AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off day low · RSI 44 · price 0.68446
Lower highs from 0.6872 through London and NY; early Asia rebound below both EMAs.
Hot US CPI and Fed hike pricing kept AUDUSD on a lower-high chain from 0.6872 through London and NY. A failed post-rollover spike to the 0.6855 rollover high was followed by a sweep below the 0.6843 NY low to a 0.6839 day low. Early Asia has reclaimed the NY low but sits just under the ema20 at 0.6846, with ATR(14) expanding to 3.9 pips from 2.4.
Support: 0.68432, 0.68389
Resistance: 0.68462, 0.68516, 0.68551
What it said to watch
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~14 min (00:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6852, near the 38.2% fib and the lower-highs trendline, breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.6855 rollover high sits just above
Failure to hold the 0.6839 day low exposes the 0.6833 support zone flagged in the macro digest
Slipping back below the 0.6843 NY low turns the sweep into a plain lower-low
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high; NY range 0.6845–0.6853 broken lower.
Lower highs since the 0.6885 Asian high carried the London-NY decline from 0.6872 into a 0.6845–0.6853 NY range. As the USD held yearly highs on the hot-CPI and 50bp Fed repricing, early Asia broke below that range to a 0.6839 session low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6846) and ema50 (0.6852), RSI(14) is 38.8 after a 31.8 dip, and ATR(14) has expanded to 3.8 pips from 2.4.
Support: 0.68389, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68463, 0.68532
What it said to watch
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~30 min could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.6839 session low exposes the 0.6833 7-month low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.6846 and the 0.6853 ny range top would undo the range break
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding into new lows · RSI 32 · price 0.68393
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY range broken lower in early Asia.
Lower highs ran from the 0.6885 Asian high through London and NY as the dollar extended its post-CPI bid. Price then sat in a 0.6845–0.6853 range through NY hours, then broke lower after a rejected rollover spike high at 0.6855. The new session low at 0.6839 sits under the 0.6843 NY low and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 31.8 and ATR widening from 2.4 to 3.8 pips; the 7m low at 0.6833 is 6 pips away.
Support: 0.68391, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68432, 0.68467, 0.68551
What it said to watch
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~44 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.6843 NY low negates the range break; ema20 at 0.6847 caps above that
Break of the 0.6833 7m low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the current session low
RSI(14) dropping below 30 would mark the move oversold
Reclaim of the 0.6855 spike high would break the lower-highs trendline
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding into the lows · RSI 33 · price 0.68456
Lower highs at 0.68850 / 0.68719 / 0.68528, fresh session low after rollover.
AUDUSD bled from the 0.68850 Asian high through London and NY on the post-CPI dollar bid. After rollover it undercut the 0.68432 NY low to a session low at 0.68409, with the thin-liquidity spike high at 0.68551 rejected under the falling trendline. Price sits below the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is 33.1 and not yet oversold, and ATR has expanded to 3.6 pips from 2.4.
Support: 0.68409, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68475, 0.68527, 0.68551
What it said to watch
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
Acceptance below the 0.68409 session low exposes the 7-month low at 0.6833
Ema20 at 0.68475 capping the current bounce; a reclaim of it shifts the near-term read
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.68527 and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY range broken to the downside.
AUDUSD has sold off steadily from the Asian high at 0.6885 through London and NY, with the USD bid on hot CPI and Fed 50bp talk. NY held a 0.6843–0.6853 range until a thin rollover spike to 0.6855 failed as a false break, and price then broke the NY low into a fresh window low at 0.6842. Price sits below a declining ema20 (0.68481) and ema50 (0.68532), close to the range top. RSI(14) is 35.2, not yet oversold, ATR is ticking up to 3.3 pips, and the 7-month low near 0.6840 sits directly beneath.
Support: 0.6840, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68432, 0.68481, 0.68532
What it said to watch
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~74 min could materially shift this read; thin early-Asia liquidity amplifies moves
Failure to hold the 7-month low at 0.6840 exposes the 0.6833 SocGen level
M15 close back above the 0.68432 NY low, then the ema20 at 0.68481, would mark the break as a false break
Recovery of the 0.6853 range top, near the ema50, negates the downtrend read from the Asian high selloff
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.6845
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high, tight range above 0.6843 since NY.
The selloff from the 0.6885 Asian high bottomed at the 0.6843 session low during the NY session, the end of the London-NY leg. Price has since sat in a narrow box beneath the 0.6853 range top, below a falling ema20 (0.68487) and ema50 (0.68537), with USD strength after hot CPI keeping AUD pinned. The rollover spike to 0.6855 faded straight back toward the session low, and RSI sits at 40.6.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68487, 0.6853, 0.68537
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 session low exposes the 0.6833 7m low
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema50 invalidates the compression-below-ema20 read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~90 min, no forecast) could break the Asian-open range
ATR rising from 2.4 to 3.2 pips largely reflects the rollover spike; thin Asia liquidity
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near day low · RSI 51 · price 0.68495
Lower highs from Asia high; tight 0.6845–0.6855 range since NY low.
AUDUSD sold off from the 0.6885 Asia high to a 0.6843 day low in NY as the post-CPI USD bid extended, then compressed in a 0.6845–0.6855 range. The rollover spike to 0.6855 stalled under the ema50 at 0.6854, with price holding just above the ema20 at 0.6849, RSI(14) back to 51.4 from 34 and ATR(14) at 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.68491, 0.68451, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.6854, 0.68612
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema50 and the 0.6855 spike high breaks the range top and the lower highs trendline, putting the 0.6861 london low back in view.
Failure at the ema20 exposes the 0.6845 ny low and 0.6843 day low. A break below extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6840 zone.
0.6853 marks the 23.6% retracement of the Asia-NY drop and has capped the range all session.
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~104 min) could break the compressed range in thin Asia-open liquidity.
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.6847
Lower highs from Asian high; tight range above NY session low.
AUDUSD slid from the 0.6885 Asian high through London and NY on the dollar's post-CPI bid, printing lower highs into a 0.6843 session low. Since then it has compressed in a 0.6843–0.6853 range below both EMAs, capped by the ema20 at 0.6849, with ATR(14) shrinking to 2.4 pips and the late low at 0.6845 holding above the session low.
Support: 0.68451, 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68489, 0.68532, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema50 (0.6854) ends the compression read; the 0.6872 London high would then be the next reference
Break of the 0.6843 session low puts the 0.6833 7m low (7-month low) in play
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2h) could break the range in either direction
Lower highs from the London lower high; tight late-NY range resolving at its floor.
AUD/USD has slid since London capped the 0.6872 lower high. The USD bid after hot CPI drove the NY session low to 0.6843, and the bounce stalled at the 0.6853 range top near the 38.2% fib. Late-NY trade is pressing the range floor below a declining ema20 (0.6849) and ema50 (0.6854). ATR has compressed to 2.4 pips and RSI at 37.8 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68491, 0.6853, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6833 7-month low
Reclaim of the 0.6853 range top and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.6872 lower high
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2h) could break the ATR compression in either direction
Lower highs since London; tight post-drop range sitting on its floor.
AUD bled lower through London and NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, putting in a 0.6843 session low at 15:00 UTC. It then held a tight 0.6847–0.6853 range, with the range top sitting at the 38.2% fib of the NY drop. Late NY is pressing the range floor below a falling ema20, with ATR compressed to 2.5 pips and RSI(14) at 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68494, 0.6853, 0.68548
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6843 session low puts the 0.6840 psych / 7-month-low zone in play
Recovery above the 0.6853 range top and ema50 at 0.6855 breaks the lower highs sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2.5h, no forecast) could break the current compression
Lower highs since the Asian high; post-NY range pressing its floor.
AUDUSD has carved lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high through London and NY, with hot US CPI and Fed hike pricing keeping the dollar bid. After the 0.6843 NY low, price held a 0.6847–0.6853 range, now pressing its floor after NY close below the ema20 and ema50. RSI(14) sits at 35.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68499, 0.68532, 0.68551
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6840 7m low (7-month low) zone
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.6850 and the 0.6853 range top challenges the lower highs trendline
Close above the ema50 at 0.6855 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2.7h) could expand the compressed range
The hot-CPI USD bid kept AUDUSD on a chain of lower highs from the 0.6885 Asia high to the 0.6843 NY low. The rebound from the NY leg stalled at the 0.6853 range top, short of its 38.2% retracement. Since mid-NY, price has compressed between the 0.6847 range low and 0.6853, below a falling ema20 (0.6850) and ema50 (0.6856), with ATR(14) shrinking to 2.6 pips from 4.3.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68503, 0.68532
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and the ema50 at 0.6856 breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.6847 range low exposes the NY low at 0.6843 and the 0.6840 support zone
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~3h) could break the Asia-open compression
Tight post-selloff range under both EMAs, late NY.
