Gold remains in a downtrend, carving lower highs since the 4203 peak and now pressing back into the 3986-4000 zone. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with the recent 3986 dip holding above the 3959 swing low, and RSI is basing rather than confirming — a bullish divergence flagged as bears looking exhausted. ATR is moderate; the sub-4021 slip has taken price under the week's range floor into a pivotal US CPI print.
Support: 3,986.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,070.00, 4,203.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4070 range floor would break the lower-high sequence
Break below 3959 swing low confirms a fresh lower low
XAUUSD is rolling over in a clean downtrend, printing lower highs since the 4202 top and closing the latest bar at 4014 with price pinned near the 76.4% retrace of the 3959→4202 recovery. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR expanding as the leg extends, and the $4,100 pivot capped every attempt on the way down. The move fits the heavy pre-CPI tone as USD stays bid.
Downtrend intact on H4: a chain of lower highs since the $4,382 peak, with price now rolling back below the $4,021 recent low toward the $4,000 psych level. Price sits under both EMA20 and EMA50 and the recent bounce to $4,200 was capped and sold, consistent with gold trading heavy into US CPI. Momentum is soft but not yet stretched, RSI near 37.
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of $4,000 psych opens the $3,964 swing low
H4 close back above $4,100 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Gold remains in a corrective/bearish structure after the slide from 4380; the relief bounce off the 3964 swing low stalled at 4202 and price has since carved lower highs back below the 4100 pivot. Recent bars are consolidating in the 4040-4080 band with EMA20 and EMA50 capping overhead, keeping the 4021 recent low as the immediate downside marker. The move rejects at 4100 repeatedly, and price now sits near the 0.618 retracement of the prior bounce.
Support: 4,021.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read into the next bars
Sustained H4 close back above the 4100 pivot would negate the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4021 recent low opens the path toward the 3964 swing low
Gold is grinding lower in a corrective structure, printing lower highs since the 4202 swing high and now trading sub-4100 with price capped under both EMA20 and EMA50. The 4100 pivot has repeatedly rejected rallies while demand held around the 4021 recent low; the metal is on the back foot after this week's ceasefire-then-strike whipsaw. ATR(14) remains elevated, reflecting the wide two-way swings into the US CPI print.
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,138.08
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below 4021 confirms a lower low toward 3972
Reclaim of the 4100 pivot needed to challenge the 4138 lower high
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing into range · RSI 43 · price 4,066.20
Lower highs, coiling above weekly low.
Gold remains in a downtrend on H4, carving lower highs since the 4382 peak with price capped below both EMA20 and EMA50 near the $4,100 pivot. The pullback into the low-4040s keeps the market pinned just above the 4021 weekly low, with renewed US-Iran headlines and a firmer USD weighing on the metal. Price is coiling between the 4100 cap and the 4021 floor into Tuesday's CPI.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US June CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could break this range
H4 close below 4021 weekly low opens the path to the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4100 pivot would ease the downside pressure
Rolling over below swing highs, holding above 4021.
Gold remains in a broad H4 downtrend since the 4382 high, with a chain of lower highs and a deep flush to 3959 before a relief bounce to 4182. Price has since rolled back under the 4100 pivot and now trades around 4066, capped by supply near 4130-4180 and holding above the 4021 weekly low. Renewed US-Iran headlines and a firmer USD keep the structure heavy into Tuesday's CPI.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,138.00, 4,182.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4100 pivot needed to challenge the 4138 prior high
Failure to hold 4021 weekly low opens the 4000 round number
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Rolling over below 4100 pivot after failed bounce.
Gold remains in a corrective downtrend, printing lower highs since the 4202 swing high and now slipping back below the 4100 pivot toward the 4021 weekly low. The relief bounce off 4021 stalled around 4138, keeping supply capping rallies under down-sloping trendline resistance. ATR is holding a wide regime, so moves stay fast into Tuesday's US CPI.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,138.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4021 weekly low confirms a fresh lower low toward 4000 psych
Reclaim of the 4100 pivot on a close would neutralise the lower-high read
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially reset this structure
Gold remains heavy after the multi-day slide from 4382 to a 3964 swing low, with the corrective bounce to 4202 now rolling over into a series of lower highs (4202, 4180, 4138). Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, consistent with the digest's read of a metal capped under its moving averages. The 4100 pivot has repeatedly capped rallies, and the latest H4 candles are sliding back toward the 4021 weekly-low zone.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00, 3,964.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,138.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4021 weekly low opens the path to 4000 psych and the 3964 swing low
Reclaim of the 4100 pivot needed to challenge the lower-high trendline near 4138
US CPI Tue 14 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, now corrective range · RSI 44 · price 4,083.77
Range 4000-4200 after impulsive decline off 4382.
Gold sold off hard from the 4382 high to 3964 low, then settled into a corrective 4000-4200 range with a sequence of lower highs (4202, 4186, 4138) capping rallies. Price is back below the 4100 pivot at 4083 after rejection near 4138, keeping the tone corrective. Context is a rates-driven cap on bullion with US CPI the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,138.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 4041 opens the 4000/3964 range low
H4 close above 4138 challenges the 4200 range top and lower-high trendline
Repeated failure at the 4100 pivot confirms corrective structure
Range between 4021 and 4180 after impulsive selloff.
Gold rolled over from the 4382 high early in the window to a 3959 low, and has since chopped sideways in a 4021-4180 range as the US-Iran de-escalation drained the safe-haven bid. Price is pinned just below the 4100 pivot with ATR(14) compressing, and both EMAs are capping overhead. The read stays corrective into Tuesday's US CPI.
Support: 4,021.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,180.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4180 opens the path toward the 4202 prior high
Failure to hold the 4021 weekly low confirms a lower low
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read