Higher lows off the 4027.52 NFP low, capped at 4078.5; late-NY compression 4060.6–4066.
The blowout NFP sent gold through the Asian low to 4027.52 (nfp low), then a recovery built higher lows at the 4053.78 swing low before the NY high at 4078.54 was rejected just under the 4081.20 london high. Late NY is compressing between the 4060.6 ny low and the 4068.4 swing high, holding above the 38.2% of the post-NFP fib with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4060.6 ny low exposes the 4053.78 swing low and the 50% post-NFP fib
Close above the 4068.4 swing high puts the 4078.5 ny high / 4081.2 london high cap back in play
Loss of the 4027.52 nfp low would erase the post-NFP recovery
Friday close is near; Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could gap or reset this read
NFP sweep of Asian low reclaimed; lower high under London high, late-NY compression.
The NFP beat drove a sweep of the Asian low to the 4027.52 NFP low in the first NY bar, which was reclaimed quickly. The rebound stalled at the 4078.54 NY high, a lower high under the 4081.20 London high, and late NY is compressing at 4061–4066 just above the 4061 micro base. Price is pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) near 49, sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% retrace of the NFP rebound.
Support: 4,061.00, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
A close below the 4061 micro base exposes the 4053.78 higher low near the 50% retrace. Losing that reopens the 4027.52 NFP low.
A reclaim of the 4078.54 NY high and 4081.20 London high breaks the lower-high sequence. The 4106.87 Asian high sits above.
The weekly close is about 1.5h away, so thin late-Friday liquidity can distort the 4061–4066 compression.
Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk for this read.
20:05 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, capped below London high · RSI 52 · price 4,062.99
Higher lows off NFP low; lower high vs London high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) swept the Asian low in the first hour of NY and set the NFP low at 4,027.5. Price then recovered on higher lows: the 4,053.8 higher low and the 4,061 swing low. The late-NY push was rejected at the 4,078.5 NY high, a lower high beneath the 4,081 London high. Price now sits just under the 4,065/75 zone with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
A close above the 4,081 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4,106.9 Asian high back in view
Loss of the 4,053.8 higher low breaks the recovery chain and exposes the 4,027.5 NFP low
Friday close is under 2h away in thin late-NY liquidity; Monday Fed speakers and Tuesday's US CPI are the next drivers
19:32 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, stalling below London high · RSI 52 · price 4,064.22
Higher lows off 4027.52 NFP low; rejection at 4078.54 just under the 4081.20 London high.
The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) drove a flush to 4027.52 in the first NY hour. The late-NY post-NFP bounce then built higher lows along rising support and stalled at the 4078.54 NY high, just under the 4081.20 London high. The 19:15 UTC rejection has price back near EMA20 (~4063) with RSI(14) neutral around 52 into the Friday close.
Support: 4,059.63, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
Break of the 4059.63 pre-nfp low exposes the 4053.78 higher low and the 50% fib of the post-NFP bounce (~4053)
Loss of 4053.78 breaks rising support and reopens the 4027.52 nfp low
M15 close above the 4078.54 ny high and 4081.20 london high clears the 4065/75 zone flagged as resistance after NFP
Thin Friday-close liquidity; Monday Fed speakers and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the NFP low, capped below the London high.
The NFP beat flushed gold through the Asian low at 4035.81 to an nfp low of 4027.52. That move reversed during NY hours, with a higher swing low at 4053.78 near the 50% fib and a ny high at 4078.54, just under the London high at 4081.20. Late-NY Friday trade is holding inside the 4065/75 band, with RSI(14) near 62 and not stretched.
Support: 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
A close above the 4081.20 london high clears the session range and exposes the 4106.87 asian high.
Losing the rising trendline and the 4053.78 swing low would break the post-NFP higher-low chain, with the 4027.52 nfp low below.
Thin liquidity into the Friday close. US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Fed speakers on Monday, could materially shift this read.
V-recovery from the NFP double bottom; late NY session pressing the London high.
The hot NFP and wage beat flushed gold to 4027.52, below the Asian low. That break failed: a double bottom near 4030 held, and late-NY trade has reclaimed 4065/75 with higher lows along the rising trendline. Price is now pressing the 4081.20 London high, with RSI(14) near 68 and nearly the full NFP drop retraced on the fib.
Support: 4,068.43, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4081.20 london high opens the 4106.78 asian high
Loss of the 4068.43 prior high and the rising trendline exposes the 4053.78 swing low
Break below the 4027.52 nfp low voids the double bottom read
Friday close into the weekend thins liquidity. Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could reset this read
Late NY session. Gold has retraced about 85% of the hot-NFP drop from the 4081.20 London high to the 4027.52 NFP low, building higher lows along the post-NFP trendline, the latest at 4053.78. Price is now pressing the 4065/75 old support zone near 4075 with RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,075.00, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4081.20 London high completes the NFP drop fib retracement and clears the old support zone
Rejection at 4075 old support, now acting as resistance, would leave the recovery capped below the London high
Loss of the 4053.78 higher low breaks the post-NFP trendline and puts the 4027.52 NFP low back in focus
Thin late-Friday trade into the weekend; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon, with US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC the next major risk
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) swept the Asian low and printed the NFP low at 4027.52 in the first NY bar. Price has since retraced about 70% of the London high-to-NFP low drop, with higher lows at 4044.52 and the 4053.78 swing low; it is now pressing the post-NFP high at 4068.43, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,053.78, 4,044.52, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4068.43 post-NFP high opens the 4072–4081.20 London high band
Break below the 4053.78 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4044.52 higher low
Fed's Daly remarks and thin late-Friday NY trade could shift this read; a return below the 4027.52 NFP low resumes the drop
18:17 UTC
Post-NFP rebound, stalling below NY high · RSI 55 · price 4,061.58
Higher lows off the NFP sweep low; tight 4054–4068 range into late NY.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) swept the 4035.81 Asian low down to the 4027.52 NFP low at the NY open. Demand then lifted price to the 4068.43 NY high, still below the 4081.20 London high, and the pullback held the 4053.78 swing low near the 38.2% post-NFP fib. RSI(14) is neutral around 55 heading into late NY.
Support: 4,053.78, 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4068.43 NY high opens the 4081.20 London high
Loss of the 4053.78 swing low and rising support puts the 4035.81 Asian low back in play, with the 4027.52 NFP low below
Fed's Daly remarks (18:00 UTC) and thin late-Friday liquidity could shift this read
18:05 UTC
Post-NFP rebound, stalling below London high · RSI 52 · price 4,060.43
Higher lows off 4027.52 NFP low; 4054–4068 range late NY.