London broke below the Asian low near 0.6860 and NY extended the selloff to 0.6843 as the hot-CPI USD bid persisted. Since then price has held a 6-pip range between 0.6847 and 0.6853. It sits just under the EMA20 and below the EMA50 at 0.6856, with ATR(14) compressing to 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68532, 0.68558, 0.6860
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6853 range high and the ema50 at 0.6856 would reopen the 0.6860 asian low and the 38.2% fib of the selloff
Loss of the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 ny low; a break there resumes the downtrend
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~3h (00:00 UTC) could break the compressed range
Lower highs from the Asia high; tight 0.6847–0.6853 range above the NY low.
AUD bled 42 pips from the 0.6885 Asia high to the 0.6843 NY low as the post-CPI dollar bid extended, with the lower-highs line capping every bounce. Since then price has gone flat in a 0.6847–0.6853 range just under the ema20, RSI(14) neutral at 44 and ATR compressing from 4.4 to 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68506, 0.68532, 0.68561
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and the ema50 at 0.6856 breaks the consolidation to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 ny low and the 0.6840 support zone
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~3.5h, no forecast) could break the range
Lower-highs line near 0.6860 caps the Asia high to NY low drop unless cleared
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 45 · price 0.68501
Lower highs from the Asia high, now a tight range above the session low.
AUD bled lower through London and NY on the post-CPI dollar bid. Lower highs ran from the 0.6885 Asia high to a 0.6843 session low early in NY. Since then price has compressed into a 0.6847–0.6853 range below both EMAs, with ATR(14) shrinking from 4.4 to 2.8 pips and RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68532, 0.68563, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6847 range low and the 0.6843 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6833 support
Close above the 0.6853 range top and the ema50 at 0.6856 breaks the consolidation and exposes the 0.6872 swing high
The bounce has retraced only about 35% of the London-NY drop, which keeps the downtrend read intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (no forecast) could break the compressed range
Lower highs from Asia; tight NY range above session low.
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high held through London. The sell-off resumed into the London-NY transition as USD extended its post-CPI bid, printing a 0.6843 session low in the first hour of NY. Since then price has been boxed in a 0.6847–0.6853 range, just under the ema20 and below the ema50. RSI(14) has recovered from 26 to 44 and ATR has compressed to 3 pips, with only a shallow fib retracement of the London-NY leg so far.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68509, 0.68532, 0.68569
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range high brings the ema50 at 0.6857 and the fib 38.2% near 0.6854 into play
Break below the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 session low and the 0.6840 7-month low zone
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~4h) could break the compressed range
Lower highs trendline near 0.6860 caps any rebound while intact
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.68494
Lower highs from 0.6872; tight range 0.6847–0.6853 above session low.
NY session broke the Asian low at 0.6860 and printed a 0.6843 session low as the hot-CPI dollar bid extended, with RSI(14) dipping to 23 before recovering to 44. Since then price has held a tight 0.6847–0.6853 range just under ema20, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.2 pips after London close.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6851, 0.68532, 0.68605
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens a retest of the 0.6860 Asian low
Failure to hold the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 session low, then the 0.6833 7m low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~4.5h) could break the range
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.68475
Lower highs inside a tight 0.6847–0.6853 range above the NY session low.
London broke below the 0.6865–0.6885 Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 0.6843 session low, with the USD holding yearly highs on Fed repricing. The bounce stalled at the 0.6853 range top near the 38.2% fib, and price is pressing the 0.6847 range low on lower highs, below ema20 and ema50. ATR has compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68471, 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68511, 0.6853, 0.68575
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 session low, then the 0.6840 psych handle near the 7-month lows
Close back above ema20 at 0.6851 and the 0.6853 range top breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of ema50 at 0.6858 negates the intraday downtrend read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (no forecast) could jolt the compressed range
Lower highs since London; tight range above NY session low.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried AUDUSD through London and NY to a session low at 0.6843. The bounce stalled at the 0.6853 range top, just under the 38.2% retrace of the 0.6872–0.6843 selloff. Price is now compressing in a 5-pip range below the ema20 (0.6852) and ema50 (0.6858), with RSI(14) back at 40.5 from 23 and ATR easing to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68475, 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68515, 0.6853, 0.68579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 session low and the 0.6840 7-month low zone
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 tests the lower-highs trendline and ema50 near 0.6858
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~5h) could break the range
Lower highs from the Asia peak; tight range 0.6847–0.6853 above the NY low.
Asia's 0.6885 high gave way to a London break below the Asian range and an NY extension to a 0.6843 NY low, retesting the 7-month low zone as the dollar pressed yearly highs on hot-CPI Fed repricing. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6847–0.6853 range just under ema20 (0.6852), with RSI(14) recovered from 23 to 41 and ATR down to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.68475, 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68532, 0.68583, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 opens a retest of ema50 at 0.6858, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia–NY drop
Break of the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 NY low, then SocGen sup at 0.6833
Lower high at 0.6872 caps the descending trendline; a reclaim breaks the intraday lower-high chain
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (~5h) could break the late-NY range
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, now compressing · RSI 42 · price 0.68495
Lower highs from Asian high, tight range above NY low.
AUD/USD faded from the 0.6885 Asian high through London, and the NY open extended the slide to a 0.6843 NY low as the USD pressed yearly highs on post-CPI Fed hike repricing. Late NY has compressed into a 0.6847–0.6853 range, with the range top and the ema20 near 0.6852 both overhead. ATR(14) is easing to 3.5 pips and RSI(14) sits at 42.
Support: 0.68472, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68532, 0.68586, 0.68605
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and the ema20 opens the 0.6859 ema50, then the 0.6861 prior low from the London breakdown
Break of the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 NY low, with the 0.6833 support zone below
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (in ~5.5h) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the NY low · RSI 42 · price 0.68489
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight range 0.6847–0.6853 under ema20.
AUDUSD slid 42 pips from the Asian high at 0.6885 to a session low at 0.6843 in early NY hours, as the dollar held near its yearly high after the hot US CPI. The pair has since chopped in a 0.6847–0.6853 range low/range top band capped by the ema20. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 41.6 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.68475, 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6853, 0.6859, 0.68605
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 opens the ema50 at 0.6859 and the 0.6861 prior low
Break of the 0.6843 session low extends the downtrend toward SocGen 0.6833 support
Descending trendline from the Asian high near 0.6862 caps rallies; the fib 38.2% sits close to that level
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (~6h) could break the range either way
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling after London close · RSI 40 · price 0.68486
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asia peak; tight 0.6848–0.6853 range above the session low.
The USD push toward its yearly high drove an NY selloff from the 0.6872 lower high to a 0.6843 session low, retesting Tuesday's 0.6845–0.6840 lows. Price has since held a 5-pip range below the 0.6853 range top. It sits under both EMAs, RSI(14) has recovered to 39.7 from a sub-25 dip, and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68532, 0.68594, 0.68719
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6853 range top and the lower highs trendline would put the ema50 at 0.6859 in play
Loss of the 0.6843 session low exposes the SocGen support at 0.6833
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 GMT (~6h) could shift the Asian session read
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.6850
Lower highs from 0.6885; tight base above the 0.6843 NY low.
The USD bid after the hot CPI print and Waller's 50bp talk extended the London-NY leg from 0.6872 to a 0.6843 NY low, below the Asian range and along the descending line from the 0.6885 Asia high. Since then price has held a 0.6847–0.6853 range floor-to-cap box just under the ema20. RSI is back near 42 from a sub-25 trough and ATR is compressing to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.6847, 0.6843, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.6853, 0.6860, 0.6872
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 ema20 and the 0.6860 ema50 would test the descending line near 0.6863; 0.6872 lower high caps the chain
Failure to hold the 0.6847 range floor and 0.6843 NY low exposes the 0.6840 tuesday low
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT (~6h), could break the late-NY range
Lower highs from Asian high; tight range under ema20.
