Lower highs and lower lows; Tue–Wed 4105–4142 range broken lower Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 peak. Thursday's Asia-session break of the 4105 range floor extended through London and NY to a 4021 week low, and the NY bounce stalled at a 4091 lower high just under EMA(50). The digest ties the drop to oil-driven December-hike pricing rather than yields, with haven flows going to Treasuries; price sits below EMA(20) near 4059 and EMA(50) near 4090, while RSI(14) near 31 holds a higher low versus Thursday's London trough despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence not yet confirmed.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,059.00, 4,105.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 near 4059 and the lower highs trendline would be the first break in Thursday's sequence
38.2% of the Thursday selloff sits near 4067; a stall there leaves the lower-high structure intact
Reclaim of the 4091 lower high and the 4105 range floor would negate the range-break read
Failure to hold the 4021 week low exposes the 4000 psych level
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus WTI vs $100, could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; Mon–Wed range floor broken Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 London-open peak, with Tuesday's 4155 and Wednesday's 4142 highs fading before Asia broke the 4105 range floor early Thursday. Oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed lower yields, and NY hours extended the leg to the 4021 week low, just above the 4000 psych level and well below EMA(20) near 4060. RSI(14) is oversold around 28, and the 4091.7 bounce high sits at the 38.2% level of the week drop fib.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,060.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4034.4 prior low would turn the latest break into a false break
A reclaim of EMA(20) near 4060 is needed to interrupt the lower-highs sequence; the 4091.7 bounce high caps above that
Failure to hold the 4021 week low and the 4000 psych level extends the downtrend
A new low with RSI(14) holding above its London-session trough would flag bullish RSI divergence
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into Thursday · RSI 29 · price 4,024.34
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 4105–4142 range.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open high at 4190. Thursday's Asia session broke the Tuesday–Wednesday range, which had held above the 4105 Wed low, and the slide ran through London and NY to a 4021 week low as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing overrode lower yields. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) near 4055 with RSI(14) oversold around 29, and the NY-open rebound to 4092 faded at the lower-high line, leaving the 4067 range floor (38.2% of Thursday's leg) overhead.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,055.00, 4,067.00, 4,105.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4067 range floor would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4021 week low exposes the 4000 psych level
Repeated H1 closes above the ema20 near 4055 would signal the slide losing momentum
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM 1-yr inflation expectations could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into oversold · RSI 29 · price 4,028.48
Lower highs since Monday, range floor broken.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 week high and sits about $140 under the 4168 weekly open. Thursday's Asia session broke the Tue–Wed 4105–4155 range floor, and London and NY extended the slide to a 4021 week low as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed falling yields. The NY-open bounce high at 4091.7 faded after the firm 194K claims print, leaving price well below EMA(20) near 4066 with RSI(14) oversold around 29.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.00, 4,091.73, 4,105.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 4066 (ema20 and the lower-highs trendline) would be the first sign the Thursday sell-off is stalling
Failure to hold the 4021 week low exposes the 4000 psych level
A recovery through the 4091.7 bounce high and into the 4105 range floor (near the 38.2% fib at ~4096) would put the breakdown in retest territory
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil/Gulf headlines have driven $30–40 intraday swings this week; a diplomacy-led oil drop has been the bounce trigger
19:05 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after range break · RSI 30 · price 4,029.11
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Tue–Wed 4105–4155 range broken lower.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190.31 London-open high, and Thursday's Asia session broke the 4105–4155 range that contained Tuesday and Wednesday. Each bounce since has faded below EMA(20): 4102.81 in London, then a 4091.73 lower high in NY. Price is now grinding at a 4028.66 week low with RSI(14) near 30. The digest ties the move to oil-driven Fed hike pricing, with no haven bid even as yields eased. The 4066.81 Asia low lines up with the broken 4,065–4,070 floor and the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's leg.
Support: 4,028.66, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4048.44 swing high would break the intraday lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4066.81 asia low / 38.2% fib would challenge the range-break read; the 4091.73 lower high sits above
Failure to hold the 4028.66 week low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break above the descending lower-high trendline would mark the first structural change this week
Lower highs and lower lows; 4105–4142 range broken lower.
