20:05 UTC
Downtrend since March peak, lower highs intact · RSI 43 · price 4,099.63
Lower highs 5419/4889/4697, lower lows to 3870.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the March peak at 5419. The April high at 4889 and the August high at 4697 form a falling lower-highs trendline, and the October low at 3870 extended the lower-low sequence below the June low at 3943. This week's rebound reclaimed the June low and psych 4000, though the strong NFP beat trimmed the move off the 4147 high. Price remains below both W1 EMAs, the EMA(50) sits well overhead as the macro filter, and RSI near 42 is mid-range rather than at an extreme. The June low recovery reads as a false break for now, with the October high at 4217 the first cap and the fib 38.2% of the March–October decline near 4462 above it.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.64, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,461.90, 4,696.74
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back below the june low at 3943 negates the false break and re-exposes the oct low at 3870
- Weekly close above the oct high at 4217 would be the first challenge to the lower-highs trendline sequence
- Fib 38.2% near 4462 and the aug high at 4697 define the zone where the downtrend read would be structurally questioned
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read via December hike pricing (~77%)
- Loss of psych 4000 on a weekly close puts the June–October base lows back in focus