4060–4078 compression since Friday NY; lower high at 4073 after the reopen gap.
Asia reopened about 9.00 below Friday's 4070.71 close. A rebound to the 4073.29 sunday high faded, and price is back near the 4059.80 sunday low, around the 38.2% of the post-NFP leg (4027.52–4078.54). Since the 4078.54 ny high, gold has compressed in a 4060–4078 band, sitting at the lower edge of the 4,065/75 zone flagged after the hot payrolls print. Price is just under a flat EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,059.80, 4,053.78
Resistance: 4,073.29, 4,078.54
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4059.80 sunday low exposes the 4053.78 post-NFP higher low and the 50% retracement near 4053
A close above the 4073.29 sunday high would mark a rejection of the gap lower and put the 4078.54 ny high back in play
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday ahead of Tuesday's US CPI; either could break the 4060–4078 compression
Asia opening range 4059.83–4073.29 after a filled weekend gap, inside Friday's 4027–4081 span.
The Asia session opened with a gap down to 4061.50 from Friday's 4070.71 close. The gap filled within the first bar, and price is now holding a 4059.83 open low to 4073.29 session high range, between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the NFP drop fib. Friday's blowout-payrolls flush to the 4027.52 nfp low has been retraced into a 4053.78 swing low. RSI(14) near 48 shows no momentum either way.
Support: 4,059.83, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,073.29, 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4073.29 session high brings the 4078.54 ny high and 4081.20 london high into view, the top of the 4,065/75 zone flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 4059.83 open low (61.8% of the NFP drop fib) exposes the 4053.78 swing low, with the 4027.52 nfp low below
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4029.96 NFP low, capped below 4078.54 NY high; 4060–4072 consolidation.
Gold reopened in early Asia session with a gap down to 4061.50, filled within the first bar as price tagged the 4072.56 open high, and now trades at 4069.25 inside the late-Friday 4060–4072 consolidation. The rebound from the 4029.96 low after the 165K NFP beat stalled at the 4078.54 NY high. The gap low at 4059.83 sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rebound and has held so far.
Support: 4,059.83, 4,053.78
Resistance: 4,072.56, 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4072.56 open high puts the 4078.54 ny high and 4081.20 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 4059.83 gap low exposes the 4053.78 swing low near the 50% retracement
Thin Asian reopen liquidity; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday, with US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC the larger risk to this read
Higher lows off the 4027.52 NFP low, compressing between 4060 and 4078.54.
Friday's blowout NFP spiked gold to the 4027.52 nfp low. A run of higher lows (4053.78 higher low) then lifted price into a 4060–4078.54 box, with the range low sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the NFP rebound. Sunday's reopen gapped down to 4061.50 and closed the gap inside the first bar. Early Asia session has no range set yet. RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 4,060.00, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4078.54 swing high and 4081.20 london high breaks the consolidation
Failure to hold the 4060 range low exposes the 4053.78 higher low, with the 4027.52 nfp low below
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday, ahead of US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, and could shift this read
Failed break of Asian low, lower highs under 4081.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked gold through the Asian low to the 4027.52 nfp low. The break failed and NY recovered to a 4078.54 ny high, a lower high under the 4081.20 london high. Late NY held a 4060.59–4069 band above the 38.2% level of the nfp low–ny high fib, and price closed Friday at 4071.51 with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4081.20 london high breaks the lower highs sequence, with 4106.87 asia high the next marker
Loss of 4060.59 late ny low and the 4053.78 swing low exposes the 4027.52 nfp low
Price closed the week inside the 4065/75 zone flagged in the macro digest; the Sunday open gap is a risk
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday and US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4027.52, capped under ny high 4078.54.
The blowout NFP print drove a sweep of the Asian range low to the nfp low at 4027.52. Demand then built higher lows at 4053.78 and 4060.59, with the swing low near the 38.2% of the post-NFP leg, while supply capped the move at the ny high of 4078.54, below the london high at 4081.20. The final bar of the week closed at 4071.51, inside the $4,065/75 zone, after a quiet late-NY range of 4061–4069.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
Close above the 4078.54 ny high and 4081.20 london high extends the post-NFP recovery
Failure to hold the 4060.59 swing low breaks the higher-lows line, with the 4053.78 higher low next
Weekly open gap risk; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon, with US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC as the main event
Higher lows off the NFP low, compressing under the NY high.
