Lower highs and lower lows; 3870–3888 range into weekly close.
Gold fell from the 3999 London bounce high through the 3900 round number in the first hours of NY, a leg the market digest ties to position liquidation alongside firm USD and yields. It then printed a 3870.26 session low, and the last hours into the weekly close ranged 3870–3888 beneath the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 35 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3870.26 session low on the Monday reopen extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 3887.73 late high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence
Reclaim of the 3900 round number, broken in NY, shifts the next reference to the 3923.78 NY bounce high near the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; NY broke the 3891 prior low.
Liquidation through the NY session took gold below the 3891.59 prior low to a session low at 3870.54. The bounce to the 3887.73 bounce high was rejected under that broken level and the trendline from the 3923.78 lower high. RSI(14) sits near 31 into the final bars of the week, still clear of oversold.
Support: 3,870.54, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,891.59, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
A close back above the 3891.59 prior low and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 3870.54 session low exposes the 3850 round number
The 38.2% fib of the 3923.78–3870.54 leg sits at ~3891, overlapping the prior low as a cap
Weekend gap risk at Monday's open, then ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 GMT could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into the Friday close · RSI 38 · price 3,879.15
Lower highs and lows; tight 3876–3888 box above the session low.
Friday's equity-driven liquidation broke the Asian range low near 3980 in London and accelerated through 3900 in NY. The 3891.59 prior low gave way late in the session to a 3870.26 session low, which drew a sharp rejection. Price has since compressed between the 3876 box floor and the 3887.73 bounce high, capped under the descending trendline from the NY high, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 3,876.32, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,891.59, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 3891.59 prior low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the ny high-to-low leg, would turn the late-day stall into a recovery attempt
Loss of the 3876 box floor and then the 3870.26 session low resumes the lower-low chain
A break of the descending trendline from the 3923.78 ny high is needed to shift the lower-high structure
Weekend gap risk at Monday's open, with ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT Monday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 3923.78 bounce; new session low at 3870.26 then a one-bar rebound.
Liquidation selling tied to the tech-equity rout took gold through $3,900 and the 3891.59 prior low during NY hours. Late NY ran stops under the 3876.34 swing low to a 3870.26 session low, then a sharp one-bar rebound stalled at 3887.73, the bounce high. Price sits just under EMA20, the lower-high sequence is intact and the old prior low lines up with the 38.2% fib.
Support: 3,876.34, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,887.73, 3,891.59, 3,902.99
What it said to watch
A close back above the 3891.59 prior low (38.2% fib) would end the lower-high sequence and put the 3902.99 swing high (61.8%) in view
A failure to hold the 3876.34 swing low reopens the 3870.26 session low
The Friday close is under an hour away, so weekend gap risk applies to Monday's open
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid, Mon 15:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; minor base swept, lower-high line poked.
Asia faded from 4026, London broke 3965 and NY extended the forced-selling flush through 3900 and the 3891.59 1y low, with lower highs capping every bounce since. Late NY swept the 3876 minor base to a 3870.26 session low before a $15 rebound poked through the lower-high line. RSI(14) is near 37 and price is still under EMA20 into the weekly close.
Support: 3,876.30, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,885.27, 3,891.59, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
Clearance of the 3885.27 bounce high would confirm the lower-high line break
A close back above the 3891.59 1y low, at the 38.2% level of the 3923.78–3870.26 retrace, would mark a structural recovery; the round number at 3900 sits above
Failure to hold the 3870.26 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Weekend gap risk at the Monday open, then ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding to fresh lows late NY · RSI 26 · price 3,872.93
Lower-high chain under descending trendline after break of 3891 prior low.
London broke the Asian range low near 3980. NY then extended the slide through the 3891 prior low as tech-led liquidation weighed on gold. The bounce high at 3923.78 failed, and late NY has carved lower highs under the descending trendline, the last at the 3884 swing high, to a session low at 3870.26 with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,884.04, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3891 prior low invalidates the breakdown read
Break above the 3884 swing high and the trendline ends the lower-high chain
Loss of the 3870 session low exposes the 3850 round number
Bounce high at 3923.78 caps any NY-close short-covering move
Weekend gap at Monday open; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding to fresh lows late NY · RSI 27 · price 3,875.23
Lower highs and lower lows since the 14:15 UTC low; Asian range broken lower.
Liquidation-led selling broke the Asian range low near 3980 at London open and the 3891.59 prior low in NY, with no haven bid. After London close, price ground to a fresh session low at 3874.91 along a descending trendline of lower highs at 3923.78, 3901.96 and 3884.76. RSI(14) is near 27 and the 3923.78 bounce high sits at the 38.2% fib of the 3999–3875 leg.
Support: 3,874.91, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,884.76, 3,891.59, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3884.76 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 3891.59 prior low, now resistance, opens the 3923.78 bounce high and 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 3874.91 session low leaves the 3850 round number as the next reference
Friday close into weekend gap risk; Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 3923.8 bounce high; tight 3876–3884 band forming late NY.
London broke below the Asian range, and the NY flush through 3900 ran to 3891.6. The bounce stalled at 3923.8, the 38.2% retrace of the London-high leg, and a slower grind under the lower-high trendline has since taken out that prior low, the digest reading the selling as liquidation alongside the tech rout rather than a rates move. Late NY is now compressing in a 3876–3884 band at the session low, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 3,876.32
Resistance: 3,884.04, 3,891.59, 3,900.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3884 micro high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 3891.6 prior low back in focus as overhead resistance
Failure to hold the 3876 session low extends the lower-low chain into the weekly close
Reclaim of the 3900 round number and the lower-high trendline would bring the 3923 fib 38.2 back into play
Weekly close inside ~2h with ISM Manufacturing Monday 15:00 UTC; weekend gap risk could materially shift this read
Liquidation-driven selling broke the Asian range low near 3,980 in London, and NY pressed it to 3,891.59 before the bounce stalled at the 3,923.78 bounce high. Since then a lower-high grind from 3,902.99 has broken that prior low, printing a fresh session low at 3,876.34 late in NY with RSI(14) near 26.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3,876.34 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3,850 round number
M15 close back above the 3,891.59 prior low, close to the 38.2% of the bounce high fib, would be the first break in the lower-high sequence; 3,902.99 lower high sits above
Reclaim of the 3,923.78 bounce high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Weekly close carries gap risk; Monday's ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower late NY · RSI 24 · price 3,882.65
Lower highs below 3900, fresh session low 3876.
Liquidation-led selling took gold from the 4026 Asian high through 4000 and the London low at 3965. The NY drop to 3891.6 then gave way late in the session to a 3876 session low. Price is holding a lower-high sequence below the 3900 psych level with RSI(14) near 24, and the 3923.8 bounce high caps the move at the 38.2% fib of the 3999–3876 leg.
Support: 3,876.34, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 3891.6 (prior low) would mark the late break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3876 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward 3850 psych
Reclaim of 3900 psych and the 3923.8 bounce high / 38.2% fib needed to break the lower-high structure
Weekend gap risk after a one-year-low close; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended and decelerating · RSI 19 · price 3,879.18
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; late-NY grind under a descending line.
Liquidation-led selling took gold from the 4026 Asian high through 4000 and the 3965 London low, then flushed to 3891.6 during NY. Late NY has since broken that prior low and set a session low at 3876.3, grinding along a lower-highs line with RSI(14) near 19 and bar ranges contracting. Above, the 3900 round number and the 3923.8 bounce high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the 3999–3876 leg, cap the tape.
