Lower highs from 4376; 4244–4316 range since Thursday, gap lower at the week open.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4376 rejection. The main leg lower came through Wednesday's London and NY hours as October hike pricing and 10y yields above 5% weighed, and Thursday's two tests of 4244 set the weekly low. Friday's London rally stalled at the 4315.66 friday high, just above the 50% fib of the weekly drop, and faded in NY. The week has now reopened with a gap below Friday's 4286 close, leaving price under the weekly open at 4271 and ema20 near 4283, with RSI(14) near 37 and sitting just above the friday low at 4254.56.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.29, 4,230.00
Resistance: 4,271.17, 4,286.06, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 4254.56 exposes the 4244 weekly low and the 4230 psych floor
Recovery through the weekly open at 4271 and the 4286 gap fill (ema20 near 4283) would neutralise the reopening gap
Close above the friday high at 4315.66, just above the 50% fib of the weekly drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak, then Wed ADP/PCE, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4376; 4244–4316 range since Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's $4,376 week high. Strong US PMIs and hawkish Fedspeak drove Wednesday's slide, and Thursday made a $4,244 week low. Friday's London-session rebound stalled at the $4,315.66 friday high, just above the 50% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, and it was rejected into the NY open while the $4,254.56 friday low held as a higher low. Monday's open gapped about $13 below the friday close to $4,273, back under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,286.06, 4,300.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the friday close at 4286.06 fills the Monday gap and returns price above EMA(20)
Acceptance above the 4300 round number and the friday high at 4315.66 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the friday low at 4254.56 breaks the higher lows line and exposes the week low at 4244.29
Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak and Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4376; 4244–4316 range since Thursday.
Gold printed a sequence of lower highs from Tuesday's 4376 week high. Hawkish Fedspeak and 10y yields above 5% drove Wednesday's leg down to a double bottom at the 4244 week low on Thursday. Friday's rebound stalled at 4315.66, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4376–4244 drop, and was rejected during NY hours back to the 4254.56 friday low, a higher low. Price closed the week at 4286, just under the 4300 round number and pinned between EMA(20) near 4285 and EMA(50) near 4288, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 4,285.50, 4,254.56, 4,244.29
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4300 round number and the 4315.66 friday high breaks the lower-high line from 4371 and the 61.8% fib cap
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4285 at the reopen puts the 4254.56 friday low and the higher-low line back in play
Close below the 4244 week low negates the double bottom and extends the downtrend
Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak, then Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read