Lower highs from 0.7068; broke below the 0.6954 prior low.
Lower highs have stacked from 0.7068 through 0.7043 and the 0.7024 lower high. A 57-pip H4 bar took out the 0.6954 prior low and printed a new low at 0.6936, as USD clawed back on Thursday's strong jobless claims and productivity beats. That bar was roughly 2.5x ATR(14) of about 23 pips, marking a break from the 0.6954–0.7024 range. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and the 50% retrace of the 0.7068–0.6936 leg lines up with the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.69362, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69536, 0.7000, 0.70241
What it said to watch
US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close back above the 0.6954 prior low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6936 new low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference
Recovery through 0.7000 psych and the lower-high trendline near 0.7024 would break the lower-high sequence
RSI near 34 with ATR expanding; an oversold reading below 30 would mark trend extension
Two-week range broken lower, rebound capped at a lower high.
AUDUSD held a 0.6995–0.7068 range through late October before breaking lower early this month. The rebound stalled at a lower high near 0.7024 in the 0.7000–0.7024 band, and the latest bar fell to a fresh 0.6948 swing low as USD recovered on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed talk. Highs have stepped down from the 0.7068 range high, price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 23 pips on the latest 57-pip bar.
Support: 0.6948, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7024, 0.7068
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 0.7000 psych level would weaken the range-break read
A sustained break below the 0.6948 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
A close above the 0.7024 lower high and the falling trendline from the range high would challenge the lower-high structure
14:04 UTC
Sideways recovery after a failed breakdown, lower highs intact · RSI 57 · price 0.70141
Lower highs from 0.7068; tight 0.7000-0.7024 consolidation after reclaiming 0.7000.
The dovish RBA hike knocked AUDUSD out of its multi-week 0.7015-0.7045 range to a swing low at 0.6954. The post-midterm USD slide then drove a sharp reclaim of the 0.7000 round number, making the breakdown a false break. Price is now compressing between 0.7000 and the fib 61.8 retracement of the swing high-to-low move at 0.7024. It sits just above a flattening EMA50 near 0.7012, with EMA20 still below EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about 20 pips from nearly 30 during the sell-off, and the lower-highs line from the 0.7068 swing high still caps the structure.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.7024, 0.7043
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7024 (fib 61.8 and consolidation cap) would break the lower-highs line and open the prior cap at 0.7043
Failure to hold 0.7000 round number on a closing basis puts the 0.6954 swing low back in play
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; the AUD bounce has been largely USD-driven
A move back toward the 0.7068 swing high would require clearing 0.7043 prior cap first
Lower highs from 0.7067; bounce off 0.6954 stalling below 0.7024.
After the late-October rejection at the 0.7067 swing high, AUDUSD printed lower highs and slid to a 0.6954 swing low in the wake of the dovish RBA hike. The post-midterm USD selloff then lifted price back above the 0.7000 round number. The rebound is now consolidating just under the 61.8% fib at 0.7024, which lines up with the lower-high line drawn from 0.7043, and the range top at 0.7043 sits above that. EMA20 is still below EMA50 but turning higher, with price trapped between the two. ATR(14) is near 22 pips and the last few bars are contracting.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7024, 0.7043, 0.7067
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7024 (61.8% fib and lower-high line) would turn the pullback into a test of the 0.7043 range top
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number would re-expose the 0.6954 swing low
Clearing 0.7043 would put the 0.7067 swing high back in play and complete an EMA20/EMA50 bullish cross
US NFP Fri 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) and today's jobless claims could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7068; rebound reclaimed 0.7000, capped near 0.7022.
AUDUSD held a two-week range below the 0.7040 range top. A spike to the 0.7068 swing high failed, and lower highs then pushed the pair through 0.7000 to a 12-day low at 0.6954 after the dovish RBA hike. The midterm-driven USD selloff produced a sharp rebound through the lower-high line and back above the psych 0.7000 level. Price is now stalling at the 0.7022 rebound high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 0.7068–0.6954 drop. ATR(14) near 21 pips has eased from the mid-week expansion, and EMA20 still sits below EMA50 even though price trades above both.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7040, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7022 rebound high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.7040 range top
Close above the 0.7068 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the psych 0.7000 retest puts the 0.6954 12-day low back in focus
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, prior 29K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.7068; break below 0.7000 retraced back to 61.8%.
The 0.7010-0.7065 range that held for two weeks gave way after the dovish RBA hike. Price fell to a swing low at 0.6954 and printed a sequence of lower highs from the 0.7068 prior high through the 0.7043 lower high. The post-midterm USD slide and the AUD trade-surplus beat drove a sharp rebound into the 0.7022 rebound high. That high sits just under the 61.8% fib of the 0.7068-0.6954 drop, and price is now retesting the 0.7000 psych handle. ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips, and price sits between a flattening EMA20 near 0.7000 and an EMA50 overhead near 0.7015.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70427
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7022 rebound high and 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.7043 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych handle reopens the 0.6954 swing low
Close below the 0.6954 swing low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Friday NFP (f/c 65K) and Thursday jobless claims could materially shift this read via USD
Reclaim of the 0.7068 prior high would negate the lower-highs structure entirely