21:07 UTC
Downtrend, ranging above eight-week low · RSI 42 · price 4,139.46
Lower highs since mid-Sept; 4110-4227 range after breakdown.
Gold has printed a lower-high sequence from 4442.91 and 4399.53 and a lower-high trendline. Last Monday's breakdown through the 4244-4255 prior low zone ran to the 4110.84 8-week low, and the market has since held a 4110-4227 range. Friday's NFP miss produced a spike to the 4227.28 range top, near the 61.8% fib of the 4315.66-4110.84 decline and the trendline. Supply capped it and the bar reversed back toward the 4125 swing low, consistent with the digest's point that rising long-end yields outweigh soft data. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and price trades under both, while ATR(14) near 3,665 pips is slightly compressed versus the 4,000+ pip readings earlier in the window.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,250.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 4227.28 range top and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the prior low near 4250 is the next level overhead
- Pivot highs near 4192 have capped three times this week; acceptance above them shifts focus back to the range top
- Failure to hold the 4125 swing low exposes the 4110.84 8-week low; a close below it resumes the downtrend leg
- ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and Wednesday's FOMC Minutes could materially shift this read via yields and USD