Persistent downtrend across the window with a clean sequence of lower highs from 4382 to 4220 to 4096; price broke 4000 to a 7-month low at 3959 before a corrective bounce that stalled and rolled back toward the 4000 pivot. The hawkish-Fed, firm-dollar regime continues to cap rallies while easing Iran tensions strip the haven bid. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR still elevated, keeping the down-leg's volatility intact.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 4096 would challenge the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the 4000 round number and 3960 swing low confirms a fresh lower low toward 3900
ADP, Warsh speech and ISM Manufacturing Wed could materially shift this read
Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend, having broken below 4000 on June 25 to a 7-month low near 3960 before stabilizing in a 4000-4096 range. Price now sits at 4026, back below EMA20 and EMA50 after fading the 4096 two-day high, with buyers defending the 4000 pivot. The tape is heavy into a data-loaded NFP week.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3960 reopens 3900
Reclaim of 4096 needed to challenge the lower-high sequence
ADP / Warsh / ISM cluster Wed could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 46 · price 4,040.93
Lower highs, lower lows; relief bounce capped.
Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend, cracking below the 4000 psych pivot to a seven-month low near 3964 before a relief bounce stalled at the 4096 Friday high. Twin lows at 3964/3972 hint at a tentative double bottom, but price has since rolled back toward 4040 and sits below the H4 EMA50. ATR(14) stays elevated, reflecting an expansionary, trending regime rather than compression.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,964.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4000 reopens the 3964 swing low then 3900 long-term support
Reclaim and close above 4096 friday high would ease immediate downside pressure
ADP / ISM / Warsh cluster on Jul 1 could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilise · RSI 46 · price 4,062.64
Lower highs, basing above 4000 after 7-month low.
Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend, having broken the 4000 round number to print a seven-month low at 3964 before a relief bounce capped at the 4096 two-day high. Price is now consolidating near 4060 as the debasement trade unwinds on hawkish-Fed bets, with dip-buying holding it above 4000. ATR(14) stays elevated, keeping ranges wide into NFP week.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,964.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,145.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4096 negates the lower-high sequence and opens 4145
Loss of 4000 reopens 3964 then the 3900 long-term support
Wed ADP/ISM/Warsh cluster could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 49 · price 4,067.87
Lower highs / lower lows, base forming at 3960.
H4 has been in a sustained downtrend since the early-month break from 4525, accelerating after the June 25 crack below 4000 on hawkish-Fed/firm-USD flows. The 3983-3960 zone was defended twice this week and price has clawed back above the 4000 handle, with in-line Core PCE allowing the relief bounce. Momentum stalled near 4096 and price is now consolidating around 4067 below the falling EMA50 — ATR remains elevated, so the move is still expansionary rather than compressing.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4096 swing high opens the path to 4150
Failure to hold the 4000 pivot and a break of the 3960 base opens 3900 long-term support
ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) plus Warsh speech could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing after base · RSI 47 · price 4,059.19
Lower highs / lower lows, basing near 3960.
H4 remains in a multi-week downtrend that drove gold below $4,000 to a ~3960 floor, but a double-bottom base around 3959-3972 has held twice and price has recovered toward the 50% retracement near 4090. The relief bounce follows in-line PCE and a stalling USD; current 4059 sits back above EMA20 but well under the falling EMA50, keeping structure broadly bearish. The 4096 swing high caps the recovery for now.
Support: 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,096.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4096 reopens the 4100 prior zone
Loss of 3960 floor reasserts the downtrend
ADP/ISM and Warsh on Wed could materially shift this read