The post-PMI/Michigan selloff in NY hours took gold from the 4034 session high to a 3975.7 swing low, and the rebound saw rejection at the 4006 swing high near the 50% fib. Since then, price has carved lower highs below 4000 psych and is pressing the 3991 intraday low into the weekly close, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4006 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the 50% fib cap
Loss of the 3991 intraday low exposes the 3986.7 asian low, then the 3975.7 swing low
Weekly close in thin liquidity; oil/Middle East headlines over the weekend carry gap risk against 4000 psych
Tight range 3991–4006 after NY breakdown below Asian low.
Gold broke below the Asian range low on the Michigan sentiment beat at 14:00 UTC and printed a session low at 3975.70 before snapping back to 4000. Since then it has held a tight range from the 3991 range low to the 4006 range high through late NY, with the 4000 psych level capping closes near the 38.2% of the drop fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3991 range low reopens the 3975.70 session low
Reclaim of the 4006 range high, near the 50% of the drop fib, breaks the consolidation to the upside
Weekly close is imminent; Durable Goods Tue and FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC are the next risk events, with gap risk at the open
The NY-session US PMI and Michigan sentiment beats flushed gold from the 4034 session high to a 3975.7 three-month low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib retrace near the 4006 range top. Late-NY trade is now compressing in a 3991–4006 range below the 4000 psych level, with a lower high at 4002 and another at 4001.5.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,001.50, 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and reclaims 4000; the 4034 session high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 3991 range low reopens the 3975.7 three-month low
Friday close and weekend gap risk; the Fed decision on Wed Oct 28 at 18:00 UTC is the next major catalyst for this read
Tight 3991–4006 box after NY-open spike low, lower highs.
The NY-open selloff ran from the 4034.3 session high through the Asian low to a 3975.7 session low. Price snapped back, and beats in US PMI and Michigan sentiment gave no follow-through either way. Late Friday, gold is boxed between the 3991.0 range low and the 4006.3 range top, with lower highs capping it just under the 4000 psych level and the 38.2–50% retracement zone.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.30, 4,034.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006.3 range top clears the lower highs and the 50% fib, putting the 4034.3 session high back in view
Failure at the 3991.0 range low reopens the 3975.7 session low
Weekly close in about an hour: oil headlines over the weekend carry Monday gap risk
Durable Goods (Tue) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Down after NY flush, now flat · RSI 46 · price 3,999.73
Tight post-spike range 3991–4006 below 4000 handle, lower highs.
Gold's NY push to a 4034.26 session high failed as a false break. WTI above $100 then drove a flush through the Asian low to a 3975.70 spike low, with firm US PMIs adding little relief. Late NY session is holding a tight 3991–4006 range around the 4000 handle, with a lower highs sequence capped under the 50% retracement of the NY sell-off. RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range top and 50% fib reopens 4012 (61.8%) and the 4034 session high
Break of the 3991 range low exposes the 3975.70 spike low
Weekend Middle East and oil headlines could gap price at the open, away from the Friday close
Tight range 3,991–4,006 under the 38.2–50% retrace.
Early in NY, around the firm US PMI and Michigan prints, gold fell from the 4,034.3 day high to a 3,975.7 day low as WTI held above $100. The move broke the Asian range low at 3,986.7. Since then, price has compressed between the 3,991 range low and the 4,006.3 range top, with lower highs pressing under 4,000 psych and the bounce stalling near the 38.2% retrace.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,006.3 range top and the 50% retrace breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 4,012
Failure to hold the 3,991 range low exposes the 3,975.7 day low
Late NY into the Friday close: weekend Middle East and oil headlines carry gap risk at the reopen
Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) and December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Tight post-flush range 3991–4006 with lower highs.
The US PMI and Michigan beats in early NY drove a flush from near the 4034.26 day high to the 3975.70 pmi low, taking out the 3986.72 asian low. The snapback stalled at the 4006.32 range top near the 50% fib, and late NY is compressing between 3991 and 4006 under the 4000 round number, with lower highs and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4000 round number and 4006.32 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and the 50% fib cap
Failure to hold the 3991.00 range low exposes the 3986.72 asian low and then the 3975.70 pmi low
Weekly close is approaching. Weekend Middle East and oil headlines could gap price at the open
Wed Oct 28 FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with December-hike guidance as the key variable for this read
19:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY flush · RSI 46 · price 3,995.78
Post-sell-off range 3991–4006, lower highs under 4000 psych.
NY session saw a rejection at the 4034.26 NY high, then a flush through the 3986.72 Asian low to a 3975.70 day low as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing outweighed the firm US PMI beat. The bounce stalled at the 4006.32 range top, near the 50% fib of the sell-off, and late-Friday price is coiling in lower highs between the 3991.02 swing low and the 4000 psych.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3991.02 swing low exposes the 3986.72 Asian low and the 3975.70 day low
M15 close above the 4006.32 range top breaks the lower-highs line and the 50% fib, reopening the 4034.26 NY high
Repeated M15 closes back below the 4000 psych keep the post-flush range intact
Weekend Middle East and oil headlines could gap price at the open; Wed 28 Oct FOMC is the main scheduled risk
Tight range 3991–4006 below $4,000 after NY break of Asian low.
Gold broke below the Asian range low and $4,000 during NY hours. It fell from the 4034.26 day high to a 3975.70 3m low as WTI pushed above $100 and US PMI/Michigan data came in firm. The bounce has stalled at the 4006.32 range top, near the 50% fib of the NY drop, with lower highs at 4002. Price is compressing above the 3991.02 swing low, RSI(14) is neutral near 46, and ATR(14) is about 800 pips.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 3991.02 swing low reopens the 3975.70 3m low
A close above the 4006.32 range top and the lower-high line puts the 61.8% fib near 4012 in play
The Friday close is approaching, so weekend Middle East/oil headlines carry gap risk at the reopen
Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) and its December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY flush · RSI 45 · price 4,000.42
Lower highs inside a 3991–4006 band below the 50% fib.
NY poked above the 4032.66 Asian high to a 4034.26 ny high, then reversed through the 3986.7 asian low to a 3975.70 3m low as WTI pushed above $100. Late NY, after London close, has compressed into a 3991–4006 band around the $4,000 handle. Lower highs are capping it under the 50% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,986.70, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.30, 4,009.50, 4,034.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3991 swing low reopens the 3975.7 3m low, with the broken 3986.7 asian low in between
A close above the 4006 bounce high (50% fib) and the 4009.5 london low breaks the lower highs and opens the path to the 4034 ny high
Friday close into the weekend: Middle East / oil headlines can gap gold at the open
Durable goods Tue and FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled drivers
18:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after a flush · RSI 44 · price 3,998.44
Tight range 3991–4006 above the 3975.70 NY low, below the 4034 session high.
