friday low. Price now sits just above EMA(20) and under the 4300 pivot, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,371.23
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4315.66 Friday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the week's lower-high sequence, bringing the 4371.23 lower high back into view
Repeated failure at the 4300 pivot keeps the range capped
Loss of the 4254.56 Friday low and the 4244.29 week low breaks the higher low and reopens the downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today could shift this read; ADP, GDP and Personal Spending on Wed Sep 30 are the larger range-break risk
Lower highs from 4376, 4244–4316 range since Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from Tuesday's 4376 week high to Friday's 4315.66. The heaviest leg came in Wednesday's NY session as ~70% October hike odds and 10y yields above 5.1% weighed. Since Thursday price has based between the 4244 week low and 4316: Friday's London push was rejected at the friday high, and the first-hour-of-NY flush on the US data held at 4254.56, a higher low. Price is now back above ema20 near 4285 with RSI(14) around 57, pressing the 4300 psych level at the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop.
Support: 4,285.00, 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4315.66 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% retracement near 4326
Failure to hold the 4254.56 friday low exposes the 4244 week low and breaks the higher-lows line
Repeated rejection at 4300 psych keeps the 4244–4316 range read intact
Loss of ema20 near 4285 returns price to mid-range
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read into the weekly close
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 47 · price 4,280.37
Lower highs from 4371; 4244–4316 range since Thursday.
The week's dominant move was the slide from 4371 on Tuesday to the 4244 week low on Thursday, with the heaviest selling in Wednesday's NY session as yields and October-hike pricing climbed. Since then price has ranged 4244–4316. Friday's London push stalled at the 4316 friday high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that drop and under the lower-highs line, and was reversed in the first hours of NY after firm US durables and capex beats. Demand stepped in again near the 4255 friday low, extending a short run of higher lows, and price now sits just under EMA(20) around 4282 and the 4300 psych handle, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,282.10, 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4316 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 61.8% fib near 4323
Reclaim of 4300 psych and a hold above ema20 would shift the range toward its upper half
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 4255 friday low exposes the 4244 week low
Break of the 4244 week low confirms a lower low and resumes the downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could move yields and this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; Friday bounce rejected below the 61.8% retracement.
The week's dominant move was the Tuesday-to-Thursday slide from 4376 to the 4244.29 week low. It started in Wednesday's NY session after the blowout US flash PMIs pushed yields higher, and extended through Thursday's London session, with each day printing a lower high. Friday's London rebound stalled at 4315.66, the friday high, just past the 50% retracement of that slide and under the descending lower-highs trendline. The first hour of NY then gave back most of the gain, leaving price below the ema20 and the 4300 round number with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4315.66 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4256.41 friday low exposes the 4244.29 week low; a close below it extends the downtrend
Reclaiming the ema20 and the 4300 round number would restore Friday's higher low versus Thursday
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4,369; double bottom at 4,244 with higher lows.
Gold has been in a downtrend since Wednesday's NY-session PMI beats broke the 4,300 handle. Lower highs run from 4,369 to Friday's high at 4,315.7, and the week low of 4,244.3 was set twice on Thursday in a double bottom. Friday's Asia-to-London rebound on a USD/yield pause stalled short of the 61.8% fib of the 4,369–4,244 drop, mixed Durable Goods left price drifting back toward the ema20 near 4,284, and RSI(14) near 58 sits mid-range with the Friday low at 4,256.4 anchoring the higher lows line.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Friday high 4,315.7 and the 61.8% fib at 4,321.6 breaks the lower highs sequence and opens a path toward the week high at 4,376.0
Loss of the ema20 and the higher lows line toward the Friday low 4,256.4 undercuts the double bottom read
A break of the 4,244.3 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.6%) at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 4244, 4295 neckline broken and retested.
The slide from the 4376 week high picked up pace after Wednesday's hot US PMIs in the NY session, then bottomed twice at the 4244 week low on Thursday to form a double bottom. Friday's London-session rally off the 4256 higher low cleared the 4295 neckline and tagged the 4315.7 Friday high, just above the 50% fib of the weekly drop, as the USD and yields paused. Price has eased back to 4303, above EMA(20) near 4284 with RSI(14) around 59, retesting the neckline zone with the 4344 breakdown level and the week high still overhead.
Support: 4,256.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,315.70, 4,344.00, 4,376.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4295 neckline and the higher-low trendline would negate the double bottom read
H1 close above the 4315.7 Friday high and the 50% fib opens the 4344 breakdown level
Loss of the 4256 higher low exposes the 4244 week low again
Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT, UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT and Hammack at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Downtrend since Tuesday, recovery now testing it · RSI 64 · price 4,311.19
Double bottom at 4244 broken higher; lower-high sequence challenged.
