Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD weekly chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
08:16 UTC
Downtrend after major top · RSI 35 · price 4,058.03
Lower highs, lower lows since Q1 peak.
The multi-quarter uptrend from 2640 topped at 5598 in Q1 and has reverted sharply — the worst quarter in 13 years, tied to hawkish-Fed repricing and heavier real yields. Price now sits below the W1 EMA(50) with a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and the 3941 YTD low is the macro pivot. The bounce back to ~4058 is corrective within that decline, still capped well under the 4382 swing high.
Support: 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,382.00
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below 3941 ytd low opens the 3885 support zone
- Reclaim of 4382 swing high needed to break the lower-high sequence
- US NFP today (12:30 UTC) could materially shift the near-term read
07:58 UTC
Reversal, down-leg from record high · RSI 39 · price 4,058.03
Macro uptrend broken, lower highs since Q1 2026.
A multi-quarter uptrend from the Q1 2025 base near 2615 peaked around 5600 in Q1 2026; since then a sharp reversal — the worst quarter in over a decade at roughly -14% — has dragged price back to the 4000 area, and the 2025 rally is now about 50% retraced. Price trades below the W1 EMA(50), so the macro-bull structure is broken and the regime has flipped to reversion. The 3941 YTD low sits just beneath the 4000 psychological pivot, and the current lift off that zone is corrective within the broader down-leg.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
What it said to watch
- Loss of 4000 re-exposes the 3941 YTD low
- NFP today 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- Reclaim of the W1 EMA(50) would question the down-leg