Higher-low grind off 0.6843, pressing 0.6870 session high.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.6906 to a 0.6843 cpi low by mid-NY. Since then a higher-low recovery has lifted price back to the 0.6870 session high at the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. Price is above ema20 and below ema50, with ATR compressed to 3.8 pips into early Asia.
Support: 0.68657, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68698, 0.68735, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6870 session high and ema50 at 0.6874 opens the 50% fib near 0.6875 and the 0.6883 post-cpi hi
Break of the recovery line and the 0.6861 spike low turns focus back to the 0.6843 cpi low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson remarks (23:30 UTC): any endorsement of a 50bp December move could cap the recovery
23:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering in a slow climb · RSI 50 · price 0.6867
Higher lows off the NY low, now flat after NY close.
The hot US CPI print broke the London lows near 0.6902 and NY extended the drop to the ny low at 0.6843. Price has since carved higher lows along the recovery line back to 0.6867. It is stalling under the late high at 0.6869, near the 38.2% of the CPI drop, between the ema20 (0.6865) and a falling ema50 (0.6874). ATR has compressed from 6.2 to 3.8 pips and RSI sits flat at 50 after NY close.
Support: 0.68654, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68692, 0.68737, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speaking at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6874 opens the cpi bounce high at 0.6883
Break below the 0.6861 dip low and the recovery line exposes the 0.6843 ny low
Waller's 50bp remarks and the hot US CPI took AUDUSD from the 0.6920s Asian range to a 0.6843 NY low. The NY recovery has stalled in a 0.6861–0.6869 range, price pinned at the ema20 (0.6865) and below the ema50 at 0.6874, with ATR(14) compressed to 4 pips into the Asia session.
Support: 0.68652, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68692, 0.6874, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.6869 session high and the ema50 at 0.6874 extends the NY recovery toward the 0.6883 cpi bounce high
Failure to hold the 0.6861 rollover low reopens the 0.6843 ny low
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD about 60 pips to the 0.6843 cpi low. A higher-low recovery through NY hours has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.6868, with RSI(14) back at 50 from 31. Into the Asia session the pair is pinned in a 0.6860–0.6869 range: ATR has compressed to 4 pips, price holds above the ema20 at 0.6865 and sits below the ema50 at 0.6874.
Support: 0.68652, 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68692, 0.68743, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could break the late-session range
A close above the 0.6869 session high and the ema50 at 0.6874 (50% fib) opens the cpi bounce high at 0.6883
A break of the 0.6860 swing low and the rising support line reopens the 0.6843 cpi low
Tight consolidation 0.6861–0.6869 after higher lows off the post-CPI low.
Hot US CPI took AUDUSD from 0.6905 to a post-CPI low at 0.6843 during NY hours. The recovery from there has stalled into early Asia, with the 0.6869 range top capping three attempts and a rollover low at 0.6861. Price sits just under the EMA20 and below a falling EMA50 at 0.6875, RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68692, 0.68747, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.6869 range top opens the ema50 at 0.6875, then the 0.6883 bounce high
Break of the 0.6861 rollover low would turn the recovery into a lower-low sequence back toward the 0.6843 post-CPI low
Post-CPI recovery capped near 38.2% fib, tight late-session range.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD through 0.6900 to a 0.6843 cpi low. A steady higher-low grind through NY has retraced to the 38.2% fib near the 0.6869 late high. Price is pinned between the ema20 at 0.6865 and the ema50 at 0.6875, and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.68651, 0.68624, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68692, 0.68751, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the post-NY range
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6875 (50% fib) opens the path to the 0.6883 cpi bounce high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.6862 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6843 cpi low
Higher lows off post-CPI low, now flat range 0.6864–0.6868 at 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD out of the 0.6900 area to a 0.6843 post-CPI low. The NY-afternoon recovery stalled at the 0.6868 NY high, the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price is now flat on the ema20 and below the ema50 at 0.6875, which lines up with the 50% fib, while ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips from 7.
Support: 0.68648, 0.68589, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68683, 0.68754, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6868 ny high and ema50 at 0.6875 extends the recovery toward the 0.6883 post-cpi hi
Break below the 0.6859 swing low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.6843 post-cpi lo
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~74 min) could break the current compression
Post-CPI recovery capped at 61.8% fib, tight late-NY range.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-data 0.6900–0.6913 range, and the selling ran to a 0.6843 cpi low during NY hours. The recovery has stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.6868, with price sitting on the ema20 and below the ema50. RSI(14) is flat near 47 and ATR has compressed from 7 to 4 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.68648, 0.68624, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68683, 0.68758, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6868 61.8% fib and the ema50 at 0.6876 brings the 0.6883 cpi bounce high into view
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.6862 swing low exposes the 0.6843 cpi low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could break the late-NY compression
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.6906 to a 0.6843 NY low. A steady higher-low recovery has since stalled at the 0.6868 recovery cap, the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop, with RSI back to 47 and ATR compressed to 4.2 pips. Late NY, price holds just above the ema20 at 0.6865 and below the falling ema50 at 0.6876.
Support: 0.68647, 0.68624, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68683, 0.68762, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6868 recovery cap opens the ema50 at 0.6876 and the 0.6883 cpi bounce high
Loss of the 0.6862 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6843 ny low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~104 min) could materially shift this read
Higher-low grind from NY low, capped at 61.8% retracement.
Hot US CPI broke the 0.6900–0.6930 pre-CPI range lower. The pair ran into a 0.6843 NY low before a steady higher-low rebound into late NY. That grind is now stalling at the 61.8% fib of the 0.6883–0.6843 leg. RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 to 50 and ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.6865 but sits below the ema50 at 0.6877.
Support: 0.68647, 0.68624, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68683, 0.68767, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6868 (61.8% fib) puts the ema50 at 0.6877 and the 0.6883 post-CPI high in play
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.6862 swing low exposes the 0.6843 NY low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~2h, early Asia session) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6843 session low, capped at 38.2% retrace of the CPI leg.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC tore through the London lows and extended a 62-pip slide to the 0.6843 session low. The late-NY recovery has stalled at the 0.6868 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg. RSI(14) is back to 47 from sub-20, ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips, and price sits just above the ema20 at 0.6864 but below the ema50 at 0.6877.
Support: 0.68643, 0.68614, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68683, 0.6877, 0.68828
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6868 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.6877 opens the 0.6883 post-CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.6861 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6843 session low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NY low, capped at 38.2% of the CPI drop.
Waller's hawkish remarks and the hot US CPI beat broke AUDUSD out of the Asian range and down to a 0.6843 NY session low. The late-NY recovery line of higher lows has stalled at the 0.6868 recent high, the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop fib. Price sits just above ema20 with ema50 at 0.6878 overhead, RSI(14) back at 47.5 from sub-20 and ATR compressed to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68642, 0.6859, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.68775, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6868 recent high opens ema50 at 0.6878 and the 0.6883 bounce high (61.8% of the CPI drop fib)
Break of the recovery line and ema20 at 0.6864 exposes the 0.6859 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.6859 swing low brings the 0.6843 session low back into view
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read into the Asia session
Higher-low grind off the cpi low, capped at 0.6868 under ema50.
Waller's comments knocked AUDUSD off the 0.6930 London high, and the hot US CPI print extended the slide to a 0.6843 cpi low in the NY session. Late NY has ground back along a rising support line to a 0.6868 recovery hi. RSI(14) is back to 48 from sub-20, ATR has compressed to 4.8 pips, and price is pinned between ema20 at 0.6864 and ema50 at 0.6878.
