Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend off the 4490 area, but the slide has stalled with a double bottom near 3940-3960 and a bullish RSI divergence as price held the YTD low — consistent with a stretched, oversold tape on hawkish-Fed repricing. The bounce has so far stalled around the 4060 pivot, leaving price pinned just under EMA20 and well below EMA50. Wide ATR(14) flags an expanded, two-way regime rather than compression.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,060.00, 4,096.00
What it said to watch
Close above 4060 pivot would open the path back to 4096 swing high
Break below 3941 ytd low confirms a lower-low and exposes 3885
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Warsh (13:00 UTC) Jul 1 could materially shift this read
18:54 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 47 · price 4,027.82
Lower highs/lower lows, basing at YTD low.
H4 remains in a clear downtrend off the 4382 swing high, shedding roughly 10% into the 3941 YTD low amid hawkish-Fed USD strength and ETF outflows. Price has carved a two-way base in the 4000-4050 pivot zone, with bargain buyers repeatedly defending the 4000 psych level and a tentative bullish RSI divergence into the lows — but no confirmed structural shift yet. ATR(14) stays elevated, reflecting an expansionary, headline-driven tape.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) + Warsh (13:00) + ISM could materially shift this read
H4 close below 3941 confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 3930/3885 cluster
Reclaim of the 4050 pivot opens the path back to 4100
Gold remains in a clear multi-week downtrend off the 4530 area, having printed a fresh seven-month low at 3942 before recovering to reclaim the 4000 round level — the hawkish-Fed repricing and firmer USD that stripped the haven bid still frame the structure. The drop to 3942 came on shallower RSI weakness than the prior lows, a tentative bullish divergence, and price now sits just above EMA20 while EMA50 caps overhead. The 4096 range high marks the ceiling of the recent multi-day band.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00, 3,820.00
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,160.00
What it said to watch
Close below 3942 swing low confirms lower-low continuation toward 3820 support
Reclaim above 4096 range high needed to extend the relief bounce toward 4160 resistance
Wed ADP + Warsh speech could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 46 · price 4,032.50
Lower highs and lower lows, $4000 reclaimed.
Gold has been in a clean H4 downtrend since the early-month break from 4540, carving lower highs and lower lows down to a 3942 swing low as the hawkish-Fed/sticky-inflation regime and US-Iran de-escalation drained the haven bid. Price has since recaptured the $4000 psychological pivot and is pressing back toward EMA20, but the descending lower-high sequence remains intact below EMA50. ATR(14) stays elevated, keeping daily ranges wide into Wednesday's ADP/Warsh/ISM block.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3960 support shelf opens the path toward the 3820 zone
Recapture of 4100 prior high would challenge the lower-high structure
ADP/Warsh/ISM (Wed) could materially shift this read
Persistent downtrend on H4 with lower highs since the 4530 peak; gold stayed heavy as US-Iran de-escalation drained the haven bid and a hawkish Fed capped rallies. The relief bounce to the 4096 shelf was rejected and price has rolled back to retest the 3942 swing low. ATR(14) remains elevated, consistent with trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3942 confirms continuation toward the 3900 pivot
Reclaim of the 4096 shelf needed to ease the downside read
ADP and Warsh (Wed) plus NFP (Thu) are catalysts that could shift this read
Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend after cracking sub-4000 to a 7-month low at 3964; the rebound toward the 4096 prior high stalled and price is rolling back toward the 4000 psych pivot. Sticky US data and a firmer USD continue to cap rallies, with the bounce read as stabilization rather than reversal. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR remains elevated, keeping the descending structure intact.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4000 reopens 3964 swing low then 3900
Reclaim of 4096 prior high needed to challenge the downtrend
Wed ADP + Warsh speech could materially shift this read