The week high at 4376 capped Tuesday's session, and Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the leg down, extended by hawkish Fedspeak and firm claims to a Thursday double bottom at the 4244 thu low. The London session today lifted price through the 4300 round number and Thursday's 4288 high on a softer USD, the first break of this week's lower-high sequence. Price now sits at the session high near the 50% retracement of the 4376–4244 decline, with RSI(14) at 64 and the ema20 turning up near 4284.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,284.00, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,345.00, 4,376.00
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the 4300 round number puts the breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of the ema20 near 4284 and the higher-lows line from Thursday's low reopens the 4244 thu low
Acceptance above the session high and the 50% retracement exposes the old mon range around 4345, with the week high at 4376 beyond
Lower highs 4376→4303; double bottom at 4244 with Friday higher low at 4256.
Lower highs have stepped down from Tuesday's 4376 week high to Thursday's 4303. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session break below 4290, and Thursday printed a double bottom at the 4244 week low. Friday's Asia-session dip held a higher low at 4256, then London lifted price back above EMA20 and the ema50 into the lower-highs trendline, Thursday's high near 4300 and the 38.2% level of the Wed-Thu drop fib, with RSI(14) near 59 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,288.00, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,303.26, 4,322.70, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4303 thu high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% fib near 4323
Slip back below the ema50 near 4288 exposes the Friday higher low at 4256; loss of the 4244 week low resumes the downtrend
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC
Lower highs from 4376; double bottom at 4244, 4288 neckline cleared.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's rejection at 4376. The dominant leg came in NY hours Wednesday after the blowout US PMIs, and hawkish Fed pricing extended the drop into a double bottom at the 4244 week low on Thursday. Friday's London open pushed price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), through the 4288 neckline and into the 38.2% retrace of the 4376–4244 decline near 4295, just under Thursday's 4303 prior high, with RSI(14) near 60 after high-30s readings at the lows.
Support: 4,278.00, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,303.26, 4,320.38, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4303 prior high opens the 50% retrace near 4310 and the 4320 pmi break area
Above 4320, the 4350 psych level is where Monday–Tuesday rallies faded
Failure to hold ema20 near 4278 puts the 4256 higher low back in play; a break there breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 4244 week low
Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; 4244-4296 range since Thursday.
Tuesday's 4371 retest was the last swing high. Wednesday's PMI beats drove the NY-session slide through 4300, and Thursday's London-NY leg set the weekly low at 4244.3, tested twice. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the asia high of 4295.7, near the 38.2% fib of the 4371-4244 drop, and the dip held the asia low at 4256.4, above the weekly low. Price is back above EMA(20) near 4272 and is pressing the ema50 and descending trendline around 4285, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 4,256.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,285.00, 4,295.70, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 and descending trendline near 4285 would mark the first break of this week's lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the asia high at 4295.7 and the thu high at 4303.3 moves the fib focus to the 50% retracement near 4308
Failure at the asia low of 4256.4 puts the weekly low at 4244.3 back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 4376 top; 4244–4303 consolidation since Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4376 top. Wednesday's PMI beats drove the main leg lower during NY hours, and Thursday's London session set the weekly low at 4244 as firm yields and a bid USD weighed. Since then price has compressed between a higher low at the 4256 asia low and a lower-highs cap at the 4296 asia high and 4303 Thursday high. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) but sits below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 52. Friday's Asia push stalled just under the 38.2% level of the 4371–4244 fib.
Support: 4,272.00, 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,295.68, 4,303.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4296 asia high and 4303 Thursday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the 38.2% fib cap
Failure to hold the 4256 asia low, then the 4244 weekly low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the ema20 near 4272 returns price to the lower half of the consolidation
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4369 since Tuesday, basing above 4244 weekly low.
Gold has printed lower highs all week after failing at 4369-4376 on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Wednesday's PMI beats drove the NY-session break below 4300, and Thursday's London selloff set the 4244 weekly low, which held on a NY retest. Friday's Asia high at 4296 stalled at the descending trendline, just above the 38.2% level of the Wed-Thu drop. Price has since slipped back under EMA(20) near 4271 and is holding above the 4256 session low, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 4,256.41, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,271.00, 4,295.68
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4296 asia high breaks the trendline and the lower-high sequence, opening the 50% level of the Wed-Thu drop near 4307
Failure to hold the 4256 session low exposes the 4244 weekly low; a close below it extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift yields and USD
UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the main swing factor for this read
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4376 Tuesday high. The strong US PMIs during Wednesday's NY session drove the main leg lower, and Thursday's London and NY sessions both found the 4244 week low, with firm yields and a bid USD keeping the pressure on. Friday's Asia session bounce stalled at 4295.7, the fib 38.2 retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 4271, with RSI(14) sitting in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,271.00, 4,295.68, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 4271 and then the fib 38.2 at 4295.7 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4244 week low confirms a lower-low and extends the weekly downtrend
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A retest of the 4376 tuesday high region requires a full reversal of this week's structure
Lower highs daily since Monday open; base forming 4244–4296.