The NFP beat swept the Asian low to 4027.52 on the first NY bar, and buyers defended the 4030 area twice. The rebound stalled at the 4068.43 post-NFP high, well below the 4081.20 London high. Late in NY, price is compressing above the 4053.78 swing low near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 4,053.78, 4,043.10, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4068.43 NFP high exposes the 4081.20 London high
Failure to hold the 4053.78 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the fib 61.8 at 4043.10, then the 4027.52 NFP low
Fed's Daly speaking now (18:00 UTC); a hawkish endorsement of a December hike could reassert the post-NFP USD bid
NFP sweep of Asian low reclaimed; higher low at 4044, lower highs from London.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) swept the Asian low near 4036 to 4027.52, but the break failed and price recovered toward 4068 during NY hours. The rebound high at 4068.43 sits under the descending London highs line, and price is now drifting after London close near 4057 with RSI(14) neutral at 53, inside the shallow part of the NFP rebound fib.
Support: 4,044.52, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
Daly at 18:00 UTC could extend NY-session volatility
M15 close above 4068.43 breaks the descending London highs line and opens 4081.20, the london high
Failure to hold the 4044.52 higher low, near the 61.8% of the NFP rebound fib, exposes the 4027.52 nfp low
US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this structure
The hot NFP print swept the Asian low at 4035.81 down to a 4027.52 NFP low. NY has since printed higher lows, with price now coiling between the 4056 higher low and the 4068.43 NFP high. Price sits near the 61.8% retracement of the London high-to-NFP drop after London close, just beneath the 4065/75 zone, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,044.52, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4068.43 nfp high opens the 4081.20 london high
Break of the 4056 higher low and the rising trendline exposes 4044.52, the post-nfp hl
Loss of 4044.52 puts the 4027.52 nfp low back in play
Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) remarks on a December hike could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NFP low, capped below the 4068 NY high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed gold through the Asian low to 4027.52 in the first hour of NY. The break was quickly reclaimed, and a run of higher lows retraced about 78.6% of the London high–NFP low fib before stalling at the 4068.43 NY high. After London close, price is slipping under the steep recovery line, with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR(14) around $10.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4068.43 NY high reopens the 4081.20 London high
Failure to hold the 4056.35 higher low exposes the Asian low at 4035.81 and the 4027.52 NFP low
Sustained trade below the recovery line signals the post-NFP rebound is fading
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off NFP low, testing pre-NFP range from below.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked gold to an nfp low of 4027.52 at 13:30 UTC. A higher-low chain at 4029.96 / 4044.52 / 4056.35 has since lifted price back past the 61.8% retracement of the 4081–4027 drop. It is now pressing the 4060–4073 pre-NFP range from below after London close, with the rebound high at 4068.43 capping so far.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,044.52, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,068.43, 4,073.00, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in late NY hours
M15 close above the 4073 range top reopens the 4081.20 london high
Rejection at 4068–4073 keeps the move a retracement of the NFP drop
Failure to hold the 4056.35 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 4044.52, then the nfp low
Higher lows off the NFP low, capped below 4067–4073.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked gold through the Asian low to 4027.52 in the first hour of NY. Demand stepped in there, and price has since built higher lows into a 4067.18 post-NFP high. It is now holding the 61.8% retrace of the London high–NFP low drop near 4060, with the pre-NFP high shelf at 4073 overhead. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and price sits above EMA20 and just above EMA50, late in the NY session after London close.
Support: 4,044.52, 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,067.18, 4,073.26, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4067 post-NFP high and the 4073 pre-NFP high opens the path to the London high at 4081.20
Failure to hold the 4044.52 higher low puts the Asian low at 4035.81 and the NFP low at 4027.52 back in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via December-hike pricing
16:32 UTC
Post-NFP rebound inside a down day · RSI 56 · price 4,062.73
V-recovery from NFP low, higher low at 4044.52, testing pre-NFP zone.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K, hot wages) flushed gold $34 to the 4027.52 nfp low in the first NY bar. That low was rejected, and NY has since retraced most of the drop, building a higher low at 4044.52 and pressing the ny high at 4067.18. This puts price back into the pre-NFP 4065–4072 zone, with RSI(14) mid-50s and price holding above the ema20 near 4055.
Support: 4,055.00, 4,044.52, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,067.18, 4,072.63, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4072.63 pre-nfp high reclaims the London range and opens the 4081.20 london high
Failure at the 4067.18 ny high and a slip below the ema20 near 4055 points to rejection at the pre-NFP zone
Break of the 4044.52 higher low and the post-NFP trendline exposes the 4027.52 nfp low
Fed Bowman 17:15 UTC (19:15 broker) and Daly 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read on December hike tone
Higher-low chain off the NFP low, testing the lower half of the London range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked gold to 4027.5, a false break of the 4035.8 Asian low. A double bottom at 4027.5/4030.0 and a higher low at 4044.5 have since lifted price back to the 4065 session high, the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the 4081 London high to NFP low drop. The 4059–4073 London range overhead is the next test.
Support: 4,055.30, 4,044.50, 4,027.50
Resistance: 4,065.45, 4,073.00, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4065.45 session high exposes the 4073 london range top, then the 4081.2 london high
Loss of 4055.3 pre-nfp low support puts the 4044.5 higher low and rising support line back in play
Break below the 4027.5 nfp low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the post-data downtrend
Fed Bowman 17:15 UTC and Daly 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the Friday close
16:04 UTC
Down since London high, post-NFP bounce stalling · RSI 47 · price 4,054.76
Lower highs from 4081; higher low at 4030 after NFP flush, capped at 4057.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) and hot wages drove gold through the asian low to 4027.52 in the first hour of NY. A higher low at 4029.96 (nfp low) lifted price to the 50% retracement of the 4081–4027 drop, where the ny cap at 4057 has rejected three times. Price sits just above EMA20 and below EMA50, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,044.52, 4,035.81, 4,029.96
Resistance: 4,057.35, 4,072.63, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4057 ny cap opens the 61.8% at 4060.7 and the london highs trendline toward the 4072.6 lower high
Only a break of the 4072.6 lower high and the 4081.2 london high negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4044.5 pullback low puts the 4035.8 asian low and the 4027.5–4030 nfp low double bottom back in play
Fed Bowman at 17:15 UTC and Daly at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4081 London high; NFP sweep below the Asian low reclaimed.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K f/c) sent gold through the 4035.8 Asian low to a 4027.5 NFP low before a reclaim. The rebound stalled at 4056.7, the post-NFP high, near the 50% retracement of the drop from the 4081.2 London high, which extends the lower-high sequence. Price now sits near the 38.2% level during NY hours, with RSI(14) around 42 and ATR elevated after the release.
Support: 4,035.80, 4,027.50
Resistance: 4,056.70, 4,067.20, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4056.7 post-NFP high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the lower-high read; the 4067.2 pre-NFP high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 4035.8 Asian low reopens the 4027.5 NFP low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; NFP low below Asian range.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K, AHE 0.4%) pushed gold through the asian low at 4035.81 to an nfp low of 4027.52. The NY-session bounce stalled at the post-nfp high of 4056.71, near the 50% fib, and the lower-high sequence from the 4081.20 london high is still intact. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,056.71, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4056.71 post-nfp high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 4081.20 london high
Loss of the 4035.81 asian low, then the 4027.52 nfp low, confirms a lower-low with the 4000 psych handle next
Fed's Bowman (17:15 GMT) and Daly (18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read if they endorse a December hike
Lower highs since London; NFP false break of Asian low, retracing into 4060 cap.
