21:06 UTC
Range after September decline, mild lower highs · RSI 54 · price 4,165.79
4066–4227 range; lower highs capping, twin lows near 4070.
After the late-September slide from 4383, gold has held a 4066–4227 range for nearly three weeks. Each rally has stalled at a slightly lower high, near 4199 most recently. The hot CPI pushed price to the cpi low at 4073, which held just above the range low at 4066 and left a double-bottom shape. The rebound then stalled at the 61.8% retracement near 4162 as falling yields cushioned the hot PPI and retail data. EMA(20) and EMA(50) have flattened and converged just below price, and ATR(14) near 3100 pips shows no clear compression.
Support: 4,131.00, 4,073.00, 4,066.00
Resistance: 4,199.00, 4,227.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 4199 lower highs and the 4227 range top would break the lower-high sequence and complete the double bottom
- Loss of the 4131 swing lows reopens the cpi low at 4073 and range low at 4066
- H4 close below 4066 range low confirms the range resolving lower
- Housing starts (Tue), jobless claims (Thu) and S&P PMIs (Fri) feed October FOMC hike pricing and could shift this read