Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs into the fresh YTD low at 3942 as the hawkish-Fed repricing and higher yields weighed on bullion this quarter. A sharp short-covering spike stalled at 4115 and has since faded back to 4036, keeping the descending lower-highs structure intact. ATR(14) near 4550 pips shows the range is still expanding, with the 4050 pivot capping and 4000 the immediate psych line below.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,115.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 3942 confirms lower-low, opens the 3930-3885 zone
Reclaim of 4050 and 4115 needed to break the lower-highs sequence
Gold has been in a persistent H4 downtrend since the early-window 4470 area, bottoming twice near 3941 — the YTD low — as hawkish-Fed repricing and firm yields crushed bullion. The twin lows at 3964 and 3942 form a double bottom, and the latest bar snapped sharply back above the 4000 psych level to 4108 before settling at 4084. Descending resistance off the mid-window lower highs still caps rallies into the 4108 recent high.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,108.00, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu Jul 2 12:30 UTC is the decisive catalyst and could reset this read
H4 close above 4108 recent high breaks descending resistance and opens 4150 swing high
Loss of 3941 ytd low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 3885 socgen low zone
H4 remains in a clear downtrend — a run of lower highs and lower lows carried price from ~4445 to a seven-month low at 3942, capping gold's worst quarter in over a decade as hawkish-Fed repricing lifted yields and the dollar. Price has since bounced back above the 4000 psychological pivot to 4031, with the lower low at 3942 accompanied by less momentum, hinting downside may be partly exhausted. The 4096 swing high remains the near-term ceiling below the falling EMA50.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh (13:00 UTC) and ISM PMI could materially shift this read
A close back below 3942 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence toward 3885
Reclaim of 4096 would neutralise the descending lower-high structure
NFP Thursday (12:30 UTC) is the primary swing factor into next week
Persistent downtrend since the early-June breakdown from ~4470, printing steady lower highs and lower lows as hawkish Fed repricing crushed bullion. Price is now basing around 3960 just above the 3941 YTD low, with a tentative bullish RSI divergence into the stretched decline. ATR remains elevated — a trend-expansion regime, not compression.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,050.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3941 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 3930/3885 zone
Reclaim of 4050 needed to ease the lower-high structure
ADP 12:15 UTC + ISM 14:00 and Thursday NFP could materially shift this read
Gold has been rolling over since the ~4500 monthly high, shedding roughly 11% on the hawkish Fed repricing and firmer real yields. Price found demand at 3942, squeezed back to 4096, and has since faded to hover around 4000 — a lower high against the prior swings, with ATR still elevated signalling the down-move is not yet exhausted. Both EMAs cap price from above and the descending resistance off 4220/4096 remains intact.
Support: 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,096.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3942 confirms a lower-low and opens the 3885 socgen zone
Reclaim of 4096 bounce high needed to challenge the descending lower-highs line
ADP 12:15 UTC and Warsh 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 remains a clean downtrend, gold shedding roughly 14% on the quarter under a hawkish-Fed repricing and pushing to a fresh YTD low at 3941 before stabilising just above the 4000 psych pivot. Price has carved a series of lower highs, but the marginal new low near 3942 came with slowing downside momentum and a bullish RSI divergence, and price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 4096 swing high caps any relief attempt.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,160.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3941 ytd low opens 3930/3885
H4 close above 4096 swing high needed to confirm relief bounce toward 4160
ADP + Fed Chair Warsh (Wed) and Thu NFP-week earnings could materially shift this read