Tight 4136–4150 box after 4227→4125 leg; early Asia inside Friday's late range.
Gold rejected the NFP spike at 4227 and slid to the 4125 nfp low as long-end yields climbed. It then based in a 4136–4150 box into Friday's close. Early Asia session is still inside that box, capped by the swing high at 4149.8 (23.6% fib of the post-NFP leg) with the Asia low at 4138.6 below; RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR(14) ~540 pips.
Support: 4,138.58, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,164.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.8 swing high opens the 38.2% fib at 4164.2
Failure to hold the 4130.1 higher low exposes the 4125.2 nfp low
Break of the 4138.6 Asia low puts the base floor near 4136 in play
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next driver that could break the box
23:32 UTC
Post-NFP downtrend, stalling into a shallow recovery · RSI 48 · price 4,145.43
Higher lows off 4125 low, capped below 23.6% fib.
Friday's NFP miss spiked gold to 4227 before a full rejection to the 4125.2 nfp low as long-end yields climbed. The Asia-session weekly open is drifting in a tight 4138–4148 band, building higher lows but still capped at the 23.6% fib near 4149.8. Price holds just above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 4,138.50, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,160.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 4149.8 opens the 4160 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 4138.5 open low breaks the higher-low recovery line and exposes the 4125.2 nfp low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Post-NFP downleg, basing in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 4,144.31
Range 4136.60–4149.81 since late Friday NY, holding above the 4125.22 NFP low.
Gold's Friday NFP spike to 4227 was a false break above the 4196 London high. It reversed to the 4125.22 NFP low as long-end yields rose, and price has since consolidated in a 4136.60–4149.81 range. Monday's early Asia session has an Asian range of 4138.58–4148.23 so far, capped below the 4149.81 late NY high, which sits on the 23.6% fib of the spike-and-fade; RSI(14) is neutral near 48.
Support: 4,138.58, 4,136.60, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,164.21
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4149.81 late NY high breaks the range ceiling and puts the 4164.21 fib 38.2 in play
Loss of the 4138.58 asia low and the 4136.60 range floor would expose the 4125.22 nfp low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC Monday (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4125.22, capped near 4150 swing high.
Gold spiked to 4227 on Friday's NFP miss. It was rejected there and sold to a 4125.22 post-NFP low as long-end yields climbed, then built a base of rising lows. The early Asia session reopened with a small gap up and is pressing the 4149.8 swing high, which lines up with the 23.6% fib, and RSI(14) at ~55 is mid-range.
Support: 4,138.50, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,160.10, 4,176.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.8 swing high / 23.6% fib opens the 4160 breakdown area, then the 50% fib near 4176
Loss of the 4138.5 open low and the rising-lows line returns focus to the 4130 swing low and the 4125.22 post-NFP low
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled risk that could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Post-NFP downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 4,143.91
Rising lows off 4125, capped below 4150 since Friday.
Gold's NFP spike to 4227 was rejected and fully unwound to the 4125 nfp low as long-end yields climbed. Since then it has held a 4136–4150 range of rising lows. Early Asia trade after the weekly open sits inside that range, between the 4138.5 open low and the 4146.2 open high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and price above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 4,138.50, 4,130.00, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,146.20, 4,149.80, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
A close above the 4149.8 bounce high (23.6% retrace) exposes the 4164 fib 38.2 level
Loss of the 4138.5 open low, then the 4130 swing low, breaks the rising lows line and puts the 4125 nfp low back in focus
4146.2 open high is the first cap in thin Asia session trade
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4149.81 under the 4227 spike; tight 4125–4150 base.
The NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28, but the move was fully rejected as long-end yields climbed, unwinding to the 4125.22 NFP low by NY afternoon. The late-Friday bounce capped at 4149.81, which sits on the 23.6% of the NFP spike fib. Sunday's thin Asia session opened flat, holding a 4138.6–4146.2 range below the open high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 4,133.50, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,146.19, 4,149.81, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.81 late Fri high and 23.6% opens the 38.2% fib near 4164
Loss of the 4133.5 Fri Asia low and then the 4125.22 NFP low exposes the 4110 8-week low
Failure at the 4146.19 open high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, prices paid) could materially shift this read
22:18 UTC
Downtrend after NFP spike rejection, now basing · RSI 40 · price 4,141.78
Post-NFP selloff into a tight 4136–4150 base, lower highs since late Friday.
