XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 22 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 38 · price 4,024.44
Lower highs from 4091.73; tight Asia range above 4021 day low.
Gold's oil-driven slide cut through the $4,034 low during NY hours to a 4021.14 day low, and the lower-high chain from the 4091.73 NY high is intact below a falling trendline. Early Asia is compressing in a 4023–4033 range under the 4032.66 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
A break of the 4021.14 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
An M15 close above the 4032.66 Asia high and the falling trendline breaks the intraday lower-high chain. The 4048.44 swing high, at the 38.2% fib, comes next
Oil and Middle East headlines are the main swing factor in Asia hours. Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs/lower lows through London and NY; tight Asia range above 4021 base.
The NY-session leg from 4091.7 cut through the 4034 prior low to a 4021 day low, with lower highs intact all day as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighed. The 4021 day low held three times late in NY. Early Asia session is boxed in a 4024–4033 range under EMA20 (~4031), with the asian high capping, and RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4021 day low resumes the lower-low chain, with 4000 psych next
Close above the 4032.66 asian high opens a retest of the 4048 lower high, which sits at the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
Oil / Middle East headlines during Asia hours can break the range before data
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; tight Asia range above the 4,021 day low.
Thursday printed lower highs all day. The NY selloff, driven by oil-led Fed-hike pricing, cut through the 4,034.36 broken low to a 4,021.14 day low. Early Asia session is a tight 4,023.96 asian low to 4,032.66 asian high range, capped at the 38.2% fib and ema20 (~4,031), with RSI(14) at 44 showing no extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4,034.36 broken low opens the 50–61.8% fib zone toward the 4,048.44 swing high
Failure to hold the 4,021.14 day low extends the lower-low chain, with 4,000 psych the next reference
Asian range break either side sets the first directional cue for London
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations; oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver
Lower highs from 4091.73; tight Asian base 4025.66–4032.66.
Thursday's NY session was rejected at 4091.73, then broke the 4065/4070 floor and set lower highs down to a 4021.14 day low, as oil-driven Fed hike repricing weighed on gold despite softer yields. Friday's Asia session is building a tight base from the 4025.66 asia low to the 4032.66 asia high, pressing EMA20 just under the 4034.36 prior low.
Support: 4,025.66, 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4034.36 prior low and EMA20 would mark the first reclaim since the NY breakdown
Rejection near the 4048.44 swing high, which sits at the 38.2% fib, keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 4021.14 day low resumes the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
WTI pushing through $100 is the dominant inverse driver for gold
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 39 · price 4,031.18
Lower highs and lower lows all session; tight base 4021–4031 into early Asia.
The NY-open sell-off from 4091.73 extended Thursday's lower-high chain to a 4021.14 day low, below the 4034 prior low. The digest ties the drop to oil-driven December-hike pricing, with gold falling even as yields eased. Early Asia is basing above a 4025.66 asia low, with price testing EMA20 just under 4034 and RSI(14) recovering to 39.
Support: 4,025.66, 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,040.26, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4034 prior low exposes the 23.6% NY selloff fib near 4038 and the 4040 lower high
Loss of the 4025.66 asia low and the 4021 day low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
A break above the 4048 swing high would undermine the intraday downtrend read
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus WTI headlines near $100, could materially shift this read
The NY selloff from the 4091.73 post-claims spike broke the $4,034 ten-week low (4034.36 prior low) and printed a 4021.14 swing low, as oil-driven Fed hike repricing outweighed falling yields. Early Asia session is basing in a tight 4021–4029 box with RSI(14) near 40 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 4034.36 prior low keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 4021.14 swing low exposes the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4048.44 swing high (38.2% of the NY selloff) breaks the lower-high chain
WTI moves toward $100 and Friday's 13:45 UTC PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 4102; tight base above 4021 late NY.
Each NY bounce has capped at a lower high (4091, 4064, 4048, 4031). The sequence cut through the 4034 prior low, the ten-week low cited in the digest, as oil-driven Fed hike repricing outweighed falling yields. Into the daily close, price is compressing at 4021–4029 just above the session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and not stretched.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.06, 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031 lower high breaks the LH chain and puts the 4034 prior low in play as a retest
Failure to hold the 4021 session low leaves the 4000 psych level exposed
Reclaiming the fib 38.2 at 4048, which aligns with the LH trendline zone, would shift the read toward a deeper retracement
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 33 · price 4,024.34
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; late-session box 4021–4031.
Gold extended the NY sell-off to a 4021.14 session low after cutting through the 4034 prior low, with the oil-driven December-hike repricing outweighing softer yields. Late NY has compressed into a 4021–4031 box under a 4031 lower high, RSI(14) near 33 and ATR contracting. The falling trendline from 4064.81 caps near 4033, and the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off sits at the 4048 swing high.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.06, 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4021.14 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
Close above the 4034 prior low and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 4048 swing high / 38.2% fib next
Asia session rollover may thin liquidity around the 4021–4031 box
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY shelf 4,021–4,031.
Gold broke the 4,065–4,070 range floor in London, then printed a chain of lower highs through NY (4,091 → 4,064 → 4,048) to a 4,021 session low. Oil-driven Fed-hike pricing and haven rotation into Treasuries are weighing. Late NY has compressed into a 4,021–4,031 shelf under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
Break of the 4,021 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4,000 round number
M15 close above the 4,031 minor high and the descending trendline challenges the shelf; 4,048 lower high (fib 38.2%) is next
Rejection at the 4,065 range floor (fib 61.8%) on any rebound keeps the downtrend structure intact
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 32 · price 4,024.34
Lower highs and lower lows through NY; tight late-NY base above the session low.
Gold faded from the NY high at 4091.73 through the $4,065–4,070 range floor and the earlier 4,034 low, printing a session low at 4021.14 as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighed. Lower highs at 4064.81 and 4048.44 define the lower-high trendline, and late NY is compressing in an $8 band under the 4031 minor high, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,021.14
Resistance: 4,031.10, 4,048.44, 4,065.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4021.14 session low exposes the $4,000 psych level
M15 close above the 4048.44 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Reclaim of the 4065 range floor needed to negate the downtrend read
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM 1-yr inflation expectations could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 35 · price 4,024.50
Lower-high chain from 4091.73; tight compression above the 4021 session low.
Rejection at 4091.73 after the jobless-claims beat turned into a NY-session range break through the 4065–4070 range floor, with lower highs at 4064.81, 4048.44 and the 4031 swing high marking the descent. Late NY is compressing in a roughly $8 band above the 4021 session low. RSI(14) sits near 35 and is not oversold, while the digest flags oil-driven Fed-hike fears and the 4000 psych level.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.06, 4,048.44, 4,064.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4021 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4031 swing high and then the 4048 lower high (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Range floor at 4065–4070 is the 61.8% fib and an area to watch for rejection on any rebound
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM 1y inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil/Gulf headlines remain a wildcard for sharp intraday swings
LH/LL chain from 4091.73, below the broken 4034 low.
Late NY session. Gold has printed a clean lower-high chain since the 4091.73 high made after the jobless claims beat, and has broken through the 4034.36 prior low (now the broken low) to a session low of 4021.14. Bounces are stalling under the 4031.10 lower high, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.10, 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4034.36 broken low would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 4021.14 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
A break of the lower-high trendline from 4091.73, with fib 38.2 at 4048.44 reclaimed, would challenge the downtrend read
Oil/Iran headlines and Fri 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact into late NY · RSI 35 · price 4,023.06
LH/LL chain, trading below the broken 4034 low.