The hot NFP (165K vs 65K, firmer wages) took gold through the 4035.81 asian low to a 4027.52 nfp low, but the break failed and price has rebounded to 4056, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop from the 4081 london high. EMA50 and the lower-highs line converge near 4060–4061 overhead, while the 4043 higher low marks the NY bounce floor.
Support: 4,043.20, 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,060.50, 4,073.00, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4061 (ema50 / 61.8% fib / lower-highs line) breaks the London lower-high sequence and exposes the 4073 lower high, then the 4081 london high
Loss of the 4043 higher low puts the 4035.81 asian low and 4027.52 nfp low back in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations landed in the 15:00 bar; Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
ATR near 11.5 points: post-NFP volatility still elevated versus the Asian session
Lower highs from London high; basing at Asian low.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K, AHE 0.4%) spiked gold to the 4027.52 NFP low, sweeping the 4035.81 Asian low and erasing the London rally to the 4081.20 London high. The bounce stalled at the 4053.71 bounce high, the 50% retrace, and price is now holding just above the Asian low in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,053.71, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4027.52 NFP low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Recovery above the 4053.71 bounce high (50% retrace) eases post-NFP pressure; the lower highs line near 4065 sits above
Repeated M15 closes back below the 4035.81 Asian low turn the level into resistance
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Bowman 17:15 and Daly 18:00, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4081 London high; Asian low broken, pressing the NFP spike low.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K, firmer wages) pushed gold through the London range floor near 4060 and the Asian low at 4035.81. The 13:30 GMT spike set the nfp low at 4027.52, which price is now pressing in the first hour of NY. Post-print bounces have printed successively lower highs from the post-nfp hi at 4053.71, near the 50% retrace of the leg down from the London high at 4081.20. RSI(14) is near 28, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,035.81, 4,053.71, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the nfp low at 4027.52 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 round number
A recovery back above the asian low at 4035.81 would flag the break as a potential false break; the post-nfp hi at 4053.71 caps the bounce structure
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Fed's Bowman (17:15) and Daly (18:00), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, Asian range low broken.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K, AHE 0.4% m/m) knocked gold through the 4035.81 Asian low to a 4027.52 NFP low. The post-NFP high at 4053.71 stalled near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 4081.20 London high. Lower highs have capped every bounce since, with price pressing session lows early in the NY session and RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,035.81, 4,053.71, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4035.81 Asian low would flag a false break of the range
Failure to hold the 4027.52 NFP low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Recovery through the 4053.71 post-NFP high and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Bowman at 17:15 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs off London high, midday range broken lower.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K, AHE 0.4%) broke the 4060–4073 midday range lower and swept the Asian low at 4035.81 to a 4027.52 NFP low. The 33-dollar NFP bar closed off its low. Price is now holding just above the 4043.80 post-NFP low at the 38.2% retrace of the London high-to-NFP drop. Lower highs from the 4081.20 London high still define the descending trendline.
Support: 4,043.80, 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,055.27, 4,073.26, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4055.27 pre-NFP low (near the 50% retrace) reopens the range-top area at 4073.26
Failure to hold the 4035.81 Asian low exposes a retest of the 4027.52 NFP low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT could extend or unwind the NFP move
A break above the descending trendline and the 4081.20 London high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT is late-session event risk
Lower highs from London high; NFP sweep of Asian low reclaimed.
The London high at 4081.20 capped the session and lower highs followed into NY as the USD held weekly highs. The NFP bar swept the asian low at 4035.81 down to the nfp low at 4027.52 before closing back near 4048; the print itself is not yet in the feed. Price now sits below the pre-nfp low at 4055.27, near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop, with RSI(14) around 33 and ATR spiking on the data.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,055.27, 4,072.63, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4055.27 pre-nfp low reopens the 4072.63 swing high and the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the asian low at 4035.81, then a break of the 4027.52 nfp low, extends the lower-low sequence
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, plus the NFP details hitting the feed, could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 4,044.58
Lower highs off 4081.20, release-bar sweep below Asian low.
The 13:30 GMT bar, timed with the US jobs report, spiked to a 4027.52 spike low. It swept the 4035.81 Asian low before recovering to 4044.58, with RSI(14) near 31. That extends the lower-high sequence off the 4081.20 London high, with the 4072.63 lower high marking the latest cap and price below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,072.63, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
Close below the 4027.52 spike low confirms continuation of the post-jobs leg
Failure to hold back above the 4035.81 asian low voids the sweep read
Break of the descending trendline and the 4072.63 lower high invalidates the lower-high sequence; 4081.20 london high above
Release-bar volatility plus Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London high · RSI 37 · price 4,057.96
LH/LL sequence off 4081.20, inside 4035.81–4106.87 Asian range.
London's rally from 4041.92 stalled at the 4081.20 london high. A lower-high sequence capped at 4072.63 has since walked price back to a retest of the 61.8% fib near 4057 in the London-NY transition, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37. Pre-NFP USD firmness is weighing, but the day is still inside the 4035.81–4106.87 Asian range.
Support: 4,056.92, 4,050.00, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,072.63, 4,081.20, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
NFP at 13:30 GMT is minutes away. A print well above the 65K forecast puts the 4050 round number and the 4035.81 asian low in focus.
A close below the 61.8% fib at 4056.92 extends the lower-low chain off the London high.
A close above the 4072.63 lower high breaks the descending sequence and exposes the 4081.20 london high.
A soft NFP that reclaims the 4100 psych level brings the 4106.87 Asian range top back into play.
13:03 UTC
London rebound stalling, lower highs into NFP · RSI 45 · price 4,065.74
Compressing 4059–4073 below falling highs after a 4035.81→4081.20 leg.
London lifted gold off the 4,035.81 Asian low to a 4,081.20 London high. Price has since retraced into the 38.2–50% fib zone and is compressing between the 4,059.63 swing low and the 4,073.26 lower high under a falling trendline. A firmer USD and position-squaring ahead of NFP are capping rebounds, with RSI(14) near 45 and price sitting just under EMA20.
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~27 min, f/c 65K) is the dominant risk; expect bar ranges well beyond the 650-pip ATR
M15 close below the 4,059.63 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 at 4,053.15, then the Asian low at 4,035.81
M15 close above the 4,073.26 lower high and the falling trendline reopens the 4,081.20 London high
London leg 4035.81→4081.20, now ranging 4059–4073 near its 38.2–50% fib.
London lifted gold off the asian low at 4035.81 to a london high of 4081.20. Price has since compressed into a 4059.63–4073.26 range around the 38.2–50% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) flat near 51 as a firmer USD and pre-NFP squaring cap the rebound.
Support: 4,059.63, 4,053.15, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,073.26, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) lands within the hour and could materially shift this read. ATR(14) near $6.80 is likely to expand sharply on the release.
