Tight 3991–4006 range since Friday's slide; Asia open fading from session high.
Sunday's Asia session opened with a small gap to 4000.47 but met rejection at the 4004.16 session high, near the 50% retrace of Friday's 4034–3975 drop. Price is now back at the session low near 3993, still inside the 3991–4006 range built after Friday's US PMI and Michigan beats sent gold to the 3975.70 Friday low, with oil-driven Fed hike pricing keeping the psych 4000 handle capped.
Support: 3,993.15, 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,004.16, 4,006.32
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3991.02 swing low exposes the 3975.70 Friday low
M15 close above the 4006.32 prior high and 50% fib breaks the range read
Repeated failures at psych 4000 keep the range top intact
Oil and Middle East headlines during the Asia session can move gold before Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's FOMC
23:32 UTC
Flat after Friday's NY sell-off · RSI 52 · price 3,998.59
Tight range 3991–4006 under the 4000 psych; Asia open holding inside Friday's late range.
Gold opened the week's Asia session inside Friday's late 3991–4006 range, pinned to the $4,000 psych and the 38.2% retrace of Friday's drop from the friday high at 4034.26 to the friday low at 3975.70. That slide followed the US PMI and Michigan beats, with oil-driven Fed hike bets adding pressure. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, and price is flat against EMA20, so there is no setup in play.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range top at 4006 (50% fib of Friday's drop) opens the path back toward the friday high at 4034
Failure to hold the range low at 3991 exposes Friday's three-month low at 3975.70
Oil and Middle East headlines in thin Asian liquidity could break the range before London
Tight 3991–4006 range capping price after the drop to the 3975.70 low.
Friday's first-hour-of-NY drop from the 4034 friday high to the 3975.70 3m low set the structure. Since then gold has sat in a 3991–4006 range just under the $4,000 psych as oil-driven hawkish-Fed pricing keeps it offered. Early Asia session trade on Monday is still inside that range, with price on the 38.2% fib of the drop, the 50% near the range top and RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4006 range top clears the 50% fib and breaks the range higher
Loss of the 3991 range floor puts the 3975.70 3m low back in play
Weekend oil and Middle East headlines could push price out of the Asian range at the open
Tue US data and Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) sit beyond this window but frame positioning into the week
Tight range 3991–4006 under Friday's breakdown, lower highs intact.
Gold opened the week just above $4,000, inside Friday's post-drop range of 3991–4006. Friday's NY selloff from the 4034.26 friday high to the 3975.70 3m low came as PMI beats and oil above $100 firmed hike bets. Early Asia has held the 3993.15 asia low, while the bounce is stalling under the range high and 50% fib near 4005, with RSI(14) neutral around 56.
Support: 3,993.15, 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range high and 50% fib reclaims the lower half of Friday's drop and opens 4034.26 friday high
Loss of the 3993.15 asia low and 3991.02 range low re-exposes the 3975.70 3m low
Oil and Middle East headlines during Asia session are the main near-term catalyst; Tuesday US data and Wednesday's FOMC sit beyond this window
3991–4006 box since Friday's NY drop, holding just above 4000.
Friday's NY-open drop ran from the 4034.26 Friday high to the 3975.70 3m low. Price has since boxed between the 3991.02 range low and the 4006.32 range top, which sits near the 50% fib of that drop. Sunday's reopen is holding just above the 4000 psych level in early Asia session, with oil-driven hawkish-Fed pricing still weighing on gold.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006.32 range top exposes the 61.8% fib near 4012, with the 4034.26 Friday high above that
Loss of the 4000 psych level and then the 3991.02 range low reopens the 3975.70 3m low
Oil and Middle East headlines can move gold during the thin Asia session
Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Flat after NY flush, below 4000 pivot · RSI 47 · price 3,998.29
Tight 3991–4006 range under 50% retrace of Friday drop.
Early Asia trade on the weekly open is holding inside Friday's post-NY range of 3991–4006. The 4000 psych level is the pivot, and the range top sits between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of Friday's drop from the 4034.26 friday high to the 3975.70 friday low, which came as oil-driven hawkish-Fed pricing sold the NY high.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4006 range top and 50% fib breaks the range and exposes 4012 (61.8%)
Failure at range low 3991 reopens the 3975.70 friday low (three-month low)
Repeated rejection at psych 4000 keeps the range lid intact
Oil / Middle East headlines during thin Asia session hours could break the range early
22:17 UTC
Downtrend paused, tight range under $4,000 · RSI 43 · price 3,995.14
Post-flush range 3991–4006, lower highs capping.
The Sunday Asia-session open at 4000.47 was rejected straight back into Friday's 3991–4006 range, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43. Friday's NY-session sweep to the 3975.70 friday low came on hawkish-Fed and oil pressure. The rebound stalled near the 50% fib, and a run of lower highs has capped it since.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4006 range high and the lower-highs line would break the post-flush range, putting the 4034.26 ny high back in view
Failure to hold the 3991 range low exposes the 3975.70 friday low
A reclaim of psych 4000 would neutralise the Sunday open rejection
Tue US data (Durables 12:30 UTC, Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC) and Wed FOMC at 18:00 UTC could reset this range
Tight 3991–4006 range after NY breakdown, lower highs into Friday close.
Friday's NY sell-off after the PMI and Michigan beats took gold from the 4034.26 fri high through the 4023 breakdown shelf to a 3975.70 3-month low. The rest of the session coiled in a 3991–4006 range under lower highs. The weekly reopen gapped about $3.4 higher to 4000, right at the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off and just above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.30, 4,023.20, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Close above the 4006.3 range top and the lower-highs line opens the 61.8% fib near 4012, then the 4023 breakdown shelf
Failure at the 3991 range low exposes Friday's 3975.70 3-month low
Thin reopen liquidity: weekend oil and Middle East headlines could extend the gap. FOMC on Wednesday is the main scheduled risk
Reclaim of the 4034 fri high would negate the post-breakdown structure
Early NY flushed gold from the 4034.26 session high to a 3975.70 3-month low as oil-driven Fed hike bets weighed. The bounce stalled at 4006.32, near the 50% fib of the NY flush. Late NY then compressed into a 3991–4002 band under the $4,000 psych level, with lower highs and RSI(14) neutral near 47 into the weekly close.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Monday Asia open gap risk vs Friday close near 3997
M15 close above the 4006.32 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 3991.02 swing low exposes the 3975.70 3-month low
Tue US data and Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Down after NY selloff, now ranging below 4000 · RSI 48 · price 3,997.08
3991–4006 range after a 4034→3975 drop; lower highs into Friday close.
Firm US PMI and Michigan prints in early NY hours drove gold from the 4034.26 session high to a 3975.70 Friday low. The rebound was rejected at range top 4006.32, near the 50% retrace, and price then rotated between the 3991 range low and psych 4000. Highs stepped lower into the Friday close at 3997, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 3,991.02, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.32, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3991 range low opens a retest of the 3975.70 Friday low
Reclaim of psych 4000 and a close above the 4006 range top / 50% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the range read
Asia session reopen after the weekend carries gap risk on oil and Middle East headlines
Tuesday US data and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY flush · RSI 46 · price 3,997.08
Tight 3991–4006 range beneath 4000 psych, lower highs into weekly close.
Friday's NY session rejected the 4034.3 session high and dropped through the Asian low at 3986.7 after the PMI and Michigan beats, reaching a 3975.7 session low before a sharp rebound. Since then price has compressed in a 3991–4006 band under the 4000 psych level. Bounces have stalled at the 38.2–50% fib of the drop and are printing lower highs into the weekly close, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.30, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4006.3 range high and the 50% fib invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3991 range low reopens the 3975.7 session low
Window ends at Friday's close, so the Monday Asia open carries gap risk on oil and Middle East headlines
Tue US data (Durables, Consumer Confidence) and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
Tight 3991–4006 range with lower highs after NY session sell-off.
Friday's NY session flushed gold from the 4034.3 session high to a 3975.7 three-month low (3m low) as PMI beats and WTI above $100 kept December hike odds firm. The bounce met rejection at the 38.2% fib near the 4000 psych level. Late NY then compressed into a 3991–4006 range, from range low to range high, printing lower highs into the weekly close with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 3,991.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.30, 4,034.30
What it said to watch
Sunday reopen gap outside the 3991 range low or 4006 range high would reset the late-Friday range read
Failure to hold the 3975.7 3m low confirms a lower-low, with the 3960/3940 zone next
M15 close above the 4000 psych and the lower-highs trendline brings the 50% fib near 4005 and 61.8% near 4012 into play
Weekend oil and Middle East headlines are the main gap risk; Wednesday's FOMC remains the key scheduled event