Support: 3,876.34, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3891.6 prior low and the lower-highs line would be the first break in the sell sequence
Failure to hold the 3876.3 session low exposes the 3850 round number
Reclaim of the 3900 round number and the 3923.8 bounce high needed to read the move as more than a pause
Friday close at a one-year low brings weekend gap risk; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows late NY · RSI 15 · price 3,879.63
Lower highs and lower lows below 3900 since the 3923.78 bounce high.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3980 in London and fell through NY to 3891.59, with the tech-sell-off liquidation in the digest providing no haven bid. The bounce stalled at 3923.78 and price has since slipped below that prior low to a 3877.81 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 15.
Support: 3,877.81, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
Close back above the 3891.59 prior low would mark the first stall in the stair-step lower; the 3900 round number and 50% retrace of the NY leg sit just above
Break of the 3877.81 session low keeps the lower-low chain intact, with the 3850 round number next
Reclaim of the 3923.78 bounce high is needed to invalidate the NY downtrend structure
Friday close at a one-year low leaves weekend gap risk; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into weekly close · RSI 28 · price 3,882.62
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; post-crash bounce capped, fresh session low printed.
Gold broke below the Asian range (3987–4026) at the London open. The NY session then extended the liquidation through 3900 to an NY spike low at 3891.59, and the bounce stalled at 3923.78, near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop. Late NY has since printed lower highs along a falling trendline to a fresh session low at 3879.54, with RSI(14) near 28 and no divergence yet.
Support: 3,879.54
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3879.54 session low extends the lower-low chain into the weekly close
M15 close back above the 3891.59 NY spike low and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 3900 psych is the next cap
Only a recovery through the 3923.78 bounce high would challenge the downtrend read
Weekend gap risk from Middle East and oil headlines, then Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact into late NY · RSI 31 · price 3,883.58
Stair-step lower highs, fresh session low at 3880.05.
Gold lost the Asian range low near 3980 in London and broke through 3900 in NY as the tech-led sell-off drove liquidation. The bounce stalled at the 3923.78 swing high, and 3900 psych rejected twice around Musalem's remarks. The 3891.59 prior low is now overhead, and late NY is printing a new session low at 3880.05 with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not washed out.
Support: 3,880.05, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above 3900 psych and the lower-highs trendline breaks the stair-step sequence
Failure to hold the 3880.05 session low extends the leg toward 3850 psych
Reclaiming the 3923.78 swing high puts the 50% fib of the London high leg near 3940 in play
Weekly close carries weekend gap risk from Middle East and oil headlines; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC
17:33 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 33 · price 3,888.15
Lower highs and lower lows below 3900; fresh session low printed after London close.
Liquidation selling broke $4,000 in the Asia session and flushed through the 3900 psych level in the first hour of NY, hitting a prior low at 3891.59. The bounce stalled at a 3923.78 lower high. Since then a descending trendline of lower highs has driven a fresh 3886.08 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 3,886.08
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3900 psych level and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 3886.08 session low extends the lower-low chain; a reclaim of the 3891.59 prior low would show the flush stalling
Musalem's 16:30 GMT remarks are still being digested; a hawkish read keeps the 3923.78 lower high as the cap on any bounce
Friday weekly close and weekend gap risk from Middle East/oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 3923.78 bounce high, prior low 3891.59 giving way.
The NY-hours liquidation leg, a tech-sell-off deleveraging move per the digest, took gold from the London rebound high near 3999 down to a 3891.59 prior low. The bounce stalled at the 3923.78 bounce high, and lower highs then capped price under psych 3900 through Musalem's remarks. Price is now slipping below the prior low to a fresh session low at 3887.26 in late NY, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR(14) around $10.5.
Support: 3,887.26, 3,880.00
Resistance: 3,891.59, 3,900.00, 3,923.78
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3891.59 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaim of psych 3900 and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence; bounce high 3923.78 sits above
Sustained trade under the 3880 round number extends the session low sequence into the weekly close
Weekend gap risk from Middle East and oil headlines; Monday ISM Prices Paid could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 29 · price 3,895.47
Lower-high/lower-low chain; tight base under 3900.
The digest frames the tech sell-off as forced deleveraging rather than haven demand. Gold broke below the Asian range low near 3980 at London open, and the selling extended through NY to a 3891.59 session low, with the 3923.78 bounce high stalling below the 38.2% fib of the 3999–3891 leg. Since then price has compressed in a 3892–3902 band beneath the 3900 round number into late NY, with RSI(14) near 29 and no bounce after Musalem.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,959.98
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 3900 round number and then the 3923.78 bounce high would print the first higher high since London open
A break of the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low sequence
The 3959.98 broken low sits at the base of the $3,950–4,000 former support zone the digest flags as first resistance on any bounce
Weekly close and weekend Middle East/oil headlines carry gap risk for this read
London broke the Asian range low near 3980. The NY session then extended the slide to a 3891.59 session low as tech-driven deleveraging hit gold. The bounce stalled at 3923.78, short of the 38.2% fib of the 3999–3891 drop, and supply has capped price at the 3900 psych level for the past hour as bar ranges contract.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,953.86
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3923.78 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib near 3933 in play
Close below the 3891.59 session low resumes the NY selloff
Repeated failure to reclaim 3900 psych keeps the post-drop consolidation pinned to its lows
3954 breakdown zone from the NY open is the next cap if the range resolves higher
Musalem remarks (16:30 GMT), the Friday weekly close and weekend gap risk could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, holding just above 3891.59.
Gold broke $4,000 in Asia and London's bounce stalled at 3999. The NY open then extended the liquidation leg to a 3891.59 session low, and the rebound to 3923.78 failed as a lower high under the descending trendline. Price is now compressing just below the 3900 psych level with RSI(14) near 27, as equity-driven deleveraging keeps sellers in control.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming 3900 psych and breaking the trendline above the 3923.78 lower high would turn this into a corrective bounce. The 38.2% retracement sits near 3933, with the 3965 london low above
Fed's Musalem (16:30 GMT, under way) and weekend gap risk into the Friday close could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain; failed bounce off NY session low, price pressing that low.
Forced selling tied to the tech sell-off carried price through $3,900 during NY hours to a 3891.59 session low. The bounce high at 3923.78 stalled short of the 38.2% retrace (~3933) of the 3999–3891 drop. Lower highs since have price grinding back toward the low, with RSI(14) near 26 and the 3900 psych level now capping.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low chain into fresh lows
Reclaiming the 3900 psych level and then the 3923.78 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 GMT plus the Friday weekly close carry short-covering bounce risk off a stretched move
The london low at 3965, former support, sits near the 61.8% retrace (~3958) as the upper cap on any wider recovery
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY flush · RSI 23 · price 3,897.56
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, basing near session low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 3979 and the 3965 support. NY extended the slide to a session low at 3891.59 around the Chicago PMI miss, consistent with the liquidation-driven selling in the digest. The bounce stalled at a lower high of 3923.78, inside the fib of the 3999–3891 drop, and price is back below the 3900 round number with RSI(14) near 23.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) could materially shift this read in the next few bars
M15 close back above the 3900 round number and the 3923.78 lower high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 3891.59 session low confirms another lower-low leg
Recovery toward the 38.2% fib near 3933 and the broken support at 3965 would mark a deeper short-covering bounce
Lower highs and lower lows; NY bounce capped, retesting session low.
