Lower highs from 4200 rejection; tight early-Asia range.
Early Asia session is pressing the bottom of a tight 4155–4163 range. It follows NY's slide from the 4189.57 lower high to the 4146.98 ny low, and the rebound stalled at 4166.51, near the fib 38.2 of the 4200→4147 drop. Lower highs under the lower-high trendline remain intact as 5.22% 10y yields and Fed hike bets weigh ahead of CPI, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,155.10, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,162.94, 4,166.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4155.10 session low brings the 4146.98 ny low back into play
Close above the 4162.94 session high and the lower-high trendline challenges the downtrend read, with the fib 38.2 at 4166.5–4167.4 next
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~13h) and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows; bounce capped at 38.2% retrace.
Gold sold off through NY hours from 4189 to a 4146.98 NY low as yields climbed. The rebound stalled at 4166.51, just under the fib 38.2 of the 4200 to 4147 drop, and early Asia is slipping from a 4162.94 asia high to a 4155.10 session low, with the prior asia lo at 4150.70 the next reference below.
Support: 4,155.10, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,162.94, 4,166.51, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4146.98 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above 4166.51 (fib 38.2) and the 4173.14 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend from 4200, consolidating after NY low · RSI 40 · price 4,157.76
Lower highs from 4200.49; post-sweep box 4157.50–4166.51 under the 38.2% fib.
The NY session sold off from the 4190.78 lower high to 4146.98, briefly sweeping the 4150.70 Asian low before a sharp rejection bounce, but the recovery stalled at the 4166.51 range top, just under the 38.2% fib of the 4200–4147 drop. Early Asia is now probing the 4157.50 range floor with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs, as firm yields keep gold capped into CPI.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.74, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4157.50 range floor exposes the 4146.98 NY low, then the 4140 prior low area
Close above the 4166.51 range top opens the 50% fib at 4173.74; the 4190.78 lower high still caps the sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~13h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; a core print of 0.3% or above vs 0.2% f/c is the key swing
Lower highs from NY open, tight range 4157.5–4166.5 above swept low.
Gold was sold from the 4189.6 NY open high as 10y yields near 5.22% and WTI above $94 capped the bounce. The selling swept the Asian low at 4150.70 to a 4147.0 session low before a sharp rebound. Since then price has been coiling in a 4157.5–4166.5 range into early Asia, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,147.00
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.50, 4,189.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 range high and the falling trendline opens the 4173.5 fib 50% retracement
Loss of the 4157.5 range low puts the 4147.0 session low back in play; a close below it confirms a lower-low
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read, with core CPI the key print
A move back toward the ny open high at 4189.6 would negate the lower-high sequence
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 46 · price 4,160.65
Lower highs from 4189.6; tight 4159-4162 range above the late-NY low.
NY session sold off from 4189.6 to a 4147.0 NY low as the 10y yield climbed back toward 5.22%, erasing the Asia rally toward 4200. The bounce stalled at the 4166.5 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and early Asia is compressing near 4160 just under EMA20 and the lower-high line, with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,147.00
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 4173.1, the prior NY lower high
Failure to hold the 4157.5 late-ny low exposes the 4147.0 NY low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (about 14h), with core vs the 0.2% MoM forecast, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC first
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into rollover · RSI 51 · price 4,160.62
Lower highs off 4200.49, tight 4157.5–4166.5 range.
Asia's rally stalled at the 4200.49 day high. NY then reversed it, dipping through the Asian low to a 4146.98 day low before an immediate snap-back. That sweep has since compressed into a 4157.5–4166.5 range through the rollover, with price pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) near 51 and rallies capped below the 38.2% fib of the selloff as yields stay firm ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.14, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 range high reclaims the 38.2% fib (~4167.4) and brings the 4173.1 lower high into play
Break of the 4157.5 range low exposes the 4147 day low; a close beneath it confirms a lower-low
Asian range forming now inside 4157.5–4166.5; thin rollover liquidity can produce noisy prints
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~14h), core vs 0.2% f/c, plus Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing into early Asia · RSI 47 · price 4,159.71
Lower-high chain from 4200.49; bounce capped below 38.2% retrace.
Gold printed a 4200.49 session high in Asia, then lost the London range after the NY open as 10y yields climbed back to 5.223% and WTI topped $94, sliding to a 4146.98 session low. The bounce high at 4166.51 stalled just under the 38.2% fib. Price is drifting near 4160 in early Asia, below EMA20, with the late-NY low at 4157.50 holding so far.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.14, 4,189.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.51 bounce high and the lower-high line breaks the descending chain; next reference is the 4173.14 lower high (50% fib), then the 4189.57 NY high
Failure to hold the 4157.50 late-NY low exposes the 4146.98 session low and the 4140 range floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (about 14h) could materially shift this read; core 0.2% m/m is the swing figure
Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC is the first scheduled risk before CPI
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after sweep · RSI 46 · price 4,160.93
Lower highs from 4200.49; post-sweep coil 4157-4167.
Asia's rally to 4200.49 failed. NY broke the asian low at 4150.70 and swept to a swing low at 4146.98 before an 18:00 UTC reclaim, as 10y yields above 5.2% weighed into CPI. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4166.51 bounce high, just under the 38.2% retracement, leaving price coiling above the 4157.50 late low with the lower-high chain intact.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.14, 4,189.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.51 bounce high and the 4173.14 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 4189.57 ny high rejection area sits above
Loss of the 4157.50 late low reopens the 4150.70 asian low and the 4146.98 swing low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC comes first
Lower highs from 4200; tight 4157.5–4166.5 range late NY.
The Asia rally to 4200.49 faded, and London stalled below the 4190.78 session cap. NY then cut lower through a lower high at 4173.14 and swept the 4150.70 asia low to a 4146.98 session low as yields and oil pressured gold. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled near the 38.2% retrace, and price is compressing between the 4157.5 range low and the 4166.5 range high just under EMA20.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.14, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 range high and the 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high trendline, exposing the 4173.14 lower high
Failure to hold the 4157.5 range low reopens the 4150.70 asia low and the 4146.98 session low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after NY close · RSI 48 · price 4,160.93
NY lower highs off 4189.57; sweep of Asian low, now coiling 4157.5–4166.5.
Gold gave back the Asian rally to the 4200.49 asian high and printed lower highs through NY as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%. The move dipped under the Asian low at 4150.70 to a 4146.98 day low before snapping back. Post-NY, price is coiling between the 4157.5 late low and the 4166.5 bounce high, below the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.14, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 bounce high and descending trendline opens the 4173 lower high / 50% fib
Failure to hold the 4157.5 late low exposes the 4147 day low; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
Only a reclaim of the 4200.49 asian high would undo the day's lower-high sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling below the 4166 bounce high · RSI 54 · price 4,160.93
NY lower low at 4146.98 then a 45% retrace; higher low at 4157.50 into the late session.
The Asia session ran from 4150.70 to a 4200.49 day high and stalled there. After a 4180–4194 London range, NY selling broke the london low and took out the asian low to a 4146.98 ny low as 10y yields pushed to 5.22%. The rebound capped at the 4166.51 bounce high, a 45% retrace of the NY selloff, and a higher low at 4157.50 has price coiling just under EMA20 late in the session.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,179.74, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Close above the 4166.51 bounce high opens a retest of the 4179.74 london low
Failure to hold the 4157.50 higher low exposes the 4150.70 asian low and 4146.98 ny low
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core 0.2% m/m is the swing number
21:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after a sweep of the Asia low · RSI 45 · price 4,160.93
Lower highs from 4200.49; post-NY coil at 4157.50–4166.50.
Gold ran from the 4150.70 asia low to a 4200.49 rejection under $4,200. The NY session then unwound the whole move as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%, and a false break under the asia low printed a 4146.98 session low. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 4166.50 bounce high, under the 38.2% fib and the lower-high trendline, and price is coiling above the 4157.50 ny lows into the rollover with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.50
What it said to watch
A close above the 4166.50 bounce high and the lower-high trendline opens the fib 50% at 4173.50
Loss of the 4157.50 ny lows exposes the asia low at 4150.70; a close below the 4146.98 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4200, Asian low swept in NY, bounce capped below 50% fib.
