22:49 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating lower · RSI 28 · price 3,885.15
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August 4696 peak; July floor broken.
Gold has printed a lower-high, lower-low chain since the late-August peak at 4696.74, and has traded below a falling EMA(50) since the 4110 break in late September. Friday's roughly $156 candle went through the July low at 3942.64 and the October low at 3975.70 to a 3870.26 ytd low. The digest frames the move as a liquidation flush tied to the tech/AI equity rout, not a rates move, since December hike odds actually eased to 70%. Daily RSI near 28 is in oversold territory for the first time in this leg, while the late-October rebound stalled at the 4082.67 lower high, about the 23.6% retracement of the August–October decline.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,800.00
Resistance: 3,942.64, 3,975.70, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
- ISM Manufacturing Mon Nov 2 (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5), US midterms Tue and ADP Wed could materially shift this read
- A daily close back above the 3942.64 july low would mark Friday's break as a false break
- Failure to hold the 3870.26 ytd low leaves the 3800 round number as the next reference
- 3975.70 oct low is the first broken support to watch for rejection on any rebound
- A daily close above the 4082.67 lower high would break the lower-high chain