Support: 0.68641, 0.68589, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.6878, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6868 recovery hi and ema50 at 0.6878 (near the 38.2% fib retrace of the London high to cpi low leg) exposes the 0.6883 post-cpi hi
Break of the rising support line and ema20 near 0.6864 puts the 0.6859 swing low and the 0.6843 cpi low back in focus
Fed's Paulson and Bowman speak at 23:30 UTC and could shift this read in thin late-session trade
HH/HL chain off the post-CPI low, capped below ema50.
The hot US CPI print in the first hour of NY broke AUD through 0.6900 to a 0.6843 session low. Since then a steady HH/HL grind along a rising trendline has lifted price to the recovery high at 0.6868, right at the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, above the ema20 and below the ema50. RSI(14) has climbed from sub-20 to 50 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5 pips, a flag-like recovery inside the drop.
Support: 0.68639, 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.68785, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6879 and the 0.6883 post-cpi high invalidates the flag read
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.6848 swing low puts the 0.6843 session low back in play
Hold above the ema20 at 0.6864 keeps the HH/HL chain intact
Fed's Bowman speaking now, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower low at 0.6843, higher-low chain retesting the broken floor.
The hot US CPI print broke the London range and extended to a 0.6843 session low during NY hours. The late-NY recovery has built higher lows and is now retesting the broken 0.6868 post-CPI floor, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, with price above the ema20 at 0.6864 but below the ema50 at 0.6879. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.6 to 46.6 and ATR has compressed to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.68635, 0.68589, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.68789, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, and the Fed-speak could materially shift this late-NY read
An M15 close above the 0.6868 prior floor and 38.2% fib opens the ema50 at 0.6879 and the 0.6883 post-CPI high
A break of the recovery line and the 0.6859 swing low turns the bounce back toward the 0.6843 session low
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective recovery under way · RSI 48 · price 0.68642
Higher lows off the NY session low, stalling at 61.8% retrace.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke AUDUSD out of its 0.6913–0.6930 pre-data range and extended to a 0.6843 session low during NY hours. Price has since built higher lows back above the ema20 and is now retesting the 0.6868 recovery hi, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the post-cpi hi to session low leg and just under the broken CPI-bar low. RSI(14) has climbed from 18.6 to 47.6 while ATR(14) compresses to 5.3 pips, and price remains below the ema50.
Support: 0.68634, 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.68795, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~30 min and could materially shift this read, with a second Bowman/Paulson slot at 23:30 UTC
M15 close above the 0.6868 recovery hi and the ema50 at 0.6880 opens the post-cpi hi at 0.6883
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6863 and the recovery line puts the 0.6848 swing low and 0.6843 session low back in play
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the post-CPI downtrend structure intact
The hot US CPI beat broke the Asian range and flushed AUDUSD to a 0.6843 NY low. A flag-like grind of higher lows since then has brought price back to the 50% retracement of the post-CPI leg near 0.6863, just above ema20. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.6 to 44.6 and ATR is compressing to 5.3 pips, with the CPI low at 0.6868, ema50 at 0.6880 and the 0.6883 lower high overhead.
Support: 0.68632, 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68682, 0.68801, 0.68828
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6868 CPI low clears the 61.8% fib and opens ema50 at 0.6880 and the 0.6883 lower high, weakening the flag read
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.6848 higher low exposes the 0.6843 NY low
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, in about 45 min, and could shift this read
Post-CPI lower low at 0.6843, higher lows since, retesting ema20.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke AUDUSD out of its overnight 0.6913–0.6930 range and extended the slide to a post-CPI low at 0.6843 during NY hours. Late NY has built higher lows off that base and is now pressing the ema20 at 0.6863, in line with the 50% fib of the 0.6883–0.6843 leg. RSI(14) has recovered to 43.5 from 18.6 and ATR(14) has eased to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.6859, 0.6848, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.6863, 0.6868, 0.6881
What it said to watch
A rejection at the ema20 and a slip back below the 38.2% fib at 0.6859 resumes the downtrend leg
A close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6868 opens the path toward the ema50 at 0.6881
Losing the 0.6848 higher low reopens the post-CPI low at 0.6843
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs; higher low forming above NY low.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke price out of the London range, and the slide extended to the NY low at 0.6843 after the 0.6883 post-CPI high capped the first bounce. Late NY has printed a higher low at 0.6848 and RSI(14) has recovered to 40 from sub-20, but price is stalling just under ema20 at 0.6863, which lines up with the 50% post-CPI fib. ATR is compressing to 5.7 pips.
Support: 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68631, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 0.6863 opens the path to the 0.6883 post-CPI high, with ema50 at 0.6882 alongside
Failure to hold the 0.6848 higher low and recovery line exposes the 0.6843 NY low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, about 74 minutes out, could materially shift this read if 50bp hike talk resurfaces
Lower highs after CPI breakdown; higher lows off 0.6843 NY low.
The hot US CPI print broke the 0.6900 area and extended the sell-off to a 0.6843 NY low. Since then late-NY trade has carved higher lows into the ema20 at 0.6863 and the fib 50% of the drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from below 20 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.9 pips.
Support: 0.68489, 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68634, 0.68682, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Rejection at the ema20 / fib 50% near 0.6863 keeps the bounce corrective; an M15 close above the 0.6868 cpi low opens the 0.6883 post-cpi high
Break of the 0.6849 higher low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.6843 ny low back in play, with the 0.6833 9m low below
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (in ~90 min) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower high at 0.6883, low at 0.6843, rising lows since.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked the pair out of its 0.6900s range. A lower high at the 0.6883 cpi high led to a 0.6843 session low during NY hours. After London close, price has built rising lows and is pressing the 38.2% fib, with ema20 at 0.6864 sitting near the 50% level, as RSI(14) recovers from sub-20 and ATR compresses to 6.2 pips.
Support: 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68638, 0.68705, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 0.6864 and the 50% fib opens the 0.6871 breakdown shelf; the 0.6883 cpi high caps the lower-high structure
Loss of the 0.6848 higher low breaks the rising lows; a close below the 0.6843 session low brings the digest's 0.6833 support into view
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp-hike talk could materially shift this read
Lower highs after CPI, small higher lows off 0.6843.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) broke 0.6900 and extended the London sell-off to a 0.6843 session low in NY. Price is now late in the NY session, carving higher lows toward 0.6856, still below both EMAs. RSI(14) has recovered to 33.7 from 14.7, with a shallower reading at the lower low, and the 50% fib of the post-CPI high-to-low leg sits near the ema20 at 0.6864.
Support: 0.68476, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68643, 0.68709, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6864 (50% fib) would extend the rebound toward the 0.6871 breakdown level
A break of the 0.6848 higher low, and then the 0.6843 session low, resumes the downtrend
Post-CPI high at 0.6883 caps the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs; tight base above 0.6843 with higher lows.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) broke the Asian range and the 0.6900 handle, extending the London selloff to a 0.68434 session low. Price has since compressed into a 12-pip base with higher lows below the range top at 0.68554. RSI(14) has recovered to 30.6 from sub-20 with a mild bullish divergence, and price still sits below the ema20 at 0.68651 as ATR eases.
