After the early-window collapse from 4340 to the 3960 zone, gold has been carving a wide 3960-4200 range with a higher low at 3986 versus the prior 3959 floor. The soft June CPI print sparked a relief bounce off 3986 to 4103 before this pullback to 4054, leaving price mid-range and pinned just under the 4070 EMA20/EMA50 cluster. Lower highs from 4202 keep the overhead structure heavy while demand at the 3986 double-bottom keeps the range intact.
Support: 3,986.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,103.00, 4,143.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4103 reopens the path to 4143 and the 4200 range high
Failure to hold 3986 confirms a lower low and exposes 3900
US PPI Wed 12:30 GMT and Warsh testimony 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend stabilizing into range · RSI 53 · price 4,063.64
Range between 3940 floor and 4195 cap after month-long slide.
Gold shed roughly 10% from the early-month 4380 area before basing into a 3940-4195 range over the last two weeks. Today's soft US CPI miss triggered a relief bid that reclaimed the 4000 psych pivot and pushed price back above the EMA20 toward the range mid. Double-bottom demand around 3940/3960 has held twice, but the descending lower-high line and EMA50 overhead keep the broader tone corrective.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,195.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4100 range top opens the path back toward the 4195 swing high
Loss of 3940 range low confirms a fresh lower-low and revives the downtrend
Warsh testimony and Wed PPI could materially shift this read
Range building above 3940 after multi-week decline.
The multi-week decline from the mid-4300s bottomed near $3,940 and price has since been basing in a 3940-4200 range, carving a higher low at 3986 versus the earlier 3942 trough. Today's soft US CPI miss lifted gold back above the $4,000 pivot, with the last bar reclaiming $4,060 before fading off the 4100 zone. Price sits back at EMA20 but remains below EMA50, keeping the recovery corrective within the broader downtrend.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,986.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,195.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4100 opens the path to the 4195 range top
Failure to hold 4000/3986 exposes the 3942 range low
Warsh testimony and Fed speaker cluster today could reshape this read
PPI tomorrow 12:30 GMT is the next inflation checkpoint
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near range base · RSI 43 · price 4,030.78
Range within broader downtrend off 4382.
Gold remains in a downtrend off the 4382 high, now consolidating in a 3940-4180 range after the sub-4000 flush. Price is pinned below EMA20/EMA50 near 4030 following the hawkish Fed repricing and the June CPI print. The 3940/60 double-bottom base has so far held while 4110 caps rebounds.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,110.00, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3940 confirms a lower-low toward the yearly low
Reclaim of 4110 needed to shift the range read
Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact with a series of lower highs since the 4200 area; gold flushed below the psych 4000 pivot on oil-driven inflation fears and Waller hike talk before stabilising near 4030. The higher low at 3986 versus the earlier 3960 yearly-low print leaves a mild bullish RSI divergence, but price remains capped under the 4070 range high with EMA20 and EMA50 overhead.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,986.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,070.00
What it said to watch
US June CPI just released is the binary driver — a hot core reopens the path toward the 3960 yearly low
H4 close back above 4070 range high challenges the lower-high sequence
Loss of 3986 swing low and the psych 4000 pivot confirms a fresh lower low
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,020.94
Lower highs since 4202, testing 4000 pivot.
Rolling over in a downtrend of lower highs since the 4202 swing high early-month, price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 and now presses the $4,000 psych pivot after repeated rejection at the $4,100 range cap. The 3964 swing low and the $3,900 yearly low mark the next downside markers, with gold pressured below its major averages into today's US CPI. ATR sits in a mid-range regime, neither compressed nor expanding sharply.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,964.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC are high-impact catalysts for the next break
H4 close below 4000 opens the path to the 3964 swing low and 3900 yearly low
Reclaim of 4100 would break the lower-high structure
Consolidating above 3960 low after multi-week selloff.
Gold remains in a downtrend since the failed push to 4382, printing lower highs into a consolidation band between the 3960 yearly low and the repeatedly-rejected 4100 cap. Price broke below the 4000 psych pivot into the US CPI window and is now hovering just above it at 4020 after a shallow bounce off 3986. EMA20 and EMA50 stack overhead, keeping the near-term bias capped below 4100.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3960 confirms a fresh lower low toward 3900
Reclaim of 4100 range cap needed to negate the downtrend read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony at 14:00 UTC are the decisive catalysts for the next break
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective range · RSI 42 · price 4,018.86
Lower highs since the 4380 peak, rolling toward 4000.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the 4380 peak, carving lower highs and settling into a corrective range between the 3942 swing low and the 4202 range top. Price is pressing back toward the 4000 psych level after a sequence of rejections below 4094, with ATR still elevated as the CPI-driven repricing keeps ranges wide. The market_context frames this as a Waller-hawkish, oil-led inflation move rather than flow-driven.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,094.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4000 psych opens the 3942 swing low and the 3900 yearly low
Reclaim of the 4094 lower high would ease the downside pressure
US June CPI at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) is the decisive catalyst that could shift this read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near 4000 · RSI 43 · price 4,018.86
Lower highs, capped below 4100 pivot.
Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend off the 4382 high, a run of lower highs dragging price sub-4000 after Waller tied hot CPI to potential Fed hikes. Price is now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50 and has been capped repeatedly below the 4100 pivot, but demand has stepped in twice around 3960-4000, producing the current stabilisation into 4018. ATR remains elevated, keeping swings wide ahead of the CPI catalyst.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US June CPI at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) is the decisive catalyst and could reshape this read
Failure to hold 4000 opens the 3900 yearly low
H4 close above the 4100 pivot invalidates the capped range read
Gold remains in a stepwise H4 downtrend, carving lower highs from 4203 with price now pinned at the 4000 psych level after fading the 4120-4132 zone. The recent 3986 low held above the earlier 3960 swing, and price is trading below both EMA20 and EMA50 — the bearish structure from the collapse through the early-March trendline is intact but RSI is flattening as bears tire. Rallies stay capped below the 4100 pivot into US CPI.
Support: 3,960.00, 4,021.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,132.00
What it said to watch
US June CPI 12:30 UTC — the week's key catalyst for this read
Loss of 3986 swing low opens the 3960 / 4021 weekly-low zone
H4 close back above the 4100 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed Chair Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone
Gold remains in a downtrend, carving lower highs and pinned below the 4100 pivot as hawkish-Fed and oil-driven inflation fears cap rallies. Price is now pressing the 4000 psych level, but the recent low near 3986 holds above the 3959 prior low, and RSI is basing into that decline — a bullish momentum divergence. ATR remains elevated, keeping swings wide into the CPI catalyst.
Support: 3,986.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,070.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
US June CPI at 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst and could break this range
H4 close below 3986 confirms a lower low, opening 3959
Reclaim of 4070 needed to challenge the 4100 pivot