XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, range floor under pressure · RSI 34 · price 4,102.21
Lower highs from 4399; two-week range 4066-4227 broken lower, retesting floor.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4399 peak early in the window, settling into a two-week range with the range top capping at 4217-4227 and the range floor near 4100-4110. Hot core CPI broke that floor, taking price to a 4073 swing low, and the bounce is now retesting the broken range floor from below with price under both EMAs. ATR(14) expanded on the CPI bar after a quieter range phase.
Resistance: 4,110.00, 4,150.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4110 range floor puts price back inside the range
Failure at 4110 and a break of the 4073 swing low and 4066 range low confirms a lower low
Reclaiming the 4150 breakdown shelf would mark the CPI break as a false break
Range top at 4217 caps the upside of the two-week range
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, breakdown from two-week range · RSI 29 · price 4,079.42
Lower highs from 4227; range floor broken.
Gold traded a 4100–4220 range for two weeks, with a run of lower highs from 4227 tracing a lower-highs trendline. The hot core CPI beat lifted USD and yields, and that produced the widest bar in the window, a close through the range floor near 4104. Price now sits just above the 4066 swing low with RSI in oversold territory and ATR expanding off the compressed range. The fib 50% of the 4217–4079 leg near 4148 is the first overhead reference above the old range floor, and the range top at 4217 remains the upper edge of the prior structure.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,103.93, 4,148.20, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4104 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4066 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4000 round number
A reclaim of the fib 50% at 4148 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown read
Beige Book (18:00 UTC today) and Thursday's PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
A break above the 4217 range top would invalidate the lower-high sequence
13:05 UTC
Range after downtrend, drifting lower · RSI 38 · price 4,140.79
Two-week $4,100–$4,230 range; lower highs since 4217.
After the late-September slide from 4399, gold has held a two-week range between the range floor near 4104 and the range top at 4227. Repeated rejection came at 4200–4227. Since the 4217 prior high, the H4 has printed lower highs at 4200 and the 4170 lower high. Price is now at the 50% retracement of the 4066–4217 swing, below both EMAs, which are converging. The hot core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) and 5.2% 10y yields add pressure toward the 4136 recent low. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly $22 from near $40 during the selloff, consistent with a range nearing resolution.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4104 range floor would mark a range break and open the 4066 swing low
H4 close above the 4170 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4217 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 4136 recent low exposes the 61.8% retracement near 4124
Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could extend or reverse the post-CPI USD move
Thursday PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT could decide whether the range top or floor gives way
4100-4227 range since the late-September drop; lower highs at the range high, rally capped near 4200.
Gold has been boxed in a 4100-4227 range since the late-September slide from 4399. Upper tests stalled at 4227 and 4217, and rallies keep stalling into the 4200 range cap. The rebound off the 4066 oct low has retraced toward its 50% level, with price back below the ema20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 2300 pips from 3500+ earlier in the window, with the 4143 swing low tested three times this week as rising yields weigh ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,143.00, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,172.00, 4,200.00, 4,227.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today, core m/m vs 0.2% f/c, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 4143 swing low exposes the 4104 range floor and the 61.8% retrace near 4124
Close back above the ema20 near 4172 eases the near-term downside pressure; a break of the 4200 range cap reopens the 4227 range high
Failure to hold the 4104 range floor targets the 4066 oct low and breaks the multi-week range
05:05 UTC
Range after downtrend, compressing · RSI 43 · price 4,162.20
Lower highs at 4227/4217 against a higher low at 4144 above the 4066 low; contracting range.
After the lower-high roll-over from 4399.53 and the break below 4250, gold has held a 4066–4227 range for two weeks. Within it, supply has capped two lower highs at the 4227 swing high and 4217, while demand stepped in at a higher low around the 4144 swing low, building a contracting structure near the 38.2% retracement of the 4066–4217 swing. ATR(14) is near 24 dollars, down from about 35–40 during the breakdown leg, and price sits just under a flattening ema20 and EMA50 into today's US CPI, where 5.2% 10y yields and hike pricing set the backdrop.
Resistance: 4,172.00, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4144 swing low exposes the 4100 range floor and the 2-month low at 4066
H4 close above the 4200 range cap and 4227 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 4172 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC: a core print at 0.3%+ or 0.1% or lower could resolve the compression either way
Lower highs from 4399; 4100-4217 range since late Sept.
Gold has printed lower highs from 4399 through 4315, 4227 and 4217, and since late September has been boxed between the range floor near 4104 and the range top at 4217. Last week's rebound from the 4066 two-month low stalled at the range top. Monday's reversal on firmer oil and a stronger DXY took price back below the ema20 and EMA50, to the 38.2% fib of the 4066-4217 leg and just above the 4147 swing low. ATR(14) near 2350 pips is well below the 3000+ readings of late September, so the market is compressing ahead of US CPI. EMA20 still sits above EMA50, but the two are converging.
Support: 4,146.98, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4147 swing low exposes the range floor near 4104, then the 4066 two-month low
H4 close above the 4217 range top and the 4227 prior high would break the lower-highs trendline and end the range read
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4170 would put the range top back in focus
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the downtrend is resuming
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; core m/m vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read