Support: 0.68489, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68554, 0.68651, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.68554 range top opens a retest of the ema20 at 0.68651
Loss of the 0.68489 higher low and the 0.68434 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Lower-highs line from the London high through the 0.68828 cpi high caps any bounce
Fed's Bowman speech in ~2h could materially shift this read
Lower highs since CPI; late-NY consolidation above session low.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) cracked the 0.6900 area in the NY session. Price stalled at the 0.6883 cpi rebound high and slid to the 0.6843 session low. Late NY is now holding a tight 0.6844–0.6855 consolidation below the ema20 at 0.6866, with RSI(14) at 30.9 off a higher low against that lower price low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68547, 0.68663, 0.68828
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6855 range top and the ema20 at 0.6866 would ease the downtrend read
Break of the 0.6843 session low extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6883 cpi rebound high would invalidate the lower-high structure
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25bp vs 50bp December framing could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 13:30 GMT CPI range break.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6900–0.6930 Asian/London range at 13:30 GMT. NY hours then extended to a 0.6843 session low, with lower highs at the 0.6883 post-CPI high and the 0.6854 minor high. RSI(14) at 25.4 is oversold and price sits below both EMAs, with ema20 at 0.6868 capping the bounces.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6840
Resistance: 0.68541, 0.68676, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6843 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6840 round number
M15 close above the 0.6854 minor high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the down-leg read
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6868, also the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib, opens a path back to the 0.6883 post-CPI high
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 GMT (~2h45m) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 26 · price 0.6853
Lower highs since London open; post-CPI leg down to session low.
The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the Asian range and the 0.6901 pre-CPI low, extending the London lower-high chain to a 0.6843 session low. Price is basing just above it after London close with RSI(14) at 26.4, oversold, and a higher RSI low hints at bullish divergence. ATR has expanded to 7 pips, and both EMAs slope lower with price below them.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6869, 0.6883, 0.6901
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6843 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 0.6833 key support
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.6869, near the 61.8% of the post-CPI leg fib, would break the lower-high chain; the 0.6883 lower high is the next cap
Acceptance back above the 0.6901 pre-CPI low negates the CPI breakdown
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift the read on 50bp December framing
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 26 · price 0.6852
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI breakdown of 0.6900; small bounce off the NY low.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke 0.6900 after a London drift lower. NY then extended to a 0.6843 session low beneath a 0.6883 lower high, with the ema20 at 0.6871 overhead. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.9 and printed a bullish divergence against the post-CPI 14.7 low, while ATR has doubled to 7.2 pips.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6862, 0.6871, 0.6883
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.6862 breakdown shelf would put the ema20 at 0.6871 back in play
M15 close above the 0.6883 lower high, the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib, breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6843 session low exposes the 0.6833 9m low cited in the AUD digest
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: 50bp vs 25bp December framing could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 13:30 UTC CPI break, basing near the NY low.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove the CPI selloff out of the 0.6902–0.6930 London range. Supply capped the 0.6883 cpi bounce, and the NY session then cut through the 0.6862 breakdown level to a 0.6843 NY low, with price below both EMAs. RSI(14) is oversold at 21.1 but holding above its 14.7 flush low while price printed a lower low, a mild bullish divergence, and ATR(14) has doubled to 7.4 pips.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68621, 0.68733, 0.68828
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6843 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6833 key support
Reclaiming the 0.6862 breakdown level and then ema20 at 0.6873 would break the lower-high sequence
A close above the 0.6883 cpi bounce high invalidates the post-CPI downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: talk of a 50bp December hike could extend USD strength
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI range break.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6900–0.6930 Asian/London range lower, and NY has since stepped down through lower highs to a session low at 0.6843. RSI(14) at 19.7 is deeply oversold, ATR has doubled to 7.6 pips, and price sits below the ema20 at 0.6876.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68682, 0.68759, 0.68828
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6843 session low after London close exposes the 0.6833 multi-month low
A reclaim of the 0.6868 post-CPI low (38.2% of the CPI drop) and the 0.6876 ema20 would challenge the downtrend read
The 0.6883 lower high caps the post-CPI structure; a close above it ends the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could extend or fade the CPI move
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI; post-CPI range broken lower.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) took AUDUSD through 0.6900, extending a London move that had already broken below the Asian range. After an hour-long 0.6868–0.6883 post-CPI range, NY broke lower to a 0.6843 session low. RSI(14) at 18.6 is deeply oversold, ATR has roughly doubled to 7.8 pips and price sits well below the ema20 at 0.6879.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68682, 0.68789, 0.68828
What it said to watch
A hold below the 0.6843 session low leaves the 0.6833 multi-month low as the next reference
A recovery back above the 0.6868 cpi range low would signal the breakdown is stalling
An M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6879 and the 0.6883 cpi range high would neutralise the post-CPI lower-high sequence
RSI(14) sub-20 with no divergence yet; a higher RSI low on a new price low would flag fading momentum
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could extend or unwind the CPI move
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended after CPI · RSI 20 · price 0.68531
Lower highs and lower lows since Waller drop; Asian range and 0.6900 broken.
The hot US CPI print (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%) extended the selloff that began with Waller's speech. Price broke through the 0.6900 pre-cpi low and the Asian range, then capped at a lower high of 0.6883 near ema20 before setting a fresh NY session low at 0.6850. RSI(14) at 20.4 is oversold, ATR has doubled to 7.6 pips, and price sits below both EMAs after London close.
Support: 0.68505
Resistance: 0.68682, 0.68828, 0.69007
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6868 cpi low would mark the first reclaim since the release
Failure to hold the 0.6850 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the cited 0.6833 support
Push through the 0.6883 lower high and ema20 breaks the post-CPI sequence; 0.6900 pre-cpi low above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6930, post-CPI bounce capped under ema20.
The hot US CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%) broke AUD/USD out of its pre-CPI base near 0.6902. The NY bounce stalled at 0.6883, just under the ema20, and the lower-high trendline from the 0.6930 London high held, followed by a new session low at 0.6851. RSI(14) at 21.8 is oversold but holding above its post-CPI trough while price sets lower lows, and ATR has doubled to 7.7 pips.
Support: 0.68505, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6868, 0.68855, 0.6902
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6851 session low exposes the 0.6833 multi-month low
M15 close back above the 0.6868 post-CPI low eases the downside read; ema20 at 0.6886 sits just above
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.6883 bounce high (61.8% of the post-CPI bounce fib near 0.6870) reopens the 0.6902 pre-CPI base
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on the 25 vs 50bp December question could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; post-CPI low broken.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%) cracked the 0.6900 area and flushed AUDUSD to the 0.6868 CPI low. The bounce stalled at the 0.6883 bounce high, and the NY session has since printed a fresh session low near 0.6861, with price below both EMAs and ATR doubled to 7.3 pips. RSI(14) at 23.9 is oversold but holding above the 14.7 CPI reading on a lower price, a bullish divergence inside the CPI drop.
Support: 0.68607, 0.6856
Resistance: 0.68682, 0.68828, 0.68885
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6868 CPI low would mark the latest leg as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6856 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6833
Reclaim of the 0.6883 bounce high and ema20 at 0.6889 needed to break the lower-high sequence; 38.2% of the CPI drop sits near 0.6888
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; post-CPI range 0.6868–0.6883, price at the base.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the London grind lower that began after Waller's remarks, taking AUDUSD through 0.6900 to a 0.6868 cpi low. The NY-session bounce stalled at 0.6883, the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop. Price is back at the range base below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 27.6 (oversold) and ATR(14) expanded to 7.1 pips.
Support: 0.68682, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.68828, 0.68913, 0.69007
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6868 cpi low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6850 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6883 38.2% fib and the ema20 at 0.6891 would break the lower-high sequence
Acceptance back above the 0.6901 pre-cpi low would negate the CPI breakdown
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; broke below 0.6900, basing above 0.6868.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6900 handle in the first NY hour. That extended the post-Waller slide from the 0.6930 London high to a 0.6868 cpi low. Price is now holding a tight 0.6868–0.6879 band below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 25.4 oversold after a 14.7 trough and ATR(14) up to 6.5 pips from 3.7.
Support: 0.68682, 0.6856
Resistance: 0.68788, 0.68966, 0.69007
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6868 cpi low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6856 prior low.
A recovery above the 0.6879 bounce high and the ema20 at 0.6897 would mark the CPI leg as retracing.