The 165K NFP beat sent gold through the Asian range low to the nfp low at 4027.52 on the 13:30 UTC bar. Price has since recovered in higher lows (4053.78 higher low, 4060.59 swing low), holding near the 38.2% retracement, and Friday's last bar closed at 4071.51 just under the ny high at 4078.54 and the london high at 4081.20. RSI(14) sits at a neutral 57 with ATR around 580 pips.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Close above the 4078.54 ny high and 4081.20 london high opens the path back toward the 4106.87 asian high
Break of the 4060.59 swing low and higher-low trendline turns the post-NFP recovery into a range; below the 4053.78 higher low the 4027.52 nfp low comes back into view
Monday Asia open gap risk after the weekend; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; the 4065/75 zone is the area to watch for hold or loss
21:17 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, flattening into a range · RSI 58 · price 4,071.51
Higher lows off the 4027.52 low; 4060.6–4078.5 range into Friday close.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked gold through the Asian low at 4035.81 to an NFP low of 4027.52. That break failed, and NY recovered to a 4078.54 high before consolidating above the late NY low at 4060.59. Friday closed at 4071.51, inside the 4065/75 zone, still capped below the London high at 4081.20 and well under the Asia high at 4106.87.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4078.54 NY high and 4081.20 London high opens the path toward the 4106.87 Asia high.
Loss of the late NY low at 4060.59, near the 38.2% of the NFP rally, exposes the 4053.78 swing low.
A break of the 4027.52 NFP low negates the false-break recovery.
Weekly reopen, Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Mon, and US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
HL chain from 4027.52; late-NY range 4060.6–4078.5, capped under London high.
The blowout 165K NFP flushed gold to the 4027.52 nfp low, but NY hours reclaimed the drop with higher lows at 4053.78 and 4060.59. The week's final bar closed at 4071.51, above the 50% retrace of the 4106.87–4027.52 slide and inside the 4065/75 zone. Supply has capped price so far at the 4078.54 ny high, just below the 4081.20 london high and the 61.8% retrace.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4081.20 london high clears the ny high cap and opens the path to the 4106.87 asian high
Loss of the 4060.59 higher low breaks the post-NFP trendline and exposes the 4053.78 swing low, then the 4027.52 nfp low
Market is closed after this bar, so the Monday open carries gap risk. Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday ahead of Tuesday's 13:30 UTC CPI and could shift this read
Higher lows off NFP low; final bar broke late-NY consolidation.
Gold rebounded from the NFP spike low at 4027.52 and printed higher lows at 4053.78 and 4060.59. The 4060.59 pullback low held near the 38.2% retrace, and the week's final bar broke the 4060.6–4069.3 late-NY consolidation to close at 4071.51, inside OCBC's 4065/75 zone. The NY high at 4078.54 and the London high at 4081.20 cap the rebound.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
A close above the 4078.54 NY high and the 4081.20 London high clears the post-NFP rebound ceiling
Loss of the 4060.59 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 4053.78 swing low in play
A weekend gap at reopen, plus Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday, could reset the read
US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the main directional risk; the NFP low at 4027.52 is the reference if the print is hot
20:20 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, higher lows into weekly close · RSI 58 · price 4,071.51
HL chain off NFP low, capped below London high.
The payrolls beat flushed gold to the NFP low at 4027.52, below the Asian lows near 4036. That break did not hold, and NY printed a higher low at 4053.78 and a swing low at 4060.59 along a higher-low trendline. The weekly close at 4071.51 sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4106.87–4027.52 drop, with the ny high at 4078.54 and the london high at 4081.20 capping it inside the 4065/75 zone.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4081.20 london high clears the 61.8% fib and the post-NFP ceiling at the ny high
Break of the 4060.59 swing low cuts the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 4053.78 higher low reopens the nfp low at 4027.52
Window ends at the Friday close; Monday open may gap, with Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speaking Mon ahead of Tue CPI 13:30 UTC
HH/HL chain off the 4027.52 NFP low; late-NY 4060–4069 compression pushed higher into the close.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) flushed gold to a 4027.52 nfp low in the first NY bar. Price has since printed higher lows at 4053.78 and the 4060.59 swing low, under a post-NFP high at 4078.54. Late NY compressed between 4060 and 4069 before the final bar closed the week at 4071.51, back inside the 4065/75 zone, with the london high at 4081.20 and the session high at 4106.87 overhead.
Support: 4,060.59, 4,053.78, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,081.20, 4,106.87
What it said to watch
Break below the 4060.59 swing low and the post-NFP HL line ends the higher-low chain; 4053.78 higher low and the 38.2–50% fib area come next
Acceptance above the 4078.54 post-NFP high exposes the 4081.20 london high, then the 4106.87 session high
Weekend gap risk at the Monday Asia open; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this read
Loss of the 4027.52 nfp low would negate the post-payrolls recovery structure