V-shaped recovery from the CPI low with higher lows intact, capped by a second test of 4200.
Tuesday's Asia-session run to 4200.49 faded through NY. Wednesday's hot CPI print then knocked gold to the 4073.55 cpi low during NY hours. The recovery from Thursday's Asia open, helped by lower long-end yields, carried to 4198.77 in Friday's NY session after Warsh's no-guidance remarks, but stalled just under Tuesday's high and left a potential double top at 4200. Price has slipped back to the 4155 friday low as yields firmed and now sits on EMA(20) near 4169 with RSI(14) around 47, while the higher-lows line from the 4130 thursday low still holds.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,169.00, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 double top breaks the week's range top
Failure to hold the higher-lows line and the 4155 friday low exposes the 4130 thursday low and the 50% recovery fib near 4136
A break of 4130 brings the 4073.55 cpi low back into view
Holding back above EMA(20) at 4169 would restore the recovery sequence
Weekend IMF meetings carry gap risk into Monday's open; US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC could reprice October hike odds
Higher lows from the Wednesday CPI low; Friday high capped under the Tuesday week high.
Gold retraced all of Wednesday's CPI flush to 4073.55 through Thursday and Friday as yields and the USD eased, but Friday's NY-session push to 4198.77 was rejected just under the 4200.49 week high set in Tuesday's Asia session. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) near 4168 and is sitting on EMA(50) around 4161 and the rising trendline from Thursday's PPI low. RSI(14) has eased to the mid-40s, and the 38.2% fib of the CPI-low rally sits near 4151.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,168.20, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4155 trendline and the 4147 fri low breaks the higher-low sequence from the CPI low
Failure to hold 4147 exposes the 4130 ppi low and the 61.8% fib of the CPI-low rally near 4121
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 4168 puts the 4200 week high back in focus as the range top
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak on October hike odds could shift the open; calendar is light until Tue housing data
Higher lows since Thursday inside the 4073–4200 weekly range.
Gold has spent the week inside a 4073–4200 range. Tuesday's Asia push stalled at 4200, and Wednesday's hot CPI print flushed price to the 4073 low during NY hours, before a yield-led recovery from Thursday's Asia session built a rising tl of higher lows. Friday's NY spike to 4199 was rejected just under the week high, leaving price back below the ema20 near 4170 and just under the 23.6% fib of the 4073–4199 leg, with RSI(14) slipping into the mid-40s.
Support: 4,158.00, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,199.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the rising tl near 4158 and the fri low at 4147 would break the higher-low sequence in place since Thursday
Loss of the thu low at 4131 brings the 50% fib near 4136 and the lower half of the weekly range into view
A close back above the ema20 at 4170 keeps the rising tl structure intact; a close through the 4200 week high would break the range top
Thin data into next week leaves US yields as the main driver; Tuesday's housing data and any hawkish Fedspeak could shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; second rejection under week high.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's CPI-driven drop to 4073.55. Thursday's slide in Treasury yields and the softer USD carried it back through the week's range, from the PPI low at 4130.37 up to the Asia low and the NY low on Friday. The NY-session spike to 4198.77 stalled just under Tuesday's 4200.49 week high, a second rejection at the 4200 cap. Price has since slipped below EMA(20) near 4169 and is retesting the rising trendline off the PPI low, with RSI(14) back in the low 40s.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,169.40, 4,192.28, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the NY low at 4154.71 exposes the Asia low at 4147.22 and the 38.2% recovery fib near 4151
Loss of the PPI low at 4130.37 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 50–61.8% recovery fib zone (4136–4121) in focus
Recovery above EMA(20) at 4169 and the London high at 4192.28 brings the 4200.49 week high back into view
Calendar is thin into next week; a renewed rise in US yields or October hike odds is the main risk to the recovery structure
16:04 UTC
Recovery from CPI low, stalling under 4200 · RSI 49 · price 4,167.97
Higher lows since Thursday, capped twice at 4199–4200.