Reclaiming the 0.6901 pre-cpi low and the 0.6900 handle invalidates the breakdown read.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from London high, 0.6900 floor broken, basing above 0.6868.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6900 floor at the NY open. That extended the lower highs running from the 0.6930 London high down to the 0.6868 cpi low. RSI(14) sits oversold at 25.2 after a 14.7 trough, and the rebound stalled at the 0.6879 bounce high, with price below the ema20 at 0.6899 and the ema50 at 0.6909.
Support: 0.68682, 0.6862
Resistance: 0.68786, 0.6899, 0.69085
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.6900 and the ema20 would mark the CPI break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6868 cpi low exposes the 0.6862 prior low
A rebound reaching the 38.2% fib of the London high to cpi low leg, near 0.6892, would test the lower highs line
ATR expanded to 6.5 pips from 3.7, so post-CPI swings are running wider than the session average
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on the 50bp December question could shift this read
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken lower on CPI.
Waller's 50bp talk knocked AUDUSD off the 0.6930 high at London open, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke the 0.6900 area into a 0.6868 CPI low, completing a 62-pip Waller-CPI leg. The first hour of NY is a shallow bounce capped at the 0.6879 bounce high. Price is below the ema20 (0.6902) and ema50 (0.6910), RSI(14) is oversold at 27 after a 14.7 trough, and ATR has expanded to 6.6 pips from 3.7.
Support: 0.68682, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.68788, 0.69007, 0.69099
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6901 pre-cpi low and ema20 cluster negates the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6868 CPI low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6850 round number
Bounce stalling at the 0.6879 bounce high or the 38.2% fib of the Waller-CPI leg near 0.6892 keeps lower highs intact
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~6h) on the 50bp question could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high at 0.6930; CPI bar broke the 0.6900 floor.
The hot US CPI print (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6900 floor and extended the post-Waller slide from the London high at 0.6930 to the cpi low at 0.6868. RSI(14) at 14.7 is deeply oversold and ATR has jumped from 3.7 to 6.4 pips. The first post-CPI NY bar is bouncing off that low, with the pre-cpi low near 0.6901 and the ema20 at 0.6904 overhead.
Support: 0.68682, 0.6862
Resistance: 0.69007, 0.6904, 0.69112
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.6868 exposes the prior lows near 0.6862/0.6856
A reclaim of the pre-cpi low at 0.6901 and the ema20 at 0.6904 would turn the CPI move into a false break
The ema50 at 0.6911 sits near the 61.8% of the london high fib (~0.6906) and marks the upper limit of any rebound
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the read if he echoes Waller's 50bp talk
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after hot US CPI · RSI 17 · price 0.68757
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken lower.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3% MoM, both above forecast) knocked AUDUSD 34 pips to a 0.6871 cpi low in early NY. That extends the lower-highs grind that began when Waller's 50bp talk broke the 0.6913 asian low after London open. RSI(14) at 17.2 is deeply stretched, and ATR has jumped to 6.1 pips from 3.7.
Support: 0.68707, 0.6862
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.69076, 0.69133
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6902 pre-cpi low would mark the CPI break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6871 cpi low opens the 0.6862 prior low cited in the digest
Reclaim of ema20 (0.6908) would break the lower-highs line
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could extend the hawkish repricing
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending on US CPI release · RSI 37 · price 0.68865
Lower highs since London high; 0.6900 broken on CPI bar.
AUD/USD dropped through the 0.6900 psych level on the still-forming US CPI release bar and printed a cpi low at 0.6884 as the USD caught a bid. This extends the slide from the 0.6930 london high, which began on Waller's hawkish remarks and broke below the Asian range, with lower highs since and price below both EMAs. As of the 13:15 UTC bar RSI was 36.8 after dipping to 27.8 at 13:00 UTC; the CPI bar is not yet in the indicator figures.
Support: 0.6884, 0.6862
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.69107, 0.69298
What it said to watch
A CPI-bar close back above the 0.6900 psych level would mark the break as a false break
A hold below the 0.6884 cpi low puts the 0.6862 prior lows in play
A reclaim of the ema20 at 0.69107 breaks the lower-highs sequence
The CPI bar's ~21-pip range dwarfs the 3.8-pip ATR, so expect wider intraday swings
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~7h and could shift post-CPI USD pricing
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into US CPI · RSI 28 · price 0.69011
Lower highs since London high, broke the morning range floor.
Waller's hawkish remarks at the London open knocked AUDUSD off the 0.6930 London high. A lower-highs sequence has since pushed price through the 0.6908 range floor to test the 0.6900 round number. RSI(14) at 27.8 is oversold, ATR(14) is compressed at 3.7 pips, and price sits below both the ema20 (0.6911) and ema50 (0.6915) going into CPI.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68916
Resistance: 0.6908, 0.69112, 0.69298
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~14 min) could materially shift this read, and a 3.7-pip ATR understates the likely post-release range
An M15 close below the 0.6900 round number exposes Monday's prior low at 0.6892
Recovery above the 0.6908 range floor and the ema20 at 0.6911 would break the lower-highs sequence
A move back toward the 0.6930 London high would unwind the post-Waller leg
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, intraday lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 0.69045
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows into NY.
London reversed off the 0.6930 london high as Waller's hawkish warning lifted USD. Price broke the 0.6913 Asian range low, then the 0.6908–0.6913 shelf gave way into the NY open, printing a 0.6903 session low just above the 0.6900 round number. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6912) and ema50 (0.6915), with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR compressed to 3.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.69035, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69121, 0.69298
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (29 min) could materially shift this read; ATR at 3.7 pips is compressed relative to typical post-release ranges
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above ema20 at 0.6912 and the lower-highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read
Recovery of the 0.6930 london high would erase the post-Waller drop
Lower highs and lower lows since the London rejection at 0.6930; Asian range low broken.
Early London pushed to a london high at 0.6930 and was rejected, matching Monday's NY peak. The London drop around Waller's remarks then broke the Asian low at 0.6913, and price has since stepped down in lower highs to a session low at 0.6904, below both EMAs, with the ema20 near 0.6913. RSI(14) at 32.7 is soft but not oversold, and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips into US CPI, with the 0.6900 round number just below.
Support: 0.69045, 0.6900, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.69133, 0.69156, 0.69298
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~44 min) and ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could reprice this range well beyond the 3.7-pip ATR
M15 close back above the 0.6913 asian low (ema20 near 0.6913) breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number exposes the prior low at 0.6890
RSI(14) dropping below 30 marks the slide as oversold
A rebound stalling at the ema50 (0.6916) or the 38.2–50% retrace of the London drop keeps the downtrend read intact
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 0.69057
Failed push above Asian high, Asian low broken, grinding at session low.
London's push above the 0.6913–0.6927 Asian range stalled at the london high of 0.6930. The 09:00 GMT bar, alongside Waller's hawkish remarks, then broke the Asian low. Price has printed lower highs below a falling ema20 (0.6914) and ema50 (0.6916) and now sits at the session low of 0.6906 into US CPI. RSI is 33 and ATR is 3.7 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of the release.
Support: 0.69057, 0.6900, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.69136, 0.6916, 0.69298
What it said to watch
US Oct CPI at 13:30 GMT (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average lands at 13:15 GMT
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number exposes the prior low at 0.6890
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6914 and the lower-highs line would break the intraday downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.6916 puts the london high at 0.6930 back in view
Lower highs below EMAs after London broke the Asian range low; tight 5-pip coil above London low.