M15 close below the 4059.63 range low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4053, then the asian low at 4035.81.
M15 close above the 4073.26 range top reopens the london high at 4081.20. A failure there keeps the range intact.
12:32 UTC
Intraday down from Asian high, London bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 4,069.35
Lower highs compressing 4060–4073 into NFP, below 61.8% retrace.
Asia sold off from the 4106.87 asian high to the 4035.81 asian low. London then retraced to the 4081.20 london high, right at the 61.8% fib. Since then lower highs have pinned price in a 4060–4073 band around the 50% level, with the firmer USD into NFP holding gold in the digest's 4065/75 support zone and RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 4,059.63, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,073.26, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~1h, f/c 65K) likely to break the 4060–4073 compression; expect range expansion well beyond the ~$6.4 ATR
Close below the 4059.63 swing low exposes the 4035.81 asian low and invalidates the London retrace
Close above the 4073.26 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 4081.20 london high (61.8% fib) back in play
Acceptance above 4081.20 shifts focus to the 4106.87 asian high
Lower highs off the London high, compressing 4060–4073 ahead of NFP.
London lifted gold off the 4035.81 Asian low to a 4081.20 London high. That leg has since retraced into the 38.2–50% fib zone, with a lower high at 4073.26 and a pullback low at 4059.63. Price sits on EMA20 near 4064, just under EMA50 near 4068, with RSI(14) neutral at 54. Late-London trade is compressing inside the digest's 4065/75 support zone as USD firms into NFP.
Support: 4,059.63, 4,053.15, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,073.26, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~75 min away), then Michigan sentiment at 15:00 GMT, could break the 4060–4073 compression and materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 4059.63 pullback low extends the retracement toward the 61.8% fib near 4053 and the 4035.81 asian low
An M15 close above the 4073.26 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 4081.20 london high, then the 4106.87 asian high
London rally capped at 4081, lower high at 4073, break below the 4063 swing low.
London lifted gold off the 4035.81 Asian low to a 4081.20 session high. Rejection followed: a lower high at 4073 and a slip through the 4063 swing low, now a broken low, have price back below the 4065/75 area the firmer USD has been pressing. Late London, RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs, with the London rally fib 50% near 4058 just below.
Support: 4,050.22, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,063.06, 4,073.26, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; release-bar ranges typically run well beyond the ~620-pip ATR
Failure to hold the london base at 4050 exposes the asian low at 4035.81
M15 close back above the 4073 lower high, then the 4081 session high, breaks the lower-highs line and voids the pullback read
Broken low at 4063 acting as resistance keeps the London rally fib 50–61.8% zone (4058–4053) in play
11:47 UTC
Intraday rebound off the asian low, pausing below the london high · RSI 58 · price 4,070.77
Higher low at 4063 holding under the 4081 london high.
London broke out of the 4036–4053 late-Asian consolidation, with 4052.85 the asian top and 4035.81 the asian low. It ran to a 4081 london high, then pulled back to a 4063 higher low at the 38.2% fib. Price is sitting just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 58, drifting into NFP after the USD-led slide from the 4100 round number area during Asia.
Support: 4,063.06, 4,052.85, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; release ranges typically exceed the ~590-pip ATR
M15 close below the 4063 higher low exposes the 4053 asian top
Break of the 4081 london high opens the 4100 round number
Loss of the 4036 asian low confirms a lower-low
11:32 UTC
Rebound off Asian low, pausing below London high · RSI 59 · price 4,070.29
Higher low at 4063 inside the Asian range, pre-NFP compression.
The Asia session slid from the 4106.87 Asian high to a 4035.81 Asian low as the USD stayed bid. London bounced to a 4081.20 London high, then pulled back to a 4063.06 higher low, about the 38.2% retracement of that leg. Price is now holding near 4070 with ranges tightening into NFP, still inside the Asian range.
Support: 4,063.06, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; ATR near 700 pips understates release-bar range
M15 close above the 4081.20 london high extends the HH/HL chain toward the 4106.87 asian high
Break of the 4063.06 higher low and the rising london trendline returns focus to the 4035.81 asian low
Lower-high sequence off 4081.20 London high, pullback low at 4063 holding.
London rallied off the 4035.81 Asian low through the pre-London range top to a 4081.20 London high, then faded on a run of lower highs into the 38.2% fib of that move. Late London trade is now holding the 4063 pullback low, the same area where the Asia selloff broke down. Price sits between EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 55, about two hours ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,063.06, 4,058.50, 4,052.85
Resistance: 4,070.60, 4,081.20, 4,106.78
What it said to watch
Break below the 4063 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 4058.5, then the 4052.85 range top from the pre-London base
M15 close above the lower high trendline near 4070.6 invalidates the London fade read, with the 4081.20 London high next
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; the 4106.78 Asian high caps the session range above
11:04 UTC
London rebound, pulling back on lower highs · RSI 53 · price 4,064.59
London leg off the Asian low retracing toward 38.2%; lower-high sequence since 4081.
Asian session slid from the 4106.90 asian high to a 4035.80 asian low. London broke the 4036–4052 overnight base and ran to a 4081.20 london high, then pulled back on lower highs to the 4063.70 pullback low (~38.2% of the leg), with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) at a neutral 53 as a firmer USD caps gold into NFP.
Support: 4,063.70, 4,058.50, 4,035.80
Resistance: 4,072.80, 4,081.20, 4,106.90
What it said to watch
A close above the 4072.80 lower high breaks the pullback sequence and puts the 4081.20 london high back in play
A close below the 4058.50 fib 50% erodes the London leg and opens a path back toward the 4035.80 asian low
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker, f/c 65K) is expected to swamp this structure; ATR near 730 pips is likely to expand sharply
The 4106.90 asian high caps the session if the London high gives way
10:48 UTC
London rebound pausing, minor pullback · RSI 59 · price 4,067.08
Recovery from the Asian low, lower highs since the 4081 London high.
London lifted gold about $45 off the 4035.81 Asian low to a 4081.20 London high, recovering part of the overnight slide from the 4106.87 Asian high. Price is now drifting lower in a shallow flag toward the 38.2% fib. The pullback low at 4064.67 is holding above EMA20 and sits on the $4,065/75 support band, with RSI(14) cooled to ~59 as USD firmness caps the bounce ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,064.67, 4,057.40, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4064.67 pullback low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 4057 breakout level
Loss of the 4057 breakout level puts the 4035.81 Asian low back in play
Reclaim of the 4081.20 London high reopens the 4106.87 Asian high
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a strong print threatens the $4,065/75 support band
10:32 UTC
London rebound off Asia low, pausing in a shallow pullback · RSI 61 · price 4,069.37
Higher low at 4035.81, session high 4081.20, lower highs since.
The Asia session slid from its 4106.87 high to the 4035.81 Asia low. London reversed it, running to a 4081.20 session high before a shallow pullback. That dip is holding the 38.2% fib and pullback low near 4064, inside the 4065/75 support zone flagged into NFP. Lower highs since 09:15 UTC form a small flag, with price sitting just above both EMAs and mid-way through the Asian range.