Gold was rejected at 4200 in the Asia session and again near 4189 at the NY open. The NY sell-off swept the 4150.70 asian low to a 4146.98 ny low as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4166.51 bounce high, inside the 38.2–50% fib of the NY sell-off, and price is now drifting back to the 4157.50 late low with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.51 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4179.74 london low
Failure to hold the 4157.50 late low puts the 4150.70 asian low and the 4146.98 ny low back in play
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a core print away from 0.2% m/m is the swing factor
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 46 · price 4,158.85
Post-NY drift inside 4147–4166 after failed bounce.
Gold was rejected near 4200 in Asia, held the 4180s through London, then broke lower in NY as 10y yields climbed to 5.22%, printing the 4146.98 ny low. The 18:00 UTC bounce capped at 4166.5, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY leg, and late-session price is sliding back toward the 4150.70 asian low under a lower-high trendline.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.14, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4146.98 ny low extends the lower-low chain beyond the 4150.70 asian low
Close above the 4166.5 bounce cap and lower-high trendline reopens 4173.14, then the 4179.74 london low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC lands first
Lower highs from 4200 Asia high; NY low 4146.98, tight 4157–4166 box.
Asia ran from the 4150.70 Asia low to a 4200.49 Asia high, where it met rejection at the $4,200 cap. London held a 4180–4194 range. NY then printed lower highs and sold to a 4146.98 NY low as the 10y climbed back to 5.223% and WTI topped $94. The late-NY bounce is boxed between the 4157.49 bounce low and the 4166.51 bounce high, just under the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) flat near 49 into the session close.
Support: 4,157.49, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.51, 4,173.74, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.51 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens the 50% fib at 4173.74 and the lower-high trendline near 4180
Loss of the 4157.49 bounce low puts the 4150.70 Asia low and 4146.98 NY low back in play
Close below the 4146.98 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the $4,140 area
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing after a low sweep · RSI 55 · price 4,163.73
Lower highs off 4200.49; tight 4161–4166 range above the NY low.
Asia ran to 4200.49 and London faded into a 4180–4194 range. NY broke lower from 13:00 UTC as the 10y climbed back to 5.22%, sweeping the 4150.70 Asian low to 4146.98 before a sharp rebound. Late NY has compressed in a 4161–4166 range just under the 38.2% fib of the 4200–4147 drop, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 4,157.50, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.50, 4,173.10, 4,179.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166.5 range top and 38.2% fib opens the 4173 breakdown point, then the 4180 London low
Loss of the 4157.5 bounce base exposes the 4150.70 Asian low; a close below the 4146.98 NY low voids the sweep read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16.5h) is the main event risk, with Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand
NY lower-high chain from 4189.6; Asian low swept, then a higher-low base forming near the 38.2% retrace.
The NY sell-off from the 4189.6 NY high followed the 10y yield climbing back to 5.223% and WTI topping $94. It swept the 4150.7 Asian low to a 4146.98 session low before a sharp reversal bar. Late NY price is holding a 4161.8 higher low just above the 38.2% retrace, but it remains capped at the 4166.2 bounce high.
Support: 4,161.80, 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,166.18, 4,173.14, 4,189.57
What it said to watch
Close above the 4166.2 bounce high exposes the 4173.1 lower high near the 61.8% retrace of the NY sell-off
Loss of the 4161.8 higher low reopens the Asian low at 4150.7 and the 4147 session low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17h) and Bowman 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, late-NY rebound off the session low · RSI 47 · price 4,164.22
Lower highs from the 4189.57 NY high; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
NY broke the London range lower from the 4189.57 NY high as the 10y yield climbed back to 5.223% and WTI topped $94. The decline swept the 4150.70 Asian low to a 4146.98 NY low, and a sharp rebound broke the NY downtrend line. Late-NY price sits at the 38.2% retracement near 4164, below the 4173.14 swing high.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,189.57, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4173.14 swing high (61.8% of the NY decline) breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4189.57 NY high
A slip back below the 4150.70 Asian low turns the sweep into a lower-low, with the 4146.98 NY low next
4200.49 session high lines up with the $4,200 cap flagged in the digest
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~17.5h) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4189.57; asian low swept and reclaimed.
NY session sold from the ny high at 4189.57 in a chain of lower highs as 10y yields pushed to 5.22%. Price broke the asian low at 4150.70 and swept to a session low of 4146.98 late in NY. The bounce that followed cleared the lower-highs trendline but stalled at the 38.2% fib of the NY drop near 4163, with price pinned just under EMA20 around 4162.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,173.14, 4,189.57
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 4150.70 turns the reclaim into a false break and reopens the session low at 4146.98
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 4163 exposes the lower high at 4173.14 (61.8% retracement); only a close above the ny high at 4189.57 breaks the lower-high sequence
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through NY, Asian low swept then reclaimed.
Late NY session: gold has stepped lower from the 4189 high and the 4173 lower high, dipping under the 4150.70 asian low to a 4146.98 session low before an 18:00 UTC spike to 4163.07 broke the NY trendline. Price is holding just below EMA20 near the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) ~42. The sweep low sits at the $4,140-4,150 intraday support flagged in the macro read, where dips have been absorbed this week.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,146.98
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,167.42, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4150.70 asian low, then the 4146.98 session low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 4163.07 spike high and the fib 38.2 at 4167.4 confirms the NY trendline break
Lower high at 4173.14 is the level that would flip the intraday read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late NY · RSI 29 · price 4,149.57
Lower highs since 4190 London range; Asian range low broken.
NY session unwound the entire Asian rally. A chain of lower highs from the 4190 London range has taken price through the Asian low at 4150.70 to a session low at 4146.98, with RSI(14) near 29. Rebuilding yields into Wednesday's CPI are the backdrop, and price is now inside the 4140–4150 intraday support zone flagged in the macro read.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,150.70, 4,157.91, 4,173.14
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150.70 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 4146.98 session low exposes the 4140 psych level
Close above the 4157.91 swing high breaks the NY lower-high chain; the 4173.14 lower high caps the 50% retrace of the NY decline
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, plus Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 4,154.45
Full retrace of the Asian rally, retesting the Asian low.
Late NY: gold has given back the entire Asian rally to the 4200.49 session high. NY has stacked lower highs under a descending line from 4189.57 as yields rebuilt, and is now retesting the asian low around 4150.30–4150.70. The first bounce stalled below 4158, and RSI(14) is near 31, approaching oversold rather than stretched.
Support: 4,150.30, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,160.60, 4,173.14, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 4150.30 opens the 4140 floor flagged as intraday support
An M15 close above the 4160.6 lower high and the NY downtrend line breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery toward the 4173.14 NY swing high, inside the 38.2–50% fib zone, is where supply capped the first NY bounce
The 4180 london low marks the 61.8% fib area and the base of the earlier London range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~19h) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 4,154.81
Lower-high/lower-low chain since NY open; retesting the day low.
The NY session erased the full Asian rally from 4150.70 to 4200.49. It broke the 4179.74 London low and stepped down in lower highs as Treasury yields recovered. Price is now retesting the day low at 4150.30, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 4164.67 lower high capping the structure.
Support: 4,150.30, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,164.67, 4,173.14, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150.30 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4140 range floor
Reclaim of the 4164.67 lower high breaks the NY sequence; 4173.14 ny bounce is the next cap, then the 4179.74 london low near the 61.8% of the Asian rally
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor, but US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late NY session: gold has unwound the whole Asia rally to 4200.49, printing lower highs since the NY open as Treasury yields recovered. Price dipped to 4150.30, just under the Asia low, and the bar closed back at 4157. RSI(14) sits near 32 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,150.30, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,165.80, 4,173.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150.30 Asia low confirms a lower-low and puts the 4140 range floor in view
Recovery above the 4165.8 fib 38.2 and the 4173.1 swing high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is minor; Wed 12:30 UTC CPI is the main risk to this read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the NY session · RSI 27 · price 4,151.43
London range broken lower at NY open; lower-high chain now probing the Asian low.