Early London failed at 0.6930, forming a double top with yesterday's NY high. The sharp drop around Waller's speech then broke the Asian low at 0.6913. Price has since coiled just above the 0.6908 London low, below both EMAs, with RSI 39.1 and ATR easing from 4.9 to 3.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.69079, 0.6900, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.69133, 0.69163, 0.69305
What it said to watch
US Oct CPI at 13:30 UTC (~74 min) and the ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.6908 London low exposes the 0.6900 round number, then the 0.6890 prior low
M15 close back above the 0.6913 Asian low and the ema50 at 0.6916 reopens the London drop fib 61.8% near 0.6921
A move through the 0.6930 double top invalidates the lower-high sequence
Asian range broken lower, lower highs above session low.
London open was rejected just under the prior high at 0.6930. The 08:30 GMT bar, coinciding with Waller's speech, then broke through the Asian low at 0.6913, and price has since compressed in a tight box above the 0.6908 session low with lower highs. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 39.3 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.7 pips as the pair waits on US CPI.
Support: 0.69079, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69133, 0.69147, 0.69305
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is due in about 88 min and could override this compression; ADP 4-week average at 13:15 GMT
Failure to hold the 0.6908 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number, the pivot flagged in the macro read
An M15 close back above the Asian low at 0.6913 and the ema20 at 0.6915 would neutralise the London breakdown and the lower highs; the prior high at 0.6930 caps above that
Lower highs after 0.6930 rejection, tight base above session low.
London rejected 0.6930 a second time after Monday NY's high, forming a double top. The London drop came around Waller's speech and broke the Asian low at 0.6913. Price is now compressing just above the 0.6908 session low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) easing to 3.9 pips into US CPI.
Support: 0.69079, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69133, 0.69151, 0.69298
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.6908 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery above the 0.6913 Asian low and the ema20 at 0.6915 would neutralise the London drop; the 0.6930 double top caps above
Lower highs since the 0.6930 London high, basing above 0.6908.
London rejected the 0.6930 session high around Waller's speech, broke under the Asian range and set a 0.6908 session low. Price is holding a tight shelf below the ema20 (0.6916), which has crossed under the ema50 (0.6918). RSI(14) has recovered to 41 from 35 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6916, 0.69175, 0.69301
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6918 breaks the London lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6908 session low exposes the 0.6900 pivot
A recovery through 0.6916 ema20 puts the 0.6930 session high and the 50% of the London drop fib back in view
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since the 0.6930 rejection.
London rejected 0.6930 a second time after Monday's NY high, a double top. The London drop at 09:00 UTC broke the Asian range low near the ema20 and printed a 0.6908 session low. Price is holding just above that low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR at 5.9 pips, about 2h before US CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69164, 0.69178, 0.6930
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6918 ema50 returns price to the Asian range and weakens the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6908 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number, the pivot flagged in the digest
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.6930 double top caps the session range
Retrace of the London drop stalling below the 0.6919 fib 50% keeps the lower-high chain intact
London broke below Asian range; lower highs under the EMAs.
London session rejected the 0.6930 session high and broke below the Asian range low near 0.6916 on the sharp 09:00 GMT drop, timed with Waller's remarks. Price sits under the ema20 (0.6917) and ema50 (0.6918), with RSI(14) at 39 and shallow bounces off the 0.6908 session low; ATR is easing back to 6.2 pips into US CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69169, 0.6918, 0.69301
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 GMT, with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema50 at 0.6918 negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 0.6908 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Retracement toward the 50% fib of the session high-to-low drop near 0.6919 tests the lower-high chain
10:47 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 0.69097
Asian range broken lower, lower-low chain.
London rejected the 0.6930 session high and broke the 0.6910 Asian low on the 09:00 GMT bar, which coincided with Waller's speech slot. Price has since printed lower lows to the 0.6908 session low, sitting below both EMAs after an ema20/ema50 cross, with RSI(14) at 35.8 and ATR expanding to 6.5 pips. 0.6900 psych is the next pivot into US CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.6910, 0.69175, 0.69301
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6910 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6908 session low exposes 0.6900 psych and the 0.6890 prior low
Recovery above ema20 at 0.69175 and the 50% of the London drop fib near 0.6919 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (~2h45m) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since London open.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6910 on the 09:00 UTC bar that coincided with Waller's speech. That leg printed a session low at 0.6908. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6918) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR widening from 4.5 to 6.7 pips, while a lower high at 0.6915 caps bounces. Most of Monday's oil-driven rally to the 0.6930 range top has been given back, leaving the 0.6900 round number as the nearest reference before US CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.6915, 0.69183, 0.6930
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.6915 lower high and ema20 at 0.6918 negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number exposes Monday's prior low at 0.6890
Reclaim of the 0.6930 range top would put the Asian range back in play
London rejected the 0.6930 prior high, broke the Asian range low; lower lows into session low.
London retested Monday's 0.6930 prior high and was rejected. The 09:00 UTC bar, timed with Waller's scheduled remarks, dropped ~19 pips through the Asian low at 0.6916. Price is now pressing the session low near 0.6909, below a flattening-to-falling ema20 and ema50 cluster at 0.6919, with RSI(14) at 34.8 and ATR up to 7 pips from 4.4.
Support: 0.69088, 0.6900, 0.68958
Resistance: 0.69162, 0.69192, 0.69301
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6909 session low exposes the 0.6900 psych pivot, then Monday's 0.6896 prior low
M15 close back above the 0.6916 asian low and the ema20 at 0.6919 neutralises the range-break read
London high at 0.6930 caps the London drop fib; a reclaim of its 50% (~0.6920) shifts the structure back to range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 UTC can materially reset this read
London rejection broke below the Asian range, now basing at 0.6910.
London was rejected at the 0.6930 session high at 09:00 GMT. The 20-pip drop to the 0.6910 session low dipped under the Asian range and gave back nearly all of Monday's late NY rally on the fib. Price is now holding just above 0.6910 and below both EMAs (ema20 0.6920). RSI(14) is 38 and ATR(14) has expanded to 7.1 pips from 4.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69202, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6910 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number, a full retrace of the Monday rally fib
Recovery above the 0.6920 ema20/ema50 cluster puts price back inside the Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average at 13:15 GMT
09:46 UTC
Range, softening below EMAs · RSI 40 · price 0.6910
0.6910–0.6930 Asian range intact; London high rejected.
London stalled at the 0.6930 session high, the Asian range top, before the 09:00 UTC bar around Waller's speech dropped to 0.6910, the Asian low. Bounces since have stalled near the 50% retrace of the Waller drop, just under the ema20 at 0.6921. RSI(14) sits at 40.1 and ATR has expanded to 7.3 pips as the pair holds the lower half of the range into US CPI.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6921, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6910 asian low exposes the 0.6900 pivot flagged into CPI
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6921 puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.6930 session high above
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
ATR expanding from 4.1 to 7.3 pips signals wider swings than the Asia session
Asian range broken to the downside after London rejection at 0.6930.
London faded off the 0.6930 range top, and the 09:00 UTC bar around Waller's remarks dropped to a 0.6910 session low. That broke the 0.6916 Asian range floor and pushed price below the ema20 and ema50 near 0.6920. Price now sits near the 50% fib of Monday's 0.6890–0.6931 rally, with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) expanding to 7.1 pips.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69198, 0.69217, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6910 session low exposes the 0.6900 psych pivot
Recovery above the ema50/ema20 band at 0.6920–0.6922 puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.6930 range top negates the rejection read
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline m/m f/c 0.3%, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read
0.6916–0.6930 overnight range, London flush to 0.6910.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks drove a London-session flush from the 0.6930 session high to a 0.6910 spike low, on the 61.8% retrace of Monday's oil-led rally, before a partial recovery. Price now sits below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 46.8 and ATR(14) up to 6.9 pips from 4.2 into US CPI.