Gold has posted lower highs at 4091.73, 4064.81 and 4048.44 through London and NY, slipping under the 4034.36 broken low to a session low of 4021.14 late in the NY session. The move fits the digest's oil-driven Fed-hike repricing. RSI(14) near 35 is not stretched, and the falling trendline sits overhead.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,048.44, 4,064.81
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4034.36 broken low would mark the break below the ten-week low as a false break
Close above the 4048.44 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Loss of the 4021.14 session low leaves the 4000 round number as the next reference
A retrace into the 61.8% fib at 4064.81 would retest the prior range floor area
Oil or US-Iran headlines in the Asia session have driven $30-40 bounces before; Fri PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4091.7; Asian range low broken in London, fresh session low in late NY.
A lower-high chain from 4091.7 carried gold through the 4034.4 prior low (the ten-week low) to a session low at 4021.1 in late NY, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighing lower yields. Price is now pressing the descending lower-highs trendline near 4029, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 4,021.10, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.40, 4,048.40, 4,064.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4034.4 prior low and the lower-highs trendline breaks the LH chain, with the 4048.4 lower high next overhead
Failure to hold the 4021.1 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Fib 61.8 at 4064.8 matches the 14:45 UTC lower high, so a recovery would meet it as the upper reference
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4091.73 swing; 4034.36 prior low broken.
Late NY session pushed through the 4034.36 broken low to a 4021.26 session low. Lower highs at 4064.81, 4048.44 and the 4031.06 minor high keep the descending trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 28. The slide fits the digest's liquidation read, with gold sliding even as yields eased, and the 4000 psych level is the next round number below.
Support: 4,021.26, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.06, 4,034.36, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4034.36 broken low would flag a false break of the ten-week low
Close above the 4048.44 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4021.26 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
61.8% fib of the 4091.73–4021.26 drop sits at ~4064.8, aligned with the broken 4065-4070 floor
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oil and Iran headlines have driven $30-40 intraday snaps
LH/LL sequence through London and NY; fresh session low below 10-week low.
Gold has printed lower highs at 4091, 4064 and 4048 since the 4065 range floor broke, and late NY set a session low at 4025.74, just below the 4034 10-week low. Oil-driven Fed-hike pricing is outweighing lower Treasury yields. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not oversold, and the descending trendline off the lower highs is still capping bounces.
Support: 4,025.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,048.44, 4,065.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4034 10-week low would turn the late-NY push into a false break
Reclaiming the 4048 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the LH/LL sequence
Loss of the 4025.74 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
61.8% of the NY sell-off fib sits near 4066, in line with the 4065 range floor
Oil or US-Iran headlines in Asia, then Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could reprice Fed-hike odds
LH/LL chain through NY session, price pressing the session low late in NY hours.
The early-NY spike to 4091.73 after the jobless claims beat met rejection. Since then gold has printed lower highs at 4064.81, just under the broken range floor, and 4048.44, with a fresh session low at 4025.74 late in NY hours as oil-driven hike pricing keeps the haven bid absent. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme. The descending lower-high line and the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib (~4051) sit together overhead.
Support: 4,025.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,064.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4048.44 lower high breaks the LH chain and tests the 38.2% NY sell-off fib near 4051
Failure to hold the 4025.74 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
Reclaim of 4064.81 puts price back at the broken 4065-4070 range floor
Oil or Middle East de-escalation headlines could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce off the lows
US PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending into late NY · RSI 28 · price 4,029.17
Lower highs at 4064.81 and 4048.44, fresh session low 4028.66.
Gold slid from 4140 through Asia, then lost the 4065 range floor during London on oil-driven Fed hike pricing. NY has printed lower highs at 4064.81 and 4048.44 and a fresh session low at 4028.66 late in the session. RSI(14) is near 28 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,028.66, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,034.36, 4,048.44, 4,064.81
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4034.36 broken low would stall the latest leg
Close above the 4048.44 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4028.66 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next reference
Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain through London and NY; fresh session low late NY.
Gold slid from the 4091.73 pre-NY high after London broke the 4080-4093 range, extending below the $4,065-4,070 floor as oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed the haven bid. The descending lower-high trendline capped rallies at 4064.81 and the 4048.44 swing high, and the late NY session printed a fresh session low at 4031.94 with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 4,031.94
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4048.44 swing high and the lower-high trendline would break the LH sequence
Recovery toward the 4064.81 lower high lines up with the 50-61.8% zone of the NY selloff fib (4062-4069)
Failure to hold the 4031.94 session low leaves the $4,000 psych level in view
A move back above the 4091.73 pre-NY high would undo the intraday range break
Oil / Middle East headlines in thin post-London trade; Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4102.81; price pressing NY session low.
Lower highs at 4102.81, 4091.73, 4064.81 and 4048.44 since the Asian flush. NY faded the post-claims bounce from the 4091.73 NY high and broke the 4065–4070 range floor, the move the digest ties to oil-led Fed hike pricing. Late in the NY session, price sits back on the 4034.36 session low; RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
A break of the 4034.36 session low extends the lower-low chain, with 4000 psych the next round level
An M15 close above the 4048.44 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the LH/LL sequence
A reclaim of the 4065 broken floor (61.8% of the NY leg) invalidates the downtrend read; the 4091.73 NY high caps above
Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus oil and Gulf headlines, could trigger sharp short-covering spikes
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the NY high, price back at the session low.
Gold extended its slide through NY on oil-driven Fed hike pricing. The decline has printed lower highs at the 4091.73 NY high, 4064.81 and 4048.44. The late-session bounce off the 4034.36 session low met rejection at the 4048.44 swing high, and price is back on that low after London close with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4034.36 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4000 psych level the next reference
Close above the 4048.44 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 4064.81 lower high sits just under the broken 4065-4070 range floor
Oil and Middle East headlines are the dominant driver; de-escalation news has produced sharp bounces this week
Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs all session; tight 4034–4048 box under falling ema20.
Gold printed lower highs all day as oil-driven hike pricing weighed. London's range broke lower, and the post-claims bounce saw rejection at the 4091.73 claims high. NY then extended to a 4034.36 session low. Late NY is now a tight consolidation below the 4048.44 range top and the falling ema20 near 4051, with RSI(14) near 37 and not stretched.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.44, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4048.44 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the late-NY consolidation
Failure to hold the 4034.36 session low extends the downtrend, with 4000 psych the next round figure
Reclaim of the 4064.81 swing high puts the 50–61.8% fib and the broken 4065–4070 range floor back in play
Oil and Middle East headlines in thin Asia hours can trigger sharp short-covering spikes; Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows since 4091.73; price pressing the descending trendline.
London broke the Asian range low at 4066.81 and the 4065-4070 range floor, with oil-driven Fed hike pricing weighing. The 4091.73 high was rejected around the claims beat, and NY extended to a 4034.36 session low. The late-NY bounce has carried price back to the descending trendline off the 4064.81 lower high, with the 38.2% fib at 4056 overhead and a micro low at 4040.
Support: 4,040.06, 4,034.36
Resistance: 4,056.30, 4,064.81, 4,070.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and 4056 (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4064.81 lower high and the 4065-4070 range floor invalidates the downtrend read
Loss of the 4040 micro low and the 4034.36 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 4000 psych
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver into a thin post-NY tape
Lower highs from 4091.73 intact; 4050.87 lower high still capping.