Gold has fully unwound the Asia-session rally to 4200. Price broke below the 4180–4194 London range in the first hour of NY and has stepped lower in a lower-high chain from the 4189.6 NY high as Treasury yields recovered. Late NY trade is now probing the 4150.7 Asian low that marked the overnight base, with RSI(14) near 27, soft but not at an extreme.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,160.60, 4,173.10, 4,189.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4160.6 breakdown level breaks the lower-high chain; a move through the 4173.1 lower high would neutralise the NY leg
Sustained trade below the 4150.7 Asian low exposes the 4140 range floor cited in the recent range
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Lower highs since NY open rejection; compressing above NY low.
NY session was rejected near 4190 at 13:30 UTC as Treasury yields recovered. Price has since unwound most of the Asian rally down to the 4155 NY low, with a chain of lower highs capping each bounce. It is now compressing in a 4155–4161 band with the 4150.70 Asian low below. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,155.06, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,168.50, 4,173.14, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.5 fib 38.2 and the NY lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence; the 4173 lower high sits above
Failure to hold the 4155 NY low exposes the 4150.70 Asian low and the digest's $4,140 range floor
Reclaim of the 4180 London low needed to return price to the London-session range
US yields remain the intraday swing factor; Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is minor, US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
NY lower-high chain after London range break lower.
Gold was rejected twice near 4189 early in NY and broke below the 4179.74 London low as Treasury yields recovered. A lower-high chain off the 4173.14 swing high has since carried price to a 4155.06 session low. RSI(14) is near 31, and late in NY price sits just above the 4150.70 Asian low.
Support: 4,155.06, 4,150.70, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,160.60, 4,173.14, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.60 lower high and NY trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4150.70 Asian low exposes the 4140 range floor
Recovery of the 4173.14 swing high and 4179.74 London low would neutralise the downtrend read
Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Wed 12:30 UTC CPI is the larger risk to this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 34 · price 4,160.00
NY lower-high/lower-low chain; full Asian rally nearly retraced.
The Asian session rallied from the 4150.70 asian low to the 4200.49 asian high, and London held a 4180–4193 range. NY rejected 4189 at the open, then sold off in a lower-high chain as Treasury yields recovered. After the London close, price sits near 4160 at the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally, just above the 4155.06 session low. RSI(14) is 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,155.06, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,179.74, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
A break of the 4155.06 session low exposes the 4150.70 asian low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
An M15 close above the 4173.14 lower high breaks the NY downtrend line
A recovery through the 4179.74 london low puts price back inside the London range, with the 4200.49 asian high as the cap
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for this read
Lower-high chain after NY broke the London range low.
Gold faded from the 4190.78 NY high as Treasury yields recovered. The move broke the 4179.74 London low and has printed a lower-high chain since, capped at 4173.14. Price is late in the NY session, pressing the 4156.92 session low just above the 4150.70 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,156.92, 4,150.70, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,179.74, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4150.70 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4140 range floor
An M15 close above the 4173.14 lower high breaks the trendline and puts the 4179.74 London low back in play
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and intraday Treasury yield moves ahead of Wednesday's 12:30 UTC CPI could shift this read
15:48 UTC
Downtrend through NY session, RSI near 30 · RSI 29 · price 4,159.65
London range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC high.
Gold was rejected at 4190 in the first hour of NY. It then broke the London low at 4179.74 and printed lower highs at 4189.6 and 4173.1 as Treasury yields recovered. Price is pressing the 4159 session low, just through the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally from 4150.70 to 4200.49, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,159.43, 4,150.70, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,179.74, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
A close below the 4150.70 asian low erases the full Asian rally and puts the 4140 range floor in focus
An M15 close above the 4173.14 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 4179.74 london low returns price to the prior London range
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 32 · price 4,163.44
London range floor at 4180 broken; LH/LL sequence since the NY open.
Gold gave back the Asian rally from 4150.70 to 4200.49 as Treasury yields recovered. The NY spike to 4189.57 was rejected and price broke the London low near 4180. A lower high at 4173.14 followed, and price is now pressing the 4159.72 session low around the 78.6% fib, with RSI(14) at about 32, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,159.72, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,179.74, 4,189.57
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the 4159.72 session low exposes the 4150.70 asian low, the base of today's rally
An M15 close above the 4173.14 lower high breaks the descending line and neutralises the NY lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 4179.74 london low puts price back inside the London range, with the 4189.57 ny high above
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and intraday Treasury yield moves could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 34 · price 4,165.26
London range low broken in NY; lower-high, lower-low chain from 4190.78.
NY broke below the London low at 4179.74 as Treasury yields recovered. The 13:30 UTC spike to 4189 was rejected. Price now sits on the NY low at 4162.83, near the 78.6% retracement of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 34 and NY lower highs capping at 4173.14.
Support: 4,162.83, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,173.14, 4,179.74, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 4162.83 extends the lower-low chain toward the asia low at 4150.70
Reclaim of the 4173.14 lower high breaks the NY lower highs sequence
Recovery above the london low at 4179.74 negates the range break; the ny high at 4190.78 caps above
Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is low-tier; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London range broken lower in NY, coiling above session low.
NY session broke the 4180–4194 London range lower. A spike back to 4189.57 was rejected below the ny high at 4190.78, and price slid to a session low at 4162.83 as Treasury yields recovered. Late NY is now compressing just above that low with RSI(14) near 34, while lower highs from the 4200.49 Asian high frame the move.
Support: 4,162.83, 4,158.84, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,172.82, 4,179.74, 4,190.78
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4162.83 session low exposes the 4158.84 prior low and the 4150.70 asian low
Reclaim of the 4172.82 broken low, near the 38.2% fib of the 4200–4163 drop, would ease the downside read
M15 close back above the 4179.74 london low invalidates the range break
Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
London range broken lower in NY, price holding the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally.
The NY session high at 4189.57 was rejected and price broke below the London low at 4179.74 to print a NY low at 4162.83. Price now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally from the 4150.70 Asian low to the 4200.49 session high. Lower highs since 4200, RSI(14) near 39, and gold stays capped below $4,200 into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,162.83, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,179.74, 4,189.57, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4162.83 NY low exposes the 4150.70 Asian low and the full Asia-rally retrace
M15 close back above the 4179.74 London low returns price to the London range and weakens the range-break read
A break above the lower-highs line near 4189.57 (ny high) invalidates the intraday downtrend
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~22h), core f/c 0.2% m/m, is the likely trigger for a break of the 4150–4200 band
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the 4200 cap · RSI 36 · price 4,168.55
London range broken lower in NY, lower highs since 4190.78.
The Asian rally from the asian low at 4150.70 was rejected at the asian high of 4200.49, the $4,200 cap in the digest, and London held a 4180–4194 range. Early in the NY session price set lower highs from the ny high at 4190.78, broke the london low at 4179.74 and slid to a ny low of 4162.83, near the 78.6% of the Asian leg. Price now sits around the 61.8% at ~4169 with RSI(14) near 36, as yields and USD hold steady ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,162.83, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,179.74, 4,190.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 4179.74 negates the NY range break
Failure to hold the ny low at 4162.83 exposes the asian low at 4150.70 and the 4140–4150 support band
Lower highs from the asian high 4200.49 and the ny high 4190.78 stay intact unless 4190.78 is reclaimed
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~22h), core f/c 0.2% m/m, could materially shift this read
London range (4180–4190) broken lower in first hour of NY; Asian rally retraced past 61.8%.
Gold was rejected at the 4190 range top around the NY open and broke the London low near 4180. The drop retraced beyond the 61.8% fib of the Asian 4150.70–4200.49 rally to a NY low at 4165.31. RSI(14) sits near 37 with price below both EMAs, as a firm USD keeps the 4200 cap in place ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,165.31, 4,158.84, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,175.60, 4,179.74
What it said to watch
The fib 50% at 4175.60 is the first area to watch for rejection or reclaim
An M15 close back above the london low at 4179.74 negates the range break
Failure to hold the ny low at 4165.31 exposes the prior low at 4158.84 and the 78.6% fib near 4161
A break of the asian low at 4150.70 confirms a full retrace of the Asian rally
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 42 · price 4,171.49
London range broken lower in first hour of NY, testing 61.8% fib.