A lower-high chain from the 0.6885 Asian high broke the Asian range in London. The NY-session leg then hit a session low at 0.6843, near Tuesday's post-CPI low, as the hot-CPI dollar bid held. Since then price has been compressing in a 0.6848–0.6853 range, holding the range floor but capped at the ema20 and below the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.6872 lower high. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 43 and ATR(14) is 4 pips.
Support: 0.68476, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68533, 0.68602, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward Tuesday's 0.6840 area
Loss of the 0.6848 range floor puts the session low back in play
Close above the ema20 at 0.6853 and the 38.2% fib breaks the range. The ema50 at 0.6860 then caps the next test
Reclaim of the 0.6872 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the Asian high
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~6.5h (Thu 00:00 GMT) could shift this read
Lower highs from London; tight NY range 0.6843–0.6853 below both EMAs.
London and NY broke below the Asian range (0.6860–0.6885) as the USD pressed toward its yearly high after Tuesday's hot CPI, with the NY low printed at 0.6843 off the 0.6872 lower high. Price has since compressed in a 10-pip band under the 0.6853 range top, with ema20 at 0.6854 just above it. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 38.8 and ATR(14) is flat at 4 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68528, 0.68606, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 breaks the NY consolidation and puts ema50 at 0.6861 in play
Failure to hold the 0.6843 NY low confirms a lower low toward SocGen support at 0.6833
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 0.6872 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT (~6.7h), could materially shift this read in the Asia session
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 42 · price 0.68515
Lower highs from London open; tight post-low range under ema20.
AUDUSD fell from the 0.6872 London pivot to a 0.6843 session low in early NY hours, retesting Tuesday's low zone as the USD extended its post-CPI bid. Late NY has compressed it between the 0.6847 range low and 0.6853 range top, just under the ema20, with RSI(14) back at 42 from a sub-25 oversold dip and the ema50 at 0.6861 sitting on the 61.8% fib of the drop.
Support: 0.68472, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68528, 0.68541, 0.68611
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6854 (range top / ema20) opens the 0.6858–0.6861 fib and ema50 zone
Failure to hold the 0.6847 range low exposes the 0.6843 session low
Close below the 0.6843 session low confirms a lower low beneath Tuesday's low
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~7h could break the range
16:45 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 37 · price 0.68497
Lower highs from Asia high; tight range above NY low.
Lower highs along the lower-high trendline from the 0.6885 Asia high broke the Asian range during London. The slide extended to a 0.6843 NY low just above the tuesday low as the USD built on its post-CPI bid. Since then price has held a 0.6847–0.6853 range, with the range top capping the bounce under the ema20 and ema50 and just shy of the 38.2% retracement of the selloff. RSI(14) is 37.4, recovering from 23.1 oversold; ATR is 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.6847, 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68528, 0.68543, 0.68614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 ny low reopens the 0.6840 tuesday low and SocGen's 0.6833
Close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 (0.68543) shifts focus to the ema50 at 0.6861 and the lower-high trendline
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (~7h) could reshape the Asia-session read
Lower highs from Asia peak; tight NY consolidation above session low.
Lower highs ran from the 0.6885 Asia peak through London as the post-CPI USD bid extended. NY swept Tuesday's lows to a 0.6843 session low, and RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 40.6. Price is now holding a 0.6847–0.6853 bounce-low range, capped under the ema20 at 0.6855 and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop.
Support: 0.68472, 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68549, 0.68619, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6855 (38.2% fib) opens the ema50 at 0.6862 and the 0.6872 lower high
Loss of the 0.6847 bounce low and the 0.6843 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward socgen sup at 0.6833
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (~7.5h) could shift this read during the Asia session
ATR 4.1 pips: the consolidation is compressing into the NY afternoon
Lower highs from Asian high; tight base 0.6847–0.6853.
AUDUSD extended the post-CPI USD-driven slide through London and NY, with lower highs along the descending line from the 0.6885 Asian high and a 0.6843 NY low that retested yesterday's 0.6844 base. Since then price has held a 0.6847 higher low but is capped at a 0.6853 range top, just under the 38.2% fib and below ema20 at 0.6855. RSI(14) has recovered from 23 to 42 and ATR(14) is 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.68472, 0.68432
Resistance: 0.68528, 0.68553, 0.68579
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6853 range top and ema20 at 0.6855 opens the path back to the broken london low at 0.6858 and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 0.6847 higher low brings the 0.6843 ny low back into play; a break there extends the downtrend toward the 0.6840 zone
Price staying below the descending line from the Asian high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off day low · RSI 39 · price 0.68512
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high; marginal higher low at 0.6847.
Lower highs since the 0.6885 Asian high. London broke the Asian low near 0.6872, and NY pushed to 0.6843, a marginal sweep of the prior-day low, before the bounce stalled near 0.6853, just under the 38.2% fib and the ema20 at 0.6856. Hot US CPI and a dollar near yearly highs remain the backdrop into London close; RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from 23, with ATR(14) at 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.6847, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68556, 0.68628, 0.6872
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6856 and the 38.2% fib exposes the ema50 and downtrend line near 0.6863
Failure to hold the 0.6847 higher low puts the 0.6843 day low back in play; a break below extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 0.6872 asian low would undo the London breakdown
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in Asia
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; first bounce off 0.6843.
London broke the 0.6865–0.6885 Asian range lower and the firm-USD selloff carried through the London-NY transition. That leg carved lower highs from 0.6872 down to a 0.6843 session low, retesting yesterday's post-CPI low, where demand stepped in and RSI(14) recovered from 23 to 35. Price is still below a falling ema20 (0.6856) and ema50 (0.6863), with ATR(14) expanding to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68525, 0.6856, 0.68631
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6843 session low and 0.6840 round number extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.6852 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend, with ema20 at 0.6856 next
A reclaim of the 0.6863 lower high near ema50 would neutralise the London-NY selloff structure
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift this read in the Asia session
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off the lows · RSI 38 · price 0.68507
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asia high; NY retest of prior low at 0.6843.
Post-CPI USD strength kept AUDUSD stepping lower from the 0.6885 Asia high. NY hours slipped to 0.6843, matching yesterday's prior low, before a bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib of the sell leg. Price sits below ema20 (0.6857) and ema50 (0.6864); RSI(14) has recovered to 38 from 23 and ATR of 4.4 pips is expanding.
Support: 0.6849, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68547, 0.68568, 0.68638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6843 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6833 support
Close back above the 0.6855 swing high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6849 minor low puts the prior low back in play
Mid-NY session with the London close near; a 50% fib of the sell leg sits at 0.6858 near ema20
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift the Asia session read
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high; NY low at 0.6843 swept Tuesday's low.
Lower highs since the 0.6885 Asian-session high: London broke the Asian range low and the NY drop from 0.6872 tagged 0.6843, a sweep of Tuesday's post-CPI prior low, as USD stays bid on Fed 50bp talk. A sharp rebound bar to 0.6852 lifted RSI(14) to 39 from 23 with ATR(14) expanding to 4.5 pips, but price remains below the ema20 (0.6857) and ema50 (0.6864).
Support: 0.6850, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68573, 0.6861, 0.68643
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6843 prior low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
Failure to hold the 0.6850 round number after the rebound bar weakens the sweep read
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.6861 london low would challenge the lower-highs sequence, with the ema50 at 0.6864 above
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift the Asian-session read
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high; NY retesting 24h low.
Hot US CPI and the Fed-hike repricing keep USD bid. The NY open extended the London slide through the 0.6850 breakdown point to 0.68432, retesting yesterday's 24h low at 0.6843. Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high are intact and price sits below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) oversold at 25.8 and ATR widening to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.6850, 0.68578, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6840 multi-mo low breaks the double test of the 24h low; SocGen's 0.6833 is the next marked level
Reclaim of the 0.6850 breakdown point and the ema20 at 0.6858 would stall the lower-highs chain; the 0.6872 lower high caps above
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT and the Fed speaker run Thursday could shift the read
Lower highs from 0.6885; Asian range broken lower.
