22:05 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing above 0.7000 · RSI 51 · price 0.70279
Double bottom off 0.6894, now ranging 0.7010–0.7068 just under ema50.
The 0.7237 swing high on Sep 9 started a lower-high, lower-low decline to the 0.6894 swing low on Oct 15, which paired with the Oct 1 low to form a double bottom; price reclaimed the 0.7000 round number in the week of Oct 19. The hot Q3 CPI (4.3% y/y vs 4.2%) lifted the pair to a 0.7068 range high, but that met rejection right at the 50% retracement of the Sep–Oct fib and just above the ema50. Since then the pair has rotated in a 0.7010–0.7068 band for over a week, holding above a flat EMA(20) but below a still-declining ema50, with RSI neutral near 51.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7049, 0.7068, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (f/c +25bp to 4.85%) and Bullock's 04:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read; a hold is only ~20% priced
- A daily close below the 0.7000 round number undermines the double bottom and re-exposes the 0.6894 swing low
- A daily close above the 0.7068 range high and the ema50 opens the 61.8% fib near 0.7106, with the 0.7237 swing high the next major pivot
- US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed add two-way USD risk to the range