The Asian rally from the 4150.70 Asian low met rejection at the 4200.49 Asian high, just under the $4,200 cap, and London ranged 4180–4194 on lower highs. The first hour of NY spiked to the 4190.78 NY high, then broke the London low at 4179.74 and printed a 4168.65 NY low near the 61.8% retracement of the Asian move. RSI(14) sits near 42.
Support: 4,168.65, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,179.74, 4,190.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
A close back above the London low at 4179.74 negates the NY range break
Failure to hold the NY low at 4168.65 (61.8% fib) exposes the Asian low at 4150.70
The lower highs trendline from 4200.49 is capping; a break of the NY high at 4190.78 is needed to revisit the Asian high and the $4,200 cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast as the swing
13:47 UTC
Range after Asian rally, lower highs below 4200 · RSI 46 · price 4,179.42
Lower highs from 4200.49 high; NY whipsawing inside the Asian rally retracement.
Asia rallied from the 4150.70 asia low to a 4200.49 asia high as USD and yields eased, then stalled under the 4200 cap. London held 4180–4194 with lower highs. The first hour of NY whipsawed below the London low to a 4172.82 ny low, retook 4188, and is now pinned between the fib 38.2 (4181.47) and fib 50 (4175.60) of the Asian rally. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 4,175.60, 4,172.82, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,181.47, 4,190.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4172.82 ny low opens the 61.8% fib near 4169.70
Close above the lower highs line and 4190.78 ny high reopens the 4200.49 asia high
Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger swing risk for the 4200 cap
13:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since the Asian peak · RSI 56 · price 4,189.29
Lower highs under a trendline; NY false break below the London low reclaimed.
Gold rallied in Asia from 4150.7 to the asian high at 4200.5, helped by a softer USD and easing yields. It met rejection just under the $4,200 handle, and London then held a 4180–4194 range of lower highs under a descending trendline. Early NY dropped through the london low to the ny low at 4172.8, which held above the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally, and the move was reclaimed in one bar. That false break leaves price testing the trendline near 4189.
Support: 4,180.10, 4,172.80
Resistance: 4,193.80, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
Close above the trendline and the london high at 4193.8 opens the path to the asian high at 4200.5 and the $4,200 range top
Return below the london low at 4180.1 negates the false break and exposes the ny low at 4172.8
Loss of the ny low at 4172.8 breaks the 61.8% fib hold and points back toward the Asian base
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; until then the $4,200 handle has been capping
13:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 34 · price 4,176.78
NY open broke below the London range low; lower highs from the 4200.49 Asian high.
Asia rallied from the 4150.70 Asian low to a 4200.49 Asian high, stalling at the $4,200 range top flagged in the digest. London then ranged between the 4179.74 London low and the 4193.78 London high. NY open broke that floor, set a 4172.82 NY low, and pulled price to the 50% retrace (4175.60) of the Asia move, with RSI(14) near 34 and the lower highs line still capping.
Support: 4,172.82, 4,169.72, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,179.74, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.74 London low would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4172.82 NY low exposes the fib 61.8 retrace at 4169.72
A break of the lower highs line toward the 4193.78 London high would reopen the 4200.49 Asian high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; positioning into it may keep ranges choppy
London range broken lower at NY open, testing 50% fib.
Asia's rally from the 4150.7 asia low stalled at 4200.5 (asia high), in line with the digest's read of gold hesitating below the $4,200 range top, and London has printed lower highs in a 4179.7–4193.8 band. The first NY bars broke the london low at 4179.7 and are pressing the 50% fib of the Asia leg at 4175.6, RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 4,175.60, 4,169.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,179.70, 4,193.80, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4179.7 london low would turn the NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 4175.6 exposes the 61.8% fib at 4169.7, then the 4150.7 asia low
Close above the lower highs line and 4193.8 london high reopens the 4200.5 asia high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk and could materially shift this read; today's 14:00 UTC data is minor
Range 4179.74–4193.78 below the 4200.49 Asia high, lower highs compressing.
Asia dipped to 4150.70, then a softer USD and easing yields fuelled a rally that the 4200 cap rejected at 4200.49. London has since compressed into a 4179.74–4193.78 range with a run of lower highs, and the London low is holding near the 38.2% fib (~4181.5). RSI(14) sits at 44 and price is pinned to EMA20 at the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4193.78 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4200 cap back in play
Close below the 4179.74 london low opens the 50% fib at 4175.60
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the event that could materially shift this read; the range is compressing into it
London range 4179.7–4193.8 inside the Asian leg; higher lows pressing a descending trendline.
Gold ran from the 4150.7 Asian low to the 4200.5 Asian high as the USD and yields eased, then stalled at the $4,200 cap. It has since held a 4179.7–4193.8 London range near the 38.2% retracement of that Asian leg. Into the NY session, a higher low at 4181.6 has price pressing the descending trendline off the Asian high.
Support: 4,181.60, 4,179.70, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,193.80, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4193.8 london high breaks the range and puts the 4200.5 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 4179.7 london low opens the fib 50% retracement of the Asian leg at 4175.6
Loss of the 4181.6 higher low keeps price capped under the descending trendline
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Bowman remarks could materially shift this read; Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC is lower-tier
12:17 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 48 · price 4,185.67
Lower highs under 4200, London range 4179.7–4193.8.
Asia session rallied from the 4150.70 asian low to a 4200.49 asian high, with rejection at the 4200 round number. London has since printed lower highs inside a 4179.7–4193.8 range, the london low holding near the 38.2% fib with the fib 50% at 4175.6 below. Into the NY open, RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 and price is pinned to EMA20 as USD eases ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
A break of the lower highs line near 4189.8, then the 4193.8 london high, reopens the 4200 asian high
Failure to hold the 4179.7 london low exposes the fib 50% at 4175.6
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could jolt the range. US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the main swing factor
12:03 UTC
Pullback inside the Asian range, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 4,186.54
Lower highs since the 4200 rejection, London low holding near the 38.2% fib.
Asia ran from the 4150.70 asian low to a 4200.49 asian high as USD eased, then met rejection at the $4,200 round number. London has stayed inside that range, printing a lower high sequence (4193.78 london high, then 4189.31) while the 4179.74 london low holds near the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally, as NY opens.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Close above the 4189.31 lower high and the descending lower-highs line breaks the London pullback structure; 4193.78 london high and the 4200.49 asian high sit above
Failure to hold the 4179.74 london low exposes the 50% fib at 4175.6
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could set the session range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk for a break of the 4150.70–4200.49 asian range
11:47 UTC
Range after Asian rally, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 4,187.22
London range 4179.74–4193.78 below $4,200 rejection.
The Asian rally ran from the 4150.70 asian low to the 4200.49 asian high as USD eased on softer yields and oil, then met rejection just under the $4,200 round number. London has held a 4179.74–4193.78 range with lower highs; late in London, price is pressing the descending trendline from the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4189.31 lower high clears the descending trendline and reopens the 4193.78 london high
A break of the 4179.74 london low exposes the 4175.60 fib 50% of the asian rally, then the 4150.70 asian low
Acceptance above the 4200.49 asian high would clear the round number that has capped the two-week range
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could expand the range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
11:32 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 46 · price 4,183.98
London range 4180–4194 inside Asian range, compressing.
Asia swept Monday's 4154.71 low to the 4150.70 asia low, then rallied about $50 as USD eased off its highs. The rally was rejected at the 4200.49 asia high, just above the $4,200 round number. Late in the London session, price is drifting in a 4180–4194 range with a lower high at 4189.31, holding the london low and the 38.2% fib near 4181 above the 50% fib at 4175.60.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.74 london low exposes the 50% fib at 4175.60
Break of the lower highs line and the 4193.78 london high reopens the 4200.49 asia high / $4,200 cap
Loss of 4175.60 points back toward the 4150.70 asia low
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could set the session's direction; US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the main event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, holding the 38.2% fib.
