Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 30 · price 4,011.29
Lower highs / lower lows, broke March trough.
Gold has been in a sustained multi-month decline from the early-March peak above 5400, accelerating over the last two weeks as the regime flipped toward Fed-hike pricing and a 13-month-high dollar. Price has lost the March trough and printed a fresh 7-month low at 3959 before stabilising right on the 4000 psychological mark; in-line PCE failed to halt the slide. RSI on D1 is oversold near 30, the first meaningful exhaustion signal in this leg, with price well below a falling EMA(50).
Support: 3,959.13, 3,885.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 3885 oct support risks a persistent downtrend
- Reclaim of 4000 psych needed before 4100 march low comes into play
- Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations — a beat feeds the hawkish-Fed, gold-bearish read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 30 · price 4,011.29
Lower highs and lower lows since April.
Gold is in an accelerated D1 downtrend, printing a fresh 7-month low near 3,959 this week after losing the March-low shelf around 4,100; price trades well below a falling EMA(50), the swing-trend filter. The regime flip toward Fed rate-hike pricing and a 13-month-high dollar has driven the slide, with in-line PCE failing to stem it. RSI near 30 marks genuine D1 oversold, the first such stretch since the February break.
What it said to watch
- Loss of the 3,930-3,885 October trough opens a more persistent leg lower
- Daily close back above 4,100 would challenge the lower-high structure
- UoM inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) plus Williams/Kashkari speeches could materially shift this read