Monday open swept Friday low and reclaimed; price mid-range at 50% retrace.
Monday's Asia open gapped about 6 pips under the 0.70321 Friday close. It then swept the 0.70135 Friday low to 0.70132 before snapping back to 0.7030, and price now sits flat on the ema20 at the 50% retrace of the 0.70427–0.70132 decline. Lower highs from the 0.70427 Friday high and the 0.7037 NY high still cap, with RBA caution keeping AUD pinned near 0.70.
Support: 0.70221, 0.70132
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70321 Friday close fills the gap and brings the 0.7037 NY high and the lower-highs line into play
Slip back under the 0.70221 open low re-exposes the 0.70132 sweep low; a close below it turns the sweep into a range break
AU Building Permits at 00:30 UTC could jolt thin Asia session liquidity
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and RBA Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 0.7013–0.7043; Sunday-open sweep of Friday low reclaimed.
The Sunday open gapped about 6 pips below Friday's 0.7032 close. It then made a sweep low at 0.7013, just under Friday's NY low, before a 13-pip reclaim bar. Price now sits at 0.7028, near the 50% retrace of Friday's 0.7040–0.7013 drop, in thin early-Asia trade ahead of Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70132
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 gap fill, which also lines up with the 100-day SMA, reopens the 0.7037 ny high and the 0.7043 friday high
Slip back through Friday's 0.7020 london low puts the 0.7013 sweep low back in play; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Building Permits at 00:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could shift this read; the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the larger structural risk
Gap down at Asia open, false break below Friday low, reclaimed inside Friday range.
Early Asia session opened with a 6-pip gap down and a false break of the friday low at 0.7013, reversed by a 13-pip bar back to 0.7030. Price sits just under the gap fill at 0.7032 with flat EMAs and RSI(14) at 50, still inside Friday's 0.7013–0.7043 range as AUD holds its pre-RBA 0.7020–0.7040 band.
Support: 0.70256, 0.70132
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 gap fill puts the ny high at 0.7037 and friday high at 0.7043 in play
Slip back below the monday open at 0.7025 undercuts the reclaim; a second break of the 0.7013 friday low turns the false break into a range break
AUD Building Permits 00:30 UTC and US ISM 15:00 UTC are near-term catalysts; Tuesday's RBA decision is the main range-break risk
23:03 UTC
Short-term soft after weekly-open gap down · RSI 38 · price 0.70197
Gap below Friday close, Friday low swept, bounce still under open-drop midpoint.
The weekly open gapped about 6 pips below Friday's 0.70321 close. Early Asia session selling then swept the Friday low at 0.70135 to 0.70132 before price bounced to 0.70197, still below the 50% retrace of the open drop. Liquidity is thin and there is no fresh catalyst; Friday's 0.7013–0.7043 range still frames price ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70132, 0.7010
Resistance: 0.70221, 0.70256, 0.70321
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70132 friday low exposes the 0.70100 round number
Rejection at the 61.8% fib of the open drop near 0.70221 keeps the post-gap lower-high sequence intact
Reclaiming the 0.70256 weekly open and filling the gap to the 0.70321 friday close would neutralise the gap-down read
AU Building Permits at 00:30 UTC could move this thin session; RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the larger risk to the range
22:46 UTC
Range-bound, soft open after weekend gap · RSI 37 · price 0.70221
Friday range 0.70135–0.70427 intact; Sunday open gapped below Friday close and is fading.
Early Asia session opened about 6 pips below the friday close at 0.70321, with RSI(14) near 37 and price slipping from the 0.70256 sunday open to retrace about 60% of Friday's NY rally off the 0.70135 friday low. With no fresh AUD catalyst over the weekend, the pair sits inside Friday's range, just above Friday's 0.70200 london low, in thin liquidity.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70256, 0.70321, 0.70427
What it said to watch
A gap fill back to the 0.70321 friday close, near the 100-day SMA, would neutralise the soft open
Loss of the 0.70200 london low exposes the 0.70135 friday low, the base of Friday's NY rally
Only a move above the 0.70427 friday high breaks the range read
AU Building Permits (00:30 UTC) and US ISM (15:00 UTC) on Monday precede Tuesday's RBA decision and US midterms, the main range-break risk
22:31 UTC
Soft, drifting lower after weekend gap · RSI 36 · price 0.70223
Friday range 0.70135–0.70427; Sunday open gapped down, lower highs since.
Sunday's thin open gapped about 6 pips below the 0.70321 friday close and has slipped to 0.70223. That puts price under Friday's late-NY floor near 0.70266 and at the 61.8% retrace of the NY rebound from 0.70135 to the 0.70371 ny high. RSI(14) sits at 36 with no stretch, and the market is quiet ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70276, 0.70321, 0.70371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70200 london low opens the 0.70135 friday low
Recovery through the 0.70276 sunday high and the 0.70321 friday close would fill the weekend gap and restore the Friday range read
AUD Building Permits Mon 00:30 UTC is minor; RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC is the main risk for a range break
22:16 UTC
Sideways, mild softness into the weekly open · RSI 45 · price 0.70263
Friday range 0.70135–0.70427; Sunday open gapped below Friday's close.