Gold broke the 4065-4070 range floor at the NY open as oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed any haven bid. It then printed a session low at 4034.36 after London close. The late bounce has lifted price above the lower-highs line from 4064.81, but the 4050.87 lower high still caps and RSI(14) sits near 39.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,050.87, 4,064.81, 4,070.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4050.87 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
4063-4064.81 swing high (fib 50%) and the 4070 range floor are the next supply area on any extension
Failure to hold the 4034.36 session low puts the 4000 psych level in view
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver into Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4091.73 rejection; session low 4034.36.
Gold was rejected at 4091.73 after the claims beat, then broke the London low at 4057.50 at the NY open and extended to a 4034.36 session low as oil-driven hike pricing pressured bullion. Late NY shows a small bounce, but the lower-high chain at 4064.81 swing high and 4050.87 lower high is intact, and price holds below the broken 4065-4070 range floor.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,050.87, 4,064.81, 4,070.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4050.87 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4064.81 swing high and the 4070 range floor (61.8% fib zone) would undo the range-break read
Failure to hold the 4034.36 session low extends the move toward 4000 psych
Oil and Middle East headlines could trigger sharp intraday swings; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk
LH/LL chain from 4140 since Asia; NY printing fresh session lows.
Gold has posted lower highs and lower lows from 4140 since the Asia open. Oil-driven hike pricing kept it heavy: the claims high at 4091.73 was rejected back through the London lows, and NY extended to a 4034.36 session low after London close. RSI(14) is near 29 with price below both EMAs, and the latest lower high at 4064.81 sits at the broken 4065-4070 range floor, close to the 61.8% fib of the claims-high leg.
Support: 4,034.36, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,044.75, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
Break below the 4034.36 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
M15 close back above the 4044.75 prior low would stall the sequence; a move through the 4064.81 lower high breaks the LH/LL structure
Oil and Middle East de-escalation headlines have triggered sharp short-covering bounces this week
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London break of 4070.
Gold is grinding to a fresh session low at 4039.55 late in the NY session, now below the 4044.75 prior low. Lower highs have capped every bounce since London lost the 4070 range floor, with oil-driven Fed hike pricing keeping bullion heavy. RSI(14) sits near 30, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,039.55, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,044.75, 4,064.81, 4,070.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4044.75 prior low would turn the new session low into a false break
Close above the 4064.81 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain, with the 4070 range floor just above
Failure to hold the 4039.55 session low leaves 4000 psych as the next round number
Oil and Gulf headlines: de-escalation has produced sharp short-covering bounces this week
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 4065-4070 range floor.
Gold extended its oil-driven slide through the NY session, breaking the 4065-4070 range floor after a rejection at the 4091.73 swing high and printing a session low at 4043.44. Lower highs at 4091.73 and 4064.81 define the sequence. RSI(14) sits near 34, not oversold, with price below both EMAs and recent bars compressing just above the low.
Support: 4,043.44, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,064.81, 4,070.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4064.81 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4065-4070 range floor (fib 50%) in retest
Failure to hold the 4043.44 session low extends the lower-low chain, with 4000 psych the next round-number reference
Reclaim of the 4091.73 swing high would negate the NY downtrend leg
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver and can trigger sharp counter-moves
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4064.81 compressing into the 4044.75 session low.
Gold spiked to a claims high at 4091.73 after the 194K jobless-claims beat, then broke down through the 4057.50 London low into a 4044.75 session low. That low was retested at 4044.95 late in the NY session after London close. Lower highs since the 4064.81 range floor keep price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 32 and oil-driven hike pricing weighing on the metal.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,057.50, 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
A clean break of the 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4000 psych level the next round number below
An M15 close back above the 4057.50 London low and the lower highs trendline would stall the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 4064.81 range floor neutralises the sequence; the 4091.73 claims high is the 61.8% fib zone cap above
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver, and de-escalation news has produced sharp bounces this week
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 33 · price 4,051.11
Lower highs below the broken Asian range low; tight 4045–4065 band in late NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 4066.81. Early NY then faded the 4091.73 claims high after the 194K jobless print and printed a 4044.75 day low, with oil-driven hike pricing outweighing the haven bid. After London close, price is compressing between the 4049.14 ny low and the 4064.81 bounce high, a rejection near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 33 below both EMAs.
Support: 4,049.14, 4,044.75
Resistance: 4,064.81, 4,070.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4064.81 bounce high and the 4070 range floor breaks the ny lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4049.14 ny low and 4044.75 day low extends the lower-low chain, with 4000 psych the next round number
Reclaim of the 4091.73 claims high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Oil and Middle East headlines could materially shift this read; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk
LH/LL chain below the broken 4070 range floor, mid-NY session.
Gold lost 4100 in the Asia session, then broke the London range to 4057.5. The post-claims high at 4091.73 capped the bounce, and the NY open drove a fresh session low at 4044.75. The rebound stalled at a 4064.81 lower high, near the 38.2% of that leg and under the broken 4070 range floor, as oil-driven hike pricing outweighs the haven bid.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,064.81, 4,070.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4064.81 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain; reclaiming the 4070 range floor would undercut the breakdown read
Failure at 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Oil and Gulf/Middle East headlines remain the dominant swing factor; de-escalation has produced sharp bounces this week
Post-claims high at 4091.73 is the level that would neutralise today's sell-off structure
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending in NY session · RSI 37 · price 4,051.32
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce capped below broken range floor.
The post-claims pop faded from the 4091.73 claims high, and the NY session drop printed a session low at 4044.75. The digest attributes the pressure to oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighing the haven bid. The bounce stalled at the 4064.81 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of that drop and just under the broken 4065-4070 range floor; RSI(14) sits near 37 with the lower-high chain intact.
Support: 4,050.00, 4,044.75
Resistance: 4,064.81, 4,070.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low chain; price is already pressing the 4050 round number
Reclaim of the 4064.81 bounce high and the 4065-4070 range floor would break the lower-high sequence
Oil and Gulf headlines remain the dominant driver; de-escalation news has produced sharp short-covering spikes this week
Fri 13:45-14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk to this read
LH/LL chain; bounce capped under broken range floor.
Gold lost the Asian range low at 4066.81 in London. The post-claims spike to the 4091.73 lower high failed, and NY hours printed a session low at 4044.75, with oil-driven hike pricing outweighing the haven bid. The retest of the broken floor was rejected at 4064.81, inside the 38.2–50% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around $11.8 per bar.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,064.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4065–4070 broken floor neutralises the lower-high chain
Close above the 4091.73 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Oil and Middle East headlines have produced sharp short-covering spikes; one could reclaim the 50% fib quickly
Lower highs and lower lows; London range broken lower.
Gold broke the 4080–4100 London range and the 4066.81 asian low during NY hours, printing a 4044.75 session low. Oil-driven Fed hike pricing outweighed easing yields. The post-claims bounce stalled at a 4091.73 lower high, and price is now retesting the 38.2% of the NY drop just below the asian low, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,091.73, 4,100.85
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4066.81 asian low reclaims the broken range floor and weakens the downtrend read
Break of the 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 4000 psych
Close above the falling lower highs trendline and the 4091.73 lower high, then the 4100.85 london high, would break the descending structure
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver and could trigger sharp intraday reversals
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 42 · price 4,059.03
Lower highs and lower lows; range floor broken.
Gold slid through Asia and London, and the post-claims spike to 4091.73 printed another lower high before the NY open reversed it to a 4044.75 session low as oil-driven Fed hike pricing weighed. The bounce is capped at the 4061.31 bounce high, below the 38.2% retrace of that leg, and price is back on the 4057.50 london low.