Tuesday's Asia rally was rejected at the 4200.49 week high, and hot September CPI on Wednesday drove the slide to the 4073.55 week low during NY hours. Lower yields and a softer USD fuelled Thursday's recovery despite the hot PPI. Higher lows have printed since, at 4130 (thu low), then 4147 and the 4154.71 swing low. Friday's NY push to 4198.77 was rejected at the same 4200 cap, and price is back below EMA(20) near 4174, holding the 23.6% retrace of the CPI-low-to-Friday-high leg with RSI(14) back to ~49.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,174.00, 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high breaks the double cap and opens the 4230 range top
Failure to hold the 4154.71 swing low, near the 38.2% fib at ~4151, breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4130 thu low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 4174 restores the recovery structure off the CPI low
Weekend IMF Fedspeak and any yield rebound could gap price back toward the 4073.55 week low area
15:04 UTC
Uptrend off Wednesday's CPI low, stalling under 4200 · RSI 61 · price 4,184.40
Higher lows since Wednesday, capped below Tuesday's week high.
Gold has recovered the entire CPI-driven slide to the 4073.55 Wednesday low, with Thursday's risk-off drop in yields and USD carrying it back through 4150. It has printed higher lows at 4130.37, 4147.22 and the 4154.71 swing low. The NY open today produced a 4154.71–4198.77 swing that held the higher-low sequence, but the bar was rejected just below Tuesday's 4200.49 week high. Price sits above the ema20 near 4176 with RSI(14) around 61, short of overbought.
Support: 4,176.00, 4,154.71, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high opens the path toward the 4230 range top
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 4154.71 swing low ends the recovery sequence, exposing the 4130.37 thu low
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4176 keep the higher-low structure intact
A yield rebound or hawkish remarks around the weekend IMF meetings could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
14:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 64 · price 4,190.20
Higher lows since Wednesday's 4073.55 low; 4200 cap intact since Tuesday.
The rebound from Wednesday's CPI-driven low at 4073.55 has printed a run of higher lows at 4130.4 (thu low), 4147 and 4154.7, and price has retraced almost all of the 4200→4074 drop as softer USD and falling yields outweighed hot US data. Friday's Industrial Production beat sent a sharp NY-open dip to the 4154.7 swing low, which was fully reclaimed within the hour, and price now holds above EMA(20) near 4175. RSI(14) sits near 64, short of overbought. Price is just under the 4192.3 day high, and the 4200.5 week high from Tuesday's Asian session has capped the move all week.
Support: 4,175.00, 4,154.70, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,192.30, 4,200.50, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.5 week high would break the weekly cap and open the 4230 range top
Failure to hold the 4154.7 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 4130.4 thu low
A test of 4200 on lower RSI(14) than the 4192.3 day high would point to momentum fading under the cap
Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
13:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the CPI low, stalling below 4200 · RSI 56 · price 4,169.41
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, lower high under the 4200 cap.
Wednesday's hot CPI print drove the NY-session drop to the 4073.55 week low. The move reversed as Thursday's PPI and retail-sales beats were faded alongside softer yields and USD: the ppi low at 4130.37 held and higher lows carried price to Friday's London-morning high at 4192.28, a second stall under Tuesday's 4200.49 week high. Price has eased back onto EMA(20) near 4168 and the higher lows trendline around 4164, close to the 23.6% retracement of the CPI low–friday high leg, with RSI(14) cooling to ~56 from ~70 at the high.
Support: 4,164.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher lows trendline near 4164 puts price back under EMA(20) and exposes the friday low at 4147.22, near the 38.2% retracement
Failure to hold the ppi low at 4130.37 breaks the higher-low sequence from the CPI low
H1 close above the friday high 4192.28 and the 4200.49 week high clears the 4200 cap and opens the October range top near 4230
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Recovery from CPI low, stalling below week high · RSI 55 · price 4,172.08
Higher lows since Wednesday, lower high under 4200.