NY session broke the London range from the 4034 session high at 14:00–14:30 UTC as oil stayed bid. The drop swept the Asian low at 3986.7 and printed a 3975.70 NY low before snapping back to 4000. Since then price has held a 3991–4006 range, sitting on the 38.2% of the NY drop fib and just under EMA20 near 4003 into late NY hours.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range top, through the 50% fib, opens a deeper retrace of the NY drop toward the 4034 session high
Failure to hold the 3991 range low re-exposes the 3975.70 NY low
Friday close: weekend Middle East headlines carry Monday gap risk
NY hours brought a flush from the 4034.26 session high to the 3975.70 NY low, undercutting the 3986.72 Asia low as oil stayed bid. The rebound stalled at the 4006.32 bounce high, near the 50% retracement of the NY drop fib. After London close, price is grinding along the 3991 range low beneath the 4000 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3991 range low reopens the 3986.72 Asia low and the 3975.70 NY low
Reclaim of the 4000 psych handle and a close above the 4006.32 bounce high break the lower-high sequence and the NY drop fib 50% cap
Weekend Middle East and oil headlines carry Monday gap risk into the Friday close
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY flush · RSI 42 · price 3,995.28
Lower highs under 4006 range top after a sweep of the prior low.
The early NY selloff from the 4034 session high swept the 3986 prior low to a 3975.70 NY low, then snapped back. The bounce stalled at the 3998–4005 zone between the 38.2% and 50% fib, building a 3992–4006 range top cap. Late NY trade after London close has printed lower highs and slipped to a 3992 swing low, with oil-driven Fed hike pricing keeping gold heavy into the Friday close.
Support: 3,992.12, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3992 swing low puts the 3986 prior low and the 3975.70 NY low back in play
Reclaim of 4000 psych and a close above the 4006 range top would break the lower-high sequence
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend Middle East headlines raise Monday gap risk
FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC and Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Tight 3993–4006 box after NY flush; London range floor near 4009 broken.
The NY high at 4034.26 gave way after the firm PMI and Michigan prints. Price flushed to a day low of 3975.70 and undercut the Asian low at 3986.72 for a false break, then snapped back above 4000. Since then a 3993–4006 box has held, with the range top capping at the 50% retrace of the NY drop. Price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,011.89, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range top brings the 61.8% fib at 4011.89 and the broken London floor near 4009 into play
Loss of the 3993 range low reopens the Asian low at 3986.72 and the 3975.70 day low
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity around 4000 psych can exaggerate moves into the weekly close
FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC is the next major event risk for this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing after a flush · RSI 42 · price 4,004.62
Asian low swept in NY, now compressing in a 3993–4006 band below the breakdown.
Firm US PMI and Michigan sentiment beats triggered a NY selloff from the 4034.26 session high through the 3986.72 Asian low to a 3975.70 NY low. That sweep was bought back above 4000 within a bar. Since then price has compressed in a 3993–4006 band at the 50% retrace of the drop, below EMA20 near 4008, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.00, 4,016.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
A close above the 4006 range top and the 50% retrace reopens the 4016 breakdown level
Failure at the 3993 range low puts the 3986.72 Asian low and the 3975.70 NY low back in play
Late-Friday NY trade after London close; thin liquidity into the weekly close can distort range edges
FOMC Wed Oct 28 is the next major driver; pre-meeting oil headlines could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY flush · RSI 39 · price 4,001.06
Sweep of Asian low reclaimed, tight 3993–4006 band below 50% fib.
Firm US PMIs and the Michigan sentiment beat triggered a NY session flush from the 4034.3 session high. Price ran through the 3986.7 asia low to a 3975.7 ny low, then reclaimed 4000 within the same bar. Since then price has compressed between the 3993 base lows and the 4006 rebound high, which sits at the 50% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs after London close.
Support: 3,993.10, 3,986.70, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.00, 4,016.30, 4,034.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3993 base lows reopens the 3986.7 asia low and the 3975.7 ny low
Close above the 4006 rebound high / 50% fib exposes the 4016.3 breakdown level, where the NY slide started
Only a reclaim of the 4034.3 session high negates the NY breakdown
Late Friday NY session into the weekend close; FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC is the next major risk
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY flush · RSI 41 · price 4,003.26
London range broken lower, Asian low swept, tight 3993–4006 range.
Firm US PMI and Michigan beats knocked gold out of its 4009.52–4034.26 London range in NY hours. The drop swept the 3986.72 Asian low to a 3975.70 NY low before a rebound. After London close, price is consolidating between the 3993.07 range low and the 4006 bounce high, capped at the 50% fib of the drop; RSI(14) is near 41.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.00, 4,009.52, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
A close above the 4006 bounce high and the 4009.52 london low would move price back inside the broken range, with the 61.8% fib near 4012 above.
A break of the 3993.07 range low re-exposes the 3986.72 asian low and the 3975.70 ny low, where a lower low would confirm the sell-off is extending.
A rebound toward the 4034.26 session high would negate the range break read.
With no US data in the next 8h, the next scheduled risk is Tue Durable Goods ahead of Wed FOMC.
Lower high at 4034, Asian low swept, 3993–4006 coil.
A brief poke above the Asian range top failed at the 4034.26 session high. After the firm US PMI and Michigan prints kept Fed-hike pricing in focus, the NY selloff swept the 3986.72 asian low to a 3975.70 session low before snapping back above 4000 psych. Price is now coiling between the 3993 micro low and the 4005.70 micro high, near the 50% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) ~43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,005.70, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4005.70 micro high / 50% fib extends the bounce toward the 61.8% near 4012
Failure to hold the 3993 micro low reopens the 3986.72 asian low and 3975.70 session low
Friday late-NY thinning into the weekend, with Wednesday's FOMC the next major catalyst
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing after NY flush · RSI 40 · price 3,996.79
Lower high at 4034.26 then new low 3975.70 below Asian low; tight 3993–4005 box since.
The Michigan sentiment beat (48 vs 46.3) at 14:00 UTC triggered a ~$58 flush from the 4034.26 session high, sweeping the asian low at 3986.72 down to the 3975.70 ny low before a snap back to 4000. Mid-NY, price is coiling between the 3993 micro low and the 4005.61 bounce high, capped at the 38.2–50% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 40 and below both EMAs.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,005.61, 4,016.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Loss of the 3993 micro low reopens the asian low at 3986.72 and the 3975.70 ny low
M15 close above the 4005.61 bounce high (50% fib) brings the 4016.32 pre-data low back into play
Only a reclaim of the 4034.26 session high breaks the lower-high sequence
Late-NY Friday liquidity is thin; the next scheduled driver is the FOMC on Wed Oct 28 at 18:00 UTC
Broke the 4002–4034 Asia-London range lower in NY, swept the Asian low, now holding a tight 3993–4005 band.
Gold broke the 4002–4034 Asia-London range in the first hour of NY after the firm US PMI and Michigan beats. The drop swept the 3986.72 Asian low and printed a 3975.70 session low. The rebound stalled at the 4005.61 bounce high, near the 50% of the drop fib, and price is now pinned just under 4000 psych with RSI(14) near 38 and EMA20 overhead around 4010.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.61, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4005.61 bounce high and the drop fib 61.8% near 4012 would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 3993 bounce low exposes the 3986.72 asian low, then the 3975.70 session low
Recovery toward the 4034.26 session high would require reclaiming the broken range floor near 4002 first
No US data in the next 8h; Durable Goods Tue Oct 27 and FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled risks
Lower high at 4034.26, Asian low swept to 3975.70, retracing at 38.2%.
The firm US PMI and Michigan prints around 14:00 UTC drove a $58 flush from the 4034.26 NY session high to a 3975.70 day low. That move swept the 3986.72 Asian low before price snapped back to the 4000 round number. Price is now pinned near the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) near 38. The 4005.61 bounce high, close to the 50% level, is capping, and the bounce low at 3993.07 is holding for now.