Gold's NFP spike to 4227.28 was rejected and unwound to the 4125.22 post-NFP low as long-end yields climbed. It then based between 4136 and 4150 into Friday's close, with rebounds capped at the 23.6% fib near 4149.8. Monday's Asia session has opened inside that band, below the session high at 4146.19 and under the EMA20 near 4144.7, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,146.19, 4,149.81, 4,164.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 4149.8 breaks the post-NFP base and opens the 38.2% fib at 4164.2
Failure to hold the fri late low at 4136.6 exposes the post-NFP low at 4125.22
Asia session high at 4146.19 is the first cap; a close back above it ends the lower-high sequence
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read through yields
22:05 UTC
Post-NFP downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 49 · price 4,139.46
4227 spike rejected, 4125 low, 4130–4150 range since.
Gold reopened flat at 4139 in thin Asia session trade. Friday's NFP spike to 4227 fully reversed to the 4125 nfp low as long-end yields climbed, and price has since coiled between the asian low near 4133.5 and the range high at 4149.8, which sits on the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,133.50, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
A break of the 4133.5 asian low, then the 4125 nfp low, would extend the post-NFP lower-low sequence.
A close above the 4149.8 range high opens the 38.2% fib near 4164.
Asia session liquidity is thin at the weekly open. ISM Services on Mon at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst.
21:47 UTC
Post-NFP downleg, flattening into the close · RSI 45 · price 4,139.46
Lower high at 4176.77, NFP low 4125.22, tight 4125–4150 range since.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold through the Asian high to 4227, but the move failed as long-end yields rose. The NY sell-off made a lower high at 4176.77 and probed under the Asian low to the nfp low at 4125.22. The weekly close sits in a 4125–4150 range: a higher low at 4130.08 holds, while the range top at 4149.81 has capped price and it trades below the ema20 near 4143.5.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,143.50, 4,149.81, 4,176.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.81 range top opens the 38.2% spike fib near 4164 and the 4176.77 lower high
Loss of the 4125.22 nfp low extends the post-NFP leg toward the ~4110 8-week low
Weekend gap risk at the Asia open; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could reset the range
21:32 UTC
Downtrend after NFP spike, basing into Friday close · RSI 45 · price 4,139.46
Post-NFP lower highs, tight 4125–4150 consolidation in late NY.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 at the NY open. The move was rejected and fully reversed as long-end yields rose, with gold sliding through the London low to a 4125.22 NY low. Late NY compressed into a 4125–4150 range, with the range top capping twice. Price closed the week at 4139, below EMA20 and EMA50, having retraced only ~14% of the drop.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,166.07, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 4164 and the 4166 london low
Failure to hold the 4130 swing low and 4125 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the ~$4,110 eight-week low
Repeated failure below the 4200 psych level keeps the post-NFP rejection intact
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk at the Asia open
21:17 UTC
Downtrend after NFP spike fade, flat into weekly close · RSI 44 · price 4,139.46
Post-NFP lower low at 4125.22, weak bounce capped near fib 23.6.
The NFP miss spiked gold through the London range to 4227.28. Rising long-end yields then reversed the whole move to a NY low of 4125.22, a false break of the session highs. The late-NY bounce stalled at 4149.81, right at the fib 23.6 of that drop, and price closed the week at 4139 under both EMAs with the 4130.08 swing low just below.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
Weekly open gap away from the 4139 close would reset the intraday levels
A close below the 4125.22 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the ~4110 eight-week low cited in the digest
Reclaiming 4149.81 (fib 23.6) opens the 4166.07 london low as the next reference
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) with Prices Paid could materially shift this read
The NFP-miss spike to the 4227.28 nfp high was fully rejected during NY hours. Rising long-end yields drove a slide to a 4125.22 ny low, below the asian low at 4133.79. The late-session recovery stalled at the 4149.81 late high near the 23.6% fib, and the week closed at 4139 inside a 4125–4150 consolidation.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,174.65, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
Sunday open gap away from the 4139 close could reset the consolidation
M15 close below the 4125.22 ny low extends the post-NFP lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4149.81 late high and 23.6% fib opens the 38.2% near 4164 and the 4174.65 pre-nfp base
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read