Support: 0.69098, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69201, 0.69225, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 (0.6920) and ema20 (0.6923) restores the 0.6916–0.6930 range read
Failure to hold the 0.6910 spike low exposes the 0.6900 pivot
Repeated rejection at the 0.6930 session high keeps the range top intact
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Sideways after Monday's rally, testing range floor · RSI 61 · price 0.6916
0.6917–0.6930 range since Monday's NY close; London rejected again at range top.
AUDUSD has held a 0.6917–0.6930 range since Monday's oil- and risk-led rally off 0.6890. London was rejected again at the range top, and the forming 09:00 UTC bar has dropped to the range floor as Waller speaks. That puts price at the 38.2% level of the Monday rally fib, with ATR(14) up to 6 pips from about 4.
Support: 0.6917, 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6917 range floor exposes the 0.6910 asia low and the 0.6900 psych pivot, near the 50–61.8% Monday rally fib
Reclaim of the 0.6930 range top would be a fourth test of the cap since Monday NY
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% m/m, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller remarks at 09:00 UTC are already moving price
Overnight range below 0.6930, higher low in London.
Capped below Monday's late-NY high at 0.6930 since the oil- and risk-led rally. The Asian low at 0.6914 held, and early London printed a higher low at 0.6917 before pressing the top of the Asian range near 0.6926. Price sits above the ema20 at 0.6922 and the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR expanding to 6.1 pips into Waller.
Support: 0.69222, 0.6917, 0.6914
Resistance: 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6930 monday high breaks the overnight range
Loss of the 0.6917 london low and the higher lows line exposes the 0.6914 asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.6914–0.6926, London so far contained inside it.
AUDUSD is holding the 0.6914–0.6926 Asian range after Monday's oil-led rally topped at the 0.6931 monday high. Early London dipped to a 0.6917 london low and recovered back above the ema20 at 0.6922, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.7. ATR(14) has widened to 5.8 pips as desks position into US CPI.
Support: 0.69218, 0.69172, 0.69146
Resistance: 0.69263, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6926 asia high puts the 0.6931 monday high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6917 london low exposes the 0.6914 asia low, near the 38.2% of the Monday rally fib
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the range early
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
08:16 UTC
Sideways after Monday rally, slipping into early London · RSI 42 · price 0.69181
Tight Asian range 0.6916–0.6926 below Monday high; testing range floor.
AUDUSD held a 10-pip Asian range below the 0.6931 Monday high after the USD-led Monday rally. Early London has slipped below both EMAs, putting price at the 0.6916 asia low with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR near 6 pips as desks sit out ahead of CPI.
Support: 0.69162, 0.69139, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69194, 0.69261, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6916 asia low opens the 0.6914 late-ny low and the 38.2% Monday rally fib near 0.6915
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.6919 and the asia high at 0.6926 restores the range-top test
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range
US CPI 13:30 UTC is the main risk; 0.6900 psych and the 0.6931 Monday high frame the reaction
08:02 UTC
Sideways after Monday NY rally · RSI 46 · price 0.69203
Tight range 0.6916–0.6926 since NY close.
The Monday NY leg on USD weakness and lower oil topped at the 0.6931 monday high. Asia and early London have since held a 0.6916–0.6926 range inside the 50–61.8% fib of that leg. Price sits between the ema20 (0.6922) and ema50 (0.6919), with RSI 45.5 neutral and ATR at 5.9 pips, up from 4.0.
Support: 0.69194, 0.69178, 0.69162
Resistance: 0.69222, 0.69263, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6916 asian low breaks the range and the 61.8% fib
Close above the 0.6926 session high reopens the 0.6931 monday high
Repeated tests of the 0.6918 london low with no follow-through keep the range read intact
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC, in under 1h, could shift USD pricing ahead of CPI
US Oct CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main range-break risk for the session
0.6910–0.6930 Asian range, rising lows into London open.
Monday's USD-weakness rally topped at the 0.6931 monday high during NY hours. Price has since held a 0.6910–0.6930 Asian range, printing rising lows off the 0.6910 asian low. Early London bounced from a 0.6918 swing low to a 0.6925 session high, holding just above the ema20 at 0.6922, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.5 and ATR(14) up to 5.5 pips from 4.0.
Support: 0.69224, 0.69183, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 monday high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Break of the 0.6925 session high extends the London bounce toward range top
Loss of the 0.6918 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 0.6910 asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~73 min) could jolt the range before London settles
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the major risk; a clear deviation could break this range either way
Asian range 0.6910–0.6930 intact into London open.
Monday's USD-weakness rally from 0.6880 peaked at the 0.6931 Monday high late in the NY session. Asia has held a 0.6910–0.6930 range since, with the asian low sitting near the 38.2% retrace of the Monday rally after the soft NAB print. London open bounced from a 0.6918 swing low back above the ema20 (0.69223). RSI is neutral at 54.5 and ATR is 5.6 pips, with rising lows from the Asian session still intact.
Support: 0.69223, 0.69183, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 Monday high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 0.6918 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6910 asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could push price out of the range early in London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this range read; ATR expansion likely on the print
07:16 UTC
Flat after Monday rally, early London · RSI 48 · price 0.69209
Asian range 0.6910–0.6926 below Monday high.
The Monday rally on broad USD weakness topped at the 0.6931 monday high. Asia has since held a 0.6910–0.6926 range, and the 0.6916 swing low printed a higher low above the asian low, which sits near the 38.2% retrace of that rally. Early London trades at 0.6921, between the ema20 at 0.6922 and the ema50 at 0.6919, with RSI(14) at 47.8 and ATR(14) back up to 5.7 pips from 4.0.
Support: 0.69191, 0.69162, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69221, 0.6926, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the 0.6926 asian high reopens the 0.6931 monday high
Loss of the ema50 and the 0.6916 swing low puts the 0.6910 asian low and the 38.2% retrace of the Monday rally in play
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range early
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 0.6914–0.6930 range since Monday's NY high, price mid-range.
AUDUSD has held a tight 0.6914–0.6930 range through Asia after the USD-weakness Monday rally topped at the 0.6931 prior high. It has retraced barely a quarter of that move. Into the London open price is back under the ema20 at 0.6922 after fading from the 0.6926 swing high, with RSI(14) cooling from 60 to 46, the ema50 at 0.6919 just below and ATR(14) expanding to 5.9 pips.
Support: 0.6919, 0.6914
Resistance: 0.69223, 0.6926, 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 prior high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.6914 range low opens a deeper retracement of the Monday rally
A hold below the 0.6926 swing high keeps price capped inside the range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Sideways after Monday's rally, holding near highs · RSI 54 · price 0.69234
Tight Asian range 0.6916–0.6926 below Monday's 0.6931 high.
Monday's late-NY leg on broad USD weakness and the oil slide topped at the 0.6931 prior high. Asia has since held a tight range between the 0.6916 asian low and the 0.6926 asian high, with price just above the ema20 at 0.69225 and RSI(14) neutral at 54. ATR(14) has expanded from 4.0 to 5.9 pips into the London open, and price is holding above the 23.6% retracement of the monday rally.
Support: 0.69225, 0.69162, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69263, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6926 asian high opens a retest of the 0.6931 prior high
Break below the 0.6916 asian low exposes the 0.6910 swing low and the 38.2% retracement of the monday rally near 0.6911
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD is holding Monday's USD-led rally (oil slide, Iran headlines) in a tight Asian range under the 0.6931 monday high. The asian low at 0.6910 held near the 38.2% of the 0.6880–0.6931 rally, and the 0.6916 higher low keeps price above the ema20 (0.69224), with ATR(14) expanding to 5.6 pips from 4.0 into the London open.