Asia rallied from 4150.70 to an Asian high of 4200.49 on softer USD and yields before the 4200 round number rejected it. Mid-London, price is drifting under a falling trendline. Lower highs at 4193.78 (london high) and 4189.31 are capping it, and the 38.2% fib near 4181 and the london low at 4179.74 are holding. RSI(14) is neutral around 48.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.74 london low extends the pullback toward the 50% fib at 4175.60
Close above the falling trendline and the 4189.31 lower high brings the 4193.78 london high and 4200.49 asian high back into view
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could break the current London range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to the 4200 cap
11:04 UTC
Pullback inside Asia rally, London fading · RSI 43 · price 4,181.06
Lower highs since 4193.67, pressing London low.
Asia ran from 4150.70 to an asian high of 4200.49 as USD and yields eased, then stalled at the 4,200 range top. London has printed descending highs off the 4193.67 london high and is pressing the 4179.74 london low at the 38.2% retracement, RSI(14) near 43 with price sitting on EMA50. Fib 50% at 4175.60 is the next reference below.
Support: 4,179.74, 4,175.60, 4,169.72
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.67, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4179.74 london low exposes fib 50% at 4175.60 and fib 61.8% at 4169.72
Close back above the 4189.31 lower high breaks the descending highs sequence; the 4193.67 london high sits above it
4200.49 asian high remains the cap; a clean break would mark a range break
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC in the first hour of NY could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for the 4,100-4,200 range
London lower highs from 4193.70, pressing session low.
Asia ran from 4150.70 to the 4200.50 Asia high as USD and yields eased, then met rejection at the $4,200 range top. Mid-London, price has printed lower highs under a descending trendline and is pressing the 4180.10 session low, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally. RSI(14) sits near 40, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,180.10, 4,175.60, 4,169.70
Resistance: 4,189.30, 4,193.70, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
A close below the 4180.10 session low opens the 50% fib at 4175.60, then the 61.8% fib near 4169.70.
Reclaiming the 4189.30 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 4193.70 London high back in play.
A push through the 4200.50 Asia high would break the $4,200 range top.
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift the read. US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the main risk.
10:32 UTC
Pullback inside Asia range after rally stalled at 4200 · RSI 40 · price 4,182.68
Lower highs from 4200.49 session high, London low under test.
Asia session carried gold from the 4150.70 Asia low to a rejection at the 4200.50 session high as USD and yields eased, with the $4,200 range top capping again. London has traded a 4180.70–4193.70 band under a lower-high trendline, and price is now pressing the London low near the 38.2% retrace with RSI(14) near 40, below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 4,180.70, 4,175.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.30, 4,193.70, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4180.70 london low exposes the 4175.70 swing low at the 50% retrace
Close above the 4189.30 lower high and the 4193.70 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 4200.50 session high
Loss of 4175.70 puts the 4150.70 asia low back in view
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could break the London range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
10:17 UTC
Asian rally stalled, drifting lower in London · RSI 43 · price 4,184.09
Lower highs from 4200.49, holding 38.2% of Asian leg.
Gold rallied about $50 from the 4150.70 Asian low to a 4200.49 session high as yields and the USD eased, then saw rejection at the $4,200 range top. Mid-London it is in consolidation between the 4180.90 london low and the 4193.78 london high, with a lower high at 4189.31 and the 38.2% retracement near 4181 so far holding. Price sits under EMA20 and just above EMA50, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 4,180.90, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,189.31, 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4180.90 london low exposes the 50% fib at 4175.60
Close above the descending trendline and the 4193.78 london high puts the 4200.49 session high back in play
Loss of 4175.60 would leave the 4150.70 asian low as the next reference
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC could add volatility during the first hour of NY
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the $4,200 range top
London range 4180.90–4193.80 under the 4200 session high, lows edging lower.
The Asia session rally from the 4150.70 swing low stalled with a rejection at the 4200.49 session high as yields and the USD eased. London has since ranged between the 4180.90 london low and the 4193.80 london high, with the lows edging lower. Price sits just above the 38.2% fib near 4181, below EMA20, and RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 4,180.90, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,193.80, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4180.90 london low extends the pullback toward the fib 50% at 4175.60, which lines up with the early-Asia pivot
A close above the 4193.80 london high reopens the 4200.49 session high and the range top
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC lands around the NY open and could break the London range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 4200 range top
09:47 UTC
Asia rally stalled, drifting lower in London · RSI 46 · price 4,184.61
Lower highs under 4200, testing the London low shelf.
The Asia-session rally from the 4150.70 Asian low met rejection at the 4200.49 session high, just under the $4,200 range top, as the USD pulled back from its highs. London has printed lower highs near the 4193.7 London high and is now probing the 4180.90 London low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is around 46 and price sits below EMA20 as the market consolidates ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,180.90, 4,175.60, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,193.70, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4180.90 London low opens the fib 50% at 4175.6, with the 4150.70 Asian low below
Close above the 4193.7 London high puts the 4200.49 session high and $4,200 range top back in play
ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC) is second-tier; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main range-break risk
09:34 UTC
Pullback within Asian rally, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 4,181.53
Lower highs since 4200.49 rejection, London low 4183.5 giving way.
Asia swept Monday's low to 4150.70, then ran to the 4200 cap at 4200.49, where supply has capped gold all week as the USD sits near 18-month highs into Wednesday's CPI. London has printed lower highs under 4193.7, and price is now slipping below the 4183.5 London low into the 38.2% fib at 4181.5, at the round number and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,175.60, 4,169.70
Resistance: 4,183.50, 4,193.70, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4180 round number exposes the fib 50% at 4175.6, then fib 61.8% at 4169.7
Reclaim of the 4183.5 london low and a close above the 4193.7 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Asian high at 4200.5 remains the session ceiling; a close above it invalidates the rejection read
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is second-tier; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk to this structure
London range 4183.5–4193.8 with lower highs under the Asian high.
The Asia-session rally from 4150.70 ran into rejection at the 4200.49 Asian high as the USD paused, and the move sits at the 4200 round number that has capped the range. London has compressed into a 4183.5–4193.8 range with lower highs. Price is below EMA20 but holding above the 38.2% fib near 4181.5, RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 4,183.50, 4,181.50, 4,180.10
Resistance: 4,193.80, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4183.5 london low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4181.5 and the monday high at 4180.1
Close above the 4193.8 london high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4200.5 asian high
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC is second-tier; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main range-break risk
09:05 UTC
Asia rally stalled, sideways under 4200 · RSI 46 · price 4,186.36
Tight range 4183.5–4194 with lower highs below the 4200.49 session high.
Asia ran roughly $50 off the 4150.70 low as the USD took profits, then printed a rejection at the 4200.49 session high. Since then price has compressed into a 4183.5–4194 range through the first hours of London, with highs stepping lower. The pullback is holding above the 38.2% fib near 4181.5 and the 4180 prior high.
Support: 4,183.50, 4,180.10, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.50, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4183.5 range low exposes the 4180 prior high and the fib 50% at 4175.6
M15 close above the 4194 range high and the lower-highs line reopens the 4200.5 session high
Acceptance above 4200 brings Monday's high at 4217 into view
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is second-tier. US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this range read.
Tight London range inside the Asian advance, lower highs below 4200.
Asia defended the 4150.70 low, and dip-buying on a softer USD lifted gold to a 4200.50 session high, where the $4,200 range top capped again. London is holding a 4183.50–4194 band, with the london low above the 38.2% fib and a lower high at 4194; RSI(14) ~58 is neutral, with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,183.50, 4,175.70
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.50, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4183.50 london low exposes the 4175.70 asia pivot near the 50% fib
Close above the 4194 lower high reopens a test of the 4200.50 session high; acceptance above it puts the 4217 monday high in view
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could break the 4183.50–4200.50 box
Gold climbed in Asia from the 4150.70 asia low, with the $4,150 area defended as the USD eased, to a 4200.49 asia high. It met rejection at the 4200 psych level and has pulled back about 34% into early London without breaking the 38.2% fib at 4181.5. London is compressing between the 4183.5 london low and the 4193.8 london high, with lower highs printing since 05:15 UTC and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 4,183.51, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,193.78, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4193.8 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 4200.5 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 4183.5 london low takes price through the 38.2% fib and opens a deeper retrace of the Asian rally toward the 4150.7 asia low
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and the NY open could resolve the compression; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger event risk
Lower highs off the 4200.49 Asian high, London holding a 4183.5–4193.8 range.