Gold has retraced almost all of Wednesday's NY-session CPI drop to 4073.55. Thursday's PPI and retail beats were faded as the USD softened, and gains came mainly in Asia hours, carrying price to a 4192.28 day high in London. The recovery printed a higher low at 4130 and an Asia low at 4147.22, near the 38.2% recovery fib, but stalled under Tuesday's 4200.49 week high, leaving a lower high and a rejection back toward EMA(20) near 4169.5. RSI(14) has cooled to ~55, and price sits mid-range between 4147 and 4200.
Support: 4,169.50, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read around the ema20
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high breaks the lower highs line and the range top
Failure to hold the 4147.22 asia low, then 4130 higher low, breaks the higher-lows sequence
Day high at 4192.28 is the first area to watch for rejection or break
Repricing of October hike odds back toward 42% would pressure the recovery
Higher lows from 4073 CPI low, lower high vs 4200 week high.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's CPI drop to 4073.55. Thursday's PPI dip held 4130 and Friday's Asia low at 4147 sat on the 38.2% fib as falling yields and a softer USD drove the rebound. London pushed to a 4192.28 london high but was rejected short of Tuesday's 4200.49 week high, and price is now back on EMA(20) near 4169, which lines up with the rising trendline, while RSI(14) has eased from ~65 to 55.
Support: 4,169.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below 4169 (ema20 and rising trendline) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4147 asia low / 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 4130 ppi low unwinds Thursday's recovery and brings the 4073 CPI low back into view
H1 close above the 4200 week high, beyond the 4192 london high, opens the 4230 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; a renewed rise in yields is the main downside risk
Higher lows from 4073.55 under lower highs from 4200.49, compressing below the range top.
Gold has retraced most of Wednesday's CPI-driven NY session slide to 4073.55. Falling yields and a softer USD after Warsh's remarks have since built higher lows at the thursday low of 4130.37 and the friday low of 4147.22, which sits on the 38.2% level of the recovery fib. Friday's push from the Asia session into the London session stalled at the friday high of 4192.28, a rejection just below the 4200.49 week high, and price has slipped back toward the ema20 near 4172 with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,172.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high breaks the lower highs sequence and the two-week range top
Loss of the ema20 near 4172 turns focus to the friday low at 4147.22, the recovery fib 38.2% confluence
Break below the thursday low at 4130.37 undoes the higher lows structure built since Wednesday
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the yield-driven read during NY hours
Higher highs and higher lows since the CPI low, pressing the range top.
Gold has retraced roughly 90% of the week drop from Tuesday's 4200.49 week high to Wednesday's CPI low at 4073.55. The CPI-day break below the range proved a false break, and higher lows have followed on Thursday's yield slide and the softer USD after Warsh's neutral remarks. Friday's Asia-to-London advance cleared the 4176.45 thu high and set a session high at 4189.84, near the weekly open. Price is holding above EMA(20), and RSI(14) sits in the low 60s, with the week high above as the range top where Tuesday's rally was rejected.
Support: 4,176.45, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high would end the two-week range read
Failure to hold the 4176.45 thu high puts the 4147.22 higher low back in focus
A break of the 4147.22 higher low, then the 4130.37 thu low, would undo the higher-lows sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read via yields
08:03 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday's CPI low, testing range top · RSI 63 · price 4,184.75
Higher lows off 4073.55, approaching week high.
Since Wednesday's CPI-driven NY-hours low at 4073.55, H1 has printed higher lows: the 4130.37 higher low on Thursday, then the 4147.22 asian low on Friday. Falling yields and a softer USD have unwound the hot-data selloff. Price has retraced close to 90% of the CPI drop, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 63, and has cleared Thursday's high at 4176.45. It is now pressing the London session high at 4189.84 just under the 4194.60 weekly open and Tuesday's 4200.49 week high, the top of the two-week range.
