Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend, having broken from the 4595 swing high to a YTD low at 4024 as hot 4.2% CPI revived Fed higher-for-longer pricing and a stronger USD. The recovery to ~4213 is corrective, stalling near 4246 — roughly the 38.2% retrace of the selloff — with the EMA50 capping above near 4300. Price has reclaimed EMA20 but the broader structure of lower highs is intact.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4246 opens the path toward the ema50 near 4300
Failure to hold 4100 psych reopens the 4024 ytd low
FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 is in a clear downtrend after a near-$400 three-day selloff that broke the prior range and printed a ytd low at 4023, with hot 4.2% CPI reviving higher-for-longer Fed pricing. Price has since clawed back toward 4212 and is chopping in a 4100-4246 band — a corrective bounce that has reclaimed the EMA20 but remains capped well below the EMA50. The recovery off 4023 looks corrective into the FOMC dot plot rather than a structural turn.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,023.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,330.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4246 swing high would extend the corrective bounce toward 4330
Failure to hold 4100 reopens the 4023 ytd low and 4000 psych support
FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the pivotal catalyst and could shift this read materially
Lower highs into 4023 washout, V-recovery underway.
Gold sold off hard through the window, breaking the multi-day base and washing out to a 6-month low at 4023 after the hot 4.2% CPI cemented higher-for-longer Fed pricing. A V-shaped short-cover bounce, helped by Trump cancelling Iran strikes, has retraced roughly half the impulse leg back toward 4204, with 4250 the immediate cap. ATR(14) is heavily expanded and price remains below EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the broader structure of lower highs intact.
Support: 4,131.00
Resistance: 4,250.00
What it said to watch
Rejection or break of the 4250 cap defines the next swing
Failure to hold 4131 reopens the path to the 4023 6mo low
UoM Michigan + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC can materially shift this read
Gold collapsed over the last two weeks as hot CPI cemented higher-for-longer Fed expectations, breaking the multi-week range and washing out to a 6-month low at 4023. A sharp short-cover bounce off that level — aided by Trump cancelling the Iran strikes — has lifted price to a 4246 bounce high before settling at 4204. ATR(14) has expanded sharply, an elevated-volatility regime, with price reclaiming EMA20 but still well below a falling EMA50.
Support: 4,131.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.47, 4,363.46
What it said to watch
UoM Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 4246 bounce high extends the relief rally toward 4363
Failure to hold 4131 swing low reopens the 4023 6mo low and 4000 psych
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near recent low.
H4 remains a clear downtrend — gold shed roughly $500 into a 6-month low near 4023 as the hot CPI/PPI inflation repricing cemented a higher-for-longer Fed read. The subsequent relief bounce, aided by a softer USD on Iran de-escalation headlines, has reclaimed the EMA20 but stalled below 4246 and sits well under the EMA50. ATR(14) is sharply elevated, so the recovery is unfolding inside an expanded, volatile range rather than a structural trend change.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,023.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,340.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4246 opens the path toward the 4340 ema50 region
Loss of 4100 reopens the 4023 6m low and 4000 psych zone
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 42 · price 4,193.65
Lower highs and lower lows, oversold rebound underway.
Gold collapsed ~$400 to a 6-month low near 4023 this week as hot CPI/PPI revived higher-for-longer Fed pricing, then snapped back to 4246 on a USD-driven relief bounce. Price remains below EMA20 and EMA50 with structure firmly lower-low/lower-high, and the recovery has stalled around 4193 after rejection at 4246. ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting the violent two-way range rather than a settled trend.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,023.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.00
What it said to watch
Close back below 4100 reopens the 4023 swing low and 4000 psych
Reclaim of 4246 bounce high needed to ease the downside structure
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off six-month low.
Gold was gutted roughly $400 in three sessions to a six-month low at 4023.89, wiping out YTD gains as hot CPI/payrolls and a firm USD reinforced the higher-for-longer Fed read. Price is staging an oversold bounce off that low, but it has stalled under the 4246 swing high and the prior 4100 cap now acts as the pivot it reclaimed. Structure remains a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows below both EMAs.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,023.89, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.47
What it said to watch
Michigan Sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A clean break of 4023 swing low opens the path toward the 4000 psych level
H4 close back above 4246 swing high would challenge the lower-high sequence
Lower highs / lower lows, bouncing off six-month low.
Gold collapsed roughly $400 over three sessions into a six-month low at 4023.89 as hot CPI and a firm USD drove the hawkish-Fed read, wiping out the year's gains. An oversold bounce has reclaimed the 4100 cap and stalled near 4246 before easing back to 4194. ATR(14) has expanded sharply — this is a volatility-expansion regime, not compression, with price holding well below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,023.89, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.47, 4,350.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 4100 reopens the 4023 low and the 4000 psychological level
H4 close above 4246 would extend the oversold bounce toward the 4350 pivot
Michigan Sentiment today 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows, sharp reclaim off the low.
Gold remains in an aggressive H4 downtrend after a ~$400 three-day crash off records, driven by the hot CPI and blowout payrolls that killed rate-cut hopes and pushed price below the 200-day. The selloff bottomed near 4023 and an oversold bounce has now reclaimed the 4100 cap, snapping back to 4216 with the last bar rejecting from 4246. Structure stays lower-high/lower-low until rallies clear the 4290 prior-range shelf.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,067.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,290.00
What it said to watch
Close back below 4100 reasserts the downside toward the 4067 swing low and 4000 psych
Reclaim and hold above 4290 prior range needed to challenge the downtrend
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off $4,023 low.
Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend — a >$400 three-day rout below the 200-day SMA after in-line CPI and a blowout payrolls print killed rate-cut hopes. Price carved a low at $4,023 and is staging an oversold bounce back through $4,100 to $4,216, but the move sits well below the EMA50 with lower highs intact. ATR is elevated, reflecting the expansion phase rather than compression.
What it said to watch
Clean break of $4,000 psych opens deeper losses
Failure to reclaim $4,263 keeps the lower-high structure intact
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset the read