Gold has given up about $155 from Monday's 4190.31 week high. Thursday's Asia-session break below the 4104.98 Wed low turned the two-day 4105–4142 range into a fresh leg down, through the 4067 range floor to a 4034.36 week low during NY hours. The NY-open bounce stalled at the 4092 rebound high, and rallies are capped along a line of lower highs as oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighs haven demand. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 34 is weak but not yet oversold; Thursday's leg fib places the 38.2% retracement near 4075.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,091.73, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 4067 range floor and the lower-highs line (~4072) would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 4034.36 week low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
A reclaim of the 4092 rebound high and the 4105 Wed low would mark the range break as a false break
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after range break · RSI 29 · price 4,036.70
Lower highs since Monday's 4190 peak; Tue–Wed 4105–4155 range broken Thursday.
From Monday's 4168 open, gold has printed lower highs under a lower-high trendline off the 4190 Monday high. The Tue–Wed 4105–4155 range gave way in Thursday's Asia session, and London extended the leg through the 4067 broken floor, where oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed the haven bid. A spike to the 4092 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, reversed sharply around the 194K jobless claims print, and NY hours pressed to a 4034 session low. Price now sits about $40 below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 29, the first oversold reading of the week.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4067 broken floor would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 4034 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
Recovery through ema20 and the 4092 bounce high (38.2% fib) would interrupt the lower-high sequence; the lower-high trendline sits near 4128
A fresh price low with a higher RSI low would mark bullish divergence from oversold
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
16:05 UTC
Downtrend, extended after range break · RSI 30 · price 4,050.89
Lower highs and lower lows each day since Monday; range floor lost Thursday.
Gold has printed lower highs every day since Monday's 4190 London-open high, and the 4105–4142 Wednesday range gave way in Thursday's Asia session, taking out the 4067 range floor by the London session. Oil-driven hike pricing kept the haven bid absent: a spike to 4091.73 around the claims beat in the first hour of NY was rejected, and price set a week low at 4044.75 with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR expanding. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and no pullback this week has held above the prior day's lower high.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,067.00, 4,102.81, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4067 range floor would mark the Thursday break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4044.75 week low exposes the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4102.81 lower high (≈38.2% of the week's decline) breaks the lower-high sequence; the 4142 wed high caps above that
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil and Gulf headlines remain the dominant driver; a de-escalation headline could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce
15:05 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into Thursday · RSI 32 · price 4,059.95
Lower highs each session since Monday; 4065-4070 range floor broken.
Gold has set lower highs in every session since Monday's 4190 top (4155 Tue, 4142 Wed, 4092 Thu). Thursday broke the 4065-4070 range floor: an Asia-session drop took price through 4100, then the NY open whipsawed from 4057 to 4092 and down to the 4044.75 Thursday low, with oil rising on Gulf headlines and claims beating at 194K. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4088 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 32, stretched but not yet oversold. The 38.2% fib of the week's decline lines up with the 4100 round number.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,088.00, 4,100.35
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4065-4070 range floor would mark Thursday's break as a potential false break
Failure to hold the 4044.75 Thursday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Recovery through EMA(20) near 4088 and the 4100 fib 38.2 would break the lower-highs line from Monday's high
Friday's S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; oil and Gulf headlines remain the dominant driver
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new week lows · RSI 31 · price 4,054.48
Daily lower highs since Monday; Tue–Wed range broken lower Thursday.
