Lower highs from 0.7068; range break to 0.6854 low, retracing.
Lower highs since the 0.7068 spike, with the late-week range break from the 0.7000-0.7040 band printing a swing low at 0.6854. The drop came as strong NFP and risk-off demand lifted the USD, and Monday's broad USD softness is driving the current bounce. Price is now pinned at the 38.2% fib and flat EMA20 near 0.6924, holding above the 0.6900 round number. ATR(14) expanded on the breakdown and is now easing.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6954, 0.7024
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close above the 0.6954 prior low and 61.8% fib challenges the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number reopens the 0.6854 swing low
Lower-highs trendline near 0.6997 and the 0.7024 lower high cap any extended recovery
Westpac consumer confidence tonight and NAB Tue are secondary AUD inputs
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, early rebound off lows · RSI 42 · price 0.69109
Range break lower, lower high at 0.7024, low 0.6854.
Two weeks of 0.7010-0.7065 range trade gave way to a range break. A lower high at 0.7024 preceded a slide to a 0.6854 swing low on Friday's NFP-driven USD bid and risk-off. The rebound has reclaimed the 0.6900 round number but still sits under the EMA20 near 0.6925 and the 38.2% level of the breakdown fib at 0.6919. EMA20 remains below EMA50, and ATR(14) is easing back from the breakdown expansion.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68539
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.6954, 0.70241
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close above the 0.6954 prior low (near the 61.8% breakdown fib) would undercut the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number puts the 0.6854 swing low back in focus; a break there extends the downtrend
Lower highs trendline from 0.7068 caps the structure; the 0.7024 lower high is the swing that defines it
14:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bounce underway · RSI 38 · price 0.68938
Lower high at 0.7024 and lower low at 0.6854, breaking a multi-week range.
The roughly two-week 0.7000–0.7065 range gave way late last week. The US NFP beat and an AI-led equity rout lifted the USD, driving a ~170-pip slide from the 0.7024 lower high to the 0.6854 swing low, and EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 as ATR expanded. Monday's bounce has stalled at the 0.6906 bounce high, still below the 38.2% retracement at 0.6919 and the 0.6954 breakdown zone, the prior swing low that now sits overhead.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6906, 0.6954, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6906 bounce high opens the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.6939–0.6959 and the 0.6954 breakdown level
Failure at the 0.6954 breakdown level keeps the lower-highs trendline from 0.7068 intact
Loss of the 0.6854 swing low exposes the 0.6833 9m low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 0.7000 psych handle would put price back inside the prior range and neutralise the breakdown
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Westpac consumer confidence tonight is a secondary AUD risk
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 31 · price 0.68828
Range break lower, lower high 0.7024 below 0.7068.
The two-week 0.6995-0.7068 range gave way late last week. The lower high at 0.7024, set after the trade-surplus bounce, rolled into a 170-pip slide to a 0.6854 swing low as the AI-stock rout and the 165K NFP beat lifted USD. Price is now basing in a tight band between that low and the 0.6902 Monday high. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, ATR(14) has expanded to around 25 pips, and RSI is just above oversold.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6954, 0.7024
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the crowded AUD net short leaves room for an outsized squeeze
H4 close below the 0.6854 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Break above the 0.6902 Monday high brings the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the 0.6954 prior low (old swing low, now overhead) into play
Reclaim of 0.6954 and the descending lower-high trendline toward 0.7024 would undercut the downtrend read
Westpac Consumer Confidence and Thursday's inflation expectations could revive RBA December hike talk
AUDUSD spent most of the window in a 0.7000-0.7067 range. Late last week a lower high at 0.7024 gave way and price broke down to a 0.6854 swing low as the NFP beat and an AI-led equity rout lifted the USD. Price is bouncing modestly toward the fib 38.2 at 0.6919 but holds below both EMAs, with EMA20 crossed under EMA50 and ATR(14) expanded to around 26 pips, a trend-extension regime rather than compression.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6919, 0.6954, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close back above the 0.6954 prior low, the breakdown base, would undercut the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.6854 swing low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Rejection near the fib 38.2 at 0.6919 or the lower-highs trendline keeps the downtrend sequence intact; 0.7000 round number is the range-break retest level
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 29 · price 0.68667
Lower highs from 0.7068; multi-week range broken below 0.6954.
After weeks of ranging between roughly 0.6995 and 0.7068, AUDUSD printed a lower high at 0.7024 and then broke the prior low at 0.6954 on the NFP beat and AI-led risk-off. The pair dropped about 170 pips to a swing low at 0.6854, and price now sits below both EMAs with ATR(14) expanded. The last few bars are compressing between 0.6854 and the bounce high at 0.6893 with RSI oversold, while the 9-month low at 0.6833 sits just beneath.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6954, 0.7024
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6854 swing low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Recovery through the 0.6893 bounce high would open the 38.2% retrace near 0.6919; reclaiming the 0.6954 prior low would neutralise the range-break read
Lower-high trendline from 0.7068 through 0.7024 caps the structure; a break above the 0.7024 lower high would end the downtrend read
China CPI later today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, especially given the crowded AUD short positioning