Liquidation selling broke the Asian range low and the 3965 London low during the London-NY transition, extending to a 3891.59 session low in the first hours of NY. The bounce stalled at the 3923.78 lower high, short of the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY drop. Price is back under the 3900 round number retesting the low with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,923.78, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
A break of the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low chain. A hold there with RSI above its 14:15 low would point to bullish divergence.
An M15 close above the 3923.78 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence.
Fed's Daly at 16:00 GMT and Musalem at 16:30 GMT could materially shift this read. A patient tone risks a short-covering push toward the 3965 London low.
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, bounce capped below the 38.2% fib.
Gold broke the Asian range low near 3980 in London, then accelerated through the 3965 prior low into NY, printing a session low at 3891.59. Liquidation and a USD/yield rebound outweighed haven demand. The bounce stalled at 3923.78, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the 3999–3891 leg, and price is drifting back toward the 3900 psych level with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,923.78, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
Close below the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 3923.78 bounce high and the NY trendline opens a retest of the 3965 prior low
Hold of the 3900 psych level keeps the post-low bounce structure intact
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off session low · RSI 30 · price 3,920.11
Lower highs/lows from 3999; NY selloff to 3891.59, bounce stalling below the 3931 breakdown.
Gold broke below the Asian range (3980–4026) after an early London probe of 3965. The selling accelerated in NY hours, cutting through the 3950 psych and the 3965 london low before reaching a 3891.59 session low as liquidation extended YTD lows. Price has since bounced about 29 to 3920, RSI(14) is back at 30 from deeper oversold readings, and the bounce sits just under the 3931 breakdown and the fib 38.2%.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,931.42, 3,950.00, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 3931 breakdown / fib 38.2% opens the 3950 psych and the fib 50% area
Failure to hold the 3900 psych re-exposes the 3891.59 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 3965 london low would undo the NY-session breakdown
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off session low · RSI 30 · price 3,920.11
Lower highs and lows since London; first higher low after NY flush.
London broke the Asian range low near 3987 and the 3965 area. A pullback stalled at the london high of 3999.33 under $4,000, and the NY open brought a liquidation leg to a session low of 3891.59. Price has since printed a higher low at 3898.76 and is bouncing near 3920, below the 38.2% retrace at 3933 and the broken low at 3937.16, with RSI(14) recovering to 30 from sub-20.
Support: 3,898.76, 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,937.16, 3,965.25, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
M15 close above the broken low at 3937.16 would put the lower-high trendline near 3950 and the 3965 area back in view
Loss of the 3898.76 higher low reopens the 3891.59 session low
Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Only a reclaim of the london high at 3999.33 and the $4,000 handle would break the lower-high sequence
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive NY leg, early bounce · RSI 24 · price 3,913.56
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, London low taken out in NY.
Gold broke the Asian range low near 3980 in London and set a 3965.25 london low. The 09:15 UTC lower high at 3999 held, and NY then broke the london low and slid to a 3891.59 session low as the USD and yields rebounded, extending the liquidation leg. A bounce off the 3900 psych has stalled near the 3917.78 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 24, and ATR is elevated at roughly $11.5 per bar.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,917.78, 3,937.16, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
A close below the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low sequence.
A recovery through the 3917.78 bounce high and the 3937 breakdown level, near the 38.2% fib at 3933, would signal the NY leg is correcting.
The london low at 3965.25, near the 61.8% fib, is the level the decline would need to reclaim to neutralise the breakdown.
Fed speakers Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) could materially shift this read.
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 21 · price 3,907.63
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, London low taken out.
Gold lost the 3965 London low before the NY open and slid to a 3891.59 session low through the first hour of NY as the USD and yields rebounded. Each bounce has stalled below the descending trendline from 3999. Price is now pausing just above the 3900 round number, with RSI(14) near 21 and ATR(14) around 1100 pips.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,891.59
Resistance: 3,921.25, 3,937.16, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 3921 breakdown bar high opens the 38.2% retracement of the 3999–3891 drop near 3933 and the 3937 ny open low
Failure to hold the 3900 round number and the 3891.59 session low extends the lower-low sequence
3965 former london low now sits overhead near the 61.8% retracement and the descending trendline
Fed's Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) within ~2h could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY session · RSI 13 · price 3,904.91
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low and printed the 3965.25 london low. The bounce stalled at 3999, and lower highs along the trendline then fed a first-hour-of-NY slide to a 3904.34 session low as the USD and yields rebounded after the in-line ECI. RSI(14) near 13 is deeply oversold and ATR is about $11 per bar, with the 3900 round number directly below.
Support: 3,904.34, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,940.00, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
A hold of the 3904 session low and 3900 round number would leave room for a reflex bounce toward the 3940 38.2% shelf, where the 13:00 breakdown occurred
Recovery through 3965 (london low and 61.8% retracement), plus a break of the lower-highs trendline, would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Acceptance below 3900 extends the lower-low sequence with RSI already sub-15
Fed's Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) could materially shift this read via hike-odds repricing
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into oversold · RSI 13 · price 3,918.02
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low, London low and YTD low all broken.
London broke the Asian range low near 3980 and probed the 3965 london low. The bounce to 3999 failed, and NY has since extended the lower-high chain through the 3941 ytd low to a 3915.61 session low, in line with the liquidation pressure flagged in the digest. RSI(14) near 13 is deeply oversold, and ATR is running near 980 pips, so the price is stretched about 40 below the fib 50% at 3957.5.
Support: 3,915.61, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,941.00, 3,957.50, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
A recovery and hold back above the 3941 ytd low would turn the NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 3915.61 session low opens the 3900 round number
The fib 50% at 3957.5 and the 3965 london low cap any bounce from oversold
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via December hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; YTD low broken in the first hour of NY.
London opened by breaking the Asian range low near 3979 and swept down to a 3965 London low. The first hour of NY pushed through the 3941 YTD low to a 3924 session low, with lower highs capped along the descending trendline from 3999. The digest attributes the selling to liquidation after hike bets firmed. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold, and ATR(14) is about $9.60.
Support: 3,924.36, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,941.00, 3,953.00, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI (13:45 GMT, f/c 56.1) is due now and could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 3941 YTD low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 3924 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3900 round number
A bounce into fib 38.2 at 3953 and the 3965 London low would test the descending trendline
Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) tone on a December hike could reprice the move
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended into the YTD low · RSI 22 · price 3,942.20
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; NY open probed below the YTD low.
London cut through the 3,965.25 London low and the first hour of NY extended to 3,937.16, a sweep under the 3,941 YTD low, with price now pinned at the level and RSI(14) near 22. Lower highs from 3,999 down to the 3,970.81 lower high define a falling trendline, consistent with the digest's hike-bet liquidation; the 3,955.7 breakdown pivot is first overhead.