Gold has set a lower high each day since Monday's 4190 peak. Thursday's Asia-to-London leg broke the 4105–4140 range that held Tuesday and Wednesday, and then cut through the 4065–4070 range floor as oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed any haven bid. The bounce to 4091.73 around the 194K claims print met rejection and was fully reversed in the first hour of NY. That leaves price pressing the 4054 session low, below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 4,054.13, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,091.73, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4066.81–4070 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4054.13 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
A reclaim of the 4091.73 bounce high and the 4104.98 Wed low (near the 38.2% fib of the week's decline at ~4106) would interrupt the lower-high sequence
The lower-high trendline from Monday's high caps the structure while price stays beneath it
Friday's S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, as could oil and Gulf headlines
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Wednesday range floor broken.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 week high at Monday's London open. Wednesday's 4105–4142 range gave way in Thursday's Asia session as Gulf escalation lifted oil, with the range floor at 4104.98 now overhead and the Asia low at 4066.81 marking the first leg. The 4057.50 week low printed late in London before a sharp rejection around the 194K jobless claims release; that rebound stalled at a 4091.73 spike high, just under the ema20 near 4097 and the 23.6% fib of the weekly drop, with RSI(14) recovering to ~42 from sub-30.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,057.50, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,091.73, 4,097.05, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4057.50 week low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 4000 psych level the next reference
Holding the 4066.81 Asia low keeps the post-claims rebound intact; acceptance above the 4091.73 spike high and the ema20 brings the 4105 range floor into play
H1 close back above the 4104.98 range floor (near the 38.2% fib) would undercut the range break read
Friday's US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and US-Iran or oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday; Tue–Wed 4105–4155 range broken lower.
Gold has printed lower highs from Monday's 4190.31 peak as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed a softer USD. Tuesday–Wednesday's 4105–4155 range gave way in today's Asia session, and the London-open bounce stalled at a 4102.81 lower high beneath EMA(20). The late-London leg has since cut through the 3m floor at 4065–4070 to a fresh week low at 4057.50, with RSI(14) near 26 oversold and every rebound this week stalling beneath the Mon–Wed lower-high trendline.
Support: 4,057.50, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,096.00, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 4067 (3m floor) would turn the break into a false break
Failure to reclaim the 3m floor leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference below the week low
Recovery through EMA(20) near 4096 and the 4103 lower high would interrupt the lower-high sequence; 38.2% of the Mon high–week low move sits near 4108
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Oil-down or US-Iran diplomacy headlines have produced $25-35 squeezes this week
Lower highs and lower lows; Wed range broken lower.
Gold has printed lower highs every day since Monday's 4190.31 week high. During today's Asia session it broke below the Wednesday low at 4104.98, ending the Wed 4105–4142 range, and set a 4066.81 week low as oil-driven Fed-hike fears outweighed a softer USD. The London-hours bounce cleared the 23.6% retracement of the Mon–Thu drop but stalled at 4102.81, just under the Wed low and EMA(20) near 4102. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 32 and no divergence at the low.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,142.17, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4066.81 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 4000 psych level
Recovery above the Wed low at 4105 and EMA(20) would neutralise the range break; the lower highs trendline near 4130 and the Wed high at 4142 sit above
Reclaiming the weekly open at 4168.37 would invalidate this week's downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows each session; Tue–Wed floor broken, retest capped.
Each session since Monday's London-open high at 4190.31 has printed a lower high and lower low, leaving the weekly open at 4168.37 well overhead and the 4142.17 Wednesday lower high capping. Thursday's Asia session broke the 4105–4112 floor that held Tuesday and Wednesday and printed a week low at 4066.81, close to the digest's $4,065/4,070 range floor. The bounce stalled at 4102.81, just under the broken floor and EMA(20). London has since held a 4080–4100 band with RSI(14) near 35. Hot core PPI is keeping Fed hike pricing firm and gold is trading as an inverse oil/inflation proxy, so the softer USD has offered little support.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,105.00, 4,142.17, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the broken floor at 4105 and EMA(20) would neutralise Thursday's range break
A break of the session low at 4079.90 puts the week low at 4066.81 back in focus
Failure to hold the week low at 4066.81 extends the lower-low sequence; the digest flags $3,960/3,940 below
A close above the lower-high trendline and the 4142.17 lower high would end the week's sequence of lower highs
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) and Friday's PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines: Tuesday's NY-session rebound to 4155.49 came as oil eased
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 34 · price 4,081.65
Lower highs and lower lows; Tue–Wed range floor broken.