Support: 3,993.07, 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.61, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3993.07 bounce low and 3986.72 Asian low exposes the 3975.70 day low; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 4005.61 bounce high and the 61.8% fib near 4011.89 weakens the breakdown read; 4034.26 session high marks the lower high on the lower-highs line
ATR(14) has roughly doubled post-data, so swings of ~$11 per bar are now normal into the weekly close
Durable Goods Tue and FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled risks that could shift this read
London range 4003–4034 broken lower in NY; lower low at 3975.70 under Asian low.
NY open broke the 4003–4034 London range and swept the asian low at 3986.72 to a 3975.70 ny low. Price snapped back to the 4000 round number, which is near the 38.2% of the drop from the 4034.26 session high. Gold stays heavy as oil-driven December Fed-hike bets override falling yields, and the bounce is stalling under the 4005.61 bounce high with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.61, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4005.61 bounce high extends the NY drop fib retracement toward the 4034.26 session high
Failure to hold the 3986.72 asian low reopens the 3975.70 ny low
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend; FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC is the next major risk, with no US data due in the next 8h
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rebound off the low · RSI 37 · price 3,998.46
London-NY range broke lower; Asian low swept, then reclaimed.
Firm US data (Mfg PMI 56 vs 55.6, Michigan 48 vs 46.3) knocked gold off the ny high at 4034.26. The drop broke the 4009–4034 London-NY range during NY hours and swept the asian low at 3986.72 down to a ny low of 3975.70. A sharp one-bar rebound has price capped just under the 4000 psych level, roughly at the 0.382 of the ny drop fib, below both EMAs.
Support: 3,986.72, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,009.52, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 3986.72 turns the sweep into a confirmed break and puts the ny low at 3975.70 back in play
Reclaiming the london low at 4009.52 would push price back inside the prior range and neutralise the breakdown
Repeated rejection at the 4000 psych level keeps the rebound a retracement within the ny drop fib
ATR near $11 has expanded sharply after the data flush; Friday late-NY swings may stay wide
FOMC Wed Oct 28 is the next major risk; Durable Goods Tue precedes it
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY breakdown extending · RSI 25 · price 3,978.23
NY session broke below the Asian range low and printed a fresh lower low.
NY session rejected a 4034.26 session high and sold off hard after the Michigan sentiment beat, slicing through the London low and the 3986.72 asia low to a 3975.70 session low. RSI(14) is near 25 and ATR has jumped to roughly 950 pips. Price sits below the 4000 psych handle, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeping gold heavy.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,960.00
Resistance: 3,986.72, 4,000.00, 4,009.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3986.72 asia low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3975.70 session low exposes SocGen's 3960 june low zone
4000 psych lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off; the 4009.52 london low sits above it as the next cap
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; FOMC Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC is the next major risk
London range 4009.5–4034 broken on 14:00 UTC bar; lower high at session high.
Gold was rejected at the 4034 session high in the first hour of NY. The 14:00 UTC bar, at the UoM release with PMI actuals still missing from the feed, dropped about 16 points and broke out of the London range below. Price is now under the 4009.5 London low and near the 61.8% retrace of the 3986–4034 Asia bounce, with the 4002 swing low and 4000 psych just beneath and RSI(14) around 32.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,009.52, 4,016.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4009.5 london low puts price back inside the range, with the 4016 pre-data low next above
Failure at the 4002 swing low and the 4000 psych exposes the 3986 3-month low printed in the Asia session
UoM inflation expectations and flash PMI actuals, not yet in the feed, could extend or reverse the 14:00 bar
Any recovery stalling below the 4034 session high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
14:03 UTC
Intraday range after rebound off 3986.72 low, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 4,019.37
4009–4034 day range; NY false break above Asian high, back to mid-range.
NY session briefly cleared the 4032.66 Asian high and the 4031 london high to a 4034.26 session high, then reversed. The drop around the flash PMI release found the ny low at 4016.32, near the 38.2% rebound fib, with the higher-lows line from 4002 just beneath. Price sits under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 43, still inside a 4009–4034 range above the 4000 psych level, against a heavy gold tone.
Support: 4,016.32, 4,009.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,031.05, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1y f/c 4.7%) are hitting the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4016 ny low and the 38.2% rebound fib exposes the 4009.5 london low and the higher-lows line
Failure to hold the 4000 psych level reopens the 3986.72 three-month low
M15 close back above the 4031 london high and 4034 session high negates the false break
13:47 UTC
Rebound from Asia low stalling, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 4,019.14
False break of Asian high, higher-low chain under test.
Gold built higher lows off the 3,986.72 asia low, but the first-hour-of-NY poke to a 4,034.26 session high above the Asian range top was rejected, and the PMI bar is slipping through the 4,021 range floor and rising support. With RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs, the 4,009.52 london low (near the 50% rebound fib) is the next reference.
What it said to watch
US S&P PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM 1y inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) land on this bar and the next. Hot prints line up with the digest's retest-of-4,000 scenario, soft prints with a relief bid.
An M15 close below the 4,009.52 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4,000 round number and the 3,986.72 asia low.
A reclaim of the 4,021 range floor and a close above the 4,034.26 session high would negate the false-break read.
13:31 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling under 4034 · RSI 54 · price 4,027.41
Higher lows pressing a flat 4030–4034 cap.
Gold has rebuilt from the 3,986.72 asia low, its lowest since July, with higher lows through London at 4009.52 and 4020.16. The 4,030–4,034 cap is still respected: the first NY push printed a 4034.26 session high and was rejected. RSI(14) sits near 54 and price holds above both EMAs, compressed into the 13:45 UTC PMIs.
Support: 4,020.16, 4,009.52, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,034.26, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
US S&P PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4034.26 session high breaks the cap and opens the 4048.44 prior high
Break of the 4020.16 higher low and rising trendline puts the 4009.52 london low and 4,000 psych in play
Loss of the 3986.72 asia low resumes the decline
13:17 UTC
Recovery off the Asia low, higher lows · RSI 61 · price 4,031.65
Higher lows pressing the 4,020–4,032.6 range top.
Gold has printed higher lows off the 3,986.72 asia low, the oil-driven flush, and is testing the 4,032.6 asian high for a fourth time in the first hour of NY. London held a 4,020–4,032 range above the rising trendline from 4,002, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 620 pips.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,032.6 asian high opens the 50% fib at 4,039.2, then the 61.8% fib at 4,051.6
Loss of the 4,020 range floor and the rising trendline shifts focus to the 4,009.5 london low
US S&P PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; hot prints put the 3,986.7 asia low back in view
13:04 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, now flat · RSI 52 · price 4,024.64
Tight 4020–4032 range since 09:00 UTC, higher lows beneath.
Gold has compressed into a $12 band between the range low at 4020.2 and the range top at 4032.5 since mid-London. Higher lows stepped up from the Asia low at 3986.7 through the London low at 4009.5, but four rejections near 4032 have kept a lid on the rebound into the NY open. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price sits on EMA20 ahead of US PMIs.
Support: 4,020.20, 4,009.50, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,032.50, 4,048.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.5 range top clears the Asian-session high, with the 4048 prior swing next
Loss of the 4020 range low exposes the 4009.5 London low, which sits at the 50% fib of the Asia rebound
Flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1-yr inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 3986.7 asia low back in play
12:46 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asia low, compressing · RSI 57 · price 4,029.91
Rising lows from 3986.72 into a tight 4020–4031 box.