Dip demand defended the 4150.70 low early in the Asia session and gold rallied about $50 to an Asian high at 4200.49 as the USD eased off its 18-month high, but met rejection at the 4200 round number. Early London is consolidating inside a 4183.5 london low to 4193.8 london high band, with lower highs printing, price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,183.50, 4,181.47, 4,175.70
Resistance: 4,193.80, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4193.8 london high and the lower-highs line reopens the 4200.49 asian high
Break of the 4183.5 london low exposes the 4181.47 fib 38.2 and the 4175.7 swing low
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC during the NY session could shift the intraday read; Wednesday's CPI remains the larger catalyst
Lower highs from 4200.49, consolidation 4183.5–4194.
Dip-buyers defended the 4150.70 asian low after Monday's oil- and Fed-driven slide, then lifted gold to the 4200.49 asian high before a rejection at the $4,200 range top. Early London is compressing between the 4183.50 london low and the 4194 lower high, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,183.50, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4183.50 london low exposes the fib 50% at 4175.50, where prior Asia highs sit
M15 close above the 4194 lower high, then the 4200.50 asian high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC, now) and ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC could break the London band
Loss of the 4175.50 fib 50% puts the 4150.70 asian low back in view
Asian V-recovery to a higher high, higher low held, now compressing in early London.
Asia defended the 4150.70 asian low and rallied about $50 into a rejection at the 4200 round number as the USD eased off its highs. The pullback set a higher low at 4184.05, just above the 38.2% fib. Early London is compressing between that low and the 4193.78 london high under a short run of lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,184.05, 4,181.47, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,193.78, 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, inside the first hour of London, could break the 4184–4194 compression
M15 close above the 4193.78 london high and the lower highs line reopens the 4200.49 round number, with the 4217 monday high above it
Failure to hold the 4184.05 higher low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4181.47 and the 50% near 4175.6
Wednesday's US CPI is the main range catalyst; ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is a nearer NY-session risk
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, pausing below 4200 · RSI 54 · price 4,190.03
Higher low at 4184 after rejection at Asian high; London open inside 4184–4194.
Asia swept Monday's 4154.71 low to a 4150.70 Asian low, then rallied about $50 to a 4200.49 Asian high, where supply capped the move at the round number. The pullback held 4184.05, above the 38.2 fib of the Asia rally. London open is now rotating between that pullback low and a 4193.74 London high ahead of Waller at 07:45 UTC.
Support: 4,184.05, 4,181.47, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,193.74, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average follows at 12:15 UTC
M15 close below the 4184.05 pullback low exposes the 38.2 fib at 4181.5 and trendline support from the Asian low
Acceptance above the 4200.49 Asian high invalidates the rejection read at the $4,200 range top
Repeated failure at the 4193.74 London high keeps price in a 4184–4194 session range
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, shallow pullback holding.
Asia briefly dipped under Monday's 4154.71 low to an Asian low of 4150.70. Dip-buyers defended the $4,150 area as the USD took modest profits, and price ran roughly $50 to a session high of 4200.49, where the 4200 psych level produced a rejection. The pullback held a higher low at 4184.05, about a 33% retrace of the Asian rally, and price is back at 4192 into the London open.
Support: 4,184.05, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read early in London
M15 close above the 4200.49 session high opens the path to the 4217 Monday high
Failure to hold the 4184.05 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the higher-lows trendline, exposing the 4170s
Loss of 4150.70 would turn the Asian low sweep into a range break lower
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is the next scheduled risk in NY hours
V-recovery from 4150.70 rejected at 4200, shallow pullback above fib 38.2%.
Asia swept Monday's 4154 lows to 4150.70 and rallied about $50 into a 4200.49 session high as the USD took profits, but the round number rejected price. Lower highs near 4194 since then, with the pullback low at 4184.05 holding just above the 38.2% of the Asia rally and EMA20 into the London open.
Support: 4,184.05, 4,175.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4184.05 pullback low exposes the fib 50% at 4175.7, where the Asia-session lows clustered
Close above the 4194 lower high and acceptance over the 4200.49 session high reopens Monday's 4217 high
Loss of 4175.7 puts the 4150.70 asian low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read in early London
Wed 12:30 UTC US CPI is the range-break catalyst; pre-positioning may compress ranges
06:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, now pulling back · RSI 57 · price 4,186.37
HH/HL rally capped at 4200, first lower high at 4194.
Asia swept Monday's 4154.71 low to 4150.70, then recovered about $50 as the USD took profits. The rally stalled at the 4200.49 session high, the $4,200 range top that also capped Monday. Price is now easing into the London open, holding just above the EMA20 near 4185, with the 38.2% fib at 4181 and the prior range top near 4175.60 (the 50% fib) below.
Support: 4,184.23, 4,181.47, 4,175.60
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of NY
Failure to hold the 4184.23 pullback low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 38.2% fib, then the prior range top at 4175.60
Rejection at the 4194 lower high keeps the 4200 cap intact; a close above the 4200.49 session high clears it
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk into Wednesday's CPI
HH/HL chain off 4150.70 asian low, first lower highs below 4200.49.
Asia rallied from the 4150.70 asian low, where dip-buyers defended 4150, to a 4200.49 asian high. That cleared Monday's 4192.8 session high before a rejection at the 4200 round number and two lower highs. With London open 45 minutes out, price is sitting on the rally trendline just above the 4189.25 pullback low, near the 23.6% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 4,189.25, 4,178.08, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4189.25 pullback low breaks the rally trendline and exposes the 4178.08 swing low near the 38.2% Asia rally fib (4181)
Acceptance above the 4194 lower high and 4200.49 asian high reopens the 4217 monday high and the range top
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the range-break catalyst
Loss of 4178.08 puts the 4150.70 asian low back in focus
06:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling under 4200 · RSI 62 · price 4,193.22
HH/HL chain from 4150.70; first lower high after rejection at the session high.
Dip-buyers defended the 4150.70 asian low as the USD took profits. Price then broke Monday's 4175.5 range top and ran to a 4200.49 session high before rejecting at the round number. The pullback low at 4189.25 is holding into the late Asia session. RSI(14) has cooled to about 62.
Support: 4,189.25, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4200.49 session high reopens the path to the 4217 monday high
Loss of the 4189.25 pullback low breaks the HL chain and exposes the asia rally tl, then the 4175.5 range top (near the 50% fib)
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around the London open, could materially shift this read
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and positioning into Wednesday's CPI could widen ranges in the NY session
Asian HH/HL chain off 4150.70, shallow pullback from session high.
Asia held the 4150.70 Asian low and printed a HH/HL chain up to a 4200.49 session high. That move retraced all of Monday's London-NY slide, consistent with the digest's read of dip demand at $4,150 as the USD took profits. The 4200 round number capped the move, and the last three bars eased to 4190 with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s to about 58 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,189.25, 4,178.08, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4200.49 session high opens Monday's high at 4217 into London open
A break below the 4189.25 pullback low exposes the 4178.08 higher low and the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally near 4181
Losing the 4178.08 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain; the Asian low at 4150.70 is the structural floor
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read, with US CPI due Wed 12:30 UTC
05:33 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 4200 · RSI 76 · price 4,195.00
Asia V-recovery from 4150.70, HH/HL chain capped at session high.
Asia defended the 4150.70 asian low and rallied about $50 through Monday's 4160–4175 NY range top. The rally faded on the first test of the 4200 round number, and the 05:15 UTC bar printed a 4200.5 session high before slipping back toward the 4194.0 pullback low. RSI(14) near 76 is stretched ahead of London open as the USD takes profits from its 18-month high.