Gold has set a lower high every day since Monday's 4,383 week high. Wednesday's NY-session slide after the blowout US PMIs did most of the damage, and Thursday's London push, with 10y yields above 5.1%, printed the week low at 4,244, which was tested twice. Friday's Asia bounce hit a rejection at 4,296, just under the 38.2% fib of the week's drop and the lower-high trendline, and price has slipped back beneath the ema20 near 4,272 with RSI(14) flat around 48 and the asian low at 4,264 immediately below.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu high at 4,303 breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Loss of the asian low at 4,264 exposes the week low at 4,244; a close below it extends the lower-low structure
Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durables at 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; double low at 4244, higher lows into Asia.
Gold has printed lower highs since fading from 4383 early Monday. Wednesday's PMI beat drove the break below 4300 in the London-NY transition, and Thursday's London session extended the slide to a 4244 week low as yields and the USD firmed. Two tests of 4244 held into NY, and the Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) to a 4295.7 asian high, roughly the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday drop, with price now pinned just under EMA(50) near 4290 and RSI(14) at 52 inside a tightening consolidation between the higher lows and the 4300 cap.
Support: 4,276.60, 4,264.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,290.20, 4,295.70, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4303 thu high clears the 4300 cap and lower-highs line, opening the 50% fib near 4308 and 4322
Loss of the 4264 asian low and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 4244 week low and the double bottom
Pullbacks holding EMA20 near 4277 keep the rebound structure intact; a close back below it re-exposes the lows
Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30), UoM inflation expectations (14:00) and Hammack (18:00) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; double bottom at 4244 testing the 4288–4303 cap.
The week has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's fade from 4383. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the NY-session break below 4300, and Thursday's London-session drop set a week low at 4244.29, with the NY retest holding at 4244.79. Since then a rising line of higher lows has lifted price back above the EMA(20) near 4276 and into the EMA(50) near 4291, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~56 from sub-40 readings at the lows. Asia's 4295.68 high stalled just under Thursday's 4303 high, near the 38.2% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 4,276.00, 4,264.37, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,290.80, 4,303.26, 4,330.24
What it said to watch
H1 close above Thursday's 4303 high confirms the double bottom and opens the 61.8% fib at 4330
Loss of the asia low at 4264 breaks the rising line of higher lows and puts the 4244 week low back in play
Failure to hold the EMA(20) near 4276 returns the read to the week's lower-high sequence
Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Daily lower highs from 4383; double low at 4244 with higher lows since.
Gold has printed a lower high every day since Monday's 4375 open. The heaviest leg came in Wednesday's NY session after the PMI beats pushed yields above 5.1%, and Thursday's London session extended the slide to a 4244 week low. The NY retest held 4244.8, and higher lows since have lifted price back above EMA(20) near 4274, though it remains below EMA(50) around 4290 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s. Price is now pressing Thursday's lower-high trendline and the 4283–4288 lower high, which is the neckline of the double low.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,288.50, 4,303.30, 4,330.20
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288.5 lower high and the lower-highs trendline completes the double bottom; 4303 thu high and the 50% fib near 4314 sit above
Rejection at 4288 keeps the daily lower-highs sequence intact below EMA(50)
Loss of the 4264 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 4244 week low back in focus
A recovery toward the 4330 fib 61.8 would retrace most of Wednesday's PMI-driven leg
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC and Hammack 18:00 UTC could shift October hike pricing and this read
Daily lower highs and lower lows; 4244–4289 band since Thursday London.
Each session high has come in lower since Monday's 4383 area. Wednesday's NY slide on the blowout US PMIs and Thursday's London push to a 4244 week low extended the downtrend as yields and the USD firmed. Since then price has compressed in a 4244–4289 band below EMA(50), with the Thursday NY bounce capped at the 4288 swing high and RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-40s. In the Asia session price is pinned at EMA(20) near 4270 and the lower-highs trendline, with the 4264 asia low the nearest floor.
Support: 4,264.40, 4,244.30
Resistance: 4,270.00, 4,288.50, 4,303.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4288 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence and leaves a double-bottom shape off the 4244 week low
Failure to hold the 4244 week low confirms another lower-low in the downtrend
Close above the 4303 prior high, near the 50% level of the Wednesday drop fib, puts the $4,300 pivot back in play
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read