Support: 4,057.50, 4,044.75
Resistance: 4,061.31, 4,070.00, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4065-4070 range floor and the 50% retrace (~4068) would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4057.50 london low reopens the 4044.75 session low
A break of 4044.75 extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych level
A push through the 4091.73 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Oil and Middle East headlines are the dominant intraday driver; de-escalation news has triggered sharp rebounds this week
Friday's 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled data risk
Lower-high/lower-low chain; NY broke below 4057.50.
The 12:45 UTC bounce after the claims beat capped at the 4091.73 swing high, a fresh lower high. The first hour of NY then broke the 4057.50 prior low and set a 4044.75 session low, with oil-driven Fed hike pricing keeping gold heavy below the broken 4065-4070 floor around the 4066.81 Asian low. RSI(14) sits at 36, not stretched; the last bar is a small bounce off the low.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,057.50, 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4044.75 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with 4000 psych the next round number.
Reclaim of the 4057.50 prior low, then the 4066.81 asian low near the 50% fib of the NY drop, would stall the downtrend read.
A break of the lower-high trendline near 4086 and the 4091.73 swing high invalidates the lower-high structure.
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver and can trigger sharp short-covering spikes.
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia, range floor lost.
Gold has printed lower highs since Asia. London broke the 4066.81 asian low and the 4065-4070 range floor, and the bounce after the claims beat stalled at a 4091.73 lower high. The NY open extended the selloff leg to a 4044.75 session low, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold as oil-driven hike pricing weighs.
Support: 4,044.75, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,057.50, 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
Holding below the 4057.50 london low keeps the lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close back above the 4066.81 asian low (50% of the NY selloff leg fib) would mark the range break as a false break
A break of the 4044.75 session low leaves the 4000 psych level as the next round-number reference
Oil and Middle East headlines can trigger sharp short-covering spikes against the trend
Lower highs since 4102.81; NY rejected 4091.73 and broke the London low.
The first NY-hour bounce stalled at the 4091.73 ny high after the claims beat. Price then broke the 4057.50 london low to a 4054.13 session low, below the asian low and the 4065–4070 range floor, as oil-driven hike pricing weighs. The lower highs chain from 4102.81 is intact, and RSI(14) at ~32 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,054.13, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,057.50, 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4057.50 london low would mark the break below it as a false break
Reclaim of the 4066.81 asian low and the 4065–4070 range floor, which aligns with the 38.2–50% of the ny leg fib, would weaken the downtrend read
A move above the lower highs trendline near 4090 and the ny high at 4091.73 breaks the sequence
Acceptance below the 4054.13 session low and the 4050 round number extends the leg, with 4000 the next psych level
Gulf/oil headlines can trigger sharp short-covering spikes; ATR ~11.50 (1150 pips) per bar
Lower-high / lower-low chain; fresh session low early in NY.
Gold extended the Asia-session slide from 4140. The post-claims bounce in the first hour of NY was capped at 4091.73, a lower high, before a fresh session low at 4054.69, back below the 4066.81 Asia low and the broken 4065-4070 range floor. Oil-driven hike pricing is doing the work. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 4,054.69, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4066.81 (Asia low / range floor) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Acceptance below the 4050 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the session low
A break of the lower-highs trendline and 4091.73 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Oil and Gulf headlines remain the dominant driver; de-escalation has produced sharp short-covering bounces this week
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; 4057.50–4091.73 swing in play.
Lower highs since the Asia session took gold through the 4066.81 Asian low to a 4057.50 London low as oil-led Fed hike pricing weighed. The bounce through the 12:30 UTC claims release stalled at 4091.73, a lower high near the 78.6% retrace of the London drop. Price is back under EMA20 and sitting on the 4074.67 NY low, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,074.67, 4,066.81, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,091.73, 4,100.93
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4074.67 ny low exposes the 4066.81 asian low, then the 4057.50 london low
Failure to hold 4057.50 extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych zone flagged in the digest
Reclaim of 4091.73 and the lower-high line breaks the downtrend sequence; 4100.93 london high sits just above
Gulf and oil headlines are the near-term swing factor; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs lie beyond this session
Lower highs; London range broken lower, failed retest of range top.
Gold broke the London range (4080–4101) late in the session and extended the oil-driven slide to a 4057.50 session low. The early-NY bounce after the claims beat stalled at the 4091.70 NY high, just under the old range top, and price is back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) around $10.
Support: 4,070.00, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,091.70, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 4065–4070 range floor, which lines up with the 61.8% level of the bounce fib, keeps the bounce structure intact; losing it reopens the 4057.50 session low
An M15 close above the 4091.70 NY high and the 4100 round number would negate the lower-high sequence
Oil and Gulf headlines remain the dominant driver this session and can trigger sharp short-covering spikes
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 4,082.33
Lower highs from 4102.81; London low reclaimed, rebound capped below 4100.
Late London broke the 4066.81 Asian low to a 4057.50 session low on Gulf escalation and oil. The low was reclaimed into the 12:30 UTC claims print (194K beat), but the NY high at 4091.73 stalled at the 61.8% retrace, short of the 4100.93 London high and the 4100 round number. The current bar is fading back toward the 50% level near 4080, early in the NY session.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,091.73, 4,100.93
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4066.81 asian low turns the London break into a lower-low sequence toward the 4057.50 session low
M15 close above the 4100.93 london high breaks the lower-high chain from 4102.81
Failure to clear the 4091.73 ny high keeps the rebound framed as a retrace of the 4102.81–4057.50 leg
US-Iran or Hormuz headlines moving oil could shift this read abruptly, as Tuesday's squeeze showed
Lower highs from 4102.81; false break below 4066.81 reclaimed.
London broke the 4080–4094 range lower and ran through the early low at 4066.81 to a session low of 4057.50, extending the oil- and Fed-driven slide. Price has since reclaimed that break into the 12:30 UTC jobless claims window and is pressing the 61.8% fib near 4085.5. The lower-highs line from the 4102.81 swing high still caps the move.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,085.50, 4,093.90, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
Close back below 4066.81 (early low) turns the reclaim into a failed bounce and reopens 4057.50 (session low)
Rejection at 4085.5 (61.8% fib) keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Close above 4093.9 (range top) and the lower-highs line puts 4102.81 (swing high) in play
Fri S&P Global PMIs 13:45 UTC and Middle East or oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4102.81; bounce testing the broken 4066-4077 zone.
Gold has printed lower highs from 4102.81 through London. It broke the 4066.81 asian low to a 4057.50 session low as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighed. The bounce is now testing the 4076.85 rebound high near the 50% drop retrace of the move from 4092.49, with EMA20 at about 4079 overhead and RSI(14) near 40 as jobless claims land in the current bar.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,076.85, 4,092.49, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4066.81 asian low re-exposes the 4057.50 session low
M15 close above the 4076.85 rebound high and EMA20 (~4079) puts the 61.8% drop retrace and the lower highs trendline in play
Reclaim of the 4092.49 lower high and the 4100 cap at 4102.81 would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) prints in the current bar and could push range beyond the ~880-pip ATR
London range broken lower; corrective bounce below the broken range floor.
