Lower highs from 4697, but higher lows since the 4235 six-week low; coiling in a 4322-4400 band.
The dominant leg is still lower — a chain of lower highs from 4697 into the 4235 six-week low printed after the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike and dot-plot lift — but that spike low was rejected the same session and price has since built higher lows, the latest at the 4322 swing low. The rebound has repeatedly stalled into the 4399 swing high with EMA20 (~4347) still pinned under EMA50 (~4356) and spot marginally below both, leaving the last six bars compressed in a sub-30 dollar band. ATR(14) has rolled off the event-driven expansion of the past two weeks, so this is compression inside the broader 4322-4400 range rather than trend extension.
Support: 4,264.04, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,355.70, 4,399.53, 4,422.00
What it said to watch
S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the nearest high-impact print and can resolve the 4322-4400 compression either way
An H4 close above the 4399 swing high opens the path to the 4422 range top
Loss of the 4322 swing low re-exposes the 4264 prior low and the 4235 six-week low
Sustained trade back above EMA50 at ~4356 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 4656 but base carved at 4235; last ten bars coiling 4322-4400.
The H4 series has printed lower highs all month from 4656 down to the 4235 fomc low, but the last two weeks have flattened into a 4235-4400 post-FOMC range with price now pinned at 4346, just under the EMA20/EMA50 ema cluster around 4356. The hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot shift drove the mid-week flush, then Thursday's 2% snapback reclaimed the 100d sma shelf near 4322 and probed the 4400 range top before supply capped it. ATR(14) has narrowed from the flush-bar extremes and the last four bars closed within 30 points of each other — compression inside the range rather than trend extension.
Support: 4,322.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,356.00, 4,400.00, 4,510.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 closes above the 4400 range top would invalidate the lower-high sequence and open the 4510 prior high area
Loss of the 4322 100d sma shelf puts the 4264 swing low and the 4235 fomc low back in play
Rejection at the 4356 ema cluster keeps the read as a capped consolidation
S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main event risk and could break the compression in either direction
Higher lows off 4235 capped by a flat 4400 range top.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 4696 bottomed at the 4235 3-week low set into the hawkish FOMC hike and lifted dot plot, and price has since built higher lows at 4274, 4304 and the 4340 lows cluster as yields and the dollar eased back. That rebound has twice stalled just under the 4400 range top, with 4399.53 and 4396.98 marking the rejection area, while price now trades marginally above a flattening EMA20/EMA50 pair clustered at 4351/4356. ATR(14) has compressed from the FOMC-week extremes, leaving a tightening band between 4340 and 4400 inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 4,340.00, 4,304.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,431.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4400 range top would break the lower-high sequence and put the 4431 swing high in focus
Loss of the 4340 lows cluster exposes the 4304 swing low and re-opens the 4235 3-week low
S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main data risk and could resolve the current compression
The three-week H4 sequence of lower highs bottomed at the 4235 six-week low printed on the post-FOMC flush, after the hawkish dot plot repriced the Fed path; since then price has carved higher lows (4257, 4304, 4342) into a 4235–4400 range. Two attempts at the 4400 range top were turned away — 4402 and 4399 — leaving a double-top look at the ceiling, and the last three bars have slipped back under both the ema50 at 4356 and the EMA20, with RSI back at the midline. ATR(14) near 3356 pips keeps daily swings wide, so the range edges are being covered quickly rather than compressing.
Support: 4,320.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,356.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4400 range top would invalidate the range read and the double top
Loss of the 4320 100d sma would re-expose 4264 swing low and the 4235 six-week low
EMA20 is sitting just below the ema50 — a cross back above would mark the first change in that alignment since the flush
US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main rate-repricing risk for this range
The dominant structure is still the slide from 4696 into the post-FOMC 4235 range low, but since that low the series has printed higher lows — 4257, 4305, 4334 — as the retreat in US yields on the crude pullback took pressure off bullion. Price has stalled twice just under the 4400 prior high, which sits directly beneath the 38.2% retracement of the 4696–4235 downswing at 4411, while EMA20 (4351) remains marginally below EMA50 (4359) with price pinned between them. ATR(14) near 36 dollars is well off the FOMC-week extremes, consistent with base-building rather than trend expansion.
Support: 4,334.00, 4,300.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,411.00, 4,435.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4400 prior high extends the higher-high sequence and brings the 4411 fib 38.2 and the 4435 swing high into play
Failure to hold the 4334 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and re-opens the 4300 pivot and 4235 range low
EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would confirm the rebound as more than corrective
S&P Global US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the Fed speaker cluster are the main external risks to this read
Lower highs since 4680; four sessions of higher lows off 4235.
The dominant H4 sequence is still lower highs and lower lows from the 4680 area down to the 4235 cycle low printed on the hawkish FOMC hike and upgraded dot plot. Since that low, four sessions of higher lows have rebuilt price back above 4340 as yields and oil eased, and the 4400 round number is now the ceiling on the bounce, with the 4441 swing high the next shelf above it. ATR(14) near 4,400 pips (~44 points) shows volatility still expanded versus the pre-FOMC regime, and price is trading marginally above both EMA20 and EMA50 after the recovery.
Support: 4,340.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,441.00
What it said to watch
A sustained H4 close above the 4400 round number would break the lower-high sequence that has defined the window
Loss of the 4340 recent lows reopens the 4264 swing low and the 4235 cycle low
Rejection at 4400 while higher lows hold keeps the 4340-4400 consolidation intact
S&P Global US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the dense Fed speaker slate can reprice this read inside a bar or two