Asia slid through 4000 to a 3-month low at 3986.72 (asia low) and reversed sharply, and London then printed rising lows at 4002 and 4009.52 (swing low). Into the London-NY transition, price is compressing in a 4020.16 range low to 4031.05 range top box. The range top has capped five tests just above the 38.2% fib of the 4091.73–3986.72 drop, while oil-driven inflation fears keep gold heavy despite lower yields.
Support: 4,020.16, 4,009.52, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,031.05, 4,039.20, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031.05 range top opens the fib 50% at 4039 and the 4048 prior pivot from Thursday's NY session
Loss of the 4020.16 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 4009.52 swing low, then 4000 and the asia low at 3986.72
Flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1-yr inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) at 14:00 UTC could break the box in either direction
12:31 UTC
Recovery off Asian low, compressing · RSI 56 · price 4,028.34
Higher lows into flat 4031 cap, tight range.
Gold has held a 4020–4031 range since mid-London. The session high sits near the 38.2% retracement of the 4091.73–3986.72 drop, while lows have stepped up from the 3986.72 Asian low, the 3-month low hit before dip buyers stepped in. Early NY hours, RSI(14) neutral near 56, with price coiling under the cap ahead of the US PMIs.
Support: 4,020.16, 4,009.52, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,031.05, 4,039.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031 session high opens the 50% fib at 4039
Loss of the 4020 range low and the higher lows trendline exposes the 4009.5 london low
A return to the 3986.72 asian low would cancel the higher lows sequence
13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM 1-yr inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) could break the range either way
12:16 UTC
Flat after Asia low, compressing below range top · RSI 50 · price 4,023.12
Asia swept $4,000 then recovered; London held a tight range inside the Asian range.
After Thursday's oil and Fed-hike-driven break of 4,065/4,070, Asia swept $4,000 to the 3,986.7 asian low and snapped back. London has stayed inside the Asian range: three rejections at the 4,031 range top, and the higher low at 4,020 has slipped below the rising line from the 4,009.5 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 50 and price is pinned at the EMA20 into the London-NY transition.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,031 range top breaks the London range and opens the Thursday prior swing at 4,048.4
Loss of the 4,020 higher low shifts focus to the 38.2% fib near 4,014 and the 4,009.5 swing low
Break of the 3,986.7 asian low invalidates the Asia recovery and puts $4,000 acceptance in question
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Sideways after sell-off, higher lows building · RSI 55 · price 4,025.17
London range 4020–4031 capped by the Asian high, rising lows beneath.
Gold recovered from the 3986.7 Asian low, its lowest since July, and through London has compressed between the 4020 range low and the 4031 Asian high. Rising lows from 4009.5 are pressing into a flat cap with RSI(14) neutral near 55 as NY approaches. Oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeps the rebound fragile.
Support: 4,020.20, 4,009.50, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,031.00, 4,048.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031 asian high breaks the range and opens the 4048 swing high
Break of the 4020 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 4009.5 london low
Acceptance back below the 3986.7 asian low would confirm a fresh lower-low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, flat in a range · RSI 58 · price 4,024.38
4020–4031 range inside the Asian range, higher lows since 04:45 UTC.
The bounce off the 3986.7 Asia low has stalled into a 4020–4031 range through London. The range top has rejected three times and price is still inside the Asian range, sitting just above flat EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 58. Gold is holding the bounce despite oil-driven Fed-hike pricing, with higher lows from 4002 and the 4009.5 London low forming the structure beneath the range floor.
Support: 4,020.20, 4,009.50, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,031.00, 4,048.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031 range top (Asia high 4032.7) opens the 4048.4 prior high from Thursday's NY session
Loss of the 4020 range floor exposes the 4009.5 London low and the rising lows trendline
Break of 4009.5 puts the 3986.7 Asia low back in play and confirms a lower-low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, about 2h out, are the likely trigger for a range break
11:31 UTC
Rebound from 3986 low, stalling under Asian high · RSI 60 · price 4,025.84
Higher lows since 3986.72, capped at 4031-4033.
Gold has carved higher lows at 4009.52 and 4020.16 through London after the Asia-session flush to a three-month low at 3986.72. Supply keeps capping at 4031-4033, the Asian high, which sits just above the 38.2% retrace of the 4091-3986 drop. Price is pinned in a 4020-4031 band late in London, still inside the Asian range ahead of US data.
Support: 4,020.16, 4,009.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,039.20
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 4020-4031 band either way
M15 close above the 4032.66 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the fib 50% at 4039.2
Loss of the 4020.16 higher low breaks the London higher-low chain; below the 4009.52 london low exposes 4000 psych
11:16 UTC
Range after Asia sweep, higher lows · RSI 56 · price 4,023.62
London range 4009.50–4030.90, coiling 4020–4026.
The Asia session swept below the $4,000 psych level to a 3-month low at 3986.72 before a sharp recovery. Gold stays heavy on oil-driven inflation and December Fed-hike pricing. London set higher lows, with the 4009.50 London low holding near the 50% of the recovery fib. Price is now coiling 4020–4026 into late London, above the coil low at 4020.20 and capped by the 4031–4033 session high band, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 4,020.20, 4,009.50, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,048.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4031–4033 session high band breaks the London range and opens the 4048 Thursday pivot (thu pivot).
Failure to hold the 4020.20 coil low puts the higher-low trendline and the 4009.50 London low back in play.
A break below the 4009.50 London low reopens the 4000 psych level and the 3986.72 low.
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, about 2.5h out, could materially shift this read.
Higher lows under a flat 4028–4033 cap, inside Asian range.
Gold's Asian flush below 4000 to the 3986.72 three-month low reversed within the bar. London has since built rising lows at 4009.52 and the 4020 range floor beneath a 4028–4033 cap set by the asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55. The digest has gold trading inverse to oil rather than to yields.
Support: 4,020.16, 4,009.52, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.66 asian high breaks the compression and opens the 4044–4048 prior pivot zone
Loss of the 4020 range floor and the rising lows trendline puts the 4009.52 london low back in play, then 4000 psych and the 3986.72 asian low
S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (f/c 4.7%) could decide the direction of the break
Oil and US-Iran headlines have driven every sharp swing this week and can override the session structure
10:46 UTC
Recovering from Asia sweep, stalling under Asian high · RSI 57 · price 4,023.72
Higher lows since 3986.72, compressing below 4031-4032 cap.
Asia swept below 4000 to a 3m low at 3986.72 and reclaimed it. Higher lows at 4002.06 and the 4009.52 london low followed, but mid-London price is compressing between a 4020.66 range floor and the london high at 4030.91, still inside the Asian range. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 with gold heavy on oil-driven Fed hike pricing.
Support: 4,020.66, 4,009.52, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,030.91, 4,032.28, 4,044.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.28 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 4044.75 broken low in play
Loss of the 4020.66 range floor reopens the 4009.52 london low and the 50-61.8% fib zone near 4009-4004
A break below 4009.52 ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes 4000 psych and the 3m low
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil or US-Iran headlines have driven every sharp bounce this week
10:32 UTC
Downtrend paused, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 58 · price 4,024.93
Higher-low chain off 3986.72, capped near 4031 session high.