Gold's London range (4080–4101) gave way late in the session. The break extended the lower-low chain to a 4057.50 session low as gold probed its $4,065–4,070 three-month floor despite a softer USD. The bounce into the London-NY transition stalled at 4076.85, below the broken range floor and near 38.2% of the drop from the 4102.81 swing high, leaving the 4066.81 swing low as the first shelf.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,057.50
Resistance: 4,080.00, 4,092.49, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4080 range floor turns the break into a false break
Close above the 4092.49 lower high breaks the descending-highs line
Failure to hold the 4057.50 session low confirms another lower-low
Oil/Hormuz headlines have driven sharp $25–35 swings this week
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower into NY open · RSI 28 · price 4,059.66
London 4080-4100 range broken lower, lower-low chain intact.
Gold lost the 4080 range floor that held through London and slid through the asia low at 4066.81 into the 4065-4070 three-month floor zone. It printed a session low at 4057.50 as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeps the metal heavy. A retest into 4066-4069 on the 11:45 UTC bar was met with rejection, and RSI(14) is near 28, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,057.50, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,080.00, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below the 4057.50 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 round number
A recovery back above the asia low at 4066.81 would mark the break as a false break
A reclaim of the 4080 range floor, near the 50% fib of the drop, reopens the 4102.81 range high
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower into late London · RSI 33 · price 4,062.54
London range broken lower, new session low under the Asian low.
After the Asia session slide from 4140 to the 4066.81 asian low, London held a 4080–4101 range under lower highs, then late London broke the range floor and the Asian low to print a session low at 4058.71. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 33. The break tracks the oil-driven Fed-hike pricing in the digest, pushing through the $4,065–4,070 floor.
Support: 4,058.71, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,066.81, 4,079.90, 4,100.85
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands before NY open and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4058.71 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 round number
A reclaim of the 4066.81 asian low would mark the break as a false break
The 61.8% of the drop fib (~4079.6) sits at the 4079.90 range floor. Lower highs from 4102.81 cap below the 4100.85 range top
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, late London leg lower · RSI 33 · price 4,068.65
Lower highs; 4080 range floor broken, pressing spike low.
The overnight slide from 4140 resumed late in the London session. Lower highs off the 4102.81 rebound high capped a 4080–4100 range before price broke the 4080 range floor, and it is now pressing the 4066.81 spike low near the ~3-month floor, with RSI(14) at 33. Oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeps gold heavy despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,066.81, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,080.00, 4,092.50, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4066.81 spike low extends the downtrend toward the 4050 round number
A recovery back above the 4080 range floor would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 4092.5 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), just after NY open, could materially shift this read
London range 4080–4094 giving way below; lower highs since the sweep-low bounce.
Asia's slide from 4140 swept the 4,065–4,070 floor at the 4066.81 sweep low before a sharp rejection. The rebound stalled at the 4102.81 bounce high, and London has since printed lower highs below the 4093.94 london high. Mid-London, price is pressing through the ~4080 london low with RSI(14) near 40, in line with the digest's oil-driven hike-fear tone.
Support: 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,080.00, 4,093.94, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4080 london low confirms the London range break and puts the 4066.81 sweep low back in play
Failure to hold the 4066.81 sweep low exposes the $4,000 psych level
Close above the lower-highs line and the 4093.94 london high breaks the lower-high sequence; 4102.81 bounce high sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after flush · RSI 48 · price 4,091.34
Asia sweep low at 4066.81 rejected; London range 4080–4101 with rising lows.
Asia extended the slide from 4140 and swept the 4065–4070 floor to a 4066.81 sweep low before a sharp rejection to the 4102.81 rebound high. Oil-driven hike fears are keeping gold heavy. London has compressed between the 4079.90 london low and lower highs near 4094, holding below the 38.2% of the Asia drop (~4095.6) on rising lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.94, 4,102.81, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4094 lower highs and the 4102.81 rebound high opens the 4108 asia shelf
Break of the rising lows and the 4079.90 london low re-exposes the 4066.81 sweep low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the London compression
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant intraday swing factor
Lower highs into 4080–4094 London range below 4100.
Asia bled from 4139 through 4100 into a sweep of 4066.81, the session low, that was rejected. The sweep bounce stalled at 4102.81, near the 38.2% fib of the 4142–4067 drop. London has printed lower highs under the 4100.93 London high and the 4100 pivot, with the London low at 4079.9 holding so far. The digest frames gold as heavy below $4,100 on oil-driven Fed hike bets, despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.90, 4,100.93, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 4094 lower highs breaks the London compression
Failure to hold the 4079.9 London low puts the 4066.81 session low back in play
Reclaiming the 4100.93 London high and the 4102.81 sweep bounce shifts the intraday read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range either way
Oil and US-Iran headlines: gold is trading inverse to crude
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 46 · price 4,087.40
Lower highs below $4,100 after a sweep low at 4066.81.
Asia session unwound from 4140 to a sweep low at 4066.81, just under the $4,065/4,070 range floor, as oil-driven hike bets kept gold offered. The rebound stalled at 4102.81 near the 50% fib and the 4100 pivot. London has since compressed between the london low at 4079.90 and a lower high at 4093.94.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.94, 4,107.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4079.90 london low puts the 4066.81 sweep low back in play
A close above the 4093.94 lower high and the 4100 pivot breaks the lower-high chain; the asia floor at 4107.64 sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines: gold is trading inversely to crude intraday
Lower highs pressing a flat 4080–4082 London shelf.
The Asian slide swept to a 4066.81 asian low, just under the 4065–4070 range floor, before snapping back. The bounce high at 4102.81 stalled shy of the 50% of the asian drop fib as firming Fed-hike pricing kept the rally shallow despite a softer USD. Mid-London, price is printing lower highs along a falling trendline into a 4080–4082 shelf, with the 4079.90 session low the floor of that shelf and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.90, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4079.90 session low breaks the London shelf and reopens the 4066.81 asian low
Close above the 4093.90 lower high and falling trendline invalidates the compression read; 4102.81 bounce high is next
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs in London, compressing in a 4080–4101 band.
Gold slid through the Asia session from the 4142 prior-day high to a 4066.8 asia low, just above the 4,065–4,070 range floor. A sharp rejection there lifted price to 4102.8, about the 50% level of the Asia decline fib, as firming Fed-hike pricing kept pressure on. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 4079.9 london low and a 4094 london cap, with lower highs off the 4100.9 london high and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,079.90, 4,066.80
Resistance: 4,094.00, 4,100.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4079.9 london low reopens the 4066.8 asia low and the 4,065 range floor
Close above the 4094 london cap and the 4100.9 london high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia decline fib back in play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), around NY open, could materially shift this read
The Asia session extended the slide from 4140 and swept the 4065-4070 monthly floor to the 4066.81 sweep low. The rebound met rejection at the 4102.81 bounce high, the 50% level of the Asia drop fib. Early London is printing lower highs near 4094 and pressing the 4081 London low, with gold heavy on oil-driven Fed-hike pricing despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,081.40, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.90, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 4081.4 London low exposes the 4066.81 sweep low
An M15 close below the 4066.81 sweep low confirms a lower-low through the monthly floor
Closes above the 4094 lower highs, then the 4102.81 bounce high (50% of the Asia drop fib), would invalidate the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asia ground lower from 4140 into a 05:45 UTC sweep of the $4,065–4,070 monthly low at 4066.81, with a sharp rejection back to 4090 as hike-driven selling paused. London has been capped at the 4101 london high, near the 50% retrace of the Asia drop, while the 4082 london low sits as a higher low; price is just under EMA20.
Support: 4,081.91, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,101.00, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4101 london high and 50% fib opens the 4108 breakdown level from Asia
Loss of the 4082 london low and the higher-low trendline re-exposes the 4066.81 sweep low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after sweep · RSI 46 · price 4,088.05
Post-sweep compression below lower highs.
