Lower-high/lower-low staircase since the 3 Sep peak at 4510.88; successive ranges breaking lower.
Gold has stepped lower since the 3 Sep peak at 4510.88. September held a 4235–4400 range and October held a 4066–4227 band, each breaking lower. The 22 Oct leg took out 4100 and set a prior low at 3975.7. Last week's rebound stalled at a lower high of 4082.67 before Friday's ~$146 range bar printed a new YTD low at 3870.26, extending the downtrend after the hawkish Fed hold and Thursday's GDP beat, with cross-asset liquidation adding pressure. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and daily RSI near 25 is in genuinely oversold territory.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,800.00
Resistance: 3,975.70, 4,082.67, 4,115.00
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) plus Goolsbee could materially shift this read
Daily close below the 3870 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3800 round number
A new low with RSI holding above its current reading would set up rsi divergence (bullish)
Reclaiming the 3975.7 prior low on a daily close would mark Friday's break as a false break
A close above the 4082.67 lower high, near the fib 38.2% at ~4115, breaks the lower-high chain
US midterms (Tue 3 Nov) are a USD volatility risk for the trend read
Lower-high / lower-low chain since early-September peak.
Gold has printed a clean lower-high / lower-low chain since the 4511 peak on 2 September. The 28 September break of the 4245 base gave way to an October range of roughly 4065–4225, and that range break came in the week of 19 October. Friday's ~$150 drop to the 3870 ytd low followed the hawkish Fed hold and the Q3 GDP beat, with cross-asset liquidation adding pressure, and it left price well below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29, oversold. The bounce off the 3976 oct low peaked at a lower high at 4083 and the move sits under the descending trendline, so supply has capped each weekly recovery attempt.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,800.00
Resistance: 3,975.70, 4,082.67, 4,114.98
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 3870 ytd low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3800 round number
Reclaiming the 3976 oct low would mark the first failure of Friday's breakdown
Close above the 4083 lower high breaks the LH sequence; the fib 38.2 at 4115 sits just above
RSI below 30 is a real oversold reading on this timeframe, so a short-covering bounce would not by itself change the trend read
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid on Mon 2 Nov, then the US midterms on 3 Nov, could materially shift this read