Lower highs from 3923.78; weekend gap up into 50–61.8% retracement.
Friday's 3%+ slide on hawkish Fed repricing carried gold from 3990 through 3900 to a 3870.26 friday low. Sunday's reopen gapped about $17 above the 3875.80 friday close. Early Asia has capped at a 3902.23 session high, a retest of broken 3900 sitting just under the 61.8% retracement of the leg from the 3923.78 swing high.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,875.80, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,902.23, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3902.23 session high and 61.8% fib opens the 3923.78 swing high
Failure to hold the 3891.30 gap low puts the 3875.80 friday close gap-fill in play
A break below the 3870.26 friday low resumes the lower-low sequence
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC), then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, gap-up bounce at Asia open · RSI 57 · price 3,896.90
Lower highs and lower lows into Friday's 3870.26 low; Monday gap up stalling at the 50% retracement.
Friday's NY-session liquidation broke 3900 and grinding selling printed a 3870.26 friday low as hawkish-Fed pricing and cross-asset de-risking weighed. The Asia open gapped about $17 above the 3875.80 close, and the bounce is stalling at the 3902.23 session high, where the 50–61.8% retracement of the 3923.78–3870.26 leg sits; EMA50 is still overhead.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,875.80, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,902.23, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3902.23 session high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 3923.78 swing high
Loss of the 3891.30 session low exposes the gap fill at the 3875.80 Friday close
Break below the 3870.26 friday low extends the lower-low sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC), then Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, gap-up bounce at Asia open · RSI 54 · price 3,894.91
Weekend gap above Friday close, new Asia range forming under 61.8% fib.
Friday's NY-session liquidation drove a lower-high, lower-low sequence down to a 3870.26 swing low. Gold opened the week with a ~$17 gap up from the 3875.80 Friday close. The early Asia session is holding a 3891.30–3901.33 range, capped just under the 61.8% fib of the 3923.78–3870.26 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,875.80, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,901.33, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
Close above the 3901.33 session high and the 61.8% fib opens the path to the 3923.78 swing high
Failure to hold the 3891.30 session low puts the 3875.80 gap fill and 3870.26 swing low back in view
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC), then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low into the weekly close · RSI 38 · price 3,875.80
Lower highs and lower lows since the London break of the Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low near 3987. NY then extended the hawkish-Fed selloff to 3891.59, and the bounce to 3923.78 faded into a lower-highs grind. Late NY set a fresh friday low at 3870.54, below the $3,880 YTD low cited in the digest, and the week closed at 3875.8 with RSI(14) near 38 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 3,870.54, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,891.59, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 3887.73 bounce high and the 3891.59 prior NY low breaks the lower-highs sequence
3900 round number sits atop the 38.2–50% fib zone of the late-NY drop; rejection there keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 3870.54 friday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3850 round number
Monday open gap risk after the weekend; ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into the weekly close · RSI 37 · price 3,875.80
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke in London.
London broke below Friday's Asian range (3987–4026), and NY extended the slide to a 3870.54 session low near the close, through the 3880 YTD-low area as liquidation outweighed haven demand. The late bounce to 3887.73 was rejected under the descending highs, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 3,870.54
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
A close below the 3870.54 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 3887.73 late bounce and the descending highs line breaks the intraday sequence, with the 3900 round number next above
The 3923.78 NY bounce sits near the 38.2% level of the selloff fib, an area to watch for rejection if tested
A gap at the Sunday reopen away from 3875.80 would reset the session structure
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC), then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from London into the NY close.
Friday's NY session extended the London breakdown from the 3999 London high to a 3870.3 session low. The digest ties the slide to hawkish-Fed tone and cross-asset liquidation. Lower highs at the 3923.8 swing high and the 3887.7 bounce high capped each recovery, and the late bounce was rejected into the weekly close with RSI(14) near 37, not oversold.