Support: 4,194.00, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.50, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4194.0 pullback low leaves a rejection at the 4200 session high and opens the 50% retrace of the Asian rally fib near the 4175.5 NY range top
Acceptance above 4200.5 exposes the 4217 Monday high, the prior failure point
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read
Loss of the NY range top at 4175.5 would put the 4150.7 Asian low back in play
05:17 UTC
Uptrend off Asian low, momentum fading under 4200 · RSI 76 · price 4,197.59
HH/HL chain since 4150.70, stalling at round number.
In the Asia session gold undercut Monday's 4154.71 low at the 4150.70 asian low, then reversed in a steady HH/HL climb as the USD eased off its highs. That carried price through the ny highs near 4175.5 and up to 4199.62. RSI(14) sits near 76 and bar ranges are compressing just under the 4200 round number, which is the top of the two-week range, with the 38.2% fib at 4181 matching the breakout swing high.
Support: 4,181.00, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4200 round number opens Monday high 4217
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 4181 breaks the HL chain and exposes the ny highs at 4175.5
Asia trendline from 4150.70 breaking would end the intraday uptrend read
Return below 4150.70 asian low invalidates the double bottom
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early London, could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC
05:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing into 4200 range top · RSI 74 · price 4,196.07
V-recovery off Asia low, clean HH/HL chain.
Asia dipped through Monday's 4154.71 NY low to the 4150.70 asia low and reversed into a steady HH/HL chain, matching the digest's dip-buying near $4,150 as USD took profits off its YTD high. Price has now recovered the full Monday slide to sit just under the 4201.26 prior high at the $4,200 range top. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 4,187.33, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,201.26, 4,217.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.26 prior high clears the range top and opens Monday high at 4217
Rejection at 4200 plus a break of the 4187.33 micro low ends the HH/HL chain, exposing the 4175.5 ny range top near the 38.2% fib
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read
Failure back below the 4150.70 asia low negates the rebound
04:47 UTC
Sharp intraday uptrend, extended into range top · RSI 74 · price 4,193.66
Asia sweep of Monday low then V-reversal; HH/HL chain into 4195.
Asia swept Monday's London low at 4154.71 to a 4150.70 session low, then V-reversed ~$44 as USD took profit, clearing the Monday NY high near 4175 and pressing the 4195 session high just under the 4200 range top. RSI(14) ~74 with higher lows holding along the rally trendline; London open is about 2h out.
Support: 4,178.10, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,195.04, 4,200.00, 4,204.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4200 range top exposes the Monday Asia high at 4204.41
Break of the rally trendline and the 4178 fib 38.2 points to a deeper retrace toward the 4175 Monday NY high
Return below the 4150.70 session low negates the sweep-and-reversal read
Waller speaks 07:45 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend after Asia sweep · RSI 67 · price 4,190.74
Sweep of Monday low, V-reversal, higher lows into session high.
Late Asia session: price swept Monday's 4154.71 low to a 4150.70 sweep low, then reversed about $42 through the Monday NY high near 4175.5. The breakout stalled at a 4193.24 session high just under the 4200 range top, which capped gold on Monday. The USD eased slightly in Asia after Monday's oil-driven rally, which lines up with the bounce; RSI(14) sits near 67, warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,193.24, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4200 range top keeps the Asian move inside the broader $4,100–4,200 range
M15 close back below the 4183 breakout level (23.6% of the Asia rally fib) points to a deeper retrace toward the Monday NY high at 4175.5
Loss of the 4150.70 sweep low would resume Monday's decline
London open and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 4150.7 sweep low, testing Monday London pivot.
Early Asia swept Monday's 4154.7 NY low to 4150.7, then reversed about $40 as USD eased slightly. The rally reclaimed the asia high at 4175.5, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the sweep rally, and is now pressing the 4192.8 prior high from Monday's London open. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, and the 4182.6 pullback low is the nearest intraday pivot.
Support: 4,182.60, 4,175.50, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,192.80, 4,200.00, 4,208.30
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4192.8 prior high keeps this a retracement inside Monday's 4150–4208 range
M15 close above the 4200 round number exposes the monday high at 4208.3
Loss of the 4182.6 pullback low and the 4175.5 asia high would undercut the false break read; 4150.7 sweep low is the floor
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk
04:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, momentum hot · RSI 72 · price 4,188.99
V-shaped reversal; Monday low swept, NY range top broken, HH/HL chain since 01:45 UTC.
Late Asia session: gold swept Monday's 4154.71 low to an Asia low of 4150.70, then ran nearly $39 to 4189.49. Price cleared the 4175 NY range top and the 4180 prior high, with RSI(14) near 72, as USD drifted off Monday's highs. The 4192.82 swing high and the 4200 round number sit just overhead into London open.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,175.40, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,192.82, 4,200.00, 4,208.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4180 prior high, then the 4175 NY range top, would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the rally trendline from the 4150.70 Asia low signals the HH/HL chain is ending
Acceptance above the 4192.82 swing high exposes the 4200 round number and the 4208.26 Monday high
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early London, could materially shift this read; CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
03:47 UTC
Sharp Asia rebound inside a 24h decline · RSI 64 · price 4,182.81
Asia low swept, HL chain since 4150.70, price testing 50–61.8% retrace.
Asia dipped through Monday's 4154.71 NY low to an Asia low of 4150.70, then rebounded about 33 dollars. The recovery cleared the 4175.5 breakout level, and price is now stalling between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4208–4150 decline. RSI(14) is near 64, and the bounce runs against a USD bid on the oil shock, leaving 4186–4193 (61.8% fib, prior high) as the first area to watch for rejection.
Support: 4,175.50, 4,166.40, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,186.30, 4,192.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4175.5 breakout level returns price to Monday's NY range
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 4186.3 and the 4192.8 prior high opens the 4200 range top
A break of rally support and loss of the 4166.4 higher low would unwind the rebound; the 4150.70 Asia low is next below
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk
03:33 UTC
Intraday rebound after Asia sweep · RSI 64 · price 4,181.44
Asia session dipped below Monday's 4154.71 low to a sweep low at 4150.70, then reversed about $33 as DXY eased slightly from its YTD high. Price reclaimed Monday's NY range top near 4175.5 and is holding just under the 4183.73 session high, with RSI(14) at 64 and a steady higher-low chain off the low.
Support: 4,175.50, 4,167.20, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,183.73, 4,192.82, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds 4175.5 (old range top) keeps the breakout read intact. A close back below the fib 50% at 4167.2 puts the rebound in doubt.
A break above the 4183.73 session high opens the 4192.82 swing high, with the 4200 psych level and range top beyond.
A loss of the 4150.70 sweep low turns the false break into a lower-low.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, just after London open, could shift USD and this read. US CPI on Wed is the larger risk.
03:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend interrupted by sharp Asia rebound · RSI 59 · price 4,179.02
False break below Monday low, overnight range top reclaimed.
Asia session swept Monday's 4154.71 London low to a 4150.70 Asian low, then rebounded hard through the 4175.4 overnight range top to a 4180.94 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 59. Monday's slide from 4212 on the oil-driven USD bid is still the backdrop, with the 4192.8 swing high and 4200 round number overhead.
Support: 4,175.40, 4,166.40, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,180.94, 4,192.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4175.4 range top keeps the breakout intact; a slip back inside exposes the 4166.4 higher low
M15 close above the 4180.94 Asian high opens the 4192.8 swing high, then the 4200 round number
Break of the rebound line and the 4166.4 higher low unwinds the reversal and puts the 4150.70 Asian low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Asia sweep of Monday's low, then reclaim of the NY range top.
Late in the Asia session, gold swept Monday's 4154.71 low to a 4150.70 session low, then rallied about 30 to a 4180.94 session high. That move cleared the 4175.9 prior high that capped Monday's NY range. RSI(14) sits near 61 and ATR(14) is about 850 pips, with Monday's oil- and USD-driven slide from 4213 still the backdrop.