Gold swept below $4,000 in Asia to a 3m low at 3986.72 and reclaimed it sharply. It has since built higher lows at 4002 and the 4009.5 london low, while the 4031 session high and the 38.2% fib of the 4091–3987 drop cap the bounce. London is trading inside the Asian range, compressing at 4021–4026 just above the rising trendline, RSI(14) near 58, with the macro backdrop still heavy on oil-driven Fed hike pricing.
Support: 4,020.70, 4,009.50, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,031.00, 4,039.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4031 session high breaks the Asian range top and brings the fib 50% at 4039 into view
Loss of the rising trendline and the 4009.5 london low ends the higher-low chain, exposing 4000 psych and the 3m low
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines have driven every sharp bounce this week
Higher-low chain inside Asian range, capped near 4031.
Gold swept below the 4000 psych level to a 3986.72 asian low before reclaiming it. Higher lows have followed at 4002 and the 4009.52 london low, with a London rally to a 4030.91 session high near the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's slide. Price is pausing just under that cap and the 4032.66 asian high as oil-driven hike bets keep pressure on the metal.
Support: 4,009.52, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,030.91, 4,032.66, 4,039.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.66 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the fib 50% at 4039.2
Loss of the 4009.52 london low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 4000 psych level back in play
Retest of the 3986.72 asian low would test the sweep low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows under Asian high · RSI 59 · price 4,023.70
Inside Asian range; higher lows since 3986.72 sweep, capped near 4031–4033.
Asia swept below the $4,000 psych level to the 3986.7 Asian low and reclaimed it within the same bar. Since then, higher lows at 4002 and the 4009.5 London low have formed. Mid-London, price is pressing back toward the 4032.7 Asian high, and the session high at 4030.9 has not yet cleared it. Gold remains heavy near $4,000 on oil-led Fed hike pricing, with US data due this afternoon.
Support: 4,009.50, 4,000.00, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,032.70, 4,048.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.7 Asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the path to the 4048.4 prior swing from NY hours yesterday
Failure to hold the 4009.5 London low breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 4000 psych level and 3986.7 Asian low back in play
US S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Rebound from sub-4000 sweep, capped under Asian high · RSI 59 · price 4,023.66
Higher lows since 3986.72, London trading inside the Asian range.
Asia swept below the 4000 psych level to an Asian low of 3986.72 and reclaimed it within the same bar. Higher lows have followed at 4002 and the 4009.5 London low, along a rising-lows line, while London has stalled twice at the 4030–4032 Asian high. The tone stays heavy after Thursday's slide on oil-led Fed hike pricing.
Support: 4,009.50, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,032.50, 4,048.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.5 Asian high breaks the London range and exposes the 4048 prior pivot
Loss of the 4009.5 London low and the rising-lows line puts the 4000 psych level back in play
Failure to hold 4000 reopens the 3986.72 Asian low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 3986.72 sweep; London testing Asian range high.
Mid-London, gold has lifted from the 4009.52 london low into the asian high zone at 4031–4033. The rise extends a higher-low chain off the Asia-session sweep low at 3986.72 below $4,000. Price is pressing the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's 4091–3987 slide, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched; the backdrop stays heavy on oil-led Fed hike bets.
Support: 4,009.52, 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,044.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.66 asian high opens the 4044.75 broken low, Thursday's early-NY swing
Rejection at the asian high and a break of the 4009.52 london low would undercut the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 4002.06 higher low exposes the 3986.72 sweep low and the $4,000 handle
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Recovering within a broader slide, higher lows · RSI 56 · price 4,024.68
Higher lows off the sub-4000 Asian low, capped at 4028.7.
Gold's Asian break below $4,000 to the 3986.7 asian low was reclaimed within the bar, and since then the session has printed rising lows at the 4002.0 swing low and the 4009.5 london low, with RSI(14) near 56. London is pressing the 4028.7 london high, a double cap with the 05:30 UTC Asian bounce high, and price sits above the 78.6% level of the asia drop fib. Oil-led Fed hike pricing keeps the wider tone heavy.
Support: 4,009.50, 4,002.00, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,028.70, 4,032.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4028.7 london high opens the 4032.6 asian high, the top of the asia drop fib
Loss of the 4009.5 london low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 4002.0 swing low and $4,000
Break below the 3986.7 asian low turns the sub-4000 move from a false break into a lower low
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 3986.72 false break, highs capped 4024–4028.
Thursday's slide from 4091 extended to a 3986.72 Asia low. That was a false break of the 4,000 psych mark, reclaimed within the bar, with oil-led Fed hike pricing keeping gold heavy. Mid-London, price has printed higher lows at 4009.52 along a rising-lows line, while supply caps 4024–4028 under the swing high and RSI(14) sits neutral near 51.
Support: 4,009.52, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4028.51 swing high opens the Asia high at 4032.66
Break of the rising-lows line and the 4009.52 London low exposes 4000 psych and the 3986.72 Asia low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 3986.72; London range 4009.5–4023 inside Asian range.
Two hours into London, gold is holding a 4009.5–4023 range inside the Asian range. That follows the spike to the 3986.72 Asian low and a higher swing low at 4002, with oil-led Fed hike bets keeping price pinned near $4,000. The last bar is pressing the 78.6% retrace of the Asia drop fib around 4022, just under the 4028.51 swing high.
Support: 4,009.52, 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4028.51 swing high breaks the London range and exposes the 4032.66 Asian high
Loss of the 4009.52 London low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 4002 swing low and $4,000
A break of the 3986.72 Asian low confirms a lower low below $4,000
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 51 · price 4,017.19
Contracting range inside Asian range, lower highs vs higher lows.
The early-Asia sweep below 4000 to 3986.7 (asian low) was rejected, and price has since compressed between lower highs from the 4028.5 swing high and higher lows from the 4002 swing low. Mid-London, gold sits inside a 4009.5–4022 band near the 61.8% retrace of the sub-4000 drop. Oil-driven Fed hike pricing has kept the wider downtrend in place.
Support: 4,009.50, 4,002.00, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,022.00, 4,028.50, 4,032.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4009.5 london low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 4002 swing low and 4000 psych back in play
M15 close above 4022 london high clears the lower-highs line, with the 4028.5 swing high and 4032.7 asian high next above
A break of the 3986.7 asian low would extend the sub-4000 drop
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tightening range inside the Asian range, lower highs vs rising lows.
Asia's false break below $4,000 printed a 3-month low at 3,986.7 and snapped back. The rebound stalled at the 4,028.5 swing high, about 31% into the rebound fib. Early London is compressing between the 4,009.5 london low and the 4,022 session high, with lower highs pressing against rising lows, while oil-led hike bets keep gold heavy.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,022 session high and the lower highs line opens the 4,028.5 swing high and the 4,032.5 asian high
Close below the 4,009.5 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 4,002 swing low near the rebound fib 61.8%
Loss of 4,000 again puts the 3,986.7 3-month low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower highs from 4028.51, higher lows from 4002.06.
