Lower-high structure has held since the late-October 0.7068 peak. The week's rebound stalled at 0.6931 near the ema50, and the hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove a fresh swing low at 0.6843, with price below both EMAs and EMA20 under EMA50. RSI at 33.2 sits well above the 20 reading from the 0.6854 low despite the lower price, a bullish RSI divergence, while ATR(14) has compressed from 25 to 20.7 pips as the selling slows just above the 0.6833 7m low.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68859, 0.6900, 0.69277
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6843 swing low and the 0.6833 7m low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.6886 and the 0.6900 psych level would test the lower-highs trendline and the fib 38.2% near 0.6912
Only a move back above the ema50 at 0.6928 and the 0.6931 swing high breaks the lower-high structure
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~2h, then Thursday's Fed speakers and Friday's US PPI, could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 34 · price 0.6848
Lower highs from 0.7024; swing low 0.6843 under retest.
Since the 0.7024 swing high, AUDUSD has printed a run of lower highs at 0.6931 and 0.6885, first on the strong NFP and then on hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk. Price is back testing the 0.6843 swing low, below a falling EMA20 (0.6890) and the EMA50 (0.6931). RSI at 33.6 is holding well above its 20 reading at the 0.6854 NFP low despite marginally lower price, a bullish divergence, while ATR has eased from about 25 to 21.9 pips.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900, 0.6931
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.6843 swing low confirms a lower low and brings SocGen support at 0.6833 into play
A close above the 0.6885 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.6900 psych level and the ema50 at 0.6931 in view
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT, could test the 0.6843 swing low or spark a bounce
US Fed speakers Thursday and core PPI Friday could shift 50bp pricing and the USD leg
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.7068 peak, with 0.7024 and then 0.6931 capping. Strong US payrolls and the hot US CPI print each drove a leg lower, the second to the cpi low at 0.6843. The bounce stalled at a lower high of 0.6885, just under the ema20 at 0.6894, and price is now back at the nfp low near 0.6854 with both EMAs sloping down and the ema20 below the ema50. RSI at 34.7 is off its earlier sub-30 readings, and ATR(14) has eased to 22.7 pips from about 25, so the range is compressing at support.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.68943, 0.69344
What it said to watch
H4 close below the cpi low at 0.6843 extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above the 0.6885 lower high and the ema20 at 0.6894 would stall the downtrend read
The ema50 at 0.6934 sits beside the 0.6931 swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the drop fib, a heavier cap overhead
A break of the lower highs trendline would mark the first change in the swing structure
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 GMT) and US core PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could shift this read, with Fed speakers due Thursday
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, ATR easing · RSI 37 · price 0.68669
Lower highs 0.7068 / 0.7024 / 0.6931 and lower lows to the 0.6843 cpi low.
Since the 0.7068 late-October peak, AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence. The strong NFP knocked it down to the 0.6854 nfp low, and the hot US CPI then took it to a fresh 0.6843 cpi low after the rebound failed at the 0.6931 lower high. Price sits below both the ema20 at 0.68985 and the EMA50 at 0.69377, which are fanned out and sloping lower, and a rally to the 0.6885 bounce high stalled near the 50% retracement of the CPI leg. RSI at 36.9 has recovered from the sub-25 readings of last week, and ATR(14) has eased to 22.7 pips from around 25 pips.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.68985, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6931 lower high, and the lower-high trendline drawn from 0.7024, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6843 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.6854 nfp low area
Recapture of the 0.6885 bounce high and the ema20 at 0.68985 would put the CPI leg fib 61.8% zone in play
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, then Fedspeak late Thu and US core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off new low · RSI 39 · price 0.6875
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak. The hot US CPI beat knocked price to a fresh swing low at 0.6843, and it now trades beneath the ema20 at 0.6902 and the ema50 at 0.6941, with EMA20 still below EMA50. RSI has recovered to 39.1 from sub-30 readings while ATR(14) holds in a steady 22-25 pip band, so the bounce reads as corrective so far, with the lower-high trendline from 0.7024 and the 38.2% fib retrace near 0.6912 just overhead.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.69021, 0.69305, 0.69406
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6931 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline read
Failure to hold the 0.6843 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 0.6800 round number
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 0.7068; fresh low 0.6843 after CPI.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs at 0.7068, 0.7024 and 0.6930 since late October. The hot US CPI beat knocked price to a fresh cpi low at 0.6843, below the nfp low at 0.6854, as Fed hike pricing leans toward 50bp. That new low came with RSI near 31 against roughly 20 at the prior low, a bullish divergence. Price is below the ema20 (0.6905) and the ema50 (0.6943), both still sloping lower, and ATR(14) holding in a 22-25 pip band shows no compression.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6905, 0.6930, 0.6943
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6930 lower high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the November sell-off fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6843 cpi low and the 0.6854 nfp low extends the lower-low structure
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6905, then the ema50 at 0.6943, would confirm the RSI divergence is translating into price
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, then US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate Thu
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read