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT, then Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30, could materially shift this read
M15 acceptance below the 3,937.16 session low turns the YTD low sweep into a clean break
A recovery through the 3,955.7 breakdown pivot and the 3,965.25 London low, near the 50% fib of the London high to NY low move, would break the lower-high trendline
The Asian range of 4026–3980 gave way before London. Price then broke the 3965 early low and printed a steady lower-high chain from the 3999 bounce high, as liquidation kept gold heavy despite softer yields. The 13:00 UTC bar dipped through the $3,941 ytd low to a 3937 sweep low and closed back at 3945, with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 3,941.00, 3,937.16
Resistance: 3,954.00, 3,965.25, 3,970.81
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) lands within the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 3941 ytd low turns the sweep into a confirmed breakdown
Reclaim of the 3954 prior low and the lower-high trendline would ease pressure; a break of the 3971 lower high ends the lower-high sequence
3965 early low sits near the 50% retrace of the 3999–3937 drop and is the first upside test
Fed's Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC are further event risk later in NY hours
Lower-high/lower-low chain below the broken Asian range.
Gold broke below the 3980 Asian range low at London open, and has since printed a chain of lower highs from the 3999 london high. The 3965 london low gave way at 12:00 UTC. The 12:30 UTC lower high at 3970.8 came on the in-line ECI spike, which faded as hike pricing kept pressure on gold. Price is now at fresh session lows on the 3950 round number in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 3,950.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,970.81, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a print above 57 as the trigger for a test of the 3941 ytd low
M15 close back above the 3965 london low, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 3950 round number exposes the 3941 ytd low
Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) on December hike odds could extend or reverse the move
Reclaim of the 3970.8 lower high on a close would invalidate the trendline
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 29 · price 3,958.25
Lower highs from 3999 London high; London low broken in first hour of NY.
Gold has carved lower highs under a falling trendline since the 3999.33 London high, and lost the 3965.25 London low in the first hour of NY. The ECI release bar spiked to 3970.81 before closing near a fresh session low at 3955.73. RSI(14) at 29, and the digest notes gold falling even as yields and the USD slip.
Support: 3,955.73, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,970.81, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 3965 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3955.73 session low exposes 3950 psych
Repeat rejection at the 3970.81 eci spike or the falling trendline (~3972) keeps the lower-high chain intact
Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC, then Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs since London's 3999 high; Asian low lost, session low just set.
London opened by breaking the asian low at 3980.18 and dipping to the 3965.25 july low. The bounce stalled at the 3999.33 london high, under $4,000. Lower highs since then took price to a 3959.29 session low into the ECI release, with RSI(14) near 26 and hawkish Fed-hike pricing still weighing on gold.
Support: 3,959.29, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,980.18, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
ECI Q3 (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) prints into the current bar and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 3959.29 session low exposes the 3950 round number
M15 close back above the 3965.25 july low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 3980.18 asian low, near the 50% retrace of the London leg (~3979), breaks the lower highs line
Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) during NY hours
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into new session low · RSI 24 · price 3,962.24
Lower highs from 3999 London high, 3965 low broken.
Gold has stepped lower through London. Each rebound capped under the lower-high trendline from the 3999 London high, and price has now broken the 3965 low left at London open to print a session low at 3959. RSI(14) sits near 24. The move extends Thursday's GDP/PCE-driven slide as December hike pricing dominates, with supply capping rallies even as yields and the USD ease. ECI lands next bar.
Support: 3,959.29, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,979.30, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) lands within the next bar and could materially shift this read
Acceptance back above the 3965 broken low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 3959 session low exposes the 3950 psych level
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 3979 fib 50% would break the sequence of lower highs from the 3999 London high
Fed's Daly at 16:00 GMT and Musalem at 16:30 GMT are further risk later in the NY session
LH/LL chain since 3999.33 rejection; price pressing through 3965.25 prior low.
The early-London bounce stalled at the 3999.33 swing high just under $4,000. Since then gold has printed a lower high at 3993.21 and is slipping through the 3965.25 prior low to a new session low, its lowest since July, with hawkish Fed hike pricing keeping it heavy. RSI(14) at 27 is nearing oversold into the London-NY transition, with ECI due at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 3,962.90, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,993.21, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read within the next bar or two
M15 close back above the 3965.25 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 3962.90 session low opens the 3950 round number
Reclaim of the 3993.21 lower high and the descending trendline from 4011.51 breaks the LH/LL sequence
Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) remarks on a December hike are a second event risk
Lower-high/lower-low chain; price coiling just above session low after second test.
Gold broke the asian low at 3980 early in the London session and printed a session low at 3965.25, the lowest since July, as hawkish Fed hike pricing kept the metal heavy despite a softer USD. The bounce met rejection at the 3999.33 london high, just under 4000. A lower high at 3993.21 followed, and the retest at 3966.56 leaves price pinned near the lows ahead of the NY open. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is around 740 pips.
Support: 3,965.25, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,980.18, 3,993.21, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and the NY open could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 3965.25 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the path to the 3950 psych level
Reclaim of the 3980 asian low and the falling trendline near 3988 would ease the downtrend read
Close above the 3993.21 lower high and the 3999.33 london high negates the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since London rejection under 4000, retesting the 3965 low.
Gold extended its post-GDP slide through 4000 in the Asia session, then early London broke the asian low at 3980.18 and set a session low at 3965.25. The rebound was rejected at 3999.33, the london high just under 4000 and between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian drop. Lower highs since have pulled price back to retest the session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold.
Support: 3,965.25, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,980.18, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
US Q3 ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%), about an hour away, could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45 GMT
A break below the 3965.25 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 3950 psych zone in play
An M15 close back above the 3980.18 asian low would end the lower-high sequence; the 3999.33 london high and 4000 sit above
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 3,975.82
Lower highs below 4000 after the rebound, pressing toward the session low.
Gold swept the Asian low into London open to a 3965.25 session low, then rebounded. That rebound met rejection at 3999.33, just under 4000 psych, and London has since printed lower highs at 3993.21 and 3982.48 under a descending trendline. Price is back below the 61.8% of the rebound fib and testing the 3974.18 swing low, RSI(14) near 35, consistent with the liquidation-driven selling the digest describes.
Support: 3,974.18, 3,965.25, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,982.48, 3,993.21, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3974.18 swing low puts the 3965.25 session low back in play; a break there exposes the 3950 psych zone
M15 close above the 3982.48 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
Reclaim of 4000 psych would negate the rejection at the rebound high
US Q3 ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY; Daly (16:00 GMT) and Musalem (16:30 GMT) follow
London broke below the Asian low, bounce capped under 4000.
London extended the overnight slide below the Asian low to a 3965.25 swing low, the weakest since mid-July, as hike bets firmed after yesterday's in-line PCE and GDP beat. The rebound met rejection at 3999.33, just shy of the 4000 psych level. A lower high at 3993.21 has since pushed price back toward the 3974.18 session low, below both EMAs.
Support: 3,974.18, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,993.21, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
US Q3 ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) can reset this read ahead of the NY open
M15 close above the 3993.21 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence
Reclaiming the 4000 psych level would mark the first failed break of the London lows
Failure to hold the 3974.18 session low exposes the 3965.25 swing low
Lower highs under falling trendline, retesting asian low mid-London.
London open swept below the 3980.2 asian low to a 3965.25 swing low, with gold heavy on hawkish Fed pricing. The rebound stalled at the 3999.3 london high, just shy of $4,000, and a 3993.2 lower high followed along the falling trendline. Price is now back on the asian low, near the 61.8% level of the rebound fib, RSI(14) 42.
Support: 3,980.20, 3,965.25, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,993.20, 3,999.30, 4,011.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3980.2 asian low re-exposes the 3965.25 swing low, then the 3950 round number
Close above the 3993.2 lower high and falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 3999.3 london high and 4011.5 swing high sit above
US Q3 ECI at 12:30 GMT, then Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 44 · price 3,981.08
Lower highs from 4011.51 to 3999.33; London bounce off 3965 capped under 4000.