Gold has set a lower high every day since Monday's London-session peak at 4190.31. NY-session bounces on Tuesday and Wednesday stalled at 4155 and 4142 as hot core PPI and oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed a softer dollar. Thursday's Asia session broke the 4105–4111 range floor and tagged a 4066.81 monthly low, and the rebound into London stalled at a 4102.81 bounce high just under EMA(20) near 4106, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-30s.
Support: 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81, 4,106.00, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 / prior range lows near 4106 would mark the break as a false break and reopen the 50% retrace of the weekly drop near 4128.6
Failure to hold the 4066.81 monthly low on a closing basis extends the lower-low sequence below the 4065–4070 range floor
A move through the 4142.17 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline drawn from Monday's 4190.31 peak
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read, with Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations next
Lower highs since Monday; Asia broke the 4105-4115 base.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open peak at 4190.31: 4155.49 on Tuesday, then a 4142.17 lower high late Wednesday. Thursday's Asia session broke the 4105-4115 base that held all of Wednesday and probed 4066.81, the week low, before wicking back to 4090. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4109 with RSI(14) around 32. Oil-led Fed-hike pricing is overriding a softer USD, and the week low sits on the 4065-4070 monthly range floor.
Support: 4,084.23, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,105.00, 4,109.00, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4066.81 week low takes out the monthly range floor and extends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4084.23 london low reopens a test of the week low
Reclaim of the 4105 wed low and ema20 near 4109, with the 38.2% fib near 4114 above, would flag the Asia break as a possible false break
H1 close above the 4142.17 lower high breaks the descending trendline from Monday's high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4190; Tue–Wed 4105–4142 range broken lower in Asia today.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session 4190.31 peak. Tuesday's oil-driven NY spike to 4155.49 and Wednesday's late 4142 high both stalled under the lower-highs trendline, with hot-PPI-fuelled December hike pricing outweighing a soft USD. The Tue–Wed 4105–4142 range gave way in Asia today, wicking to a 4066.81 week low just under the $4,070 range floor before settling near the 4087 Asia base, with price below EMA(20) at ~4112 and RSI(14) at 36, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,087.12, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,104.98, 4,111.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4100 round number and the 4105 Wed low would put the range break in question
Loss of the 4087 Asia base reopens the 4066.81 week low; acceptance below the $4,070 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 4112 and the 38.2% level of the Mon–Thu drop fib at ~4114 is needed before the lower-highs trendline (~4133) comes into play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today and any oil-moving US-Iran headline could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; Wednesday's 4105 lows broken in Asia.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from 4190 on Monday to 4155 on Tuesday's oil-driven NY spike and 4142 late Wednesday. Supply capped every rally below the EMA(20). The Asia session on Thursday broke Wednesday's 4105 prior low, as December Fed-hike pricing and oil-linked inflation fears outweighed a soft USD. The drop briefly wicked through the 4070 range floor to an Asia low of 4066.81 before closing back near 4090, with RSI(14) near 33 and the week's impulse lower now spanning 4190–4067.
Support: 4,070.00, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,105.00, 4,114.00, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4105 prior low would undercut the breakdown; the EMA(20) near 4114 sits at the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse
Sustained trade below the 4066.81 Asia low would confirm a break of the 4070 range floor
A move through the lower-high trendline and 4142 would break the week's lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, and Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could materially shift this read
US-Iran or oil headlines: Tuesday's oil drop produced the week's sharpest bounce
Lower highs and lows; Tue–Wed 4105–4142 range broken lower in Asia.
Gold has stepped lower all week, with lower highs from Monday's 4190 London-session peak to 4155 on Tuesday and 4142 late Wednesday. In Thursday's Asia session it broke the 4105 prior low that held Tuesday and Wednesday and tagged a 4088 Asia low, as oil-driven yield pressure and firm December hike pricing kept rallies capped. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4116 with RSI(14) around 33, and the digest's 4070 range floor is the next reference below.