Support: 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3887.7 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline from 3923.8
Failure to hold the 3870 session low extends the lower-low sequence
3900 round number is the first area to watch for rejection or break on any recovery
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read after the reopen
22:08 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact into the close · RSI 36 · price 3,875.80
Asian range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain off 3923.8, late bounce rejected.
London broke below the Asian range low near 3987, and NY extended the selloff to 3891.6 on firm USD, hawkish Fed talk and cross-asset liquidation. After a stall at the 3923.8 swing high, price slid through 3900 psych and the 3880 floor to a 3870.5 session low late in NY. The late bounce to 3887.7 was rejected and price closed the week at 3875.8 with the lower-highs line intact; RSI(14) is near 36, soft but not oversold.
Support: 3,870.50, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,887.70, 3,900.00, 3,923.80
What it said to watch
A close above the 3887.7 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, with 3900 psych next overhead
A reclaim of the 3897–3903 zone (50–61.8% fib of the last leg) puts the 3923.8 swing high back in play
A break of the 3870.5 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 3850 psych
Weekend gap risk at the weekly open; ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at Mon 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee, could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, late-session base forming · RSI 38 · price 3,875.80
Lower highs and lower lows; tight 3870–3888 box into Friday close.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3987 in London, then slid through the 3900 round number during NY hours. Hawkish Fed rhetoric and cross-asset liquidation drove the move, and the low came in at 3870.26 late in the session. The rebound stalled at 3887.73, a rejection under the descending line from the 3923.78 NY bounce, and the week closed at 3875.8 near the session low.
Support: 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
A break below the 3870.26 session low extends the lower-low sequence from Monday's open.
A close back above the 3887.73 rebound high breaks the descending line; reclaiming the 3900 round number would shift the read to a bounce.
The 38.2% retrace of the 3999–3870 drop sits near 3920, close to the 3923.78 NY bounce high.
The weekend gap at Monday's open could reset the 3870–3888 box.
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read.
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact into weekly close · RSI 37 · price 3,875.80
Lower-high/lower-low chain below the broken Asian range low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 3987. After the NY open, a liquidation leg on hawkish-Fed, firmer-USD flows took gold through 3900 to the 3891.59 prior low. A lower high at 3923.78 then faded into a 3870.54 session low. The late-NY bounce capped at 3887.73 under the lower-high line, leaving RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs into Friday's close.
Support: 3,870.54
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,891.59, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
A close above the 3887.73 bounce high and the 3891.59 prior low (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain
A failure to hold the 3870.54 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A gap at the weekly open away from the session low would reset intraday structure
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid on Mon 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Friday close · RSI 37 · price 3,875.80
Asian range broken lower in London; NY extended to fresh lows, lower-high chain intact.
Gold lost the 3987–4026 Asian range in London, and NY hours added a liquidation leg to 3891.59 as hawkish-Fed pricing and cross-asset selling gave it no haven bid. The session then ground out lower highs into a 3870.26 session low under the 3880 ytd low; a late spike to 3887.73 was rejected and the week closed at 3875.8, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,880.00, 3,887.73, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 3887.73 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 3900 psych level is the next cap
Failure to hold the 3870.26 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Holding under the broken 3880 ytd low keeps it acting as resistance
Weekend gap risk at the Asia session open
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into Friday close · RSI 36 · price 3,875.80
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; late NY chop at the session low.
The 4022–3987 Asian range broke lower at London open. NY extended the slide through 3900 to a 3870.54 session low, consistent with the hawkish-Fed and liquidation backdrop in the digest. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 3887.73 swing high under the lower-highs trendline, and price closed the week back below the old ytd low near 3880, with RSI(14) near 36 and short of oversold.
Support: 3,870.54
Resistance: 3,880.00, 3,887.73, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 3887.73 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would break the late-NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3870.54 session low extends the lower-low chain
Psych 3900 sits near the 50% of the bounce-high fib (3923.78 to 3870.54), the next cap if 3880 is reclaimed
A weekend gap at the open is possible; Mon 15:00 UTC ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid could materially shift this read