Gold extended Thursday's oil- and hike-pricing slide. Asia swept below $4,000 to the 3986.72 asian low and snapped back. Early London is squeezing price into 4011–4022 between a lower highs line from the 4028.51 swing high and a higher lows line from the 4002.06 swing low, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,010.91, 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,021.98, 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4010.91 london low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 4002.06 swing low, then the 4,000 psych mark and the 3986.72 asian low
M15 close above the 4021.98 london high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 4028.51 swing high and the 4032.66 asian high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Rebounding from sub-$4,000 low, capped below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 4,020.28
Higher low at 4002 after sweep of $4,000; compressing 4011–4028 into London open.
The Asian-session break below $4,000 to the 3986.7 Asian low reversed sharply. Buyers then printed a higher low at 4002 and a rebound high at 4028.5, still below the 4032.7 Asian high. Early London is holding a 4011.7–4028.5 band with RSI(14) near 57 and price pressing EMA50, while oil-led Fed hike bets keep gold heavy near the figure.
Support: 4,011.70, 4,002.00, 3,986.70
Resistance: 4,028.50, 4,032.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.7 Asian high breaks the session range to the upside
Failure at the 4011.7 pullback low exposes the 4002 higher low and the higher-low line
Loss of the 3986.7 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence below $4,000
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian sweep below 4000 reclaimed; higher low at 4002, early London pulling back inside the Asian range.
The 24h slide from 4090, driven by oil-led Fed hike repricing, swept the 4000 psych to an Asian low at 3986.72 before price reclaimed it. A higher low at 4002 and a swing high at 4028.51 followed. Early London is holding a pullback low near 4011.7, close to the 38.2% retrace of the rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 4,011.67, 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4011.7 pullback low exposes the 4002 higher low; losing that reopens the 3986.72 Asian low
M15 close above the 4028.51 swing high and the 4032.66 Asian high would break the cap of the Asian range
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil or US-Iran de-escalation headlines remain the main source of sharp intraday spikes
07:17 UTC
Rebound off sub-4000 sweep, stalling in early London · RSI 50 · price 4,015.68
Higher lows 3986.7 → 4002 → 4012 after Asia false break; session high 4028.5 capping.
The Asia session swept below $4,000 to a 3986.72 sweep low, then reclaimed 4013 in a single bar. That false break produced a higher low at 4002.06 and a session high at 4028.51. Early London is holding the 4012 pullback low near the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) flat at 50, while gold still carries the oil-led hike-bet pressure from Thursday's slide.
Support: 4,012.10, 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4012 pullback low opens the 50% fib and the 4002 higher low
Failure to hold 4002.06 breaks the rising lows and puts the 3986.72 sweep low back in focus
Close above the 4028.51 session high and the 4032.66 asian high extends the rebound structure
US S&P PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 3986.72–4032.66; higher low at 4002 vs lower high at 4028.5, compressing.
Asia swept below the $4,000 psych level to a 3986.72 sweep low and reversed hard. Since then a higher low at 4002.06 and a lower high at 4028.51 have formed under the 4032.66 Asian high. London opens with price at 4013.57, mid-range near the 38.2% of the sweep rally fib and just under EMA20, RSI(14) ~46, while oil-driven Fed-hike fears keep gold heavy.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66, 4,034.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4002 higher low and back under the 4000 psych level reopens the 3986.72 sweep low
Close above the 4028.5 lower high and the 4032.66 Asian high breaks the range top into Thursday's 4034.36 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Middle East or oil headlines have driven sharp gold reversals all week
Coiling inside the Asian range: lower highs from 4032.7, higher low at 4002.
Asia briefly swept below the 4000 psych level to the 3986.72 Asian low and snapped back. Thursday's oil-driven slide has since paused: the 04:45 UTC dip held a higher low at 4002, while highs step down from the 4032.66 Asian high to a 4028.51 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace of the sell-off from 4091.73. Price is coiling just under EMA20 around 4014 ahead of the London open, still inside the Asian range.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4028.51 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4032.66 Asian high in play
Failure to hold the 4002 higher low reopens the 4000 psych level and the 3986.72 Asian low
Flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Middle East or oil headlines moving WTI sharply have been driving gold's intraday swings
Lower highs from 4032.66 Asian high, higher low at 4002 after sweep.
After Thursday's oil and hike-driven slide, the Asian session made a false break below the 4000 psych level to the 3986.72 Asian low before snapping back. Price is now coiling between the 4002 swing low and the 4028.5 swing high under a line of lower highs from the 4032.66 Asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 50 into London open. The 61.8% of the rebound fib sits near the swing low.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4002 swing low and 4000 psych reopens the 3986.72 Asian low
Close above the 4028.5 swing high and 4032.66 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line
Holding the 50–61.8% rebound fib zone keeps the higher-low structure intact
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 3986.7–4032.7; sweep below 4000 reclaimed, higher low at 4002.
After Thursday's oil-driven slide from 4102.8, Asia swept below the $4,000 psych to the 3986.72 asian low and reclaimed it in the same bar. Price then set a higher low at 4002 and a 4028.5 pre-ldn high, and now sits near 4019, inside the 71% retracement of the asian drop, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4032.7 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 4002 higher low and the 4000 psych reopens the 3986.7 asian low
Rejection at the 4028.5 pre-ldn high keeps price inside the range into London open
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Middle East or oil headlines: gold has been trading inversely to crude
Asian range 3986–4033, higher low at 4002 then push to 4028.
Asia swept below the $4,000 psych to the 3986.72 asian low and reclaimed it, then printed a higher low at 4002 before a push to 4028.51. Price is holding in the upper half of the Asian range into London open, under the 4032.66 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 after Thursday's oil-driven slide.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.66 asian high breaks the Asian range and the higher-low sequence extends
Rejection at the 4028.51 swing high keeps the Asian range intact
Failure to hold the 4002 higher low puts the 4000 psych and the 3986.72 asian low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil/Middle East headlines: gold has been trading inversely to crude this week
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 58 · price 4,021.79
Higher low at 4002 after sub-4000 flush; inside Asian range 3986.72–4032.66.
Thursday's oil-driven slide on Fed-hike fears extended in the Asia session with a flush to the 3986.72 Asian low, but the break below 4,000 was reclaimed within the same bar. A higher low at 4002.06 then fed a push to a 4028.51 bounce high, which is now pressing the 4032.66 Asian high ahead of London open; RSI(14) is near 58, and price sits above EMA20 but just under EMA50.
Support: 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,028.51, 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4032.66 Asian high opens the 4048.44 swing high, the last lower high of Thursday's NY selloff
Failure to hold the 4002.06 higher low and the rising higher-low line reopens the 3986.72 Asian low
Rejection at the 4028.51 bounce high keeps the Asia move a corrective bounce inside the downtrend
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian sweep below 4000 reclaimed; higher low at 4002 under post-sweep cap at 4024.
Gold extended Thursday's oil- and hike-driven slide into Asia. Price spiked below the 4000 psych level to a 3986.72 sweep low and reclaimed it within the same bar. A higher low at 4002 held this morning, and price is back at 4017, about 90 minutes before London open, under the 4024 post-sweep high and the 4032.66 Asian high.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4024.39 post-sweep high exposes the 4032.66 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4002 higher low puts psych 4000 and the 3986.72 sweep low back in play
Break of the lower highs line from 4032 would end the Asian lower-high sequence
Flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-sweep compression: lower highs from 4024, higher low at 4002.