Support: 4,064.67, 4,057.40, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read, and the ~$7.9 ATR is likely to expand on the release
M15 close above the pullback line and the 4081.20 session high reopens the Asia high at 4106.87
Loss of the 4064.67 pullback low and the 4057.40 break level would put the 4035.81 Asia low back in view
10:18 UTC
London rebound off Asian low, now pulling back · RSI 56 · price 4,068.59
HH/HL leg 4035.81→4081.20 in London, lower highs since 09:15 UTC.
The London session lifted gold about $45 off the 4035.81 asian low to a 4081.20 session high, then stalled. A chain of lower highs since has pulled price toward the fib 38.2 / ema20 cluster near 4063–4064, with RSI(14) cooling to ~56 and price sitting on EMA50. The fade matches the USD rebound capping gold, and price remains inside Asia's 4035.81–4106.87 range ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,063.86, 4,057.43, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,077.09, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 38.2 / ema20 cluster at 4063–4064 turns the London leg into a deeper retrace toward the 4057.43 prior high
Recovery through the 4077.09 lower high and the 4081.20 session high resumes the London HH/HL chain and opens the path to the 4106.87 asian high
Failure at the 4057.43 prior high would expose the 4035.81 asian low
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; Michigan inflation expectations follow at 15:00 UTC
London higher highs and higher lows after Asian base break; first pullback from 4081.2 in progress.
London reversed the Asian slide, breaking the 4036–4052 base through the 4057.4 range top at 07:45 UTC and running to a 4081.2 London high. Price is easing back to 4072, the top of the 4065/75 support area cited in the digest, with RSI(14) cooling from the high-70s and price still inside the Asian range (4035.8 session low to 4106.9 Asian high) ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,071.69, 4,057.41, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4071.7 pullback low brings the 38.2% fib near 4063.8 and the 4057.4 range top into play
M15 close above the 4081.2 London high opens the path toward the 4106.9 Asian high
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a loss of the 4057.4 range top would leave the 4035.8 session low exposed
09:47 UTC
Intraday rebound off Asian low, momentum cooling · RSI 69 · price 4,075.10
London break above 4036–4057 base, higher highs to 4081.2, first shallow pullback holding.
Asia sold off from the 4106.9 Asian high to a 4035.8 Asian low as the haven USD bid extended. London broke the 4036–4057 base and ran to a 4081.2 session high, with the first pullback holding 4071.7 and RSI(14) easing from the high 70s to about 69.
Support: 4,071.70, 4,057.40, 4,035.80
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,097.50, 4,106.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4071.7 pullback low opens a retest of the 4057.4 range top, near the 50% fib of the London leg
Close above the 4081.2 session high puts the 4097.5 prior swing and 4106.9 Asian high in view
Failure back below the 4035.8 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence and negates the range-break read
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; ATR near 830 pips points to expanded ranges around the release
Asia sold off from the 4106.87 Asian high to a 4035.81 Asian low as the USD rebound extended, then based in a triple bottom at 4036–4037. The London rally cleared the 4052.9 neckline and printed a 4081.20 session high. Bars are now narrowing under that high, with RSI(14) near 65 and below extreme.
Support: 4,063.80, 4,052.90, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print would put the 4035.81 asian low back in focus
An M15 close above the 4081.20 session high extends the HH/HL chain and opens the path to the 4106.87 asian high
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 4063.8 exposes a retest of the 4052.9 neckline
London range break off 4036 base, stalling at 61.8% fib.
London open broke the 4036–4052 overnight base, lifting gold about $45 off the 4035.81 session low to a 4080.67 london high, right at the 61.8% fib of the asia high-to-low drop. Price sits mid-Asian range with RSI(14) near 64, as the USD bounce that drove the overnight slide pauses ahead of Williams and NFP.
Support: 4,057.40, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,080.67, 4,097.50, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at the 4080 london high / 61.8% fib keeps this a retracement of the Asian decline
Loss of the 4057 base break puts the 4035.81 session low back in play
M15 close above the 4097.5 breakdown shelf opens the 4106.87 asia high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Overnight base broken higher; testing 61.8% of Asian drop.
After the USD-led slide through Asia, gold based between 4,036 and the 4,053 base top. It broke higher at London open and has rallied ~42 to 4,078, now at the 61.8% fib of the 4,107–4,036 Asian drop with RSI(14) near 78. The prior NY low at 4,081.5 caps just overhead, and the session low at 4,036 marks the floor of the move.
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4,081.5 NY low opens the path toward the 4,106.9 Asian high
A move back below the 4,053 base top would negate the London range break
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the Asian lower-high sequence intact
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp recovery leg off lows · RSI 72 · price 4,071.01
Base at 4036–4042 broken higher, testing 50% of Asia drop.
Gold based at the 4035.81 session low, held the 4041.92 london low and broke the 4041–4052 early-London range from the 4057 breakout base. The move stalled at a 4072.71 london high, right at the 50% retracement of the Asia-session slide from 4106.87, unwinding part of the early-Europe USD-driven drop. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 4,057.40, 4,041.92, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,072.71, 4,079.73, 4,088.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 4079.73 opens the ny shelf near 4088
Rejection at the 4072.71 london high and loss of the 4057 breakout base return focus to the 4041.92 london low and 4035.81 session low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Late-Asia base 4036–4053 broken higher; first higher high after a lower-high sequence.
The overnight slide from 4106.87 bottomed at the 4035.81 session low in late Asia. The 4036–4053 base broke higher into the London open, printing a 4070.33 session high near the 50% retracement of the overnight drop. Price is now holding just above the 38.2% level and pressing EMA50 from just below, RSI(14) near 58, still inside the Asian range as USD firms into NFP.
Support: 4,052.85, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,070.33, 4,077.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4077.06 swing high clears the overnight breakdown zone and the 50% fib
Rejection at the 4070.33 session high and a close back below the 4052.85 range top returns price to the late-Asia base and 4035.81 session low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and the US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs overnight; late-Asia base 4035.8–4052.9 broken higher.
Gold slid through the Asia session as the USD rebound extended, basing at the 4035.8 session low. London open lifted price out of the base through its 4052.9 range top and into the 4063–4066 breakdown zone, where the 38.2% fib of the overnight drop and EMA50 converge. RSI(14) sits near 57.
Support: 4,052.90, 4,035.80
Resistance: 4,066.10, 4,072.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4052.9 range top would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 4066.1 breakdown level opens the 4072.9 swing high
Loss of the rising base support from 4035.8 exposes the session low again
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4106.87 Asia high; 4036–4053 base broken higher into London open.