Asia sold steadily from 4142 through the prior low at 4104.98 and swept to 4066.81 near the monthly floor before snapping back. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 4103, and early London is compressing between the london low at 4081.91 and the london high at 4100.93 under a line of lower highs, below EMA20. Hike pricing and firm oil are keeping gold pinned near the range floor despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,081.91, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,100.93, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
Close below the london low at 4081.91 reopens the sweep low at 4066.81 and the 4065-4070 monthly floor
Reclaim of the london high and the prior low at 4104.98 breaks the lower-highs line and the 50% fib
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 4102.81 after sweep low at 4066.81.
Late Asia swept into the monthly-low zone at a 4066.81 sweep low and bounced to a 4102.81 session high. Early London has printed lower highs at 4100.93 and 4092.52 and is now pressing the 4082.16 London low, near the 61.8% of the bounce fib at 4080.6. RSI(14) is near 42 with price below both EMAs. Hike-driven selling is the backdrop, with gold heavy despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,082.16, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,092.52, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4082.16 london low exposes the 4066.81 sweep low and the 4065-4070 monthly floor
Close back above the 4092.52 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 4102.81 session high is the next cap
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4142; post-sweep range 4084–4103.
The Asia session extended the slide from 4142 through the 4108 breakdown, then swept the monthly floor to a 4066.81 sweep low before snapping back. Since then price has held a 4084–4103 range into early London, with the range top capping near the 38.2% retrace as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeps gold heavy despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,084.23, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4084.23 london low reopens the 4066.81 sweep low and the monthly floor
Close above the 4102.81 range top and 4108 breakdown level breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high chain into a 4066.81 spike low; early London holding a 4087–4103 range.
Asia bled from 4140 to a 4066.81 spike low at the monthly floor as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed a softer USD, and the low was rejected sharply within the bar. Early London is holding a 4087–4103 range below the prior low at 4105, with the rebound capped near the 50% retrace of the Asia decline and RSI(14) neutral at ~46.
Support: 4,087.50, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.80, 4,105.00, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4087.5 range low reopens the 4066.81 spike low and the monthly floor
Close above the 4102.8 range top and the 4105 prior low opens the path to the 4123.89 asia lh
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off the session low · RSI 48 · price 4,094.05
Lower highs through Asia, sweep and rejection at the monthly floor, now a 4087–4103 coil.
Asia sold gold off from 4140 into the 4065–70 monthly floor. Oil-driven Fed-hike bets drove the move. A sweep to the 4066.81 session low at 05:45 UTC was rejected sharply, but the rebound high at 4102.81 stalled just under the 50% fib. Into London open, price is coiling between the 4087 pullback low and that cap, just below EMA20.
Support: 4,087.10, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81
What it said to watch
Close above the 4102.81 rebound high and the 50% fib opens the 4116–4118 breakdown shelf and the descending trendline
Loss of the 4087 pullback low exposes the 4066.81 session low and monthly floor again
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia; sweep of 4066.81 reclaimed, rebound capped at 4102.81.
Asia extended the slide from 4142 and swept the monthly low at 4066.81 before reclaiming 4090. The rebound stalled at the 4102.81 bounce high, just under the 50% retrace of the selloff, while hike pricing keeps pressure on the range floor. Early London is holding above the 4087.44 swing low, with price sitting just over EMA20 and under EMA50.
Support: 4,087.44, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4102.81 bounce high and the 4108 breakdown level breaks the Asia downtrend line and invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4087.44 swing low reopens the 4066.81 monthly low; a close below it confirms the sweep failed
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4140; sweep of 4066.81 rejected, now basing 4087–4103.
Asia sold off from 4140 to a sweep of the 4066.81 session low just above the $4,070 range floor. Fed-hike pricing on oil-driven inflation is outweighing a soft USD. The spike was rejected hard, but the rebound high at 4102.81 sits at the 61.8% fib and price is drifting back to 4090 into London open, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,087.12, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81, 4,107.42, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4087 higher low reopens the 4066.81 session low and the $4,070 floor
Close above 4102.81 and the descending line near the 4107 broken low turns the read to a deeper retracement toward the 4123.89 lower high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and any US-Iran / oil headline could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4142; sweep of 4070 floor reclaimed, bounce capped below 4105.
The Asia drop from the 4142 high broke the 4104.98 prior low at 03:15 UTC and swept the 4070 range floor to a 4066.81 session low before a sharp reclaim, with Fed-hike pricing on oil still weighing on gold. The rebound met rejection at the 4102.81 bounce high, under the round number 4100 shelf and the prior low near the 50% retrace. Price is drifting at 4090 into London open, keeping the lower highs sequence intact.
Support: 4,085.69, 4,070.00, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,102.81, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4104.98 prior low and 50% Asia drop retrace breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4085.69 swing low re-exposes the 4070 range floor and 4066.81 session low
ATR(14) near 800 pips after the sweep; London open may extend the range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 41 · price 4,093.22
Lower highs through Asia; sweep below the 4070 range floor reclaimed, bounce capped near prior-day low.
Asia session sold off steadily from 4140, briefly sweeping the 4070 range floor to a 4066.81 sweep low before a sharp reclaim toward 4100 as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing kept gold heavy. The bounce high at 4102.81 stalled just under the prior-day low near 4105 and the 50% retrace of the Asia sell-off. Price now sits on the 4088 asia base heading into London open.
Support: 4,088.00, 4,070.00, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,102.81, 4,105.00, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4088 asia base reopens the 4070 range floor and 4066.81 sweep low
Acceptance above 4105 prior-day low breaks the lower-high chain and targets the 4123.89 asia swing and downtrend line
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
US-Iran or oil headlines remain a source of sharp intraday reversals
Lower highs through Asia; false break below 4070 floor reclaimed.
Asia extended the slide from 4140 to a 4066.81 sweep low just below the $4,070 range floor, with Fed-hike risk from oil still weighing on gold. Two bars later price had reclaimed the 4085–4088 asia shelf and is now pressing 4100, with EMA20 flat at the market and RSI(14) near 44. The prior low at 4104.98, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 4142–4067 leg, is the first cap. The descending trendline of lower highs from 4123.89 sits just above it.
Support: 4,085.69, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4105 prior low / 50% fib brings the lower-highs trendline near 4112 into play, then the 4123.89 lower high
Return below the 4085.7 asia shelf puts the 4066.81 sweep low and the $4,070 floor back in play
London open in about 45 minutes is likely to set the session range around this 4100 test
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4142; sweep below 4070 reclaimed.
The Asia session extended the slide from yesterday's 4142 high. Price broke the 4105 prior low and the 4100 psych level as Fed-hike risk outweighs a soft USD. The 05:30–05:45 UTC sweep to the 4066.81 session low, just under the 4070 range floor, was rejected on the same bar, and price is back at the 4087–4093 shelf ahead of London open, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 4124–4067 drop.
Support: 4,070.00, 4,066.81
Resistance: 4,093.36, 4,100.00, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 4070 range floor would turn the sweep into a lower low and put the 4066.81 session low in play
An M15 close above the 4093 shelf high and 4100 psych opens the 50–61.8% fib zone up to the 4105 prior low
The lower highs trendline from 4142 sits near 4110; the downtrend read holds while price stays beneath it
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
05:48 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into late Asia · RSI 15 · price 4,068.62
Lower highs since 4142; Wednesday low and 4100 broken.
