Lower highs from 4510 to 4399 to 4371 with flat lows near 4235-4245.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 4510.88 peak, most recently rejected at the 4400 range top and again near 4371, while lows keep holding in the 4235-4245 band, the swing low and this week's low. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs pushed the 10y above 5.1% and broke price through 4300, now former support, leaving it below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 29 dollars from the triple-digit spikes earlier in the window, a compressed setup pressed against a flat floor under a falling trendline.
Support: 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,340.20, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235 swing low confirms a lower low and breaks the multi-week floor
Recovery above 4300 former supp shifts focus to the fib 61.8 at 4340 and the falling trendline near 4358
Only a close above the 4400 range top breaks the lower-high sequence
Friday's Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 4510 early-month peak, with rebounds capped at 4402, 4399 and then the 4371 lower high. Price is back at the 4244 swing low just above the 4235 sept low after blowout US PMIs pushed the 10y above 5.1% and firmed the USD. ATR(14) near 2,950 pips has compressed from the early-month expansion, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 4300–4305 old support zone (38.2% fib of the 4399–4244 leg) as the first overhead test and the fib 61.8 at 4340 above it.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,305.00, 4,340.23, 4,371.23
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235 sept low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 4200 round number
Reclaim of 4305 old support would put the fib 61.8 at 4340 and the 4371 lower high back in play
Break of the lower-high line (near 4358) would challenge the downtrend read
Fri Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Lower highs 4510→4399→4371 over a flat 4235–4244 base.
A sequence of lower highs from 4510 through the 4399 swing high and the 4371 lower high has squeezed gold into a descending-triangle shape. Price is now retesting the 4244 swing low and the 4235 3-wk low beneath both EMAs. The slide tracks 10y yields above 5.1% and firmer October hike pricing after Wednesday's PMI beats. RSI near 35 is soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) has contracted to roughly $30 per bar from the $40–50 regime of early September, a compression typical ahead of a range break.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,371.23
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235 3-wk low breaks the flat base and extends the lower-high downtrend
Reclaim of the 4300 psych level, near the 38.2% fib of the 4399→4244 leg, would ease the downside read
H4 close above the 4371 lower high invalidates the lower-highs trendline structure; 4399 swing high above
Paulson today, Williams Fri and Fri Durable Goods/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs inside a 4235-4400 range, price in lower third.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 peak. The rebound from the 4235 range low met rejection at the 4399.5 range top, then rolled back through the 4300 psych level to a fresh week low near 4273.7, with hot US PMIs, 5%+ yields and October hike pricing driving the leg lower. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 back under EMA50, near the 78.6% of the impulse fib, and the lower-highs trendline caps around 4359, just above mid-range at 4350; ATR(14) near 2,950 pips has compressed from the early-window expansion.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,253.74, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,350.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 4253.74 swing low and 4235 range low would confirm a range break lower
Recovery above the 4300 psych level and the lower-highs trendline near 4359 would break the lower-high sequence and reopen the mid-range and range top
Failure to hold the week low at 4273.74 means the impulse fib retracement is running beyond 78.6%
Lower highs since 4510.88 pressing a flat 4235-4290 floor.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 4510.88 early-month peak: 4442.91, 4434.76, 4399.53 and now 4376.03. Lows keep holding a flat 4235-4290 floor, leaving a compressing descending structure with price back at the week low near 4274. Yesterday's blowout US PMIs revived October hike bets and pushed 10y yields above 5.1%, which knocked price out of the 4340-4360 range pivot and below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 3000 pips is well down from the early-window regime, so the contraction is building against that floor.
Support: 4,273.74, 4,253.74, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,350.00, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4253.74 swing low opens the 4235.03 window low and breaks the multi-week floor
Recovery back above 4300 psych, then the 4350 range pivot, would neutralise the latest leg down
Lower-high trendline near 4370-4376 remains the structural cap; a close above it breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) plus Williams, Hammack and Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4510.88 inside a 4235-4400 range; retesting the swing low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 peak. The rebound off the 4235.03 six-week low stalled at 4399.53, right at the 61.8% fib of that leg. Subsequent highs at 4376 and 4371 form a descending lower-highs trendline. Hot US PMIs and 10y yields above 5.1% pushed price back under the 4300 handle, and it is now pressing the 4274.79 swing low below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 29 dollars is well off the late-August expansion, so this is a compressed grind rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 4,274.79, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,350.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4300 handle and 4305 turns the swing-low test into a false break
Failure to hold the 4274.79 swing low exposes the 4235.03 six-week low
A close above the lower-highs trendline near 4360 and the 4350 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Williams/Hammack/Paulson on October hike odds could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi meeting or Hormuz headlines could revive the haven bid