22:06 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off yearly low · RSI 37 · price 3,939.54
Lower-high/lower-low chain since early-Sep peak.
Gold has held a clean lower-high/lower-low chain since the 4,510 early-September peak. Price stayed below a falling EMA20 and EMA50 through October, when liquidation drove a near-7% monthly drop into the 3,870 yearly low on Oct 30. The three sessions since have held above that low and the 3,920 recent low, and the post-midterm USD slide added support, but daily closes remain below the 4,000 round number. Overhead, the descending trendline off the September highs sits near 4,070, stacking with the ema20 at 4,052 and the 4,083 swing high to form one resistance zone about 38% of the way back down the Sep–Oct decline.
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4,000 round number puts the ema20 near 4,052 and the descending trendline near 4,070 in play
- Close above the 4,083 swing high would break the lower-high sequence that has defined the Sep–Oct decline
- Failure to hold the 3,920 recent low exposes the 3,870 yearly low; a close below it confirms another lower-low
- Fri NFP (f/c 65K) and AHE (0.3% m/m), with Thu jobless claims and Fed's Hammack and Williams, could materially shift this read via December hike odds