London open swept the Asian low with a spike to 3965.25, a fresh multi-month low as hawkish Fed pricing outweighs a softer USD. The bounce met rejection at the 3999.33 London high, just under 4000, and extended the lower-highs trendline from the 4011.51 swing high. Price has since lost the 3990–3992 London shelf and is retesting the 3980 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 3,980.18, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,992.00, 3,999.33, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3980 Asian low reopens the 3965.25 session low
Recovery above the 3992 London shelf and the 3999.33 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 4011.51 swing high is the next cap
US ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Daly and Musalem later in the NY session
Lower highs below 4000 after Asia break; London rebound capped under psych.
Gold lost 4000 during Asia. Early London swept below the 3979.35 Asian low to the 3965.25 London low, and the rebound stalled at the 3999.33 session high just under 4000 psych. A further lower high at 3993.21 has pulled price back to 3982, the 38.2% level of the fib 4011-3965 swing, with the heaviness tracking hawkish-Fed bets and liquidation despite a softer USD.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,993.21, 3,999.33, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3999.33 session high and 4000 psych breaks the lower-high trendline and undoes the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3979.35 Asian low reopens the 3965.25 London low
A move back above the 4011.51 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read; Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC follow
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London low · RSI 49 · price 3,990.86
Lower highs below 4000; tight 3987–3999 box after sweep to 3965.
Gold lost the 4000 psych level during the Asia session as hawkish-Fed liquidation pressure persisted. The London open briefly pushed price through the ~3975 monthly low to a 3965.25 session low, and the rebound stalled at 3999.33, just under 4000 and the descending trendline. Price is now holding a 3987–3999 box between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4011–3965 drop, with RSI(14) flat near 49 ahead of US ECI.
Support: 3,987.45, 3,975.00, 3,965.25
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4000 psych and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, opening 4011.51 swing high
Loss of the 3987.45 micro low re-exposes the 3975 monthly low and 3965.25 session low
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; London sweep low, then rebound rejected under 4000.
Gold stayed heavy below 4000 on hawkish-Fed pricing. The lower-high chain from the 4026.34 Asian high extended in early London with a sweep through the 3979–3980 prior lows to 3965.25. The rebound was rejected at 3999.33 under the lower-highs trendline, and price is now compressing around the EMA20 near 3990, close to the 50% of the 4011–3965 fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,999.33, 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
Close above the 3999.33 rejection and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4011.51 swing high next
Failure to hold the 3979 prior lows reopens the 3965.25 sweep low
Asian high at 4026.34 caps the session range; only a reclaim would void the Asia-to-London downtrend read
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read; Fed's Daly and Musalem follow later in NY hours
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound stalling · RSI 49 · price 3,991.28
Lower highs below 4000, sweep of Asian low reclaimed.
London broke the 3987.47 Asian low and swept to the 3965.25 London low before recovering. The rebound was rejected at the 3999.33 London high, just under 4000 psych, which keeps the lower-high sequence from the 4011.51 swing high intact. Price is sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that drop with RSI(14) near 49, while hawkish-Fed pricing keeps gold heavy below 4000.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,979.35, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,999.33, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3999.33 london high and 4000 reclaims the psych level and tests the lower-high trendline
A break back below the 3987.47 asian low exposes the 3979.35 london base
Failure to hold the 3965.25 london low confirms a fresh lower low
A close above the 4011.51 swing high invalidates the lower-high read
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, then Chicago PMI and Fed's Daly/Musalem, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; sweep to 3965 then rebound capped under 4000.
Early Europe broke the 3979 prior low and swept to a 3965.25 session low before the rebound stalled at 3999.33, just under 4000 psych. The lower-high chain from Asia holds, matching the liquidation-driven tone in gold. Price sits near 3991, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 4011.5–3965.3 drop, with RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 3,982.90, 3,979.40, 3,965.25
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4000 psych and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4011.5 swing high in view
Failure to hold the 3983 fib 38.2 and the 3979 prior low reopens the 3965 session low
US ECI 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT and Fed's Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, sharp rebound off London low · RSI 51 · price 3,996.93
Lower highs from Asian high, rebound testing 4000 psych.
Gold stays heavy on hawkish-Fed bets. Early London swept below the 3979.4 double low and the ~3975 monthly-low area to a 3965.25 session low, then reclaimed it in a ~$34 rebound. Price is now pressing the 4000 psych level, near the 50% fib of the move down from the Asian high and just under the falling trendline from Asia's lower highs.
Support: 3,979.40, 3,965.25
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4011.51 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 4026.34 asian high into view
Rejection at 4000 psych followed by a loss of the 3979.4 double low reopens the 3965.25 session low
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4026 to 4011.5; 3965 low reversed, bounce stalling at 50% retrace.
Asia broke below 4000 and printed a lower-highs chain, 4026 to 4011.5, as hawkish-Fed pricing kept gold heavy. A spike to the 3965.25 session low into London open reversed sharply. The early London bounce has stalled at the 50% retrace and rebound high near 3988–3990, with RSI(14) at 46 and price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 3,979.40, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,990.26, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3990 rebound high and 4000 psych breaks the lower-highs sequence; the descending lower-highs line sits near 4004 and the 4011.5 lower high is above it
Failure back below the 3979 swing low reopens the 3965 session low
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4032.60; London sweep to 3965 reclaimed.
Gold lost the 4000 psych level in Asia as hike bets from yesterday's GDP beat held, and the London open extended the slide to a 3965.25 session low before snapping back above the 3979 swing low. The bounce stalled at 3990.26, near the 50% fib of the 4011–3965 leg, and stays under the lower-highs trendline with price below both EMAs.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,990.26, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 3990 bounce high and 4000 psych would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 3979 swing low re-exposes the 3965 session low
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-highs trendline near 4005 and the 4011.51 swing high cap the structure
Lower highs from Asia; London sweep below 3975 reclaimed.
Gold carried Asia's lower-high sequence into the London session. The first hour of London brought a sweep to 3965.25 below the 3975 monthly low, reclaimed within a bar, and price now sits just above the 38.2% retrace near 3983 and under the fib 50% at 3988.4. RSI(14) is around 41 with both EMAs overhead, consistent with the liquidation-driven backdrop in the digest.
Support: 3,979.40, 3,965.25
Resistance: 3,988.40, 3,993.90, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 3979.4 london low would mark the post-sweep rebound as a failed reclaim
Break of the 3965.25 sweep low opens the 3950 zone cited in the digest
Acceptance above the fib 61.8% at 3993.9 and the 4000 psych would break the descending lower-highs line
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended lower in early London · RSI 36 · price 3,975.65
Lower highs from 4018.79; Asian range low broken, session low wicked through monthly low.
Gold broke the Asian low at 3987.47 late in Asia, and the London open extended the slide to a 3965.25 session low through the ~3975 monthly low before closing back near 3975. Gold is falling even as the USD softens, with lower highs at 4018.79 and the 4011.51 swing high capping price well below the 4000 psych level. RSI(14) sits near 36 and is not yet stretched.
Support: 3,965.25, 3,950.00
Resistance: 3,987.47, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back above the 3987.47 asian low, near the 50% fib of the swing high to session low leg, would neutralise the range break
A break of the 3965.25 session low exposes the 3950 round number
Reclaiming 4000 psych and the lower highs trendline near 4011.51 would end the intraday downtrend read
US ECI 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC and Daly/Musalem later in NY hours could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since 4032.60; Asian low broken in early London.