Gold slid from the 4106.87 Asia swing to a 4035.81 session low as the USD rebound extended, then based in a 4036–4053 range through early Europe. Into the London open, price broke the range top and printed a 4057.41 London high. RSI(14) is near 58, and price sits above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 4,052.50, 4,035.81
Resistance: 4,057.41, 4,063.00, 4,072.87
What it said to watch
Holding the 4052.5 range top as a retest keeps the range break intact; a slip back inside reads as a false break
The fib 38.2 near 4063 and the 4072.87 swing high are the next caps on the decline from 4106.87
Loss of the 4035.81 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight box · RSI 44 · price 4,044.81
Lower highs from the Asian high; 4036–4053 consolidation since early Asia lows.
Asian session sold off from the 4106.87 asian high to a 4035.81 session low as the USD firmed into NFP. Since then price has held a roughly $17 box below the 4052.85 range top, and the London open has not broken it. Price is capped just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and the 38.2% fib near 4063 sitting under the 4072.87 lower high.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,072.87, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 range top would open the 38.2% fib / 4072.87 lower high zone
Failure to hold the 4035.81 session low would extend the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Only a reclaim of the 4106.87 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 35 · price 4,043.48
Lower highs from 4106.87, compressed 4036–4053 box since 04:00 UTC.
Asian session extended Thursday's NY slide below $4,050 as the USD firmed into NFP, printing a 4035.81 session low. Since 04:00 UTC price has been boxed in 4036–4053 ahead of London, with the range top capping at the 23.6% retracement of the 4106.87–4035.81 drop. RSI(14) near 35 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,062.95, 4,071.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 range top puts the 38.2% fib near 4063 and the 50% fib at 4071 in play
Loss of the 4035.81 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 38 · price 4,046.09
Asian lower-low leg, now a tight 4036–4053 range under EMA20.
The Asian session sold off from 4106.87 to the 4035.81 asian low as the USD firmed into NFP, taking out the prior ny low at 4076.32. Since then price has compressed beneath a range top near 4052.85, where EMA20 and the 23.6% retrace converge. RSI(14) sits near 38 and early London has yet to break either side.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,076.32
What it said to watch
Close above the 4052.85 range top and EMA20 opens a retrace toward the 38.2% at ~4063 and the 4076.32 ny low
Failure to hold the 4035.81 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 4,049.77
Asia selloff from 4106.87 to 4035.81, now a tight base at 4036–4053 with rising lows.
Gold failed above the $4,100 psych level early in the Asia session as yields and the USD rebounded. The Asia selloff ran to a 4035.81 session low. Since then price has built a 4036–4053 base on rising lows and is pressing the range top and EMA20 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 40.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,072.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4052.85 range top breaks the base and opens the 4072.87 swing high
Loss of the rising lows and a break of the 4035.81 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift the pre-NFP tone
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially reset this read
Lower highs from Asia high, tight base 4035.81–4052.85.
The Asia session faded from 4106.87 after gold failed to hold $4,100 as yields and the USD rebounded. The 01:15 UTC break and the 04:00 UTC loss of the 4056 broken base extended the slide to a 4035.81 session low. Late Asia is now compressing in a $17 base under the 4052.85 range top, which sits on the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 44 and price capped just under EMA20.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,056.35, 4,072.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 range top and the 4056.35 broken base opens the 38.2% fib near 4063, then the asia swing at 4072.87
Failure at the 4035.81 session low confirms another lower-low and puts the 4000 round number in view
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; ATR near $9.5 understates the expected release range
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain, now a tight base 4035.8–4052.9.
Gold was sold through Asia from 4106.87 to a 4035.8 session low as yields and the USD rebounded. For the last three hours it has been basing inside a 4035.8–4052.9 range ahead of the London open, with the range top sitting at the 23.6% retrace of the Asian decline. RSI(14) is near 38, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,035.80, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.90, 4,072.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.9 range top opens the 38.2–50% fib zone and the 4072.9 lower high
Failure to hold the 4035.8 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Asian lower-high/lower-low chain off 4106.87, now compressing in a 4036–4053 base.
Asia sold off from the 4106.87 asian high as yields and the USD rebounded, printing lower highs down to a 4035.81 session low. The last two hours have compressed between that low and the 4052.85 swing high, which sits on the 23.6% fib, ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 36 is off the lows, and price holds below both EMAs.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,072.87, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 swing high (23.6% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 4072.87 lower high
Failure to hold the 4035.81 session low resumes the Asian slide toward 4000 psych
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
06:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 4,039.46
Lower highs from the 4106.87 Asian high; tight base at 4036–4053.
Gold was rejected at the 4106.87 Asian high and slid below Thursday's 4076 NY low as yields and the USD rebounded. Each bounce has stalled at a lower high, the latest at the 4052.85 swing high. Price is now compressing just above the 4035.81 session low ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,072.87, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
A break below the 4035.81 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4000 psych level next
An M15 close above the 4052.85 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 4072.87 lower high and the 38.2–50% fib at 4063–4071 sit above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 4,044.92
Lower highs from the Asia high, now a tight 4036–4053 box.
Gold failed above $4,100 in the Asia session as yields and the USD rebounded. Price slid from the 4106.87 Asia high in a chain of lower highs and broke the 4056 asia base. It is now compressing in a 4036–4053 box against the descending line, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) around $9.75.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,072.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 swing high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain, putting the 4056 asia base in play as resistance
Recovery through the 4072.20 lower high would negate the Asia sell-off structure
Failure at the 4035.81 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of the 4036–4053 box
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially reset this read
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain off 4106.87, price pinned near the session low.
Asia rejected 4106.87 and broke below Thursday's late range near 4071–4081 and the 4056.35 broken low. Lower highs then stepped price down to a 4035.81 session low as yields and the USD firmed. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs and the descending trendline into the late-Asia hour.
Support: 4,035.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,056.35, 4,072.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4035.81 session low opens the path toward the 4000 round number
Reclaim of the 4056.35 broken low and the 4072.87 swing high (near the 50% fib of the Asia drop) would neutralise the downtrend read
Price capped under the descending trendline from 4106.87 keeps the lower-high structure intact
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4106.87, prior-day low broken, tight base above 4037.
Asia was rejected at the 4106.87 high as yields and the USD firmed, then broke below Thursday's 4076.32 prior low on a 01:15 UTC breakdown through 4063.58 and extended to a 4037.49 session low. Price is now compressing in a 4037–4053 band under the 4052.85 bounce high into the London open, with RSI(14) near 37 and an M15 ATR(14) of about 1000 pips.
Support: 4,037.49, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,052.85, 4,063.58, 4,076.32
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4052.85 bounce high opens the 4063.58 breakdown level, the 38.2% fib
Recapture of the 4076.32 prior low near the 61.8% fib would undo the range break
Failure to hold the 4037.49 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and the US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, basing in a tight band above the session low.
Asia session failed at 4106.87 below the 4,100 area and sold off in a lower-high sequence as yields and the USD firmed into NFP. That sequence broke the 4056 broken low and set a session low at 4037.49. The last five bars are compressing between 4037 and the 4048 minor high, with RSI(14) near 35 and no new low printed.
