22:08 UTC
Downtrend since the Jan-2026 peak, pressing yearly low · RSI 31 · price 3,902.44
Lower highs (5598, 4889, 4696) and lower lows (4099, 3942, 3870); below a falling EMA50.
Gold has been in a corrective downtrend since the late-January 2026 peak at 5598, unwinding the 2025 rally with lower highs at 4889 and 4696 and lower lows at 4099, 3942 and now the 3870 yearly low. Price trades well below a falling W1 EMA(50) near 4290, so the macro filter has flipped. October's slide through the 4000 psych level came as 10y yields near 4.95% and ~79% December Fed hike odds weighed; the june low at 3942 now caps overhead, with RSI(14) near 31 approaching but not yet in oversold territory.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,700.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,290.00
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 3870 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence and the trendline through the 4099 and 3870 lows, exposing the 3700 round number at the September 2025 base
- Recovery above the june low at 3942 and the 4000 psych level would mark the first stall in the lower-low sequence
- A W1 close back above the EMA50 near 4290 and the lower-high trendline from 5598 would be needed to challenge the downtrend regime
- RSI(14) below 30 would put the weekly in oversold territory for the first time in this window
- Midterm results overnight, ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday could move yields and Fed hike odds and materially shift this read