A chain of lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian session high carried London through the 0.6860 Asian low, and early NY hours have extended the slide into the 0.6843 prior low set after Tuesday's hot US CPI. RSI(14) is oversold at 23.1 with ATR widening to 4.1 pips, and price sits below a falling ema20 at 0.6859.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68495, 0.68591, 0.68605
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6850 swing low eases the breakdown read; reclaiming ema20 and the 0.6860 asian low turns it into a range
Sustained trade below the 0.6840 psych level and multi-month low extends the lower-low chain
A close above the lower-highs trendline, near 0.6867, breaks the descending sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT, could shift this read overnight
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NY · RSI 29 · price 0.68499
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high, lower lows into NY.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs along a descending trendline from the 0.6885 Asian high, sliding through London into a 0.68495 session low in the first hours of NY as the post-CPI USD bid holds. RSI(14) at 29.2 is oversold with a slight bullish divergence on the latest low, but price sits below the ema20 (0.68606) and ema50 (0.68664), and the 0.68434 prior low is only 6 pips under; ATR is edging up to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.68495, 0.68434, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68606, 0.68664, 0.68719
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.68434 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6840 psych
M15 close back above ema20 at 0.68606 eases the downtrend read; ema50 at 0.68664 sits next
Break above the 0.68719 lower high clears the descending trendline and fib zone
Holding the 0.68495 session low with RSI rising would confirm the bullish divergence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift the read in the Asia session
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.68546
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.6885 Asia high; NY open printed a new session low.
Lower highs since the 0.6885 Asia high, with London and the NY open extending to a 0.68495 session low as USD stays bid after the hot US CPI. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) has lifted to 31.9 from 25.8 and ATR is a quiet 3.8 pips. The 0.68434 prior low from Tuesday's post-CPI drop is the next reference beneath.
Support: 0.68495, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68615, 0.68719, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.68495 session low exposes the 0.68434 prior low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.68615 and the 0.68719 lower high would break the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 0.6885 Asia high would retrace the full Asia-to-NY fib leg
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift this read; US claims and Fedspeak follow Thursday
Asian range broken lower, NY extending to fresh session low.
With USD bid after the hot CPI, London broke below the Asian low at 0.6860 and the first hour of NY extended to a session low at 0.6850, with each bounce capped by the falling trendline from the 0.6885 Asian high. RSI(14) has lifted to 32 from 26, price remains below ema20 (0.6862) and ema50 (0.6868), and Tuesday's prior low at 0.6843 sits about 7 pips below the session low.
Support: 0.6850, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.6860, 0.6862, 0.6872
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6850 session low exposes the 0.6843 prior low
A close back above 0.6860–0.6862 (asian low, ema20) puts the 0.6872 london high and the falling trendline back in play; the 50% fib of the london high drop sits at 0.6861
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NY open · RSI 26 · price 0.6852
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high, fresh session low.
London kept printing lower highs off the 0.6885 Asian high. Price then broke the 0.6860 breakdown shelf and set a 0.6851 session low into the NY open, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 25.8 oversold. The pressure fits the firm USD after hot US CPI and 50bp Fed talk, and Tuesday's 0.6843 prior low sits 8 pips below.
Support: 0.68512, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68605, 0.68631, 0.68719
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6843 prior low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6840 multi-month area
Recovery back above the 0.6860 breakdown shelf and ema20 at 0.6863 would neutralise the session-low break
M15 close above the 0.6872 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift the read in Asia
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; London low broken into the NY open.
AUDUSD has stepped lower from the 0.6885 Asia high. The latest lower high came at 0.6872 and the 0.6858 break level gave way into the NY open, taking price to 0.6852, just above the round number and 9 pips over yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 0.6843. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.5 and price trades below a falling ema20 (0.6864) and ema50, with the USD still bid on hot CPI and Waller's 50bp talk.
Support: 0.6850, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6858, 0.68643, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6850 round number exposes the 0.6843 prior low, the bottom of the post-CPI drop
Reclaim of the 0.6858 break level and the ema20 at 0.6864 would stall the lower-low sequence
Break above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.6872 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ATR at 3.7 pips is compressed; a fresh push through the prior low with expanding range shifts the read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could reprice AUD during the Asia session
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.68587
LH/LL chain from 0.6885 Asia high; Asian range low broken in London.
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asia high. London broke the Asian range low near 0.6867 and pressed to a 0.6858 session low into the NY open, as the post-CPI USD bid persists. Price is below the ema20 (0.6866) and ema50 (0.6869), with RSI(14) at 34.4, soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) steady at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.68579, 0.6850, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68632, 0.68656, 0.68719
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6858 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6850 round number and the 0.6843 cpi low
A reclaim of the 0.6863 breakdown ledge and the ema20 near 0.6866 would stall the leg
A close above the 0.6872 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the LH sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT, could shift the read into Asia
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD down to its cpi low at 0.6843. The Asia rebound stalled at the 0.6885 asian high, and the London session has since printed lower highs, the latest at 0.6872, with a fresh session low at 0.6859, right at the 61.8% of the rebound fib. Price is below ema20 and ema50, RSI at 36 is not oversold, and ATR at 3.4 pips points to a measured grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.68585, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68662, 0.68719, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6872 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; ema20 at 0.6866 is the first cap
Failure to hold the 0.6859 session low and the 61.8% rebound fib exposes the 0.6843 cpi low
NY open flows with the USD bid after CPI could extend the session range; AU inflation expectations Thu 00:00 GMT is the next AUD event
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 0.6862
LH/LL chain from Asia high; session low 0.6859 being tested.
AUD has bled lower from the 0.6885 asia high in a clean lower-high sequence. London capped the 0.6872 lower high and pressed to a 0.6859 session low, with price below a falling ema20 at 0.6867 and the ema50 at 0.6870. The firm post-CPI USD bid is still the backdrop, with RSI(14) at 36.7 and not yet stretched, and ATR(14) at 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.68585, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68668, 0.68719, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6872 lower high breaks the LH chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6859 session low exposes the 0.6843 prior low from Tuesday's post-CPI drop
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.6867 would be the first sign the decline from the asia high is stalling
NY open has no high-impact US data, so rates and equities steer USD; AU inflation expectations land Thu 00:00 GMT
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.6861
London broke the Asian range low; lower highs and lower lows into NY open.
London broke below the Asian range and has carved lower highs off the 0.6885 asian high, now pressing the 0.6860 session low ahead of NY open as USD stays bid after Tuesday's hot CPI. Price sits below a declining ema20 (0.6867) and ema50 (0.6871) with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR at only 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.6860, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68674, 0.68719, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6860 session low exposes the 0.6843 prior low from the post-CPI selloff
Reclaim of the 0.6872 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and the downtrend read
Rejection at ema20 0.6867 would keep the sequence intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift AUD tone after this session
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 38 · price 0.68613
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high.
Steady lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.6885 Asia high, with London pressing to a 0.6860 session low. Price is below a falling ema20 (0.6868) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 38.1, and sits on the 61.8% retracement of the post-CPI rebound from the 0.6843 cpi low. The 0.6872 swing high and the descending trendline from the Asia high are capping each bounce, consistent with the USD bid that followed the hot US CPI.
Support: 0.68605, 0.6850, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68679, 0.68719, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6872 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6860 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6850 round number and the 0.6843 cpi low
Recapturing the ema20 at 0.6868 would be the first sign the London selling is stalling
NY open with no high-impact data today; Thu Fedspeak and Fri PPI on the 25bp vs 50bp debate are the next USD risk
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 0.68618
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asia high; retesting 0.6861 London low.
The post-CPI rebound stalled at the 0.6885 Asia high, the 61.8% retracement of the drop. London has since printed a chain of lower highs, and the latest rejection at the 0.6872 lower high has price back under ema20 (0.6869) and ema50 (0.6871), retesting the 0.6861 London low. RSI(14) sits at 34.8 and ATR(14) has edged up to 3.7 pips, as the hot US CPI and Fed 50bp talk keep USD bid into late London.
Support: 0.68605, 0.6850, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68685, 0.68718, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6861 london low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6850 psych and the 0.6843 cpi low
Close back above the 0.6872 lower high breaks the London lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
NY open shortly with no high-impact US data today; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC Thu could shift the Asia session read
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.68657
Lower highs under descending trendline, price below both EMAs.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.6885 Asian high. London has been capped under a descending trendline, and the late-session bounce was rejected at the 0.6872 lower high, next to the ema50 at 0.68717. Price sits below both EMAs, about halfway back through the post-CPI rebound fib, with RSI 42 and ATR 3.5 pips, while USD stays firm after the hot CPI print.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68694, 0.68718, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6869 and the 0.6872 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
Failure to hold the london low at 0.6861 extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6843 post-CPI low
Reclaim of the 0.6885 Asian high would undo the intraday downtrend
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC Thu could shift this read
11:31 UTC
Flat after post-CPI rebound, lower highs since Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.68701
London lower highs; dip below Asian low reclaimed, price pinned near ema50.