Thursday's oil-driven slide extended in Asia with a false break below the $4,000 psych to the 3986.72 Asian low, reclaimed within the same bar. Since then, lower highs from the 4024.39 rebound high and a higher swing low at 4002.06 have compressed price into the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high-low move near 4015 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,002.06, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
Close above the 4024.39 rebound high breaks the post-sweep lower-high sequence and exposes the 4032.66 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4002 swing low and $4,000 psych reopens the 3986.72 Asian low and breaks the higher-low line
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 4015 keeps the Asian range compression intact
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late in the Asia session, price swept below the $4,000 psych level to an asian low at 3986.72, then reclaimed it in one bar to a rebound high at 4024.39. Lower highs since then have pulled it back to the 4002 swing low, which sits at the 50–61.8% zone of the sweep rebound fib. Thursday's NY selloff on oil-driven Fed hike bets is still the backdrop, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) in the mid-40s ahead of London open.
Support: 4,002.06, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,019.97, 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4002 swing low and the 4000 psych level reopens the 3986.72 asian low
Close above the 4020 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline running from the 4032 asian high
Acceptance above the 4024 rebound high and the 4032.66 asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asian rebound fading · RSI 41 · price 4,004.20
Lower highs after false break below 4000.
Late Asian session. Gold swept below the 4000 psych mark to the 3986.72 asian low and snapped back, but the rebound stalled at the 4024.39 lower high. A chain of lower highs has since pulled price back toward 4000, extending Thursday's oil- and hike-driven slide from the 4032.66 asian high. RSI(14) is near 41 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
A break of the 4000 psych level and the 3986.72 asian low would confirm a fresh lower-low.
An M15 close above the 4024.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 4032.66 asian high.
London open in about 2h is likely to set the session range away from the thin Asian tape.
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs after Asian sweep of $4,000, drifting back to psych.
The Asian session swept the $4,000 psych level to an Asian low of 3986.72 and snapped back, but the bounce stalled at 4024.39, just under the 38.2% retrace of the 4092–3987 leg. Price has since printed lower highs and is sliding back toward 4000 late in the Asian session. Oil-driven Fed hike pricing keeps the tape heavy.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 4000 psych and a break of the 3986.72 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 4024.39 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 4032.66 asian high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's NY-session slide carried into Asia. Price briefly broke the 4,000 psych level to the 3,986.72 Asia low, then snapped back above 4,010 in one bar. Since then it has compressed between the 4,012 rebound low and the 4,024 rebound high, under a line of Asia lower highs and capped near the 61.8% fib of the Asia move, RSI(14) neutral near 45. The oil-driven Fed-hike narrative keeps 4,000 in focus.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4,012 rebound low reopens a test of the 4,000 psych level
Close above the 4,024.39 rebound high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline and exposes the 4,032.66 Asia high
Acceptance below the 3,986.72 Asia low turns the sub-4,000 false break into a lower low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A US-Iran de-escalation headline that knocks WTI off $100 is the main upside-shock risk
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after sweep · RSI 45 · price 4,013.88
Lower highs; post-sweep range 4011–4024.
Asia session flushed through the $4,000 psych level to a 3986.72 sweep low and was rejected sharply. The rebound stalled at a 4024.39 swing high, under the falling trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from yesterday's 4091.73 NY high. Price is now compressing above the 4011 range floor, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeping $4,000 in focus.
Support: 4,011.20, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4011 range floor reopens the 4000 psych test and the 3986.72 sweep low
Close above the 4024.39 swing high and the falling trendline exposes the 4032.66 asian high
London open in ~3h may break the post-sweep range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A US-Iran de-escalation headline that knocks WTI off ~$100 could invalidate the lower-high sequence
Lower highs intact; post-sweep range 4011–4024 below the Asian high.
Late Asia session. Gold extended Thursday's oil-driven slide with a sweep below the $4,000 psych level to a 3986.72 session low, then snapped back above 4010. Price is now compressing between a 4011 range low and a 4024 range high, near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asia fib. That drop ran from the 4032.66 Asian high, which still caps the lower-high chain beneath the falling trendline from the 4048 swing high. RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 and ATR(14) is about $11.
Support: 4,011.20, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4011 range low reopens the $4,000 psych level and the 3986.72 session low
Acceptance above the 4032.66 Asian high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 4048 swing high
Failure at the 4024 range high keeps the move capped below the 78.6% level of the Asia fib
London open in ~3h typically expands the Asian range
S&P flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant intraday driver
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sweep · RSI 46 · price 4,019.54
Asia session swept below psych 4000 to a 3986.72 sweep low and reclaimed it within the bar, retracing about 75% of the drop from the 4032 Asia high. Price is now coiling between the 4012 base low and the 4024 bounce high, pressing the descending lower-high line off 4091. Lower highs since the NY slide remain intact as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeps gold heavy.
Support: 4,012.20, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4024.39 bounce high and the lower-high line opens the 4032.66 asia high
Loss of the 4012 base low re-exposes psych 4000 and the 3986.72 sweep low
Oil or Middle East headlines can override the intraday structure, as with the sharp bounces seen earlier this week
S&P flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 44 · price 4,014.71
Lower highs from 4048; sweep below 4000 reclaimed.
Gold extended the NY slide into the Asia session as oil lifted Fed-hike bets. Early Asia swept the $4,000 psych to a 3986.72 session low, then snapped back above it. The rebound stalled at the 4024 bounce high, under the 4032 Asia high, and price is idling near the 61.8% retrace around 4015, with the falling-highs line from 4048 intact.
Support: 4,010.05, 4,000.00, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4010 minor low, then 4000 psych, reopens the 3986.72 session low
Close above the 4024 bounce high and 4032 Asia high breaks the falling-highs sequence
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A Middle East de-escalation headline knocking WTI lower has driven sharp rebounds this week
Lower highs from 4091.7; false break below 4000 reclaimed, bounce capped at 4024.
Mid-Asia session extended the NY-led slide from 4091.7, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighing on gold. The sweep below the $4,000 psych level to a 3986.72 sweep low was reclaimed in one bar, and the bounce has stalled at the 4024.4 bounce high, just above the 78.6% fib of the 4032–3987 drop. EMA20 sits at price and RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 4,010.05, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,024.39, 4,032.66, 4,044.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4010 swing low and $4,000 psych reopens the 3986.72 sweep low
Close above the 4024.4 bounce high and the 4032.7 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence; 4044.75 ny low is next overhead
Oil / Middle East headlines can override structure at any time in Asia
S&P PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce off sub-4000 sweep · RSI 47 · price 4,018.42
Gold extended the NY sell-off into the Asia session. The oil shock is lifting Fed-hike bets, and price swept below the $4,000 psych to 3986.72 before snapping back above the 4010 swing low. The bounce stalled at the 4023 rebound high, near the 78.6% of the sweep leg and under the lower-high trendline, with price pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,010.05, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,023.18, 4,032.66
What it said to watch
A close above the 4023 rebound high and the lower-high trendline near 4027 opens the 4032.66 asian high
Failure to hold the 4010 swing low re-exposes the $4,000 psych and the 3986.72 sweep low
S&P PMIs at 13:45 UTC, plus oil and Middle East headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; Asia false break below 4000 reclaimed.