Early London extended the overnight slide through the 3987.47 Asian low to a 3979.35 session low. Gold stays heavy below the $4,000 round number despite a softer USD, consistent with the liquidation read in the digest. The lower-high line from 4032.60 still caps, with the latest lower high at 4011.51 near the 61.8% fib; RSI(14) ~37, not oversold.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,975.00
Resistance: 3,987.47, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 3979.35 session low exposes the 3975 monthly low, with 3950 the next cited support
M15 close back above the 3987.47 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 4000 round number and the 4011.51 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 41 · price 3,984.99
LH/LL sequence below $4,000; pressing session low near monthly low.
Asia printed a clean string of lower highs from 4026 down to the 4011.51 lower high, lost the $4,000 psych level and extended to a 3979.35 session low into the London open. That leaves price a few dollars above the ~3975 monthly low. The selling extends the post-GDP-beat slide on firm December hike pricing, with no lift from a softer USD; sellers capped the bounce at the 3993.9 minor high and RSI(14) sits near 41, not stretched.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,975.00
Resistance: 3,993.90, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 3975 monthly low opens the ~$3,950 zone flagged in the macro digest
M15 close back above the $4,000 psych level and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the 4011.51 lower high is the structural cap
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read, and Daly/Musalem follow at 16:00–16:30 UTC
Month-end flows into the NY session can distort intraday swings around 3979–4000
LH/LL chain from 4032.6; Asian low broken at London open.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 4032.6 high after the GDP beat. Early London broke below the 3987.47 Asian range low to a 3979.35 london low, a few dollars above the 3975 monthly low, and price is now bouncing back to the broken Asian low. Supply has capped every rebound along the descending trendline, most recently at the 4011.51 swing high. RSI(14) is near 42, so momentum is neutral rather than stretched.
Support: 3,979.35, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3979.35 london low exposes the 3975 monthly low, with 3950 below that
An M15 close back above 4000 psych (38.2% fib) would point to a deeper retrace of the drop
A break of the descending trendline and the 4011.51 swing high would invalidate the lower-high chain
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 3,982.88
LH/LL chain; Asia broke $4,000 and prior-day low, fresh low at London open.
Asia broke below the $4,000 psych level and yesterday's 4005 low, with the descending trendline of lower highs capping rallies at 4018.8 and then the 4011.51 swing high. London opened with a fresh session low at 3980.18, just above the 3975 monthly low. The selling is liquidation-led: gold slid even as the USD and yields eased after the Q3 GDP beat.
Support: 3,980.18, 3,975.00
Resistance: 3,987.47, 4,000.00, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3975 monthly low extends the lower-low chain toward 3950
A reclaim of the 3987.47 prior low, now overhead, would stall the latest leg
An M15 close above the 4000 psych level, near the 61.8% fib of the 4011.5–3980.2 drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
A break of the descending trendline above the 4011.51 swing high invalidates the downtrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Bearish sequence below $4,000; session low being tested into London open.
Gold slipped through the $4,000 psych level in the Asia session after Thursday's $4,005 low. Hawkish-Fed pricing and an absent haven bid kept selling pressure on, with lower highs at 4013.8 and 4011.5 capping bounces. The latest rebound stalled near the 50–61.8% retrace of the decline from 4032.6, and the current bar is printing a fresh session low at 3984.29 into the London open with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 3,984.29
Resistance: 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4011.5 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to reclaim the $4,000 psych keeps the ~$3,975 weekly low in focus
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, then Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 GMT, could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a short-covering move back toward the asia high at 4026
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 45 · price 3,992.07
Asia session broke the $4,000 psych handle and Thursday's 4005.38 prior low, holding a lower-high chain off 4018.79. A late-Asia bounce to the 4011.51 swing high was rejected, near the 50% fib of the selloff, and price is back near the 3986.70 session low ahead of London open. The digest points to hike pricing and liquidation flows keeping gold heavy despite a softer USD.
Support: 3,986.70, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,011.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4000 psych and 4005.38 prior low would break the lower-high chain; above the 4011.51 swing high, the downtrend read is invalidated
Break of the 3986.70 session low exposes the ~3975 weekly low
Q3 ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Daly at 16:00 GMT and Musalem at 16:30 GMT add Fed-speak risk into the NY session
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through Asia · RSI 40 · price 3,987.45
Descending swing chain; price pressing Asian session low.
Asia session extended Thursday's slide below the $4,000 psych level. Each bounce has stalled lower, from the 4026.3 Asia high down to the 4011.5 lower high, and the late-Asia push back above $4,000 was rejected. Price is back at the 3986.9 session low ahead of London open, with gold ignoring the softer USD as hawkish-Fed pricing and liquidation flows dominate.
Support: 3,986.87, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
A break below the 3986.87 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the ~3975 week low
M15 close back above 4000 psych would ease the downside read; a close above the 4011.51 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence
London open is within the hour and typically expands the Asian range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain through Asia; price back at the session low.
Gold extended Thursday's post-GDP losses through the Asia session, carving lower highs and lower lows from the 4026.3 Asian high, with no haven bid. The late-Asia bounce was rejected at the 4011.5 swing high, at the 50% retracement and the descending trendline. Price is back under the 4000 psych level and testing the 3987.5 session low ahead of London open.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
A close below the 3987.5 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3975 weekly low
A reclaim of 4000 psych and a close above the 4011.5 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT, then Fed's Daly at 16:00 GMT and Musalem at 16:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, short bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 4,002.33
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; bounce from 3987.5 rejected at 61.8% fib.
Late in the Asia session, gold extended Thursday's slide through the 4000 psych handle to a 3987.47 session low, with hawkish-Fed pricing still weighing despite a softer USD. The rebound stalled almost exactly at the fib 61.8 retracement (4011.51) of the 4026.34 asian high to session low move. Price is back near 4002, sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral around 46 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,011.51, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 4000 psych level reopens the 3987.47 session low; a break there exposes the 3975 weekly low
M15 close above the 4011.51 fib 61.8 rejection high breaks the Asian lower-high chain, with the 4026.34 asian high as the next reference
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT and Daly/Musalem from 16:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain to 3987.47; falling trendline broken, price back above $4,000.
Gold slipped through the $4,000 psych level in Asia to a 3987.47 asian low, extending Thursday's hawkish-Fed selloff. The bounce into London has cleared the falling trendline and reclaimed $4,000, with price at the 50% retrace of the Asian leg and pressing EMA50 near 4008. The 4013.80 lower high caps the move.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,987.47
Resistance: 4,013.80, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4000 psych level reopens the 3987.47 asian low
Clearing the 4013.80 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain, with the 4026.34 asian high next
London open at 07:00 UTC and Q3 ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing into 4000 · RSI 43 · price 3,999.26
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; broken 4000 handle being retested from below.
Asia broke Thursday's 4005.38 prior low and the 4000 psych handle, stepping down in lower highs to a 3987.47 session low as hawkish-Fed pricing kept gold heavy. Price is now retesting 4000 from below, near ema20 and under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4005.38 prior low, also near fib 38.2%, would reclaim Thursday's range and break the lower-high chain
Rejection at 4000 psych followed by a break of the 3987.47 session low would extend lower lows toward the 3975 weekly low
A push through fib 50% at 4010 toward the 4013.80 lower high would breach the falling trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Daly and Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near 4000 · RSI 45 · price 3,998.08
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, now retesting 4000 from below.