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD from 0.6905 to a 0.6843 cpi low yesterday. The Asia rebound stalled at the 0.6885 asian high, and late London is printing descending highs: it slipped below the 0.6867 asian low to a 0.6861 london low before reclaiming it. Price at 0.6871 sits just above ema20 (0.6870) and just under ema50 (0.6872), with RSI(14) at 51 and ATR at 3.4 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of the NY open.
Support: 0.68667, 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6872, 0.68777, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6867 asian low would void the false-break read and expose the 0.6861 london low
London low at 0.6861 sits near the 61.8% retrace of the post-CPI bounce; losing it opens the path back to the 0.6843 cpi low
Clearing ema50 at 0.6872 and the 0.6878 london high would break the descending highs line; 0.6885 asian high is the next cap
No high-impact data today; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
11:16 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling, lower highs since Asia · RSI 52 · price 0.6870
Inside Asian range after false break of the low.
Mid-London, price dipped below the asian low to a london low at 0.6861. That was reclaimed as a false break, and price is back at 0.6870, just above EMA20 and under the ema50 at 0.6872. The rebound off the post-CPI 0.6843 low stalled at the asian high of 0.6885, near the 61.8% post-CPI fib, and has printed lower highs since, with USD firm and no high-impact data today.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6861
Resistance: 0.6872, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6872 and the lower-highs line reopens the asian high at 0.6885
Failure to hold the london low at 0.6861 turns the false break into a range break of the Asian floor
ATR(14) at 3.5 pips: the 0.6865–0.6885 Asian range is ~6 ATRs wide
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 0.6868
Lower highs since 0.6885; London broke Asian range low, rebound capped at 0.6872.
With the USD still bid after Tuesday's hot US CPI, London broke below the Asian low at 0.6872 to a session low of 0.6861. The rebound met rejection at 0.6872, where the ema50 also sits, extending the descending highs from the 0.6885 Asian high. Price is below both EMAs, RSI 46.9 and ATR 3.5 pips, mid-to-late London.
Support: 0.6861, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68694, 0.6872, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low / ema50 at 0.6872 breaks the descending highs line and puts the 0.6885 Asian high in view
Holding under the ema20 at 0.6869 keeps the London rejection intact
Failure to hold the london low at 0.6861 confirms a lower-low, with the post-CPI cpi low at 0.6843 next
NY open brings no high-impact US data today. AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift the Asia read
Lower highs since the Asian high, London low holding.
AUD is holding above Tuesday's post-hot-CPI low at 0.6843, but every bounce since the 0.6885 Asian high has capped lower, and London set a session low at 0.6861. The 10:30 bounce faded at 0.6872, just under the ema50, with price below both EMAs. RSI 47 is neutral and ATR is 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68722, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6872 and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the London low at 0.6861 extends the lower-low chain toward the CPI low at 0.6843
Reclaiming the Asian high at 0.6885 voids the intraday downtrend read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift the read in Asia
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off London low · RSI 47 · price 0.68702
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high; London broke Asian low, now retesting.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.6885 Asian high, and London broke the Asian low to a 0.6861 london low. The forming bar is bouncing into the ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 0.6870, still below the ema50 at 0.6872, as the hot US CPI dollar bid keeps capping AUD rebounds.
Support: 0.68668, 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68723, 0.68739, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6874 swing high (≈50% fib) breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure back below the 0.6867 asian low reopens the 0.6861 london low; below that sits the 0.6843 ny low from the post-CPI selloff
RSI recovering from 34 to 46.6; ATR 3.6 pips points to tight intraday ranges
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift the Asian session read
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.68649
Asian range broken lower in London; LH/LL chain intact.
Mid-London, AUDUSD has broken below the 0.6874 asian low and set a london low at 0.6861. Highs keep stepping lower from the 0.6885 asian high, and price is capped under a falling ema20 (0.6870) and ema50 (0.6873). The USD bid from Tuesday's hot CPI keeps rebounds shallow; RSI(14) is 38.6 and ATR(14) is 3.5 pips, edging up from 2.9.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68697, 0.68737, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6870 and back inside the asian low at 0.6874 breaks the lower highs line
Loss of the 0.6861 london low exposes the 0.6843 cpi low, Tuesday's post-CPI session low
Reclaim of the 0.6885 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
No US data today; Thursday Fedspeak and AU inflation expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) are the next scheduled risk
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.68669
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke below the Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6867 and set a London low at 0.6861, extending the lower-high chain from the 0.6885 Asian high as the post-CPI USD bid holds. Price is retesting the Asian low from below, with the ema20 at 0.6870 and ema50 overhead, RSI(14) 38.7 and ATR(14) 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68702, 0.68739, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6874 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6861 London low opens the path toward the 0.6843 cpi low
Rejection at the ema20 near 0.6870 keeps the Asian range break intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 0.68625
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain since London open.
With the USD still bid after Tuesday's hot US CPI, London broke the Asian low at 0.6867 and printed lower highs at 0.6878, 0.6874 and 0.6873, with price under a falling ema20 (0.68708) and ema50. Price is now pressing the late NY low at 0.6860. RSI(14) sits at 34.2, short of oversold, and ATR(14) has widened to 3.6 pips from 2.9.
Support: 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68668, 0.68708, 0.68739
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late NY low at 0.6860 extends the lower-low chain toward the CPI low at 0.6843, the 0.6845-0.6840 zone in the digest
Recovery back above the Asian low at 0.6867 and the ema20 at 0.68708 would mark the range break as a false break
Close above the 0.6874 swing high breaks the London lower highs, near the fib 50% at 0.6873
No high-impact US data today; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC is the next scheduled AUD risk
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 35 · price 0.68627
Lower highs from 0.6885, pressing Asian range low.
The Asia bounce from the hot US CPI low stalled at 0.6885, and London has extended the lower-high chain, failing at 0.6874 before slipping back under ema20 (0.68716) to test the Asian low near 0.6861. Price is sitting around the 50–61.8% fib of the post-CPI bounce, with RSI(14) at 35 and ATR(14) edging up to 3.7 pips as London picks up pace.
Support: 0.6861, 0.6859, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68716, 0.6874, 0.6878
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asian low / 61.8% fib at 0.6859–0.6861 exposes the CPI low at 0.6843
Close back above the 0.6874 lower high and london high at 0.6878 breaks the lower-highs trendline read
No high-impact US data today; USD tone stays the driver until Thursday Fedspeak
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.6885 Asia high, pressing the Asian range low.
London has extended a lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 0.6885 asia high. The 08:30 UTC bounce was rejected at the ema50 (0.6874), and price is now testing the asian low near 0.6864, which is also the 50% retrace of the post-CPI bounce. RSI(14) sits at 38.3 with ATR up to 3.7 pips as the USD bid from Tuesday's hot US CPI reasserts.
Support: 0.68643, 0.68593, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68724, 0.68739, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6874 (ema50 and the descending highs line) breaks the lower-high sequence; ema20 at 0.6872 is first
Failure to hold the asian low at 0.6864 exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.6859, then the cpi low at 0.6843
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC; no high-impact US data in the coming session
Lower highs off the Asian high, London low holding.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD to a 0.6843 cpi low, but the slow recovery was rejected at the 0.6885 asian high, and London has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline. The 0.6866 london low held on the first test. Price sits below the ema20 and the flat ema50 at 0.6874, RSI(14) is neutral at 47.5 and ATR is edging up to 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.68663, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68742, 0.68777, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6866 london low exposes the 0.6843 cpi low and a deeper retracement of the post-CPI bounce
Close above the 0.6878 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.6885 asian high
Failure to reclaim the 0.6874 ema50 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
No high-impact US data today, so Fed headlines on a 50bp December move are the main intraday risk
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high, Asian low broken in London.
After the hot US CPI drove AUD to a 0.6843 cpi low, the pair has printed lower highs from the 0.6885 asian high. Early London broke the Asian range low to a 0.6866 london low before bouncing to the 38.2% fib, just under the ema50 at 0.6874, with EMA20 crossed below EMA50 and RSI recovering to 49 from 36.
