Higher lows since Wednesday inside a 4073–4200 weekly range.
Gold rebounded from Wednesday's post-CPI low at 4073.55 as Treasury yields slid on Thursday. It held the 4130.37 ppi low and printed higher lows into Friday, but the recovery stalled at 4198.77 during Friday's NY session, just short of Monday's 4200.49 week high, as yields firmed again. Friday's pullback held the 4155.84 friday low, above the 38.2% retracement of the CPI-low rally, and Sunday's reopen has lifted price above the 4168.37 weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 4,168.37, 4,155.84, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high opens the path toward the 4230 range top
Failure to hold the 4155.84 friday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4130.37 ppi low
Slip back below the 4168.37 weekly open returns price to Friday's 4155–4170 chop
Monday-open reaction to Hormuz shipping headlines could materially shift this read via oil and haven flows
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits feed October hike pricing, which has driven the week's swings
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; second rejection at the 4200 range top.
Gold was capped at the 4200 week high in Tuesday's Asian session. The hot CPI print hit in the first hour of NY Wednesday and drove price to the 4074 CPI low, then Thursday's slide in yields rebuilt a sequence of higher lows through the 4131 thursday low. Friday's NY push stalled at 4198.77, a second rejection at the range top, and gold faded into the close as yields firmed. The week ended just under EMA(20) near 4169, above EMA(50), between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the CPI-low-to-Friday-high leg, with RSI(14) back to the mid-40s.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,131.00, 4,074.00
Resistance: 4,169.00, 4,199.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4199 week high breaks the range top that has capped two attempts this week
Failure to hold the 4155 ny low, then the 4131 thursday low, ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4074 cpi low
Price reclaiming ema20 near 4169 would restore the Friday recovery structure
Weekend IMF headlines may produce a gap at the open
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
4073–4200 range; higher lows since CPI low, 4200 capping twice.
Tuesday's Asia push stalled at the 4200 cap. Wednesday's hot CPI then drove a NY-session slide to the 4073.55 cpi low, and Thursday's yield drop powered a post-CPI rebound with higher lows at the 4130 thu low and 4147. Friday's NY spike to 4198.77 was rejected just shy of 4200 again, and price has slipped back below the ema20 near 4169, with RSI(14) easing to ~45 while it still holds above the 38.2% fib at 4151.
Support: 4,150.94, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,169.10, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap breaks the range top and the double rejection read
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 4151 and then the thu low at 4130 ends the post-CPI higher-low sequence
A break below the 4073.55 cpi low confirms a range break to the downside
Weekend IMF headlines may produce a gap at Monday's open
Tue Oct 20 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits could materially shift this read via yields and October hike odds