Support: 0.69224, 0.69162, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69263, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the monday high at 0.6931 breaks the overnight consolidation lid; asia high 0.6926 is first resistance
Hold above the ema20 at 0.69224 keeps the higher-low sequence from the asian low intact
Loss of the 0.6916 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the asian low at 0.6910
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, Asia retesting highs · RSI 60 · price 0.69263
Higher lows through Asia under NY high.
Monday's NY rally on a softer USD and the oil slide topped at the 0.6931 ny high. Asia pulled back to a 0.6916 asia low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, and has since put in higher lows above the ema20 (0.6922) and ema50 (0.6919). Price is pressing the 0.6926 asia high late in Asia. RSI(14) is at 59.9, and ATR(14) has picked up from 4.0 to 5.3 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.69221, 0.69185, 0.69162
Resistance: 0.69263, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 ny high extends the uptrend structure
Rejection at the 0.6926 asia high and a slip back below the ema20 and ema50 returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.6916 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below NY high · RSI 60 · price 0.69258
Asian higher lows under Monday NY high.
AUD/USD is holding a tight Asian range below Monday's NY high at 0.6931, set after the soft-USD, falling-oil rally. The Asian low at 0.6910 held near the 38.2% retrace of the rally fib, and the 0.6916 higher low has price back above the ema20 (0.6922), with RSI(14) at 59.5 and ATR(14) edging up to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.69217, 0.69162, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 ny high breaks the Asian range top and extends the rally structure
Loss of the 0.6916 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 0.6910 asian low and 38.2% fib back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Sideways after NY-session rally · RSI 52 · price 0.69235
Tight Asian range capped below Monday's NY high.
Monday's USD-weakness rally ran from the 0.6880 London low to a 0.6931 NY high. Asia has held a 0.6916–0.6926 range through the soft NAB print, and the pullback stays above the 38.2% fib at 0.6911. Price sits in the upper half of the Asian range ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.6916, 0.6911, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6926, 0.6931
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6926 asian high at London open opens a retest of the 0.6931 ny high
Loss of the 0.6916 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6911, then the 0.6900 psych level
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6914–0.6924 holding above the 23.6% fib of Monday's rally; price pressing the Asian high late in Asia.
Monday's rally from 0.6880 to the 0.6931 Monday high came on broad USD weakness as oil fell on US-Iran deal hopes. Asia held a tight 0.6914–0.6924 range above the fib 23.6 level despite the smaller China trade surplus and softer NAB data. Price is now testing the Asian high ahead of London open, RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 0.6924, 0.6919, 0.6914
Resistance: 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 Monday high resumes the higher-high sequence
Slip back under the asia high at 0.6924 keeps the Asian range intact; a break of the 0.6914 asia low exposes 0.6900
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could reprice December hike odds before CPI
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below NY high · RSI 58 · price 0.69234
Tight Asian range under 0.6931 NY high, testing range top.
Monday's rally from 0.6880 ran to a 0.6931 NY high on broad USD weakness as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes. Asia has held a tight 0.6916–0.6924 range after the softer China trade and NAB data, and price is now pressing the Asian high with the Asian low above the 38.2% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.69162, 0.69112, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69244, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 Asian high opens a retest of the 0.6931 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.6916 Asian low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.6911, then the 0.6900 round number
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift the read before London is established
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst and can override the current range structure
05:02 UTC
Uptrend from Monday low, pausing in Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.69229
Tight Asian range 0.6916–0.6924 below Monday high.
Broad USD weakness drove Monday's rally from 0.6880 to a 0.6931 Monday high during NY hours. Asia has compressed into a 0.6916–0.6924 range despite softer China trade and NAB data, and price is now pressing the asia high about 2h before the London open. The asia low held at 0.6916, with the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally near 0.6911 underneath.
Support: 0.69162, 0.6911
Resistance: 0.69244, 0.69308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 asia high reopens the 0.6931 monday high
Failure to hold the 0.6916 asia low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.6911
Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC; any pushback on December hike pricing could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main catalyst and could materially shift the range
Tight Asian range below Monday's NY session high, above 23.6% retracement.
The oil-driven USD selloff carried the Monday rally from the 0.6880 London low to a 0.6931 session high late in NY hours. Asia has since compressed into a ~10-pip band between the 0.6914 asian low and 0.6924 asian high, holding just above the 23.6% fib near 0.6919, with RSI(14) at 47 and EMAs flat underneath price ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.6914, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6914 asian low exposes the 0.6910 prior high (London range top), near the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally
M15 close above the 0.6924 asian high reopens the 0.6931 session high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.6916–0.6924 below Monday high, lower highs.
Monday's oil-driven USD slide lifted AUD from 0.6880 to a 0.6930 Monday high late in NY hours. Asia has faded into a tight range between the 0.6916 Asian low and the 0.6924 Asian high, with Asia lower highs capping, and price is sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the Monday rally. RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips point to compression ahead of US CPI, with the 38.2% fib at 0.6911 aligned with the late-NY breakout base.
Support: 0.6916, 0.6911
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6916 Asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6911
M15 close above the 0.6924 Asian high and the Asia lower highs line reopens the 0.6930 Monday high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4.5h) could shift the read ahead of London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9h) is the main catalyst for a break of the Asian range
Asian range 0.6915–0.6924 after Monday's rally; lower highs off 0.6931.
Monday's oil-driven USD selloff lifted AUDUSD from the 0.6880 London low to a 0.6931 Monday high in late NY. Mid-Asia, price has compressed into a 0.6915–0.6924 range and is now pressing the Asian low with the EMA50 near 0.6917, just under the 23.6% retracement of Monday's rally. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6911, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6915 Asian low opens the 0.6911 NY base, which sits on the 38.2% fib of Monday's rally
Failure to hold the 0.6911 NY base exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery above the 0.6924 Asian high puts the 0.6931 Monday high back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion
Lower highs below 0.6931, Asian range 0.6910–0.6924.
Monday's oil-driven USD slide carried the pair from 0.6880 to a 0.6931 monday high late in the NY session. Asia has since faded it into a tight 0.6910–0.6924 band of lower highs. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50, and the asian low at 0.6911 lines up with the 38.2% of the monday rally fib.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6905, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.6911 asian low exposes the fib 50% at 0.6905, then the 0.6900 round number
M15 close above the 0.6924 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.6931 monday high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Monday uptrend stalled, flat in Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.69178
Tight Asia range 0.6918–0.6924 beneath the 0.6931 Monday high.
A broad USD slide on oil and US-Iran deal hopes lifted AUDUSD from 0.6880 to a 0.6931 Monday high in late NY. Asia has compressed into a 0.6918–0.6924 range under that high. The 0.6910 Asian low held on the early spike, and price sits on the asia floor near the 23.6% of the Monday rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.6918, 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6910 Asian low exposes the 0.6900 round number and the 38.2% of the Monday rally fib near 0.6911
Reclaiming the 0.6924 range top reopens the 0.6931 Monday high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.6918–0.6924 beneath the 0.6931 NY high.
Monday's softer-USD, oil-driven rally carried price from the 0.6880 London low to a 0.6931 NY high late in the session. Asia has compressed in a 0.6918–0.6924 range, pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) at 50. The soft NAB-time dip to 0.6910 near the 38.2% fib was a false break that was reclaimed within the hour.
Support: 0.6918, 0.6911, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.6924 Asian high reopens the 0.6931 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.6918 Asian low exposes the 0.6911 38.2% fib, then the 0.6900 round number
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC during London hours could break the Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend paused, Asia consolidating · RSI 48 · price 0.69203
Higher lows from London low; tight 0.6910–0.6930 Asian range.