Support: 0.68663, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68743, 0.68777, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6878 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6866 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6843 cpi low
Rejection at the ema50 / 38.2% fib keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) and Thursday Fedspeak on 50bp could materially shift this read
The post-CPI bounce off the 0.6843 cpi low stalled at the 0.6885 asian high, and has since printed a chain of lower highs. That chain includes a rejection at the 0.6878 london high early in the London session. Price is now pressing the 0.6865 asian low below both EMAs, with EMA20 crossing under EMA50, RSI(14) at 36.3 and ATR(14) a tight 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6860, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68732, 0.6878, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6865 asian low exposes the 0.6860 swing low, then the 0.6843 cpi low
Reclaiming the 0.6873 ema20 and the 0.6878 london high breaks the lower-high trendline read
A break above the 0.6885 asian high negates the London-session lower-high chain
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high, testing London low.
The hot US CPI drop to 0.6843 was recovered into a 0.6885 Asian high. Since then price has printed a chain of lower highs, and London has pressed it to a 0.6869 London low, at the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI bounce. Price sits below ema20 (0.6874) and ema50 (0.6875) after a fresh bearish EMA cross, with RSI at 41 and ATR compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68693, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.68738, 0.68777, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6867 Asian low exposes the 0.6860 swing low near the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 0.6878 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the fade
ema20 at 0.6874 capping retests keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
Next scheduled AUD input is AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, with Fedspeak on the 25bp vs 50bp debate also in focus
Lower highs inside Asian range, price at range floor into London open.
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD from 0.6905 to the 0.6843 cpi low on Tuesday. The recovery stalled at the 0.6885 asian high, and a chain of lower highs has since walked price back to the 0.6867 asian low into London open, sitting at the 38.2% retrace of the cpi recovery fib. Price is below the flattening ema20 (0.6874) and ema50 (0.6875), with RSI 42 and ATR compressed to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.68668, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68742, 0.68777, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6867 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6861 rollover low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6874 and the 0.6878 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure at 0.6861 puts the 0.6843 cpi low back in focus
Fedspeak and Thu AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (00:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday lower highs since Asian high · RSI 39 · price 0.68697
Pullback from 0.6885, stalling at 38.2% of post-CPI rebound.
Early London has pushed lower from the 0.6885 Asian high. The 07:30 UTC bar broke the 0.6872 pullback low and closed at 0.6870, below the flat ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of the rebound from the hot-US-CPI low at 0.6843, ATR(14) compressed at 3.2 pips, with the 0.6865 ny close shelf and the 0.6860 asian low next below.
Support: 0.6865, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68746, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6875 (ema20) and the descending trendline from the asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.6865 ny close exposes the 0.6860 asian low, then the 0.6843 cpi low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC and Thursday Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asian high, inside Asian range.
The rebound from the 0.6843 low after the hot US CPI topped at the 0.6885 Asian high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs inside the Asian range, set a fresh session low at 0.6872 and now sits just under a flat ema20/ema50 near 0.6875, around the 38.2% fib of the CPI rebound. RSI is neutral at 50 and ATR has compressed to 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.68717, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68751, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6872 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6860 asian low
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.6878 and the ema20 neutralises the drift read
A break of the 0.6860 asian low exposes the 0.6843 cpi low
London open volatility could break the 3-pip ATR compression either way of the Asian range
Rejection or break at the 0.6885 asian high defines the next leg; 0.6900 psych sits above
07:16 UTC
Neutral drift lower after Asian rebound · RSI 49 · price 0.68745
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high; price inside the Asian range.
The rebound off the hot US CPI cpi low at 0.6843 extended to the 0.6885 asian high at 02:00 UTC, with AUD bid in Asia per the digest. Since then a chain of lower highs (0.6881, 0.6879 lower high) has pulled price just under the flat ema20 and ema50 near 0.6875 into the London open. RSI is neutral at 48.9, ATR has compressed to 2.9 pips, and the 0.6872 session low is the nearest floor.
Support: 0.68717, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68751, 0.68791, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6872 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.6861 asian low
Close above the 0.6879 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and puts the 0.6885 asian high back in play
Holding below the ema20 at 0.68751 keeps the post-02:00 drift intact
Failure of the 38.2% fib near 0.6869 would expose the 0.6843 cpi low
London open volatility from compressed ATR of 2.9 pips could break the consolidation
07:02 UTC
Pullback within Asia rebound, compressing · RSI 49 · price 0.68736
Lower highs from 0.6885 Asia high, price below flat ema20/ema50.
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD from 0.6905 to a 0.6843 low. The Asia rebound peaked at 0.6885 and has since faded into a lower-high chain, with London opening near 0.6874, just under the flat ema20 (0.68752) and ema50. ATR at 2.9 pips shows compression, and the 0.68717 session low sits just above the post-CPI rebound fib's 38.2% (~0.6869), with the 0.68668 swing low below that.
Support: 0.68717, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.68752, 0.68791, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.68717 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.68668 swing low and the 0.68605 asia low
Close above the 0.68791 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.6885 asia high
Rejection at the ema20 near 0.6875 keeps the London open below the flat EMAs
Fedspeak Thursday from 14:00 UTC and Aussie consumer inflation expectations at 00:00 UTC Thursday could shift the read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, mid-Asian range.
The hot US CPI print drove AUD/USD from 0.6905 to 0.6843 in the NY session, and Asia recovered to a 0.6885 Asian high. Since then a string of lower highs, the latest at 0.6879, has pulled price back to 0.6874, under a flat ema20/ema50 at 0.6875. The swing low at 0.6872 sits near the 50% retracement of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) cooling to 44 from 74 and ATR(14) compressed to 2.9 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.68717, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.68753, 0.68791, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6872 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6867 pivot low and the 0.6861 asian low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.6875 and the 0.6879 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Reclaiming the 0.6885 asian high negates the fade from the Asia bounce
London open could lift ATR from its 2.9-pip compression and break the drift
Lower highs off 0.6885 Asia high, testing 0.6874 twin lows.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair from 0.6905 to 0.6843 in NY. The rebound then topped at the 0.6885 session high early in Asia, and a lower-high sequence has since pulled price under a flat ema20/ema50 near 0.6876, now pressing the 0.6874 twin lows. ATR has compressed to 3 pips and RSI(14) sits at 47.6, a quiet late-Asia drift ahead of London open.
Support: 0.68737, 0.6869, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.68756, 0.68791, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6874 twin lows exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.6869 and the 0.6867 swing area
M15 close above the 0.6879 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.6885 session high back in play
A break below the 0.6861 asian low erases the overnight higher-low structure
London open from a 3-pip ATR base could expand the session range out of the current consolidation
06:16 UTC
Post-CPI rebound stalling, flat into London · RSI 48 · price 0.6874
Lower highs from Asian high pressing a 0.6874 floor.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke 0.6900 and ran to the 0.6843 cpi low before a steady recovery that Asia extended to a 0.6885 Asian high. Lower highs since 02:00 UTC have compressed price onto a 0.6874 range floor, just under a flat ema20/ema50 pair, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR(14) down to 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6874, 0.6861, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68758, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6874 range floor exposes the 0.6861 asian low and the 38.2% fib of the cpi low–asian high leg near 0.6869
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6876 and a break of the lower-high line puts the 0.6885 asian high back in play, with 0.6900 psych above
London open expansion from a 3-pip ATR could resolve the compression
Late-Asia consolidation, lower highs over 0.6874 base.
AUD extended its rebound from the 0.6843 cpi low (hot US CPI) to a 0.6885 Asia session high, then faded into a tight consolidation of lower highs at 0.6881 and 0.6879 above a 0.6874 swing low. Price sits just under a flat ema20 (0.68759) and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.6 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.1 pips heading into the London open.
Support: 0.6874, 0.6867, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.68759, 0.6879, 0.6885
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6874 swing low exposes the 0.6867 asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI rebound
Close above the 0.6879 lower high and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.6885 session high
ATR(14) at 3.1 pips: London open expansion out of the consolidation could set the next leg
A loss of 0.6867 puts the 0.6843 cpi low back in focus
Lower highs from Asian high, tight 0.6874–0.6885 range.