Mid-Asia session, the NY slide extended into a sweep below the $4,000 psych to the 3986.72 sweep low, then a sharp rejection reclaimed 4013 as oil-driven Fed-hike repricing kept gold heavy. Price is now pressing the ema20 near 4019 beneath the lower-highs trendline, with the 4032.66 Asia high as the session ceiling. RSI(14) has recovered to about 45 and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 940 pips.
Support: 4,010.05, 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,018.70, 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4010 swing low and the $4,000 psych would negate the false break and reopen the 3986.72 sweep low
Close above the 4032.66 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 4048 lower high comes into view
London open could extend or fade the Asian range; S&P PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are scheduled risk
Oil and Middle East headlines can override the intraday structure in either direction
Lower highs from 4091; Asian range 4020–4032 broken, false break below 4000.
Gold extended the NY-session slide in Asia as the oil shock kept Fed-hike pricing firm, breaking the 4020–4032 Asian range and spiking through the $4,000 psych level to a 3986.72 sweep low. The 02:00 UTC bar snapped back to 4013, a false break of $4,000. Price is now capped under the broken ny low at 4021, with the descending highs line and 38.2% fib of the NY drop clustered near 4027–4030.
Support: 3,986.72
Resistance: 4,021.14, 4,032.66, 4,044.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back below $4,000 psych negates the false break and re-exposes the 3986.72 sweep low
Close above the 4021 ny low and the descending highs line opens the 4032.66 asian high, then the 4044.75 ny pivot near the 50% fib
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the dominant driver and can override this read intra-session
S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in early Asia · RSI 26 · price 3,986.92
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
The 4,017–4,032 Asian range gave way in early Asia. A $24 bar took gold through the $4,000 psych level to a session low at 3,986.92, extending the lower-high chain that followed the oil-driven break of 4,065–4,070. RSI(14) at 26 is stretched but not extreme. The 4,000 psych level and the 4,012 swing low now sit overhead, inside the 38.2–61.8% retracement of the drop from the Asian high.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 4,000 psych would mark the sub-4,000 break as a false break
Supply capping a bounce at the 4,012 swing low keeps the lower-low sequence intact
Failure to hold the session low at 3,986.92 exposes the 3,960 june low zone
A US-Iran de-escalation headline that drops WTI could trigger a sharp short-covering spike, as earlier this week
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from NY session; Asian range low broken.
Gold's lower highs held through NY into Asia, with the oil-driven Fed-hike repricing still weighing. The 00:45 UTC spike to 4032 was rejected below the asian high, and the next bar broke through the 4021 prior low and the 4017 Asian range low to a 4010.05 session low. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,010.05, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,021.14, 4,032.66, 4,041.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4021 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4010 session low exposes the 4000 psych handle
Close above the lower highs trendline and 4032.66 asian high breaks the lower-high chain; fib 0.382 of the 4091–4010 leg sits at 4041
Middle East or oil headlines can trigger sharp reversals regardless of structure
S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; fresh Asia session low printed.
Early Asia session: the 00:45 spike was rejected at the 4032.5 asian high, and the next bar printed a fresh session low at 4011.87. That extends the lower-high chain from the 4048 swing high, with price now under the 4021 broken low and RSI(14) near 39. Oil-driven Fed-hike repricing keeps the 4000 psych level in focus.
Support: 4,011.87, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,021.20, 4,032.50, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4021 broken low reopens the 4032.5 asian high and the 50–61.8% fib zone
Loss of the 4011.87 session low exposes the 4000 psych level
Close above the 4048.44 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Middle East / oil headlines can override structure; S&P PMIs and UoM at 13:45–14:00 UTC later today
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asia broke below prior-day low.
Asia rejected twice at the 4032 asian high, then the 01:00 UTC bar dropped $18 to a 4012 session low, below the 4021 prior low and extending the lower-highs line off the 4048 swing high. The sell-off fits the oil-driven Fed-hike repricing, with RSI(14) near 38, not yet oversold, and the $4,000 psych level about $13 below.
Support: 4,012.03
Resistance: 4,021.14, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4021 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 4032 asian high and the lower-highs line invalidates the downtrend read
Acceptance below the 4012 session low exposes the $4,000 psych level
A 61.8% retrace of the 4048 drop near 4034 would test the 4032 asian high zone
Middle East or oil headlines can override structure; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 46 · price 4,025.96
Lower highs and lower lows from 4091.73; Asian range 4016.80–4032.66.
Gold held a lower-high/lower-low decline from 4091.73 through London and NY as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighed, and the NY-session break of 4060 extended losses. Early Asia has compressed below EMA20 into a 4016.80 Asian low to 4032.66 Asian high range. The dip to the Asian low swept Thursday's 4021 floor and drew a sharp bounce, but supply capped the rally twice near 4032.
Support: 4,016.80, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4016.80 Asian low resumes the lower-low chain, with the 4000 psych level next
M15 close above the 4032.66 Asian high breaks the range top and exposes the 4048.44 swing high near the 38.2% decline fib
Oil and Middle East headlines can override the intraday range; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and 14:00 UoM come later in the day
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia consolidating near lows · RSI 45 · price 4,021.98
Lower highs intact; Asian range 4016.80–4032.66 sitting on prior low.
Gold carried the NY-session slide into Asia, dipping through the prior low at 4021.14 to a session low at 4016.80 before bids pulled it back above. Oil-driven Fed-hike repricing keeps supply capping each bounce: lower highs run 4064.81, the 4048.44 swing high and the 4032.66 Asian high. RSI(14) near 45 is flat inside a tight Asian range, with momentum fading rather than extending.
Support: 4,021.14, 4,016.80, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4016.80 session low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts the 4000 psych handle in play
Close above the 4032.66 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 38.2% of the ny drop fib near 4035, then the 4048.44 swing high
Repeated M15 closes below the 4021.14 prior low turn the dip below it from a false break into acceptance
Middle East or oil headlines can override intraday structure, as with the de-escalation bounces earlier this week; Friday 13:45 UTC PMIs are the next scheduled risk
Lower-high chain since NY open; early Asia slipping below prior-session low.
Gold extended its oil-driven slide, with Fed-hike bets firming. Early Asia faded from the 4032.66 session high and pushed through the 4021.14 prior low to 4017.12, leaving the $4,000 round number about 19 dollars below. Each bounce since the NY open has topped lower, most recently at the 4048.44 swing high and the 4032.66 session high, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,017.12, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,021.14, 4,032.66, 4,048.44
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4021.14 prior low would mark the break as a false break
A move above the 4032.66 session high clears the lower-high trendline
Failure at 4017.12 exposes the 4000 round number
Oil and Middle East headlines can trigger sharp short-covering bounces toward the fib 38.2 near 4045
S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain; tight Asian range at the base of the selloff.
Thursday's slide through the 4065 broken floor, driven by oil-led Fed-hike fears with no haven bid, left a clean lower-high chain from 4091.73 down to 4048.44. Early Asia is compressing in a 4020–4033 band, and the 4020.42 session low sits just under the NY low. RSI(14) near 41 shows momentum has cooled, but price stays below both EMAs and the falling trendline.
Support: 4,020.42, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,032.66, 4,048.44, 4,064.81
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4020.42 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
M15 close above the 4032.66 session high breaks the falling trendline and opens a retracement toward the 4048.44 lower high
Reclaim of the 4065 broken floor would mark the first sign the selling is exhausting
Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil reversal or US-Iran de-escalation headline is the largest risk of a sharp snap-back