Support: 4,175.90, 4,165.80, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,180.94, 4,192.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4175.9 prior high returns price to Monday's 4160–4175 range
Clearing the 4180.94 session high opens the 4192.8 swing high and the 4200 psych level
The fib 50% at 4165.8 is the Asia rally's midpoint; loss of the 4150.70 session low invalidates the sweep read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
02:47 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from Asia sweep · RSI 54 · price 4,172.84
Asia low swept and reclaimed; price back at 4175 range top.
Late in the Asia session, price pushed below Monday's 4154.7 monday low to a 4150.7 asia low, but the break failed and price recovered the whole leg back to the 4175.6 range top, which has capped price six times since Monday's NY session. The bounce has printed a 4166.4 higher low with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 54, as the oil-driven USD bid behind Monday's slide from 4214 eases slightly in Asia.
Support: 4,166.40, 4,154.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,175.60, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.6 range top breaks the cap and opens the 4180.1 prior high
Loss of the 4166.4 higher low puts the 4154.7 monday low and the 4150.7 asia low back in play
A move back under the 61.8% of the asia rebound fib near 4160 would erase the recovery
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk
Lower highs from 4214; false break of Monday low reclaimed.
Gold printed lower highs from Monday's 4214 high as oil-driven USD strength lifted Fed hike pricing. Early Asia made a false break of the 4154.7 monday low to 4150.7 before a sharp reclaim; price now tests the 4175.9 asian high, the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,166.40, 4,154.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,175.90, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4175.9 asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 4180.1 swing high
Failure to hold the 4166.4 higher low returns price toward the 4154.7 monday low and 4150.7 asian low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs in Asia after sweep of Monday low, price at 61.8% retrace.
Asia session faded from the 4175.9 asia high and swept Monday's 4154.7 monday low to a 4150.7 session low before reclaiming it. Price now sits near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop around 4166, capped by lower highs at the 4169.9 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 as a firm USD on oil and Fed hike odds keeps rallies contained.
Support: 4,160.70, 4,154.70, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,169.90, 4,175.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4169.9 swing high breaks the Asia lower-highs line and puts the 4175.9 asia high in play
Loss of the 4160.7 asia pivot exposes the 4154.7 monday low again; a close below the 4150.7 session low negates the false-break read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ahead of London open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4214, Asia sweep of Monday's low rejected.
Gold's slide from Monday's 4214 open kept a lower-high chain as an oil-driven USD bid weighed. Early Asia Tuesday swept the Monday NY low at 4154.71 down to an asian low of 4150.70 and snapped back to the 50–61.8% retracement of the drop from the asian high, with price capped just under EMA20.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,150.70
Resistance: 4,169.90, 4,175.94, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150.70 asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 4169.90 lower high, then the 4175.94 asian high, breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; Monday's london high at 4180.13 sits above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,155.13
Tuesday Asia sold off from 4175.94 and broke Monday's NY low intraday. 4169.90 bounce rejected..
Gold slid from the 4175.94 Asian high early in the Asia session and broke out of Monday's 4160–4175 NY range. It tagged a 4152.25 session low just under the 4154.71 Monday low as an oil-driven USD bid keeps pressure on into Wednesday's CPI. A spike to 4169.90 met a rejection and was fully reversed, leaving a lower-high chain under the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 37, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,152.25, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,161.00, 4,169.90, 4,175.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4152.25 session low and the 4150 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 4161 breakdown level and the 4169.90 rejection high breaks the descending trendline
A reclaim of the 4175.94 Asian high negates the Asia-session breakdown read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Fib retracement of the Asian high-to-low drop: 50–61.8% sits near 4164–4167, an area to watch for rejection
Lower highs and lows; Asia bounce rejected at 61.8% retrace.
Mid-Asia session, Monday's 4154.71 low was swept to a new asian low at 4153.65. The bounce was rejected at the 61.8% fib of the 4175.94–4153.65 leg, with the bounce high at 4169.90, and price is back pressing the lows. This extends Monday's oil-driven, USD-led slide from 4217; RSI(14) near 37 is not at an extreme.
Support: 4,153.65, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,169.90, 4,175.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4153.65 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4150 round number
Reclaim of the 4169.90 bounce high, above the fib 61.8 level, invalidates the sweep-and-reject read and puts the 4175.94 asian high back in focus
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Down from Monday high, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 4,167.75
4155–4176 range; Asia sweep of Monday low reclaimed.
Monday's decline from 4217 settled into a 4155–4176 range through NY as oil-driven USD strength and ~90% December hike odds capped gold. The Asia session broke below Monday's 4154.71 low to a 4153.65 sweep low and reversed sharply to 4167. That puts price back inside the range near the 23.6% of the Monday decline fib, with RSI(14) neutral at ~47.
Support: 4,160.80, 4,153.65
Resistance: 4,175.90, 4,180.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4153.65 sweep low turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 4175.90 range top (Asian range high) opens the 38.2% of the Monday decline at 4178 and the 4180.13 london high
Loss of the 4160.80 swing low would undo the reclaim and put the sweep low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London session) could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger range risk
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 41 · price 4,161.96
4154–4176 range, Asia sweep of the floor.
Monday's slide from 4217 on the oil-driven USD bid flattened into a 4154–4176 range. Bounces have stalled at the 4170 shelf and the 4175.94 Asian high. The Asia open drop briefly swept the 4154.71 Monday low to 4153.65 before recovering to 4162. Price is below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) sits near 41.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,175.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4154.71 Monday low turns the sweep into a lower-low and exposes the 4150 round number
Recovery through the 4170 shelf and 4175.94 Asian high, near the fib 38.2 at 4178, would put the range top back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Early Asia Tuesday broke the rising trendline off Monday's NY lows and the 4166.6 overnight floor. The bounce to 4168.4 capped as a lower high, and price is now pressing the 4158.8 NY low with RSI(14) near 36. Monday's slide from 4217 tracked oil-driven USD strength lifting Fed hike odds.
Support: 4,158.80, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,168.40, 4,175.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4158.8 NY low exposes the 4154.7 day low
Reclaim of the 4168.4 lower high and the broken trendline negates the breakdown; 4175.9 asia high sits above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Down leg stalled, ranging below 4176 · RSI 43 · price 4,164.65
Lower-low from 4217 to 4154.7, then a 4155–4176 range; early Asia retesting the range floor.
Monday's slide from the 4217 Asia high, driven by oil-led USD strength and hawkish Fed pricing, bottomed at the 4154.71 Monday low in NY hours. Price has since held a 4155–4176 range below the fib 38.2 retrace. Early Asia rejected the 4175.9 range top and dipped to 4160.9, retesting the 4160 swing low; RSI(14) is near 43 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,160.00, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.90, 4,178.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.71 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4175.9 range top and the fib 38.2 at 4178.6 opens the path toward the 4200 psych level
Repeated holds at the 4160 swing low keep the range read intact
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the bigger risk
00:17 UTC
Range after Monday sell-off, drifting to range floor · RSI 44 · price 4,165.12
4155–4176 range since NY Monday; Asia high rejected, lower highs intact.
Early Asia session rejected the 4176 range top and dropped about $14 back to the 4160 late-NY low. Gold stays boxed in the 4155–4176 range, below the 23.6% retrace of Monday's 4217–4155 slide, as oil-driven USD strength and ~90% December hike pricing cap bounces. RSI(14) at 44 is neutral.
Support: 4,160.08, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,175.94, 4,178.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.71 day low breaks the range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 4175.94 range top opens the 38.2% fib at 4178.6
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London open) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Consolidation 4155–4176, higher lows under a flat range top.
After the oil-driven USD bid knocked gold from 4217 to the 4154.7 monday low at NY open, price has compressed beneath a 4176 range top with higher lows at 4158.8, 4160.1 ny low and 4163.4. Early Asia has already printed another rejection at 4175.9. Price is now testing the rising-lows trendline and the 4166.6 asia low, with EMA20/EMA50 flattening just overhead.
Support: 4,166.60, 4,160.10, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,176.00, 4,180.10
What it said to watch
Close below the 4166.6 asia low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 4160.1 ny low back in play
Close above the 4176 range top ends the consolidation and exposes the 4180.1 swing high near the 38.2% retrace of the Monday drop
Loss of the 4154.7 monday low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI