21:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 26 · price 3,997.08
Lower highs since 4227; 4066-4073 range floor broken.
Gold spent most of the window in a 4066-4227 range with a run of lower highs from 4227 down to 4142, then broke the 4066-4073 range floor midweek and slid to a 3975.70 swing low. The digest ties the drop to an oil shock reviving hawkish-Fed bets ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Price now sits below both EMAs and under the 4000 psych level, with RSI(14) in oversold territory and ATR(14) expanded to about $32 per bar.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,940.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,034.26, 4,070.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 3975.70 swing low exposes the 3960/3940 june low zone
- Reclaim of the 4000 psych level and the 4034.26 bounce high would mark a first recovery attempt toward the 38.2% fib near 4039
- The old range floor at 4066-4073 sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib; an H4 close back above 4070 invalidates the range-break read
- Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC, with Tuesday's Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence beforehand, could materially shift this read
- WTI around $100: gold has traded inversely to oil, and an oil pullback is the main relief valve flagged in the digest