Support: 4,037.49, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.00, 4,056.35, 4,072.87
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4037.49 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 round number
Close above the 4048 minor high, then reclaiming the 4056 broken low, would mark the first higher high since the Asia selloff
4072.87 swing high sits at the 50% fib of the Asia drop; it is the level that would neutralise the downtrend read
London open around 07:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could break the current tight band
US payrolls at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows from the 4106.87 Asian high; tight base at 4037–4050.
Gold failed below $4,100 in Asia and broke the Asian range lower from 4106.87, cutting through the 4057 Thu low to a 4037.49 session low as yields and the USD firmed. The last six bars have compressed into a 4037–4050 base under the range top, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 1080 pips.
Support: 4,037.49, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,049.72, 4,057.00, 4,072.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4049.72 range top and the 4057 Thu low would stall the lower-high sequence
4072.5 lower highs cluster sits at the 50% fib of the Asia drop
Break of the 4037.49 session low leaves the 4000 round number as the next reference
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) can materially reset this read
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 26 · price 4,041.54
Lower-high/lower-low chain through Asia session, Thursday NY low broken.
Gold sold off through the Asia session from the 4106.87 high. It broke Thursday's NY low near 4076 and the 4056 broken low, printing a clean lower-high chain down to the 4037.49 session low, despite the digest's haven-bid read and as USD steadies ahead of NFP. Price is now compressing in a tight 4037–4046 box into London open, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 4,037.49, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,049.72, 4,056.35, 4,072.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4049.72 lower high breaks the micro lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4056 broken low shifts the read to a false break
50% fib of the Asia sell-off at 4072 caps any rebound
Failure to hold the 4037.49 session low exposes the 4000 psych handle
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 25 · price 4,040.27
LH/LL chain from 4106.87, Thursday range broken lower.
Asia faded the 4106.87 high and has printed a clean lower-high/lower-low chain since 01:15 UTC. That move cut through Thursday's 4076.32 ny low to an asia low of 4037.49, with RSI(14) near 25 and no bullish divergence yet. The selling runs against the digest's defensive-gold, softer-yield backdrop, and supply is capping each bounce under the descending trendline.
Support: 4,037.49, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,054.60, 4,076.32
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4054.60 lower high breaks the LH chain and the descending trendline
Rebound into 4064–4072 (38.2–50% of the asia leg fib) toward the 4076.32 ny low is the first test of the breakdown
Failure to hold the 4037.49 asia low exposes the 4000 round number
London open in ~45 min, Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 25 · price 4,042.58
Lower-high/lower-low chain through Asia, prior lows shelf broken.
The Asia drop from the 4106.9 Asia high has printed a steady chain of lower highs. It broke Thursday's NY low near 4076 and the 4056.6 prior lows shelf, and the session low sits at 4041.0. The haven bid flagged in the digest is not holding as USD steadies. RSI(14) is near 25 with ATR around $13 per bar, and price is pressing session lows mid-Asia.
Support: 4,041.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,056.60, 4,072.90, 4,106.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4056.6 prior lows would mark the break as a false break
Close above the lower highs trendline and 4072.9 swing high (near 50% of the Asia drop fib) breaks the LH chain
Failure to hold 4041.0 session low leaves the 4000 round number as the next reference
London open liquidity could extend or reverse the Asian range move
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift USD and this read; NFP at 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, extending lower in Asia · RSI 26 · price 4,043.38
Lower highs from the Asian high, 4056 shelf broken.
In the Asia session, gold fell about $66 from the 4106.9 Asian high. Price broke below Thursday's 4076 NY low and the 4056.5 broken shelf, and now sits on the 4041 session low with RSI(14) near 26. Rallies have stalled at successively lower highs, most recently 4072.9, which runs against the digest's softer-USD Asia read ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,041.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,056.50, 4,072.90, 4,106.90
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4056.5 broken shelf would mark a false break of the Asian lows
Failure to hold the 4041 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
A move above the 4072.9 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the asian high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 26 · price 4,047.89
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4106.9 Asia high; Thursday's lows broken.
Asia session sold off from the 4106.9 high through Thursday's 4071–4076 lows and the 4056.4 low, printing a fresh session low at 4046.3. Each bounce has capped at a lower high (4072.9, then 4066.1), and RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, stretched but not extreme, ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,046.30, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,056.40, 4,066.10, 4,072.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4066.1 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 4072.9 swing high sits near the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop
4056.4 broken low is the first area to watch for rejection or acceptance on any bounce
Failure to hold the 4046.3 session low extends the downtrend toward the 4000 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since NY; Asia broke below the 4056-4057 shelf.
Gold was capped at the 4106.87 Asian high and then dropped in the Asia session. It broke the 4056-4057 shelf to a session low at 4048.37, despite the softer-USD backdrop in the digest. The 4072.9 lower high sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian drop, RSI(14) is around 34 and not yet oversold, and price trades below both EMAs.
Support: 4,048.37
Resistance: 4,056.50, 4,072.90, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4056.5 broken shelf would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4048.37 session low extends the lower-low chain, with 4000 the next psych level
A close above the 4072.9 lower high and the lower-high line near 4099 breaks the sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia faded from its 4106.87 high, and the 01:45 UTC flush broke Thursday's NY low at 4076. That extends the lower-high chain from the 4146.92 Thursday peak, giving back part of the haven-led recovery ahead of NFP. Price is now boxed between the 4056 session low, tested four times, and the 4073 bounce high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,072.87, 4,081.61, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4056 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 round number
Close above the 4073 bounce high opens the fib 50% at 4081.6, with the lower-high trendline near 4100 above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Asia session broke below NY lows. Price is pinned near the Asian low after a shallow bounce..
The Asia session broke below the 4071–4076 NY lows and printed a 4056.35 Asian low, in line with the $4,057 area flagged in the market digest. Lower highs from 4128 keep the intraday downtrend intact. The bounce stalled at the 4072.87 bounce high, under the 38.2% fib of the 4106.87–4056.35 drop, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) about 1,400 pips.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,072.87, 4,081.50, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
A close below the 4056.35 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 round number
Recovery above the 4072.87 bounce high and the fib 50% at 4081.5 (also Thursday's late-NY low) would ease the downtrend read
The lower highs trendline from 4128 runs near 4100, just under the 4106.87 asian high; a break there invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 4146.92; Asian range broken lower.
The 01:30 UTC Asia session selloff broke below Thursday's 4076.32 NY prior low and set a session low at 4056.35. Three bars have since held 4056–4057, and price is now retesting 4076, which coincides with the 38.2% of the drop from the 4106.87 Asian high. The lower-high line from 4128 remains intact, and RSI(14) at 43 has recovered from the selloff without turning higher in structure.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,076.32, 4,092.50, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4076 prior low and the 38.2% retracement would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the 4056 session low exposes the 4050 round number
Reclaim of the 4092.5 breakdown bar and the lower-high line toward the 4106.87 Asian high would break the lower-high sequence
London open and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main volatility event of the session
Lower highs from 4107, Asian range broken lower, base at 4056-4057.
