XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Broader downtrend, now range-bound · RSI 45 · price 4,163.61
Lower highs from 4399; 4100-4220 range since late Sept.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4399 mid-September peak and has been boxed in a 4100-4220 range for two weeks. The dip to the 4066 2-month low was bought back into the range, and Friday's rally on the Michigan sentiment miss and softer yields met rejection at the 4217 range top, capped again by firm yields and a strong dollar. Price is now retracing toward the 38.2% fib of that leg, near the 4147 swing low and just under the flat ema20 and EMA50 cluster around 4165-4172. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 2350 pips from 3500+ in late September, so the range is tightening ahead of CPI.
Support: 4,147.00, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,172.00, 4,217.00, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC: a core print away from the 0.2% m/m forecast could decide the range break
H4 close above the 4217 range top and the 4227 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4147 swing low and the higher-low line exposes the 4104 range floor
Loss of the 4104 range floor puts the 4066 2-month low back in play
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4172 returns price to the upper half of the range
Bowman speeches and the Beige Book on Wednesday add Fed-repricing risk
17:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, two-week range · RSI 43 · price 4,158.21
Lower highs from 4399 to 4227; higher lows since 4066 low, capped at range top.
The slide from the 4399 peak has turned into a 4100–4227 range. The Friday rebound off the 4066 2-month low came on falling yields and the Michigan sentiment miss, but it has been rejected repeatedly at the 4200–4217 range top, below the 4227 swing high. Price is now back at the 38.2% level of that rebound and testing rising support from the 4066 low. EMA20 sits just above EMA50 after the recent cross, with price slipping under both, and ATR(14) near $23 is well below the late-September expansion, so the range is compressing into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 4150 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low sequence from the 4066 low
Failure at the range floor near 4104 exposes the 4066 2-month low
An H4 close above the 4217 range top and the 4227 swing high ends the two-week range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a range · RSI 52 · price 4,188.75
Lower highs from 4399 into a 4100–4227 range; higher lows since 4066.
Gold's slide from the 4399.53 peak bottomed at the 4066.52 swing low. Since then the H4 has printed higher lows at 4105 and 4150.7, with EMA20 crossing back above EMA50. The rebound is capped at the 4207–4227 range top, which has been tested three times, and price sits just under the 38.2% retracement at 4194, with the fib 50% at 4233 above. ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 points from 35–45 during the late-September selloff, a coiled regime heading into Wednesday's US CPI as softer yields offset firm Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,104.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,233.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4217–4227 range top breaks the two-week box and opens the fib 50% at 4233
Failure to hold the 4150.7 higher low returns focus to the 4104 range floor
A break below the range floor exposes the 4066.52 swing low and resumes the lower-low sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Bowman and the Beige Book around it, could materially shift this read; core is the swing factor
Two-week 4066–4227 range; higher low at 4150.7 under a capped range top.
After the slide from the 4399.5 high, gold has been boxed in a 4066–4227 range for two weeks. The rebound from the 4066.52 two-month low came on falling yields and the Michigan sentiment miss, and it printed a higher low at 4150.7, with EMA20 back above EMA50. Supply keeps capping the move at the 4200 psych level, with the 4217 swing high and 4227 range top just above. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 2,250 pips from the 3,500+ pip bars seen earlier in the window, a coiled setup ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,110.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; core is the swing factor
H4 close above the 4227 range top breaks the two-week range and clears the 4217 swing high
Another rejection at 4200 psych keeps the range read intact
Failure to hold the 4150.7 higher low reopens the 4110 range floor
Break below the 4066.52 two-month low resumes the lower-high, lower-low sequence
09:05 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a range, higher low forming · RSI 56 · price 4,187.47
4100-4220 range after lower highs from 4399; higher low at 4150.
Gold has been boxed between the 4100 range floor and the 4200-4227 range top for two and a half weeks after the slide from 4399. The bounce from the 4066.52 2-month low, helped by easing yields and the Michigan sentiment miss, has left a higher low at 4150.70, near the 38.2-50% zone of the rebound fib. Supply has capped every push into 4200-4217 against a USD at an 18-month high. ATR(14) near $25 is down from the late-September breakdown, and the compression sits just under the range top with EMA20 holding above EMA50.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,227.28, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC, with core m/m vs 0.2% f/c, is the likely trigger for a range break
H4 close above the 4217 range top and 4227.28 prior high ends the range read; 4315.66 lower high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 4150.70 higher low brings the 4100 range floor back into play
A break below the 4066.52 2-month low resumes the lower-low sequence
DXY push toward 103.30 would add pressure at the range top
05:05 UTC
Range after downtrend, short-term higher lows · RSI 61 · price 4,188.83
Lower highs from 4399.53; two-week 4100–4220 range.
Gold has printed a lower-high sequence from 4399.53 and is now capped by the descending lower-high trendline. Price has spent two weeks in a 4100–4220 range, and the bounce from the 4066.52 2-month low stalled with a rejection at the 4217.25 monday high as oil-driven USD strength and hike pricing capped the rally. The pullback held a higher swing low at 4150.70, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the 4066–4217 fib, and EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50. ATR(14) near 2,580 pips is compressing against the range top into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,150.70, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4217.25 monday high would break the lower-high trendline and the range top, exposing the 4227.28 prior high
Failure to hold the 4150.70 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 4100 range floor and 4066.52 2-month low back in focus
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC: the core print (f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Waller today 07:45 UTC and Bowman Wed 09:40 UTC could shift December hike odds before CPI
Lower highs from 4399, now a 4100-4227 range with a higher low off 4066.
Gold has printed lower highs at 4399, 4315, 4227 and 4217, and the 4100-4227 range has held since the late-September drop. Wednesday's lower low at the 4066 two-mo low drew a recovery to the range top on Friday, helped by softer yields and the Michigan sentiment miss. Supply capped that move at 4217 again as the oil-driven USD bid held. Price is now sitting on EMA20 (~4168), with EMA20 back above EMA50 (~4158). It is holding above the 38.2% fib (~4160), the 4155 swing low and the rising support from 4066, while ATR(14) contracts into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4217 range top and 4227 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4155 swing low and rising support would expose the 4104 range floor
A break below the 4066 two-mo low would resume the lower-low structure
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC