Lower highs into a $4,235–$4,400 range, short-term higher lows.
The impulsive leg from 4673 has bottomed at the 4235 range floor and price has spent the last three weeks carving lower highs into a 4235–4400 band, with the 4400 range cap rejected twice. Last week's Fed hike and DXY holding above 100 kept rallies capped, but the most recent bars have printed a sequence of higher lows off 4291 and reclaimed both the ema20 and EMA50, with EMA20 now back above EMA50. ATR(14) near $31 per bar is off the highs of the sell-off, consistent with range compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 4,349.00, 4,291.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4400 range cap invalidates the range read and exposes 4422/4500
Loss of the 4291 swing low re-opens the 4235 range floor and confirms a lower low
A close back under the ema20 near 4349 stalls the higher-low sequence
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into range · RSI 41 · price 4,329.01
Lower highs under 4400 after basing above the 4235 post-Fed low.
The dominant move in this window is the slide from 4668 to the 4235 post-Fed low, driven by the hawkish 25bp hike and a DXY back above 100.00; since that low price has carved a 4291–4400 band with successive lower highs at 4400, then 4377. Price at 4329.01 sits below both EMA20 (~4348) and EMA50 (~4340), with the EMAs flattening and converging — ATR(14) near 32 dollars is off the mid-month expansion peak, consistent with range conditions rather than trend extension. Each probe of the 4291 swing low has been bought back within the same session block, while supply has capped every approach to the range cap.
Support: 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,348.00, 4,377.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4291 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4235 post-fed low
Sustained H4 close above the 4377 lower high, and then the 4400 range cap, invalidates the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming ema20 near 4348 would neutralise the short-term downward drift
US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT (Services f/c 56, Mfg f/c 53.5) can materially reset this range read within one bar
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, now range-bound · RSI 36 · price 4,322.88
Lower highs into a two-week range; price back under EMA20/EMA50.
A sequence of lower highs from the 4659 top has flattened into a two-week 4235–4400 range, with the 4400 range top rejecting every rebound since the post-FOMC slide to the 4235 6wk low. Price closed back beneath the EMA20 near 4350 and the EMA50, RSI sits near 36, and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly $31 per bar — a tighter regime than the impulsive legs earlier in the window. Hawkish Fed repricing and a firm dollar have capped rallies, while dip demand around the 4291 recent low has so far held the lower half of the range.
Support: 4,291.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,350.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4400 range top invalidates the range read and breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the EMA20 at 4350 would be the first sign the recent leg down is stalling
Failure to hold the 4291 recent low exposes the 4253 swing low and the 4235 6wk low
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the next high-impact print and could resolve the ATR compression in either direction
Lower highs since 4399; consolidation breaking down.
Gold remains in a lower-high sequence since the 4399 rebound peak that followed the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot repricing, which first drove price to the 4235 window low. The last twelve bars coiled between roughly 4322 and 4383 before this bar closed at 4300.90, a range break through the base of that consolidation and back below the 4350 pivot, with EMA20 (~4342) sitting under EMA50 (~4351) and price beneath both. ATR(14) near 31.0 is mid-range for the window, so the move is expanding rather than compressing, and RSI at 39 is soft without being stretched.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,261.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,350.00, 4,383.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
Recovery of the 4350 pivot on an H4 close would negate the fresh lower low and restore the 4322-4383 consolidation read
Failure to hold the 4300 psych area exposes the 4261 swing low and then the 4235 window low
Rallies capped so far by the 4383 prior high and the 4400 round number — zone to monitor for rejection or break
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC (Services f/c 56, Mfg 53.5) is the main scheduled risk that could reset this structure
Lower highs since 4673 high, but higher lows off the 4235 six-week low; now coiling.
Gold's three-week sequence of lower highs from 4673 bottomed at the 4235 six-week low after the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot shift, and price has since built a higher-low base while stalling repeatedly under the 4383 swing high and the 4400 psych level. The last seven bars are pinned in a tight 4322–4383 band with EMA20 back below EMA50 around 4351 and both flattening, so the cross carries little slope. ATR(14) has compressed from the 50+ prints seen during the Fed-week flush toward the high-20s, a coil typical of a pending range resolution rather than trend extension.
Support: 4,322.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,351.00, 4,383.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4383 and then the 4400 psych level would end the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4322 range low re-opens 4264 swing low and the 4235 six-week low
Reclaiming EMA50 at 4351 on a close would neutralise the bearish EMA cross
S&P Global US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC is the main event risk to this compression read
The hawkish Fed hike drove the impulse leg from 4510 down to the 4235 post-fed low, and price has since built a shallow higher-low sequence as 10y yields backed away from 5% — the rebound stalled twice into 4383-4400, which is now the range cap. Price at 4368 sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of that decline, with EMA20 (~4350) and EMA50 (~4356) flattened and almost overlapping, confirming the trend has gone sideways rather than reversed. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly $34 per bar from the $50+ post-FOMC readings, and the whole of last week's action is contained between the swing lows at 4340 and the 4400 cap.
Support: 4,340.00, 4,322.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,383.00, 4,400.00, 4,422.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4400 range cap would end the consolidation read and expose the 4422 mid-band
Failure to hold 4340 swing lows and then the 100-day sma at 4322 would re-open the 4235 post-fed low
S&P Global Services/Manufacturing PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the week's only high-impact US data and can resolve this compression
Rejection at the 4383 prior high for a third time would keep the lower-highs line intact