Gold spent most of the window grinding lower from 4500 to a 3942 YTD-low base, but the soft 57K NFP print has fuelled a rebound that reclaimed the 4000 psychological level and pushed price back above the H4 EMA20 and EMA50. A higher low above 3942 is now taking shape, with the bounce stalling into the 4144 swing high. ATR remains elevated, consistent with the two-way volatility around the payroll shock.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,144.00, 4,210.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4144 opens the path toward 4210
Failure to hold 4000 reopens the 3942 YTD-low zone
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Gold spent three weeks in a multi-day downtrend off 4499, an ~11% slide that bottomed twice near the 3942 YTD low. The soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) undercut the strong-USD regime and sparked a rebound; price has since reclaimed the 4083 prior cap and is pressing the 4144 recent high. The double bottom off 3942 and reclaim above the fast EMAs mark the first structural repair, though ATR remains elevated after the June rout.
Support: 4,083.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,144.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4083 negates the breakout and re-exposes the 4000 psych level
Rejection at the 4144 recent high keeps the lower-high downtrend structure intact
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Gold has been in a clear H4 downtrend from the 4490 area, printing lower highs and lower lows into a base at 3942/3959 that now reads as a double bottom. The 57K NFP miss sparked a dovish repricing that squeezed price back above EMA20 and off the lows, with a poke to 4108 before settling near 4064. ATR(14) remains elevated at ~40 dollars, so the swings are still wide and the broader downtrend has not been structurally broken.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,115.00, 4,220.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4115 swing high would extend the recovery toward 4220
Failure to hold the 4000 psych and 3942 ytd low confirms a fresh lower low
Fed's Daly speech could reframe the post-NFP dovish read
Structural downtrend from the early-June 4495 highs pressed into the 3942 YTD low, which was swept and reclaimed as a big NFP miss (57K vs 110K) sparked a short-covering bounce to 4108. Price is now consolidating below the 4088-4108 recovery ceiling with the 4000 psych level acting as the pivot. ATR remains elevated, so ranges are still wide despite the stall.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,088.00, 4,108.01
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4000 psych reopens the 3942 ytd low
reclaim of the 4108 bounce high needed to challenge the descending lower highs
Fed Daly speech today and ISM Services Mon could materially shift this read
H4 remains a downtrend of lower highs from 4382, but price is bouncing off a double bottom around the 3941 YTD low, tagging 4108 on short-covering after the ADP miss and non-committal Warsh, per the macro read. Price now consolidates near 4070, back above EMA20 but capped by the descending EMA50. ATR is elevated, reflecting the sharp mid-window slide and choppy rebound.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,108.00, 4,210.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4108 swing high opens the path toward 4210 prior high
Failure to hold the 4000 psych pivot re-exposes the 3941 ytd low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) is the pivotal catalyst and could materially shift this read
Lower highs into 3941 base, short-covering rebound.
Gold remains in a broad H4 downtrend from the 4500 area, printing a fresh seven-month low at 3941 before a short-covering bounce back above the 4000 pivot, helped by the ADP and ISM misses. Price is now consolidating in the 4030-4115 band, reclaiming the EMA20 but still capped below the declining EMA50 and the 4115 swing high. A twin low near 3960/3942 gives a tentative double-bottom base, but the sequence of lower highs keeps the larger structure heavy.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,115.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) is the pivotal catalyst for this read
H4 close above 4115 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 4000 psych pivot re-exposes the 3941 ytd low
Break below 3941 confirms a fresh lower low
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 50 · price 4,071.32
Lower highs, base near 3960.
Multi-week downtrend from 4484 into a YTD low at 3941 marked gold's worst stretch in years on hawkish-Fed repricing and fading haven demand. Price has since carved a double-bottom base around 3960 and rebounded through 4000, with the 4088 recent high now the immediate cap. ATR remains elevated, keeping swings wide as the market waits on payrolls.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,088.00, 4,115.00, 4,220.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 4088 opens the path back toward 4115/4220
Loss of 3960 swing low re-exposes the 3941 ytd low
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 45 · price 4,033.70
Lower highs, lower lows; testing 4000 pivot from below.
Gold remains in a clean H4 downtrend, sliding to a 7-month low near 3941 on the hawkish-Fed repricing and firmer USD/yields. Price staged a sharp bounce to 4108 but was rejected straight back below the 4000 pivot, leaving the recovery unconvincing. A bullish RSI divergence has been forming against the lows without a confirmed structural shift.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,108.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) is the pivotal catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 4108 would break the sequence of lower highs
Break of 3941 opens the 3930/3885 support zone
Sustained reclaim of the 4000 psych level needed to signal relief