Gold has printed lower highs through the Asia session since repeated rejection at 4141–4142 on Wednesday. Price lost the 4105 Wednesday low and the 4100 psych level at 03:00 UTC, built a prior shelf around 4088–4093, then flushed at 05:30 UTC to a 4068 session low. That move pierces the 4070 range floor flagged in the macro digest, with RSI(14) near 15. The digest ties the selling to oil-fed Fed-hike pricing, which is outweighing a soft USD.
Support: 4,068.06, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,070.00, 4,088.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
M15 closes holding below the 4070 range floor confirm the break; the 4050 round number is the next reference below
Recovery back above the 4088 prior shelf would mark the flush as a false break of the range floor
Reclaiming the 4100 psych level breaks the lower-highs sequence
London open in ~75 min likely defines the new session range with RSI(14) deeply oversold
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but no reversal yet · RSI 26 · price 4,085.97
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; Asian range low broken, grinding at session low.
The Asia drop from the 4142 NY high broke the Asian range low near 4107, then cleared yesterday's prior low at 4104.98 and the 4100 psych handle. Price is now pressing a fresh session low at 4085 under a tight micro high at 4093, with RSI(14) near 26. Gold is ignoring the soft USD as oil-fed Fed-hike pricing dominates.
Support: 4,085.29, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,093.36, 4,100.00, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4085 session low exposes the 4070 range floor flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 4093 micro high, then the 4100 psych and 4105 prior low, would negate the breakdown
38.2% retrace of the Asia drop near 4107 lines up with the broken Asian lows
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling at lows · RSI 16 · price 4,087.77
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; yesterday's NY low broken.
The Asia selloff from yesterday's 4142 late-NY high broke the 4105 prior low and the 4100 round number around 03:15 UTC. Price is now compressing at the 4087 session low under a 4093 lower high, with RSI(14) near 16. Oil-driven Fed-hike pricing is keeping gold heavy despite a soft USD, and the 4070 range floor sits below.
Support: 4,087.43, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,092.99, 4,100.00, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4087 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
M15 close above the 4093 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs chain
Reclaim of the 4100 round number and the 4105 prior low would turn the break into a false break
London open in ~1h45 and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and compressing · RSI 23 · price 4,091.40
Lower highs since the Asia open; prior low at 4105 broken, tight base at 4088–4093.
The Asia session extended a steady slide from the 4142 post-NY high and broke the 4105 prior low in a 03:15 UTC leg, as the oil-to-yields channel kept gold heavy. Price is now compressing at 4088–4093, just above the session low, with RSI(14) near 23. The breakdown bar high at 4100.5 and the 4123.9 lower high cap the lower-highs sequence.
Support: 4,087.99, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4105 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4088 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
The lower-highs trendline sits near 4118; London open may expand the 4088–4093 range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, prior low broken, tight base 4088–4095.
Gold has sold off steadily from 4142 through the Asia session. The slide broke the prior low at 4104.98 and the 4100 round number around 03:00 UTC as firmer oil fed the yields channel. Price is now compressing in a 4088–4095 band just above the session low with RSI(14) near 22, still under the descending line off the lower high at 4123.89.
Support: 4,087.99, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,104.98, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4087.99 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
Recovery above the 4100 round number and the 4104.98 prior low would mark the break as a false break
A move through the descending line and the 4123.89 lower high ends the Asia lower-high sequence
Reaction around the 38.2% retracement of the Asia sell-off near 4108.7 if price bounces
London open is the first test of the 4088–4095 band
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into late Asia · RSI 17 · price 4,089.31
Lower highs from 4142.17; Wednesday's 4105 prior low broken.
The Asia session extended a steady slide from the 4142 late-NY high. After a lower high at 4123.89, the break through Wednesday's 4105 prior low accelerated losses, consistent with the oil-to-yields pressure in the digest. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold, and price is stalling just above the 4088 session low.
Support: 4,087.99, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4105 prior low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4088 session low leaves the 4070 range floor next in focus
A move through the lower highs trendline and 4123.89 lower high breaks the downtrend chain; 38.2% of the slide fib sits near 4109
London open is about 2.5h out; US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, Asia leg extending lower · RSI 25 · price 4,091.14
Lower-high/lower-low chain, prior NY low broken.
Asia session has sold steadily from the 4142 post-reopen high. Price capped at a lower high of 4123.89 under the descending trendline, then broke the 4104.98 prior low and set a session low at 4089.29 as oil-driven yield pressure weighed. RSI(14) sits near 25 and price is stalling just under the 4100 round number, with the 4070 range floor the next reference below.
Support: 4,089.29, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,104.98, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 4100 round number and the 4104.98 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4089.29 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
An M15 close above the 4123.89 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
London open in roughly 3h tends to reset the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending in late Asia · RSI 25 · price 4,092.09
Lower highs through Asia; broke below late-NY swing low.
The Asia session extended the slide from the 4142.17 day high and broke below the 4104.98 late-NY low, which had held as the weekly low, to a session low at 4090.02. RSI(14) sits near 25. The late-NY rebound on easing oil has fully unwound as oil firms again, and the asian lower highs sequence is intact heading toward the London open.
Support: 4,090.02, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,123.89, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 4104.98 broken low would mark the move as a false break
M15 close below the 4090.02 session low puts the 4070 monthly range floor in focus
A break above the 4123.89 lower high invalidates the asian lower highs sequence; the 4142.17 day high caps above
Fib of the day high to session low drop: a retracement toward 38.2% (~4110) would overlap the broken low zone
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
03:48 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 25 · price 4,094.37
Lower highs through Asia, 4105 prior low broken.
Asia has unwound the late-NY rebound to 4142. A chain of lower highs capped at 4123.89 gave way through the 4105 prior low, yesterday's spike low, and price tagged 4091.53 as renewed oil-driven yield pressure weighed. RSI(14) near 25 is oversold, with the round number at 4100 now overhead.
Support: 4,091.53, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,105.00, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4105 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Break of the 4091.53 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
M15 close above the lower highs trendline (~4119) or the 4123.89 lower high invalidates the Asia downtrend read
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; prior low at 4105 broken.
Late Asia session has extended the slide from the 4142 prior high. A string of lower highs, capped last at 4124, gave way to a break of the 4105 prior low and a new session low at 4095.76, with RSI(14) near 25. The move tracks the digest's oil-to-yields pressure on gold.
Support: 4,095.76, 4,070.00
Resistance: 4,104.98, 4,123.89, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 4105 prior low would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close above the 4124 lower high, near the 61.8% fib, invalidates the lower-high chain
Extension below the 4095.76 session low exposes the 4070 range floor
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4142 post-NY rebound high; price testing the 4104.98 prior low in late Asia session.
Asia session has extended the slide from the 4142 post-NY rebound high. Lower highs are capped at the 4123.89 swing high, and repeated stalls at the 4118 intraday cap leave price pressing yesterday's 4104.98 prior low, the weekly low. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR runs about $6.8 as firmer oil and yields keep rallies contained.
Support: 4,104.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,118.20, 4,123.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4104.98 prior low confirms a lower-low and puts the 4100 round number in play
Recovery above the 4118 intraday cap and then the 4123.89 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 200K) and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4142 range top, holding above the 4105-4107 lows.
