19:07 UTC
Post-peak correction, sideways below W1 EMA50 · RSI 44 · price 4,162.20
Lower highs from Jan peak, higher lows since June; range compressing.
Gold has been in a corrective range regime since the January blow-off peak at 5598. Q2–Q3 trade has held between the June low at 3943 and the April high at 4889, with lower highs at the April and Aug high and a higher low at the Oct low near 4066, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 2025-26 rally. Price at 4162 is just below the W1 EMA(50) near 4217, which capped this week's high even as a softer USD and easing yields absorbed the hot PPI print; RSI at 44 is neutral and the round number 4000 has not been tested.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,217.00, 4,696.74, 4,889.10
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the W1 EMA(50) near 4217 would reclaim the macro filter and put the lower highs line back in play
- Weekly close below the Oct low at 4066 and the 61.8% fib breaks the higher lows sequence, exposing the round number 4000 and the June low at 3943
- A break above the Aug high at 4697 ends the lower-highs sequence; the April high at 4889 is the next multi-month cap
- Oct 27–28 FOMC with a hike still live could materially shift this read via real yields and the USD