Support: 4,176.45, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,194.60, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high breaks the two-week range top; rejection below the weekly open at 4194.60 keeps the range intact
Failure to hold Thursday's high at 4176.45 and then the 4147.22 asian low would break the higher-lows sequence
A break below the 4130.37 higher low reopens the lower half of the CPI drop
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%): a strong beat with firmer yields could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wed low, pressing upper half of weekly range.
Wednesday's hot CPI print drove an NY-session flush to 4073.55. The cpi rebound that began in Thursday's Asia session has since built higher lows at the 4130 ppi low and Friday's 4147 asian low as yields slid and USD sank to a two-week low. Price holds above a rising ema20 near 4167 with RSI(14) near 63, testing the 4186 friday high just under the 4200 tuesday high and 4204 monday high that capped the week's opening sessions.
Support: 4,167.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,200.49, 4,204.41
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 tuesday high would break the top of the weekly range
Failure to hold the 4147 asian low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 4130 ppi low
Repeated rejection at the 4186 friday high with RSI(14) failing to clear 65 would point to stalling momentum under the range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift yields and materially change this read
06:04 UTC
Rebounding, higher highs and higher lows since Wed CPI low · RSI 61 · price 4,176.58
V-shaped recovery off 4073.55 back inside the Mon–Tue 4146–4208 range.
Wednesday's CPI-driven drop to the 4073.55 week low has been mostly retraced. The rebound has printed higher lows since then and pulled price back inside the Mon–Tue range, as falling yields and a softer USD outweighed Thursday's hot PPI. The Asia session drove both Thursday's leg and today's push to a 4186 session high around Warsh's neutral IMF remarks. Price holds above the ema20 near 4164 with RSI(14) near 61, while the 4200 tue high that rejected Tuesday's rally still caps the range.
Support: 4,164.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,200.49, 4,208.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 tue high would mark a break of the week's range cap, with the 4208 week high the next reference
Loss of the 4147 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rebound trendline
Close below the 4130 ppi low, near the 50% of the rebound fib, reopens the path toward the CPI low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift yields and materially change this read
05:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the CPI low, momentum steady · RSI 60 · price 4,175.64
Higher highs and higher lows since 4073; pressing the early-week 4186–4200 area.
Gold has retraced roughly 80% of the drop from the 4200 Tuesday high to Wednesday's 4073 CPI low. Thursday's yield slide drove the rebound despite the hot PPI print. Higher lows at the 4130 PPI low and today's 4147 Asia low keep the recovery structure intact, with price holding above EMA(20) near 4160 and RSI(14) around 60. Friday's Asia-session push cleared Thursday's 4176 high to set a day high at 4186, just below the Tuesday high where the week's first rally was rejected.
Support: 4,160.40, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,200.49, 4,212.08
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 Tuesday high would put the 4212 week open and the 4230 reversal-confirmation level back in play
Break below the 4147 Asia low and the higher-low trendline would undercut the recovery structure, with the 4130 PPI low the next reference
Loss of EMA(20) near 4160 would mark the first failed pullback hold since the CPI low
Warsh speech tone on an October hike could materially shift this read; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC follows
Higher lows since the CPI washout, price back below the week open.
The week opened at 4209 and sold off from the Monday week high. The tuesday high at 4200 capped an Asia-session rally. Wednesday's hot CPI print flushed price to 4073 in NY hours, but the move below the two-week range proved a false break as yields slid, and Wednesday's drop has been fully retraced.
The recovery leg has printed rising lows at the thursday low (4130) and the friday low (4147). Price is pushing 4183 into Warsh's speech, holding above the H1 ema20 with RSI(14) in the low 60s, short of overbought.
