19:05 UTC
Corrective downtrend from January record, below EMA50 · RSI 36 · price 4,037.85
Lower highs since 5598; broad 3940–4700 range since June.
Gold has been in a corrective downtrend since the late-January record at 5598, with lower highs at 5419, 4889 and 4697 and a broad 3940–4700 range in place since June. Price has slipped back below the W1 EMA50 (~4210) and sits just under the 61.8% fib of the May 2025–January rally at 4067, after the latest rejection from the 4697 lower high. Gold is trading as an oil-and-hawkish-Fed proxy rather than a haven, which explains the slide toward the 4000 psych level and the June low at 3943. RSI near 36 is soft but not yet at an extreme on this timeframe.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.64, 3,886.48
Resistance: 4,067.00, 4,210.00, 4,696.74
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the june low at 3943 breaks the range floor and extends the lower-low sequence, exposing the q4-25 low at 3886
- A recovery above the 61.8% fib at 4067 and the EMA50 near 4210 would neutralise the downtrend read
- A weekly close above the 4697 lower high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the lower-high structure
- The Fed decision on Wed Oct 28 at 18:00 UTC, with December-hike guidance in focus, could materially shift this read
- WTI holding above or slipping below $100 is the dominant macro driver of the current regime