Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:12 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 47 · price 4,069.61
Lower-high/lower-low chain since early-Sep 4510 high; rebound capped under falling EMA50.
Two-month downtrend from the early-September 4510 high, with each weekly rally failing at a lower high and price still below a falling EMA(50). The midterm-driven USD slide lifted gold off the late-October 3870 swing low to a 4146.92 swing high, short of the 50% fib at 4190 and the lower-highs line from the 4217 oct high. Friday's NFP beat knocked it back to 4070, sitting on EMA(20) with the nfp low at 4027.77 underneath and RSI neutral near 47.
Support: 4,027.77, 3,975.70, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Waller speaks 09:00 UTC the same day
- D1 close above the 4146.92 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 50% fib at 4190, then the 4217 oct high
- Failure to hold the 4027.77 nfp low exposes the 3975.70 oct low, and below it the 3870.26 swing low
- DXY holding above 102.00 keeps the rebound capped beneath the falling EMA(50)
19:27 UTC
Downtrend, first higher high attempt · RSI 45 · price 4,071.51
LH/LL chain since early Sep; lower-high line broken.
Gold has been in a two-month downtrend from the early-September 4510 high. A chain of lower highs and lower lows ran down to the Oct 30 cycle low at 3870, with EMA(50) falling overhead. The midterm-driven USD slide lifted price through the lower-high line to a two-week high at 4146.92, the week high, on Thursday. The blowout NFP then pulled it back to ~4071, holding just above EMA(20) and above Friday's low at 4027.
Support: 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,227.28, 4,244.29
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4146.92 week high, near the Sep-Oct leg 38.2% (~4115), would be the first higher high since September and brings the 4207-4227 oct highs into view
- Only a recovery through the 4244 sept floor, where the late-September breakdown began, would invalidate the downtrend read
- Failure to hold the fri low at 4027 reopens the 3975 oct 22 low and the 3870 cycle low
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC the same day