Support: 4,164.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,209.22, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Warsh's speech is live now: a hawkish read on an October hike could unwind the recovery leg quickly
An H1 close above the tuesday high at 4200 brings the weekly open at 4209 and the week high at 4217 into play
Failure to hold the friday low at 4147 breaks the rising lows and exposes the thursday low at 4130
Loss of the ema20 near 4164 would mark the first pullback below it since Thursday's NY session
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is a secondary risk during the NY session
03:03 UTC
Short-term uptrend off CPI low, inside weekly range · RSI 62 · price 4,175.73
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; 4200 cap overhead.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's post-CPI week low at 4073.55. It has reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the week's drop and pushed to a session high at 4179.92 in the Asia session as yields and the USD retreated despite Thursday's hot PPI. Price sits above the EMA(20) near 4160 with RSI(14) around 61, and the rising lows line runs through Friday's 4147 swing low. Overhead, supply has capped near 4200 since the Tue high, with Monday's week high at 4217 above that.
Support: 4,160.00, 4,147.22, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,179.92, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A hawkish rebuild in hike odds would put the 4147 swing low and the 4130 PPI low back in focus.
An H1 close above the 4200 Tue high opens the path to the 4217 week high.
A close below the rising lows line and the 4147 swing low ends the higher-low sequence.
Rejection at the 4179.92 session high, followed by a loss of the ema20, would return price to the middle of the range.
02:05 UTC
Two-way; V-recovery from CPI low stalling below weekly open · RSI 53 · price 4,155.90
Gold opened the week at 4186.5 and printed lower highs from 4217 through Wednesday, when the hot US CPI print flushed it to the 4073.6 cpi low during NY hours. Thursday's yield slide drove a V-shaped recovery to the 4176.5 thu high late in NY, briefly lifting through the week lower highs trendline before Asia slipped back below it and through Thursday's rising line. Price now sits at 4156, just above EMA(20) at 4153 and EMA(50) at 4150, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and the asia low at 4147 holding so far.
Support: 4,147.20, 4,130.40, 4,073.60
Resistance: 4,176.50, 4,186.50, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC. Hike-odds repricing could materially shift this read.
H1 close below the 4147 asia low and EMA(50) exposes the 4130 thu low, near the 38.2% fib of the cpi low to thu high move.
H1 close back above the 4176.5 thu high negates the false break and opens the weekly open at 4186.5, then the 4200.5 tue high.
Failure to hold the 4130 thu low puts the 4074 cpi low back in focus.
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, capped below the week open.
Gold has rotated inside a 4073–4217 range all week. Monday's Asia high faded into a slide, and Wednesday's hot CPI print set the week low at 4073 during NY hours. Thursday's retreat in yields and the USD drove a rebound to the Thursday high at 4177, with the PPI-hour dip holding at 4130 as a higher low. Friday's Asia session has given back part of that move, slipping under the rising line from Wednesday's low to sit on the ema20 near 4152, still below the week open at 4188 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Hourly close below the ppi low at 4130 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% of the CPI rebound fib near 4125, then the week low at 4073
Holding the ema20 near 4152 and the 38.2% fib near 4138 keeps the rebound structure intact despite the rising line giving way
Clearing the thu high at 4177 brings the week open at 4188 and the tue high near 4200 back into focus
Lower highs from 4217 week high; higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low.
Gold opened the week near 4188.6 and was rejected at the 4217.3 week high in Monday's Asia session. The 4200.5 tue high and the 4177.4 thu high trace a lower-highs line. Wednesday's hot CPI drove a NY-session flush to the 4073.6 week low, but Thursday's 10bp yield slide reversed most of that move: the PPI bar wicked to the 4130.4 thu low before late-NY buying lifted price to the highs, and price has since eased in early Asia to sit on EMA(20) near 4152.6, around the 23.6% of the CPI rebound fib, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 4,152.60, 4,130.40, 4,073.60
Resistance: 4,177.40, 4,200.50, 4,217.30
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next few bars
An H1 close below the 4130.4 thu low would undercut the 50% of the CPI rebound fib (~4125) and expose 4100, then the 4073.6 week low
An H1 close above the 4177.4 thu high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 4200.5 tue high, then the 4217.3 week high
Sustained trade below EMA(20) would confirm the Thursday rebound has stalled inside the range