Early Asia broke down from the 4085-4107 opening range at 01:15 UTC, cutting through the 4076 thursday low and tagging a 4056 session low. Three bars have since held 4056-4057, with the bounce high capped at 4073 under a line of lower highs. RSI(14) ~38 is not stretched.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,072.87, 4,076.32
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4056 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 round number
Recovery above the 4076 thursday low (38.2% fib of the 4107-4056 drop) negates the breakdown read
A reclaim of the 4092 breakdown point returns price to the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY session · RSI 34 · price 4,060.52
Asian range broken lower, fresh lower-low at 4056.
Early Asia session broke below the 4071 range low with a $32 bar at 01:15 UTC, printing a 4056 swing low under yesterday's 4076 NY low. That runs against the digest's softer-USD Asia read. The descending trendline from the 4128 NY rebound has capped every bounce, with the 4106.87 asian high the latest lower high, and RSI(14) at 34 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,071.13, 4,081.60, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 4071 range low turns the Asian break into a false break
Failure to hold 4056 swing low exposes the 4050 psych level
Bounce rejected below fib 50% at 4081.6 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Close above the descending trendline and the 4106.87 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Williams 09:30 UTC and US NFP 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4146.92; early-Asia range broken lower, session low at 4056.35.
Early Asia session Friday produced a range break below the 4071 spike low and Thursday's 4076.32 NY low. Price printed a 4056.35 session low at the $4,057 support area, with RSI(14) at 37, soft but not stretched. Lower highs from 4146.92 down to the 4106.87 Asian high keep the intraday downtrend intact ahead of NFP, despite the softer-USD backdrop.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,076.32, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4056 session low exposes the 4050 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery and M15 close back above the 4076 NY low (38.2% fib zone) would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline toward the 4106.87 Asian high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high and lower-low chain from 4146.92; Asian range broken to the downside.
Early in the Asia session, gold dropped through the 4071.13 Asian range low (now a broken low) and the 4076.32 NY low, printing a 4056.35 session low near the $4,057 swing as the USD-led fade extends ahead of NFP. Highs keep stepping lower from 4146.92 under a lower-high trendline, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 31, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,056.35, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,071.13, 4,076.32, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4071.13 broken low would mark the break as a false break
A close below the 4056.35 session low exposes the 4050 round number
The 38.2% retrace of the Asian drop at ~4076 sits on the ny low, a cap to monitor on any bounce
A break of the lower-high trendline and the 4106.87 asian high voids the lower-high chain
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 4128; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed it, now ranging 4085-4107.
Early in the Asia session, price dipped below Thursday's 4076.32 NY low to 4071.13 and was quickly reclaimed on a softer USD. The rebound stalled at the 4106.87 session high, the 61.8% retrace of the 4128–4071 drop, which keeps the descending trendline and the lower-high chain intact. Price is chopping near 4095 under both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral around 46 and a higher low at 4085.86.
Support: 4,085.86, 4,076.32, 4,071.13
Resistance: 4,106.87, 4,117.95, 4,128.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4106.87 session high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the 4117.95 swing high and the 4128.06 NY high
Failure to hold the 4085.86 higher low reopens the 4076.32 NY low and the 4071.13 session low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could reset the intraday range
Lower-high sequence from 4146.92; early Asia range 4071–4107 in development.
Early Asia swept Thursday's 4076 NY low to 4071 and was rejected. The bounce stalled at the 4106.87 Asian high, near the 61.8% retrace of the 4128–4071 drop, which extends the lower-high sequence from the 4147 Thursday high and the 4128 lower high. Price sits mid-range below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 43, after Thursday's USD and yield bounce knocked gold off its highs.
Support: 4,083.51, 4,076.32, 4,071.13
Resistance: 4,106.87, 4,128.06, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
Close above the 4106.87 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4128 lower high back in view
Loss of the 4083.5 swing low exposes the 4076 NY low and the 4071 Asian low; a break of 4071 confirms a lower low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
ATR(14) near 1150 pips; ranges likely expand into the NFP release
Lower highs since 4146.92; Asian range 4071–4107 capped at fib 61.8%.
Gold has carved lower highs since Thursday's 4146.92 Asia peak. The NY yield bounce drove a drop to the 4076 NY low, and the 4128 NY rebound high faded. Friday's Asia session swept below that low to 4071 and recovered, but three rejections at the 4107 Asian high, near the 61.8% of the 4128-4071 fib, leave price pinned on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,083.50, 4,076.30, 4,071.10
Resistance: 4,106.90, 4,118.00, 4,128.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4107 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the 61.8% fib cap, exposing the 4118 pivot high and the 4128 NY rebound
Loss of the 4084 pullback low reopens the 4076 NY low and 4071 Asian low; a close below 4071 confirms a fresh lower low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Early Asia session swept below the 4076 NY low to a 4071.13 sweep low, then recovered back above the 4100 psych level. A softer USD and lower oil helped the move. Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace of the 4146.92–4071.13 drop, with the session high at 4106.78 capping it and the lower high chain (4128 ny high, 4118) plus the descending trendline near 4114 still intact.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,083.51, 4,071.13
Resistance: 4,106.78, 4,117.95, 4,128.06
What it said to watch
Close above the 4117.95 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4128 ny high
Failure to hold the 4100 psych and 4083.51 swing low reopens the 4071 sweep low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; ATR near 1150 pips already elevated
00:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from 4146, bouncing off sweep · RSI 51 · price 4,102.82
Lower highs since 4128; Asia open swept 4076 NY low and reversed.
Early Asia session swept the 4076 NY low to a 4071 swing low and reversed. Price is now pressing the 4105 session high, the lower-high trendline from the 4128 NY high and the 50–61.8% retrace of that drop, with a softer USD and lower oil supporting the bounce.
Support: 4,083.50, 4,076.32, 4,071.13
Resistance: 4,105.41, 4,117.95, 4,128.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4105 session high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 4118 lower high
Rejection at 4105 and a loss of the 4083.5 higher low reopens the 4076 ny low and the 4071 swing low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday's Asia peak · RSI 42 · price 4,085.37
Lower-high chain under falling trendline; early Asia sweep of the NY low rejected.
Highs have stepped lower since the 4146.92 Asia peak, with the 4128.06 NY high and the 4117.95 lower high both capped by a falling trendline, while a dip to a 4081.51 late NY low followed. Early Asia Friday swept the 4076.32 swing low to 4071.13 and snapped back to the 50% fib near 4098, then faded to 4085 with RSI(14) at 42. Price is holding a 4071–4098 Asian range ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,081.51, 4,076.32, 4,071.13
Resistance: 4,098.44, 4,117.95, 4,128.06
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4098.44 asia high and the falling trendline (~4103) breaks the lower-high chain, opening 4117.95
Failure to hold 4081.51 late ny low re-exposes the 4076.32 swing low and 4071.13 asia low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read