Asia session extended Thursday's slide, with gold breaking the 4000 psych level in a lower-high chain from the 4026.34 Asian high to a session low at 3987.47. The selling follows the strong GDP and core PCE prints that kept December hike bets alive. Late in Asia, price is retesting 4000 from below with EMA20 sitting there and RSI(14) neutral at ~45. London open is ahead.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,013.80, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4000 psych and the falling trendline undoes the Asia breakdown, with the 4013.8 swing high (near fib 50%) next
Failure below the 3987.47 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3975 weekly low
A move through the 4026.34 asian high would break the lower-high sequence entirely
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, followed by Daly and Musalem remarks, could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact through late Asia · RSI 37 · price 3,991.92
LH/LL chain; $4,000 and prior low lost, basing near session low.
Late in the Asia session, gold has extended Thursday's post-data slide after the in-line PCE and GDP beat. It broke the 4005.38 prior low and the $4,000 psych level to a 3987.47 session low, with each lower high from 4013.8 to 3995.95 capping bounces. RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold, and the 38.2% of the Asian drop fib sits around 4002, just above the psych level.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 3,995.95, 4,005.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the $4,000 psych and 4005.38 prior low would negate the range break
Break below the 3987.47 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3975 3m low zone
Close above the lower highs trendline (~3994) and 3995.95 lower high would break the LH chain
London open ahead; US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read, with Daly and Musalem later
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 3,994.19
Broke below $4,000 psych and prior-day low, base forming near 3987.
Gold has stepped down through the Asia session from the 4032.60 late-NY high on a falling trendline, breaking the $4,000 psych level and yesterday's 4005 prior low. Price is now holding a 3987–3995 shelf above the session low, with the 4,000 psych level and the 38.2% fib near 4005 overhead. That move extends the post-GDP-beat selling and still lacks haven demand.
Support: 3,992.27, 3,987.47
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
A close back above 4005.38 prior low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, would weaken the breakdown read
Failure to hold 3987.47 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 3992.27 asia pivot
Falling trendline off the 4026.34 and 4013.80 lower highs caps price near 4006; a break above it shifts the structure
Price holding beneath 4000 psych keeps the range break intact
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through Asia · RSI 39 · price 3,992.24
Broke below Thursday's 4005 low and the 4000 psych level; Asian session lows extending.
Asia session extended the post-PCE/GDP selloff. Price broke Thursday's 4005 low (thu low) and the 4000 psych level, printing a session low at 3987.47 on a clean chain of lower highs. The 03:15 UTC bounce stalled just above 4000, a rejection at the broken level, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs ahead of the London open.
Support: 3,987.47, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4005 thu low turns the 4000 psych break into a false break
A close above the 4013.80 swing high breaks the lower highs chain and the 38.2–50% selloff fib band
Failure to hold the 3987.47 session low opens the 3975 3m low zone
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read; Daly/Musalem follow at 16:00/16:30 UTC
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 3,993.79
Broke Thursday's range low, LH/LL chain below 4000.
Late in the Asia session, gold has broken below Thursday's 4005 low and the 4000 psych level. Lower highs have stepped down from 4026 to 4001.8, with a session low at 3990.43, as selling carries over from yesterday's hawkish GDP beat. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 3,990.43, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4005.38 (thu low) would turn the sub-4000 break into a false break
Failure to hold the 3990.43 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3975 3-month low zone
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the 4013.8 swing high invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Asia-leg fib 38.2–50% (4004–4008) overlaps thu low, an area to watch for rejection on any bounce
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read; Daly/Musalem follow at 16:00–16:30 UTC
LH/LL chain from 4032.6; 4000 psych and Thursday low broken in Asia.
Asia session extended the lower-high sequence from Thursday's post-data slide, breaking the 4005.38 thu low and the 4000 psych to a 3992.27 session low. The 03:15 UTC retest of 4000 met rejection, and the 4013.8 lower high caps the latest bounce. RSI(14) near 37 is not oversold, with no haven demand amid hawkish-Fed pricing.
Support: 3,992.27, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4005.38 (thu low) would neutralise the break below 4000 psych
Failure to hold 3992.27 session low confirms another lower-low, with the 3975 3m low zone next
Lower-highs trendline from 4032.6 caps rallies; a break above 4013.8 lower high would repair the sequence and reclaim the 38.2% fib of the 4032.6–3992.27 drop
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact through Asia · RSI 40 · price 3,998.48
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Thursday's 4005 low and 4000 psych broken.
Asia session extended Thursday's post-PCE/GDP slide, with the Asia drop from 4032.6 breaking the 4005.38 prior low and the 4000 psych to a 3992.27 session low. Each bounce since 22:00 UTC has capped lower (4026, 4018, 4013.8), and price is pinned just under 4000 below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40, not stretched.
Support: 3,996.40, 3,992.27
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4005.38 prior low would mark the sub-4000 move as a false break
Close above 4013.8 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 3992.27 session low, after the twin lows at 3996.4 gave way, extends the lower-low chain
Retrace toward 4012 (50% of the Asia drop fib) is the first test of the 4000 break
ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Mid-Asia session, gold has extended the lower-high/lower-low sequence from the 4032.60 swing. After three holds near 3996 it slipped through $4,000 psych to a 3992.27 session low, with the 4012.80 lower high and 4026.34 asian high capping rebounds. Price is still heavy after the GDP beat with no haven bid; RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 3,992.27, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,012.80, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
A close back above 4000 psych would turn the break into a false break and bring the 4012.80 lower high (≈50% of the swing fib) into play
Failure to hold the 3992.27 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3975 area
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 4026.34 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
ECI 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT and Fed's Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 3,997.53
Lower-high sequence from 4026, pressing Asian low below $4,000.
Late Asia session broke Thursday's prior low at 4005 and is retesting the 3996 Asian low beneath the $4,000 psych line. The lower-high sequence from 4026 stays intact after the bounce stalled at the 4013.8 lower high, with gold heavy after in-line PCE and the GDP beat kept December hike pricing firm; RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 3,996.43
Resistance: 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4005 prior low and $4,000 psych negates the downside break
Sustained trade below the 3996 Asian low leaves $3,975, the next zone flagged in the digest, in play
Break above the 4013.8 lower high would end the lower-high chain
ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; asian low 3996.4 under test.
The lower-high chain from 4032.6 holds through the Asian session. The Asia bounce stalled at the 4013.8 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the 4032.6–3996.4 leg, and price has slipped back under the $4,000 psych level, sitting just above the 3996.4 asian low. Gold stays heavy after the GDP beat firmed December hike bets, and RSI(14) at 38 is not stretched.
Support: 3,996.43, 3,975.00
Resistance: 4,005.38, 4,013.80
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4013.8 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 3996.4 asian low exposes the 3975 three-month low zone (3m low zone)
Reclaiming $4,000 psych and the 4005.4 prior low shifts the read toward a range
ECI at 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT and Daly/Musalem remarks later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs below a descending trendline; Asia broke the prior-day low and 4,000 before a partial bounce.