After a sixth rejection at the 4142 range top, gold sold off through the Asia session as oil firmed on Middle East escalation. It printed an Asian low at 4107.42, just above Wednesday's 4105 weekly low. The 02:30 UTC bounce stalled at 4123.89, near the 50% retrace of the Asia sell-off, leaving a lower high with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,123.89, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
A break of the 4107.42 asian low exposes the 4105 weekly low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 4123.89 lower high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the Asia down-leg
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high chain from 4140; 4107–4124 base forming.
Asia has unwound yesterday's late-NY rebound off the 4104.98 spike low. It slid from the 4140.11 asian high to a 4107.42 asian low as oil firmed again on Middle East escalation. The bounce to the 4123.89 swing high stalled just under the 50% of the decline fib and the descending Asia trendline, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,123.89, 4,140.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4123.89 swing high and the Asia trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 4107.42 asian low exposes the 4104.98 spike low and the weekly low area
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Oil / US-Iran headlines remain the main driver via yields
Asia lower-high chain from 4140, micro double bottom at 4107/4109.
Asia session slid from the 4140 open near the prior high to a 4107.42 asian low as oil firmed on Middle East escalation, stopping just above yesterday's 4104.98 ny low. Twin lows at 4107/4109 produced a bounce to the 38.2% retracement of the 4142–4107 drop, with price pinned just under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,124.80, 4,128.90, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 50% at 4124.8 extends the double-bottom bounce, with the fib 61.8% at 4128.9 marking the Asia breakdown shelf
Failure at the fib 50% followed by a loss of the 4107 asian low and 4105 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 4100
4142 prior high caps the window; a reclaim would negate the session downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 4,112.88
Lower-high/lower-low chain under a descending trendline, pressing the Asia low.
Mid-Asia session, gold has slid steadily from the 4140 open to 4112.88. Lower highs sit under a descending trendline, price is probing the 4107 Asia low and RSI(14) is near 29. Renewed oil-led yield pressure has erased yesterday's late-NY rebound off the 4105 NY spike low, and that low is the next reference below.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,118.11, 4,124.80, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4118 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4107 Asia low exposes the 4105 NY spike low, then the 4100 round number
A retrace to the 50% fib of the Asia drop at 4125 would test the move's midpoint; the 4141–4142 range top capped price five times yesterday
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pace slowing at lows · RSI 36 · price 4,114.16
Asia lower-high slide, compressing just above the weekly low.
Asia has made a steady run of lower highs from the 4140.11 Asian high down to a 4107.42 Asian low. That move gave back the late-NY rebound off the 4104.98 weekly low as renewed Middle East escalation lifted oil again. The last four bars are compressing between 4107 and 4118 just above that low, with RSI(14) near 36, soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,118.55, 4,124.80, 4,140.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4104.98 weekly low takes out the late-NY spike low and exposes the 4100 round number
Close above the 4118.55 range top breaks the Asian lower-high sequence, with the 4124.80 50% retrace of the 4142–4107 drop next
Only a recovery of the 4140.11 Asian high undoes the overnight slide
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs and lower lows from the 4142 prior high.
Asia session has unwound Wednesday's late NY rebound, grinding from the 4142 prior high in a steady lower-high, lower-low sequence as oil firmed again on Middle East escalation. Price is stalling just above the 4107 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 36 and the 4118 lower high capping the micro-structure.
Support: 4,107.42, 4,104.98, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,118.55, 4,124.80, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4118.55 lower high breaks the Asian sequence and opens the fib 50% at 4124.80
Failure to hold the 4107 Asian low exposes the 4105 prior low (weekly low area) and the 4100 round number
London open is the next test of the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, selling pace easing near lows · RSI 36 · price 4,117.28
Asia lower-high sequence from 4142, retesting the NY low zone.
Asia session has slid from the 4142 prior high in a clean lower-high sequence, unwinding the late-NY V-rebound as firmer oil weighs on gold. Price is now back near the 4105 NY low, the weekly-low zone flagged in the digest. RSI(14) has bounced from about 30 off the 4107.4 Asia low, and price is pressing the descending trendline, with the 4121.6 lower high and the 61.8% fib near 4128.9 overhead.
Support: 4,107.40, 4,105.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,121.60, 4,128.90, 4,142.20
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4121.6 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain and the descending trendline.
Failure to hold the 4107.4 Asia low and the 4105 NY low opens the 4100 round number.
Reclaiming the 61.8% fib near 4128.9 puts the 4142 prior high back in view.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read.
01:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 35 · price 4,116.05
Lower highs and lows since the Asia open, inside the 4105–4142 day range.
Asia session has given back most of the late-NY rebound off the 4104.98 weekly low. Price has printed lower highs from the 4140 open as oil-driven yield pressure returns, with RSI(14) near 35 and price under both EMAs. The last bar is holding just above the 4110.77 asia low, near the 78.6% retracement of the NY rebound, with the Asia trendline capping around 4117.
Support: 4,110.77, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,121.57, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4121.57 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 4110.77 asia low exposes the 4104.98 weekly low
Day high 4142.17 caps the 24h range; reclaiming the 4126–4130 mid-zone would neutralise the Asia slide
Oil / Middle East headlines and Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4142 NY high into session low 4112.
After a fourth rejection at the 4140–4142 NY high, Asia has ground out an unbroken lower-high chain under the asia trendline. Price is now pressing the 4112 session low near the 78.6% retrace of the NY rebound from 4105, with oil-driven yield firmness weighing per the digest. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 4,112.17, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,121.57, 4,127.96, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4112 session low exposes the 4105 ny low, the late-NY spike low
M15 close above the 4121.6 lower high and the asia trendline (~4128) breaks the Asia downtrend sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, steady Asia slide · RSI 30 · price 4,117.58
Lower highs from 4142 day high; 61.8–78.6% retrace of the 4105–4142 rally.
Gold hit its day high at 4142 into the US close, near repeated 4141 tops, and has slid about $25 through the Asia session as oil-driven yield pressure returned. Price is below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 30. It is now testing the 78.6% fib of the 4105–4142 rally, just above the Asia low at 4114.
Support: 4,114.44, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,127.96, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
A close below the 4114 Asia low and the 78.6% fib exposes the 4105 day low, near the weekly low
An M15 close back above the 4128 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the slide
Day high at 4142 remains the cap while price holds below it
US-Iran / Hormuz oil headlines could move gold through yields before Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after a rejection at the 4141–4142 range cap.
Gold flushed to the 4104.98 weekly low late in NY, then rebounded to the 4142 range cap, where it was rejected for a sixth time. Asia has stepped down in lower highs from there to a 4116.69 asia low at the 61.8% retrace of that rebound, with renewed oil strength weighing. RSI(14) is near 29 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,116.69, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,127.96, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4116.69 asia low and the 61.8% rebound fib exposes the 4104.98 weekly low
An M15 close above the 4127.96 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
A clean break of the 4142 range cap would end the repeated rejection read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) in NY hours could materially shift this read
US-Iran / Hormuz oil headlines have been driving gold via yields
Lower highs every bar since Asia open, ~50% retrace of NY rebound.
Late NY swept the earlier 4106 low to a 4104.98 swing low, then rebounded to a 4142.17 prior high as oil eased on the tanker-cargo release. The early Asia session has unwound that move bar by bar, breaking 4130 and setting a fresh session low at 4122, just under the 50% retrace and above the fib 61.8% at 4119, with a lower high at 4128 capping and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 4,122.09, 4,119.19, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,127.96, 4,130.29, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4128 lower high breaks the Asia descending sequence; reclaiming the 4130 breakdown would neutralise it
Failure to hold the 4119 fib 61.8% exposes the 4105 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read