21:07 UTC
Downtrend since the late-August peak, rebound stalling · RSI 37 · price 4,054.62
Lower highs and lower lows from 4697; October range broken lower, retest from below.
Gold has printed a lower-high, lower-low chain since the Aug 25 peak at 4697. The early-October 4066–4227 range gave way last week, and price set a three-month swing low near 3976. This week's rebound has stalled at the 4070–4082 old support zone, with price below the ema20 near 4116 and a falling EMA(50), as the Q3 GDP beat and in-line core PCE kept December hike pricing firm; RSI near 37 is weak but not oversold.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,070.00, 4,116.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 4070–4082 old support reopens the ema20 near 4116, which roughly coincides with the 23.6% retracement of the aug-oct decline near 4146, and then the 4227 range top
- Daily close below the 4000 psych level exposes the 3976 swing low and the july low at 3943; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
- Fri ECI Q3 (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift December hike pricing and this read
- Oil and US-Iran headlines remain a cross-current that has driven the recent bounces off 4000