A softer USD and the oil slump carried AUD from Monday's London low at 0.6880 in higher lows to a 0.6931 NY high. Asia has held a 0.6910–0.6930 range with a rejection at 0.6930 and repeated stalls at the 0.6924 asian cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 48, and the rising trendline from the London low sits at 0.6914, just above the asian low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.6914, 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69235, 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6910 asian low breaks the trendline and opens the 0.6900 round number
Close above the 0.6931 ny high ends the Asian range and extends the higher-high chain
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend paused, flat in Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.69205
Late-NY breakout to 0.6931, now Asia consolidation 0.6910–0.6931.
The softer USD and the oil slump lifted AUD out of the 0.6900 round number during NY hours, peaking at the 0.6931 NY high. Asia has held a tight range below that high. The 0.6910 Asian low sits on the 50% fib of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price at EMA20.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6910 asian low breaks the 50% fib and exposes the 0.6900 round number
Close above the 0.6931 ny high resumes the breakout toward 0.7000 psych
Waller at 09:00 UTC ahead of London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.6880 intact; tight Asian range below the Monday high.
Monday's rally from the 0.6880 London low to the 0.6931 Monday high, a USD- and oil-driven bounce per the digest, has eased about 10 pips. Mid-Asia, price is compressing between the 0.6915 rollover low and the 0.6924 Asia high, sitting near the 23.6% fib of the rally with RSI(14) around 45. Soft NAB surveys this morning drew no follow-through.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6915 rollover low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6910 breakout lvl near the 38.2% fib; below that, the 0.6900 round number
M15 close above the 0.6924 Asia high reopens the 0.6931 Monday high
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6910–0.6930 inside Monday's 0.6880–0.6931 rally.
Monday's softer-USD, oil-led rebound lifted the pair from the 0.6880 London low to a 0.6931 Monday high late in NY hours. Asia is holding a 0.6910–0.6930 range. The asian low held near the 38.2% fib of that leg, and price is now mid-range at 0.6923 with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.6918, 0.6910, 0.6880
Resistance: 0.6931
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 monday high breaks the Asian range top and resumes the HH chain
Loss of the 0.6918 swing low, then the 0.6910 asian low, opens the 50% fib near 0.6905 and the 0.6880 london low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC ahead of London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.6921
Higher lows intact; Asian range 0.6910–0.6924 below Monday high.
Monday's late-NY break out of the 0.6890–0.6910 range ran to a 0.6931 Monday high as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes and softened the USD. Asia retraced to the 0.6910 asian low at the 38.2% fib, then bounced; mid-Asia price sits at 0.6921, pinned to the EMA20, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69308
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6910 asian low exposes the 50% fib near 0.6905 and the 0.6900 round number
M15 close above the 0.6924 asian high reopens the 0.6931 monday high
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6913–0.6925 holding inside the NY spike.
Late-NY spike from the 0.6911 spike base to a 0.6930 NY high came as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes and weighed on USD. Asia has since held a 0.6913–0.6925 range below that high; demand stepped in at the 0.6913 asian low near the 78.6% fib, and price is now mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.69133, 0.69106, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69249, 0.69305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6925 asian high reopens the 0.6930 NY high
Failure at the 0.6913 asian low exposes the 0.6911 spike base and full retrace of the spike
Loss of the spike base puts the 0.6900 round number in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; Asia higher low at 0.6913.
Monday's London low at 0.6879 started a HH/HL chain that topped at the 0.6931 day high late in the NY session, as oil-driven USD selling lifted AUD. Early Asia pulled back to 0.6913, a retest of the breakout area that held above the 38.2% fib and the rising support. The bounce has price back at the top of the Asian range.
Support: 0.69133, 0.69106
Resistance: 0.69305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 day high extends the HH sequence
Loss of the 0.6913 Asian low and rising support exposes the 0.6911 NY base; a break there ends the HL chain
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift the USD leg ahead of US CPI at 13:30 UTC
01:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.69214
Post-rally consolidation inside 0.69133–0.69238 Asian range.
The oil-led USD slide carried AUD/USD from the London low at 0.68793 to a NY session high of 0.69305. Early Asia faded it to 0.69133, where the latest bar rejected the Asian low and closed back above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 49. Price sits inside the 0.69133–0.69238 Asian range, holding above the day rally's 23.6% retrace (~0.6918) and the rising support from the London low.
Support: 0.69133, 0.69106, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69305
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69133 asian low breaks rising support and exposes the 0.69106 spike base, then the 0.6900 round number
Close above the 0.69238 asian high reopens the 0.69305 session high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia pullback · RSI 37 · price 0.69158
Post-breakout pullback retesting the 0.6911–0.6915 shelf; lower highs through early Asia.
Late NY broke out of the 0.6911–0.6915 shelf and ran to a 0.6930 day high, helped by broad USD softness as oil slid on Iran de-escalation headlines. Early Asia has faded from the 0.6924 Asian high back into that breakout zone, printing a 0.6913 Asian low. Price is below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 37. The 38.2% fib of the 0.6879–0.6930 rally lines up with the 0.6911 shelf low.
Support: 0.69133, 0.69106
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69305
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6911 shelf low turns the retest into a failed breakout
Reclaiming the 0.6924 Asian high puts the 0.6930 day high back in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC later today could reset this read
Late-NY breakout above 0.6915, Asia printing lower highs.
A late-NY breakout on broad USD softness from Iran de-escalation lifted the pair to the 0.6930 day high. Early Asia has printed a series of lower highs below the 0.6924 asian high and is easing toward the 0.6915 ny breakout zone, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 0.6890–0.6930 rally. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, a quiet tape.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6911
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69305
What it said to watch
Holding 0.6915 keeps the late-NY breakout intact; an M15 close below exposes the 50% fib at 0.6911
An M15 close above the 0.6924 asian high breaks the lower-high pullback line
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.69187
HH/HL chain from London low to Monday high; shallow lower-high pullback since.
Monday's London-to-NY leg lifted AUDUSD from 0.6879 to the 0.6931 Monday high as oil-led USD softness extended, with a late-NY breakout through the 0.6915 ny shelf. Early Tuesday Asia is drifting under the pullback line from the 0.6924 Asia high toward the 0.6918 Asia low, which coincides with the 23.6% retracement. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, so the ranges are tight.
Support: 0.69182, 0.6915, 0.6911
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69305
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6918 Asia low exposes the 0.6915 ny shelf, then the fib 38.2 at 0.6911 where Monday's consolidation base sits
A close back above the 0.6924 Asia high and the pullback line reopens the 0.6931 Monday high
NAB/Westpac surveys in Asia, Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below NY high · RSI 47 · price 0.6919
HH/HL chain from London low; tight Asian range under NY high.
Monday's oil-led USD softness carried AUD/USD up from the 0.6879 London low to a 0.6931 NY high. Price then drifted into the rollover. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.6918–0.6924 band, sitting on the 23.6% retracement of that rally with RSI(14) near 47 and price below EMA20. The 38.2% fib at 0.6911, the NY pre-breakout base, is the next reference below.
Support: 0.6918, 0.6911, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6918 Asia low exposes the 0.6911 38.2% fib, then the 0.6900 round number
A close above the 0.6924 Asia high puts the 0.6931 NY high back in play
NAB/Westpac surveys today and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low; shallow pullback consolidating 0.6918–0.6924.
A 19:30 UTC impulse in late NY extended the higher-high chain to a 0.6931 session high as USD gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and yields. Price has since drifted into early Asia, holding the 0.6918 post-NY low under the 0.6924 NY floor. The prior high at 0.6915 and the rising trendline from the London low, near the 50% retracement at 0.6913, sit below.
Support: 0.69184, 0.69151, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69305
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6915 prior high and the trendline near 0.6913 breaks the higher-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.6924 NY floor reopens the 0.6931 session high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read