Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from swing high · RSI 55 · price 4,071.51
Higher lows from 3870; flag-like pullback after 4146.92 impulse.
Gold holds a higher-low sequence since the 3870 base and the 3895.50 low, with the election-driven impulse peaking at the 4146.92 swing high before the blowout NFP knocked price back. The pullback low at 4027.52 sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that leg. Price is now pressing the descending pullback line just under the 4081 lower high, with EMA20 still above EMA50 and ATR(14) elevated near $39.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 4081 lower high breaks the pullback line and reopens the 4146.92 swing high
- Failure to hold the 4027.52 pullback low exposes the 4000 round number and the 61.8% fib near 3991
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:26 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from 4147 high · RSI 57 · price 4,071.51
Higher lows since 3870; lower highs since 4147.
Gold built higher lows off the 3870 base, with a higher low at 3895.5. It then cleared the late-October 4082.67 prior high on the post-election USD slide and printed a swing high at 4146.92. The blowout NFP drove a flag-like pullback of lower highs. That pullback held the 4027.52 swing low, just under the 38.2% retracement of the rally, and price is now back above EMA20 near 4050, pressing the falling line around 4078-4082. ATR(14) near 3,900 pips remains expanded, so the correction has not compressed into a tight range yet.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,000.00, 3,895.50
Resistance: 4,082.67, 4,117.95, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the falling line and 4082.67 prior high would end the lower-high sequence and put the 4117.95 lower high and 4146.92 swing high back in play
- Failure to hold the 4027.52 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4000 round number and the 50% fib near 4008
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon, Waller Tue 09:00 UTC
- A deeper slide toward the 3895.5 higher low would negate the rally structure from the 3870 base