Mid-Asia, gold broke the prior-day low at 4005.38 and the 4,000 psych handle. It tagged a 3996.43 asian low twice, then the bounce stalled at the 4013.80 bounce high, just under the 50% fib of the drop from the 4032.60 swing high. Lower highs off the 4026.34 asian high keep the descending trendline intact, and gold stays heavy after the GDP beat and in-line PCE reinforced December hike pricing.
Support: 3,996.43
Resistance: 4,013.80, 4,026.34, 4,032.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3996.43 asian low confirms a fresh lower-low beneath 4,000 psych
Close above the 4013.80 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4026.34 asian high back in play
Reclaim of the 4032.60 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US ECI at 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read, with Fed's Daly and Musalem later in the NY session
Lower highs from 4032.6; false break below 4000 reclaimed.
The Asia session broke below the $4,000 psych level and Thursday's 4005.4 prior low after the in-line PCE and GDP beat kept gold heavy. Twin lows at 3996.4 held, and price is back at 4011.7, pressing the 4012.9 neckline of a small double bottom. Highs are still stepping lower from 4032.6, and RSI(14) is neutral near 44.
Support: 4,005.40, 4,000.00, 3,996.40
Resistance: 4,012.90, 4,018.80, 4,026.30
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4012.9 neckline confirms the double bottom; the 4018.8 swing high and the falling-highs line sit just above
Asian high at 4026.3 caps the session range; a break there ends the lower-high sequence
A return below the 4000 psych level and the 3996.4 session low turns the false break into continuation
ECI at 12:30 GMT, then Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Gold extended Thursday's slide on hike bets after the GDP beat. Asia briefly broke the $4,000 psych level to a 3996.43 session low, but three closes held above it and price has reclaimed Thursday's 4005 low. Lower highs at the 4026.34 asian high, the 4018.79 swing high and the 4012.92 lower high still frame the drop, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 3,996.43
Resistance: 4,012.92, 4,018.79, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3996.43 session low turns the false break into a confirmed lower-low under $4,000
Close above the 4018.79 swing high, also the 61.8% fib of the 4032 drop, breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Repeated rejection at the 4012.92 lower high keeps the psych level under pressure
ECI at 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 3,998.83
Broke below prior low and $4,000 psych; bounce capped at 4012.92.
The Asia session extended Thursday's post-GDP/PCE slide. Price broke below the 4005.38 prior low and the $4,000 psych line to an Asian low of 3996.49. The rebound stalled at the 4012.92 bounce high, about the 45% fib of the 4032.60–3996.49 leg. Price now sits just under $4,000, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 36, soft but not stretched.
Support: 3,996.49
Resistance: 4,005.38, 4,012.92
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4005.38 prior low turns the sub-$4,000 break into a false break
Break of the 3996.49 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the $3,975–3,950 area flagged in the digest
Lower-high trendline from 4026.34: a close above it, and above the 4012.92 bounce high, ends the Asia downtrend sequence
ECI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read: a hot print pressures $4,000, a soft one risks a sharp short-covering bounce
Lower-high chain from 4032.6; sweep below 4000 reclaimed.
Early Asia session extends the lower-highs sequence from the 4032.6 late-NY high. The asian high sits at 4026.3, and a sweep of the 4000 psych level to a 3996.5 sweep low was reclaimed quickly, though the rebound high at 4012.9 is already fading. Gold stays heavy after Thursday's GDP beat and in-line PCE kept December hike bets intact; RSI(14) near 37, not oversold.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,996.50
Resistance: 4,012.90, 4,018.80, 4,026.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 3996.5 sweep low confirms a break of 4000 psych
Close above the 4018.8 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the asian high at 4026.3 above
Rebound high at 4012.9 is the first area to watch for rejection or break
ECI 12:30 GMT, then Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain; $4,000 psych broken in Asia session.
Asia session extended the post-GDP/PCE slide. Price broke through yesterday's prior low at 4005.38 and the $4,000 psych to a 3996.49 session low, with lower highs at 4026.34 and 4018.79 defining a descending trendline. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, and gold is still trading as a funding asset rather than a haven.
Support: 3,996.49
Resistance: 4,005.38, 4,018.79
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4005.38 prior low reframes the $4,000 break as a false break
Close above the 4018.79 lower high, near the 61.8% fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 3996.49 session low extends the downtrend
ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4032.60; prior-day low broken in Asia.
Early Asia session extends the lower-high sequence from 4032.60. A rejection at the 4018.79 swing high in the 00:45 UTC bar pushed price through Thursday's 4005.38 prior low to a 4001.18 session low. RSI(14) sits near 32 with price pressing the $4,000 psych level, as the hawkish GDP/PCE read keeps gold heavy.
Support: 4,001.18, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,005.38, 4,018.79, 4,026.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4005.38 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Sustained trade below 4000 psych and the 4001.18 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 4018.79 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 4026.34 asian high
US ECI at 12:30 GMT, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 46 · price 4,016.44
Lower highs and lower lows from 4068.79; Asia undercut the NY low and reclaimed.
The lower-high/lower-low chain from the 4068.79 spike is intact, with gold heavy after in-line PCE and the GDP beat. Early Asia dipped below the prior NY low at 4005.38 to an Asian low of 4003.62, just above 4000 psych, and was bought back to 4016. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop from the 4032.6 swing high, flat on EMA20.
Support: 4,003.62, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.34, 4,032.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline near 4022 and the asian high at 4026.34 breaks the lower-high chain; 4032.6 swing high is the next cap
Failure to hold the asian low at 4003.62 puts 4000 psych in play and extends the lower-low sequence
ECI at 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 4037.72; early Asia undercut of prior-day low at 4005.38 to 4003.62, shallow bounce.
Early Asia session dipped below the prior-day low at 4005.38 to a 4003.62 session low, then bounced to 4012. The descending trendline of lower highs is intact, running from the 4037.72 NY high through the 4032.60 swing high and the 4026.34 Asian high. The slide followed the GDP beat and in-line PCE, which kept December hike pricing firm, and the 4000 psych level sits just below.
Support: 4,003.62, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.34, 4,032.60, 4,037.72
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the 4003.62 session low and the 4000 psych level would extend the lower-low chain
A recovery through the 4026.34 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline would break the downtrend sequence
Acceptance back above the 4032.60 swing high and the 4037.72 NY high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4032.60, prior low swept in early Asia.
The late-NY rebound stalled at a 4032.60 lower high. The Asia session has since slid from its 4026.34 asia high and briefly swept the 4005.38 prior low to a 4003.62 session low before closing back above it. Gold stays heavy on firm December Fed-hike pricing, with the 4000 psych level just below and RSI(14) near 38, not oversold.
Support: 4,005.38, 4,003.62, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.34, 4,032.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4003.62 session low puts the 4000 psych level in play
Recovery above the 4026.34 asia high breaks the lower highs trendline; 4032.60 lower high is the next cap
ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain; early Asia session pressing the prior daily low.
Lower highs from 4068.79 remain intact. The in-line PCE and GDP beat kept December hike bets alive, and the Asia session has faded from its 4026.34 asian high to retest the 4005.38 daily low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4032.60 swing high near the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) near 37 is not yet oversold.
Support: 4,005.38, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,026.34, 4,032.60, 4,037.72
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4005.38 daily low and 4000 psych extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 4026.34 asian high, at the falling trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence; the 4032.60 swing high and 4037.72 ny high sit above
ECI 12:30 GMT, Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT and Daly/Musalem from 16:00 GMT could materially shift this read