AUD broke below 0.6900 on the hot US CPI print and bottomed at the 0.6843 cpi low, then recovered through Asia to a 0.6885 asian high, where RSI(14) peaked near 74 and supply capped the move. Late Asia has printed a lower high at 0.6879, and price sits just under the flat ema cluster at 0.6876 with ATR(14) compressed to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.68737, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6876, 0.68791, 0.6885
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema cluster and the 0.6879 lower high reopens the 0.6885 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6874 pullback low exposes the 0.6860 asia low and the 38.2–50% retracement zone
London open typically expands the compressed 3.1-pip ATR; a break of the 0.6843 cpi low would extend the post-CPI downtrend
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC and Fedspeak on 50bp risk can shift the read
05:31 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, stalling below Asia high · RSI 57 · price 0.68784
Tight consolidation 0.6874–0.6885 after Asia leg up, minor lower highs.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from 0.6905 to a 0.6843 low during NY hours. Asia extended the recovery to the 0.6885 Asia high, where RSI(14) peaked at 74 and has since cooled. Late in the Asia session price is coiling 0.6874–0.6885, just above the ema20 at 0.6876, with ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.68761, 0.68737, 0.6867
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6905
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6885 asia high opens the path to the 0.6905 cpi break level
Failure to hold the 0.6874 swing low and the ema20 exposes the asia base near 0.6867
London open in ~1.5h is the likely trigger for a break of the compressed 3-pip-ATR range
A deeper pullback toward the 50% of the recovery fib (~0.6864) would undercut the Asia base
Asia rally to 0.6885 now a tight consolidation with lower highs.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the 0.6843 NY low to the 0.6885 asia high, recovering about two-thirds of the hot US CPI drop. Price has since printed lower highs inside 0.6874–0.6885 and sits just above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.6876, with RSI cooled from 74 to 58 and ATR compressing to 3.1 pips late in Asia.
Support: 0.68759, 0.68737, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6874 swing low and the ema20 exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 0.6869 and the 0.6861 asia low
Close above the 0.6885 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.6900 round number into view
London open may expand the compressed 3.1-pip ATR; Fed-speak on December 50bp risk can reprice USD
Lower highs off the 0.6885 Asian high, compressing above flat EMAs.
AUDUSD climbed off the 0.6843 CPI low to an Asian high at 0.6885, AUD outperforming despite the hot US print. Late Asia has slipped into lower highs and a 0.6874 pullback low, with price just above the flattening EMAs near the 23.6% fib, RSI(14) cooled from 74 to 55.9 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68737, 0.68668, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68809, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.6874 pullback low exposes the 0.6867 asian low, near the 38.2% fib
Clearance of the 0.6881 lower high and 0.6885 asian high reopens the 0.6900 psych level
Failure back through 0.6867 puts the 0.6843 cpi low back in play
London open in ~3h is the likely trigger out of the compressed Asian range
Fed-speak on December 50bp odds could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.6885 Asian high, price testing a flat EMA cluster.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6905 pre-CPI high to the 0.6843 CPI low. The rebound ran to a 0.6885 Asian high before rejection, and mid-Asia price now sits just under the flat ema20/50 cluster near 0.6875 on a run of lower highs. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 49.7 and ATR has compressed to 3.2 pips. Price is holding roughly at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI-low rally, just above the 0.6867 Asian low.
Support: 0.68668, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68754, 0.6885, 0.69058
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6867 Asian low breaks the Asia range and exposes the 0.6860 rollover low near the 61.8% retrace
Reclaiming the ema20/50 cluster and the Asia lower-highs line, then a close above the 0.6885 Asian high, would resume the post-CPI recovery toward the 0.6905 pre-CPI high
London open is the likely trigger for the compressed 3.2-pip ATR to expand
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) and further Fed-speak on 50bp December odds could shift the read
04:31 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling below Asia high · RSI 52 · price 0.68757
Higher lows off 0.6843, drifting lower from the 0.6885 Asia high.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6905 pre-CPI area to a 0.6843 post-CPI low. The NY afternoon and Asia session then recovered to a 0.6885 Asia high, where RSI(14) peaked near 74. Mid-to-late Asia, price is drifting flat on the ema20 (0.68755) and ema50 near 0.6875, the 23.6% fib of that recovery, with RSI back to 52 and ATR compressing to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68755, 0.6867, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6905
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6885 Asia high extends the recovery and opens a path to 0.6905 pre-CPI
Failure to hold the 0.6867 Asia pb low (38.2% fib zone) breaks the higher-low chain off 0.6843
Loss of the 0.6843 post-CPI low resumes the CPI-driven leg lower
London open after ATR compression could expand the Asian range either way
Higher lows off the post-CPI low; Asia high capping, pullback testing flat EMAs.
The hot US CPI flush to 0.6843 has been retraced in steps. Asia pushed the recovery to a 0.6885 session high before stalling, and RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 56. Price is now holding just above the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.6875, near the 23.6% fib of the NY-Asia rally, with ATR compressing to 3.3 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.68755, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.68755 and then the 0.6867 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
A break of the 0.6885 asia high reopens the 0.6900 psych pivot into London open
Loss of the 0.6861 asian low (rollover low) exposes the 0.6843 post-CPI base
Ongoing Fedspeak on December 50bp risk could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD below 0.6900 to a 0.6843 cpi low. The Asia session rebound topped at the 0.6885 asian high and printed a lower high at 0.6881. Price now sits just above the 0.6875 ema20/ema50 cluster, near the 23.6% retracement of the rebound, with RSI(14) cooled to 55.5 from 74 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.4 pips late in Asia.
Support: 0.68753, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6881, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6875 ema20/ema50 cluster exposes the 0.6861 asian low and the 38.2% fib near 0.6869
Close above the 0.6881 lower high and the 0.6885 asian high opens the 0.6900 round number, where the pre-CPI breakdown sits
Loss of 0.6861 would put the 0.6843 cpi low back in focus
London open in ~3h is likely to set the session range out of the Asian range
Fedspeak on December 50bp risk could materially shift this read
Higher lows off post-CPI low, pullback from Asia high.
AUDUSD has climbed from the 0.6843 post-hot-US-CPI low to a 0.6885 Asia high. RSI(14) has since cooled from 74 to 54. Price is now retesting the 0.6875 ema20/50 confluence, the rising trendline and the 38.2% of the Asia leg; the digest reads this bounce as corrective.
Support: 0.68751, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6875 ema20/50 and rising trendline exposes the 0.6867 higher low
Failure to hold the 0.6860 asia low unwinds the Asia session advance
Close above the 0.6885 asia high opens 0.6900 psych
Fed-speak on 50bp December odds can reprice USD fast; AU inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC is the next scheduled AUD risk
Higher lows off the post-CPI low; pullback from Asia session high toward the EMAs.
The hot US CPI drove AUDUSD down from 0.6900 to 0.6843. The recovery from that low carried through the Asia session to a session high at 0.6885. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 57, and price is now drifting back toward the swing low at 0.6876 and the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.6875, with ATR(14) at a compressed 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.68764, 0.6875, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.69007
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6875 ema20/ema50 cluster and rising support exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.6869, then the asian low at 0.6861
A close back above the 0.6885 session high reopens the 0.6901 pre-cpi low and the 0.6900 pivot
Fed speaker headlines in the NY session could shift the read; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations are due Thu 00:00 UTC
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD to a 0.6843 CPI low in NY. Since then, higher lows along rising support have carried price to a 0.6885 Asia high. The 0.6876 pullback low held just above the converging ema20/ema50 near 0.6875, close to the 23.6% level of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 63.5.
Support: 0.68764, 0.68748, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6876 pullback low and the ema20/ema50 near 0.6875 breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.6885 Asia high opens the 0.69 pivot, the pre-CPI base
Failure to hold the rebound would re-expose the 0.6843 CPI low
Fed speaker headlines and US claims Thu 13:30 UTC could revive 50bp pricing and shift this read
Higher lows since NY low, pulling back from Asia high.
AUD broke below 0.6900 on the hot US CPI print and bottomed at the 0.6843 CPI low in the NY session. A higher-low grind since then carried the Asia session to 0.6885, the Asia high. Price is easing back to 0.6877, just above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.6874, and RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 58.7 with ATR(14) tight at 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.68742, 0.68647, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.6874 and the rising trendline would put the Asian low at 0.6865 and the 50% fib in play
Break above the 0.6885 Asia high opens the 0.6900 psych pivot
Failure back under the 0.6843 CPI low would end the higher-low recovery
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 UTC, could shift the read
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, three lower highs since the 0.6885 peak.
Asia session extended the rebound from the 0.6843 post-CPI low. Price climbed off the 0.6861 Asian low to a session high at 0.6885, and RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 62.9 on three lower highs. Price is back at the Asia trendline and the ema50 near 0.6875, with EMA20 still just under EMA50. The 0.6900 round number, lost on the hot US CPI print, sits overhead.