The week opened about 6 pips below Friday's 0.70321 fri close, and price is holding near the 0.70256 sunday open in thin early-Asia trade. Friday ranged from the 0.70135 ny low to the 0.70427 fri high. Price has given back roughly half of the NY rebound to 0.70371, with RSI(14) near 45 and AUD still boxed in ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70256, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Gap fill to the 0.70321 fri close, which aligns with the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, would neutralise the soft open; the 0.70371 rebound high sits above
Failure to hold the 0.70256 sunday open and a break of the 0.70200 london low would expose the 0.70135 ny low
TD-MI Inflation Gauge (00:00 UTC) and Building Permits (00:30 UTC) are the first catalysts; the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this range read
22:06 UTC
Sideways, soft Sunday open · RSI 43 · price 0.70256
Friday 0.7014-0.7043 range intact; open gapped below late-NY floor.
The Sunday open gapped about 6.5 pips lower to 0.7026, under Friday's late-NY floor and onto the 50% fib of the NY rebound. That rebound followed a sweep of the London low into the 0.7014 NY low, which capped at the 0.7037 NY high, while the 0.7043 Asian high still marks the range top. With no weekend AUD catalyst, the open sits inside the 0.7020-0.7040 band that the market has held around RBA hike pricing.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Gap fill back to the Friday close at 0.7032 restores the late-NY range read
M15 close below the 0.7020 london low exposes the 0.7014 NY low
Break of the 0.7037 NY high reopens the 0.7043 Asian high
TD-MI inflation gauge 00:00 UTC and Building Permits 00:30 UTC Mon in early Asia
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock presser 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Flat, mid-range into weekly close · RSI 48 · price 0.70321
Tight 0.7027–0.7037 range after NY false break below Asian low.
NY hours swept below the Asian low at 0.7017 to a day low of 0.70135, then the NY reversal reclaimed it in a single bar. Price has since been boxed between the 0.7027 range low and the 0.7037 range top. Friday closed at 0.7032 with RSI(14) near 48. Hot-CPI RBA hike pricing kept the dip shallow, while USD caution ahead of the US midterms held price below the 0.7043 asian high.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Monday open relative to the 0.7027 range low / 0.7037 range top band; a gap outside it resets the range read
Loss of the 0.7020 london low reopens the 0.70135 day low
M15 close above the 0.7043 asian high clears Friday's full session range
A hold above the NY reversal fib 50% (~0.7025) keeps the reclaim of the day low intact
Building Permits Mon 00:30 UTC, ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Flat, two-way intraday chop · RSI 48 · price 0.70321
Higher lows off the NY low, compressing in a 0.70266–0.70371 range into Friday's close.
AUD ran to the 0.70427 Asia high on the AUD PPI beat, then faded through London. Into NY it swept the London low to a 0.70135 day low before snapping back, and has since printed higher lows, held near the 50% fib of that rebound. The close sits at 0.7032, mid-range between the 0.70266 swing low and the 0.70371 NY high, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.70266, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70266 swing low breaks the NY rising lows and exposes the 0.70135 day low
M15 close above the 0.70371 NY high opens the path to the 0.70427 Asia high
Weekend reopen gap risk; ISM Mfg Mon 15:00 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing into the Friday close · RSI 48 · price 0.70321
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the 0.7014–0.7043 day range.
Friday's NY session swept below the London low at 0.7020 to a 0.7014 day low, then reversed sharply. Since then, lower highs from the 0.7043 Asia high, 0.7040 London high and 0.7037 NY high are converging with higher lows from the day low, and the close at 0.7032 sits mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The quiet weekend brought no fresh driver; ATR has compressed to roughly 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70403, 0.70427
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7037 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.7040 London high and 0.7043 Asia high into play
A loss of the 0.70266 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.7020 London low, then the 0.7014 day low
Monday's reopen and Asia session can gap away from the compressed close
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could set direction for USD yields
RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (~80% hike priced) and US midterms could materially shift this read
Asian-low false break in NY, then a 0.7027–0.7037 range into Friday close.
Early NY broke the 0.70172 Asian low, printed the 0.70135 sweep low, then reversed sharply, leaving the break as a false one. Late NY held below the 0.70371 ny high and above the 0.70266 ny pm low into Friday's close, only shallow into the sweep rally fib, with RSI(14) flat near 49. ATR(14) of about 3.6 pips shows the compression ahead of RBA risk.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70135
Resistance: 0.70371, 0.70427
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.70266 ny pm low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.70200 london low and the sweep rally fib 50–61.8% zone (0.7025–0.7022)
A close above the 0.70371 ny high reopens the 0.70427 asia high at the top of Friday's range
Return below the 0.70135 sweep low negates the false-break read
Monday open gap risk; ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read