Support: 4,087.99, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,116.00, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4105 prior low would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4088 Asia low exposes the 4070 range floor, where the digest flags long-liquidation risk
A rebound stalling at ema20 (~4116) or the 38.2% of the week fib (~4127) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A close above the lower-high line (~4135) and the 4142 lower high would break the week's downtrend structure
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Fri PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read ahead of next week's FOMC
Lower highs since Monday; Tue–Wed 4105–4142 range broken lower.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open peak at 4190. The Monday NY session drove the first leg lower, and Tuesday's spike to 4155 on the soft housing data was rejected. The 4105–4142 range that held through Tuesday and Wednesday gave way in Thursday's Asia session as oil-led yield pressure returned, printing a week low at 4090 with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 34, while the range top at 4142 sits at the 50% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 4,090.00, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,105.00, 4,118.00, 4,142.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4105 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4090 week low exposes the 4070 range floor
EMA(20) near 4118 capping rebounds keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 4142 range top would break the week's descending structure
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session peak at 4190.31, with oil-driven yield pressure capping rallies. Tuesday's NY spike to the tue high at 4155.49 on the soft housing data faded within the hour. Lows have since compressed into a 4105–4112 shelf, where Wednesday's late-NY flush to the weekly low at 4104.98 was quickly reversed; Asia has now slipped back below the ema20 near 4124, with RSI(14) near 39 and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline at 4137.6, just under the 4142.17 lower high.
Support: 4,104.98, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,123.70, 4,142.17, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4104.98 weekly low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4070 range floor
H1 close above the 4142.17 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 4155.49 tue high and the 61.8% fib near 4157.7 next
Repeated failures at the ema20 near 4124 keep the base under pressure
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
Fri S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations add event risk into the weekly close
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 London-session high. The main leg down came during Monday's NY session as yields and oil firmed, and since then each rally has faded: Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155 tue high and Wednesday's lower high at 4142, which sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Wed decline. Demand has stepped in three times around the 4105 weekly low, but the Asia session has pulled price back below EMA(20) at 4124, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,104.98, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,124.30, 4,142.17, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4105 weekly low breaks the flat floor and opens the path to the 4070 range floor
Recovery above the 4142 lower high and the descending trendline would end the lower-high sequence, with the 4155 tue high next
Holding back above EMA(20) at 4124 would return price to mid-range
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's PMIs could materially shift this read via yields
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 44 · price 4,114.13
Lower highs at 4190, 4155 and 4142; lows compressing 4105–4112.
Gold opened the week near 4168 and held up only through Monday's London session before NY selling, on firm yields and oil after the hot core PPI print, started the downtrend from the 4190 high. Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155 tue high was rejected, and Wednesday's rebound stalled at a 4142 lower high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's 4190–4105 drop. Wednesday NY's dip to the 4105 week low reversed sharply, but the Asia session has faded that bounce back to the 4112 asia low, with price below EMA(20) near 4126 and EMA(50) near 4131 and RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 4,112.17, 4,104.98, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,125.60, 4,142.17, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4105 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 4070 range floor next in the digest's map
H1 close above the 4142 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 4155 tue high and the 50% retracement near 4148
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) near 4126 keeps rebounds capped inside the 4105–4142 range
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift yields and this read; Fri PMIs follow
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a base above the week low · RSI 44 · price 4,122.60
Lower highs since Monday; 4105–4142 range for two sessions.
Gold has slid from Monday's London high of 4190 through the weekly open at 4168, with the decisive legs coming in NY hours as oil and 10y yields firmed the USD. A run of lower highs (4190, 4155, 4142) has capped each rebound. Since Tuesday price has compressed between the tue low near 4112 and a range top at 4141–4142, and Wednesday's NY dip under 4106 reversed into a false break of the week low after oil eased on the tanker-cargo news. Early Asia has slipped back under ema20 (~4127), near the 23.6% retracement of the Monday-to-Wednesday drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,104.98, 4,111.70, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,142.17, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4105 week low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 4070 range floor
Close above the 4142 range top breaks the lower highs trendline and puts 4155, then the 4168 weekly open, back in play
Holding back under ema20 (~4127) keeps the range-bottom rotation intact
Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the next volatility window