Support: 0.68747, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 and Asia trendline near 0.6875 opens the 0.6869–0.6864 38.2–50% fib of the post-CPI rebound, then the 0.6861 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.6885 session high puts the 0.6900 round number back in play
Loss of the 0.6843 post-cpi low would resume the CPI-driven downleg
Asian higher lows off 0.6861, pullback from 0.6885 session high.
Asia extended the rebound from the 0.6843 NY low after the hot US CPI selloff, printing a 0.6885 asian high before a rejection pulled price back toward the ema50 near 0.6874. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 65.7 and ATR(14) is a quiet 3.9 pips. The higher-low chain from the 0.6861 asian low, traced by the Asian trendline, is intact.
Support: 0.68745, 0.68668, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6867 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low trendline
Loss of the 0.6861 asian low reopens the 0.6843 NY low and puts the recovery fib in question
Close above the 0.6885 asian high exposes the 0.6900 round number, where the CPI bar topped
Fed-speak headlines can extend the post-CPI USD bid and cap any approach to 0.6900
02:16 UTC
Intraday rebound, RSI hot · RSI 72 · price 0.68813
Higher lows off the 0.6843 post-CPI low; Asia broke out of the overnight range.
Hot US core CPI drove AUDUSD to a 0.6843 NY low. The Asia session has since extended the rebound along a rising trendline, breaking the 0.6868 range top and stalling at a 0.6885 session high, just above the 0.6883 post-CPI spike high. RSI(14) at 71.5 is short-term hot; price is above both EMAs, with ema20 still just under a flattening ema50.
Support: 0.6878, 0.68743, 0.6868
Resistance: 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
Failure to clear the 0.6885 session high marks a rejection at the post-CPI spike high
M15 close back below the 0.6878 breakout lvl and ema50 at 0.6874 points price back to the 0.6868 range top
Acceptance above the 0.6900 round number would reclaim the pre-CPI handle
Break of the rising trendline from the 0.6843 low ends the higher-low sequence on the rebound fib
Fed-speak headlines into Thursday keep USD event risk elevated for this read
02:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, momentum hot · RSI 74 · price 0.68839
HH/HL chain off post-CPI low, pressing cpi bounce high.
The Asia session extended the grind off Tuesday's 0.6843 low, set after the hot US core CPI drove the 13:30 UTC slide. Price broke out of the 0.6865–0.6869 asia range and is now pressing the 0.6883 cpi bounce high and the 50% fib of the drop at 0.6887. RSI(14) at 74 is hot but normal for this HH/HL chain, with price above ema20 (0.6872) and ema50 (0.6874) and the rising trendline from the low near 0.6870.
Support: 0.6883, 0.6874, 0.6869
Resistance: 0.6887, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6900 round number clears the 50% fib and reclaims the pre-CPI base
Failure back below the 0.6874 ema50 and the rising trendline returns price to the asia range at 0.6869
Slipping back under the 0.6883 cpi bounce high turns the break into a rejection at the 50% fib
Fed-speak repricing toward a 50bp December hike remains the dominant driver of this read
Asian range break higher, higher lows since 0.6861.
Mid-Asia session, price broke above the 0.6861–0.6872 Asian range and is pressing the 0.6883 bounce high from the post-CPI selloff, which lines up with the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib. RSI(14) at 73.9 is overbought and ATR sits at 4 pips. Price holds above both EMAs while the hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk still frame the dollar side.
Support: 0.68736, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6883, 0.6900, 0.69065
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6883 bounce high opens the 0.6900 round number, then the 0.6906 pre-cpi high
A rejection at 0.6883 followed by a loss of the ema50 at 0.6874 would put price back inside the Asian range
A break of the Asia higher lows trendline weakens the recovery structure
Below the 0.6861 asian low, focus returns to the 0.6843 cpi low
Fed repricing toward a 50bp December hike remains the driver; no scheduled events in the next 8h
Higher lows off NY low, ema50 reclaimed, testing CPI-drop retrace.
Hot US CPI broke AUDUSD below 0.6900 in NY. Asia has extended a higher-low grind off the 0.6843 ny low, retaking the ema50 at 0.6873 and sitting at the 50% retrace of the CPI drop, with RSI 68.9 warm but not stretched. The 0.6883 post-cpi hi, which lines up with the 61.8% level, is the next cap.
Support: 0.68732, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68828, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6883 post-cpi hi clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 0.6900 pivot
Loss of the ema50 at 0.6873 and the rising support line puts the 0.6861 asia low back in play
Break below the 0.6843 ny low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Higher lows from 0.6843, Asia breaking late-NY range.
The hot US CPI drove AUDUSD to a 0.6843 low. It has since built higher lows, and early Asia has lifted out of the 0.6864–0.6869 late-NY range to a session high at 0.6876, the 50% retracement of the CPI drop. Price is just above a flattening ema50 at 0.6873 with RSI at 61.7, while ATR at 3.6 pips shows the move is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.6873, 0.68683, 0.68605
Resistance: 0.68758, 0.68828, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6883 cpi high, which is also the 61.8% fib, extends the recovery toward 0.6900 psych
Slipping back below the ema50 at 0.6873 and the ema20 at 0.6868 returns price to the late-NY range
Break of the Asia trendline and the 0.6860 asia low ends the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since NY low, Asia pressing session high.
AUD fell about 63 pips after the hot US CPI print, bottoming at the 0.6843 cpi low in NY hours, then built a steady chain of higher lows along the recovery line. Early Asia is pressing the session high just under the ema50 at 0.6873, holding above the ema20, and has retraced roughly 45% of the cpi drop on the fib. ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.68677, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6873, 0.68828, 0.6900
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6873 puts the 0.6883 cpi bounce high, near the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib, in play, with 0.6900 psych beyond
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6868, then the 0.6860 asian low, breaks the recovery line and exposes the 0.6843 cpi low
Australia consumer inflation expectations (Thu 00:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 0.6843 CPI low, now pressing the EMA50.
Hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk drove a 63-pip NY slide to the 0.6843 CPI low. Higher lows since then, at 0.6845 and the 0.6861 rollover low, have lifted price above the EMA20 into the EMA50 at 0.6873. That sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the CPI drop. Early Asia is testing the 0.6872 session high, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.68673, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68731, 0.6875, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the EMA50 and 50% fib near 0.6875 opens the post-CPI high at 0.6883
Break of the 0.6861 rollover low ends the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Rejection at the EMA50 keeps this a corrective bounce inside the CPI downtrend, with the 0.6843 CPI low below
Fed-speaker headlines on 50bp December pricing could quickly reverse the bounce
00:31 UTC
Recovering within post-CPI downtrend · RSI 56 · price 0.68696
Higher lows off 0.6843, pressing Asian high just under ema50.
Hot US CPI broke 0.6900 and printed a post-CPI low at 0.6843. Price has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and now sits in the 38.2–50% fib zone of the CPI drop. Early Asia is testing the Asian high at 0.6872, just below a falling ema50 at 0.6873. Price holds above ema20 with RSI(14) at 56 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.68669, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68716, 0.68732, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6873 ema50 and Asian high opens the post-CPI hi at 0.6883
Loss of ema20 and the 0.6861 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and the recovery structure
Failure below 0.6861 exposes the 0.6843 post-CPI low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift this read
Higher-low recovery from 0.68434 CPI low, pressing ema50.
Hot US CPI broke AUDUSD from 0.6906 to the 0.68434 cpi low. Price has since ground higher in a rising flag through late NY into the Asia open, holding above the ema20 at 0.68665 and now testing the ema50 at 0.68733, RSI(14) 59.1. ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips, and the fib 50% of the CPI drop at 0.6875 and the post-CPI high at 0.68828 sit just overhead.
Support: 0.68665, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68733, 0.6875, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and fib 50% at 0.6875 opens the post-CPI high at 0.68828
Break of the flag trendline and the 0.68605 swing low returns focus to the 0.68434 cpi low
Thin Asia session liquidity; Fed speakers Thu and AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift this read
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD from 0.6906 to a 0.6843 NY low, and the pair has since ground out higher lows back to the 38.2% fib near 0.6868, with ATR(14) compressing from 5.7 to 3.7 pips. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.6866 but sits below the ema50 at 0.6873, with early Asia session trade capped at the 0.6870 session high.
Support: 0.6866, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68699, 0.68733, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6873 and the 50% fib near 0.6875 opens the path to the 0.6883 cpi bounce high
Loss of the 0.6861 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.6843 NY low
Fed speaker headlines in thin Asia hours can extend the hot-CPI USD bid